2015-16 Team compared to recent history?

[Deeringfish]

I was wondering if some of you guys who know the team well and understand BB better than I (that would be a lot of people so don't be shy) would compare how you see this years squad measuring up to past squads, position by position.

For example at center we can assume Alex will be better than last year and better than his prior year plus the addition of JvZ makes this the strongest team at center in at least 5 years and maybe quite a bit longer. My limited BB knowledge keeps me from going on RE other positions and past history but you get the idea.

I don't want to diminish past or present players and talk about their short falls but I think it would be ok to say you like one NU player better and say why.

 

[Walker Fan]

One of the big issues that Collins has addressed is the depth issue and the fact that we have had big time limitations at the PF and C positions. So one obvious distinction is that we now have two experienced centers in Senior Alex Olah and Senior JvZ. We have depth and more talent at PF in Aaron Falzon, Gavin Skelly and Nate Taphorn. Then we have a sixth big guy in Dererk Pardon who won a state title and appears to have good athleticism from the glimpses I have seen and the reports that I have read. So we have six guys who will be able to play C and PF while in past years we had players playing out of position (Shurna had to play PF and try to guard PFs like Jared Sullinger who outweighed him by 45 pds. or more). Another example, is that we had to play a 6'5" player in Lumpkin having to play extensive minutes v. PFs like Iowa's 6'9" Gabe Olseheni who had 3-4 inches and 35-45 lbs. on him. Also, now we have athletic bigs (JvZ and hopefully, Skelly and Falzon) who can cover bigs who can hit outside shots like UW's Kaminsky where in the past few years, we had only Olah who lacks the lateral quickness to jump out of the paint and defend bigs who could shoot. Another example of a player who killed the 'cats the past two seasons is UNL's Walter Pitchford who killed the 'cats camping out 15-18 feet away from the hoop and hitting jumpers particularly two years ago when NU lost at home to UNL in a tight game after NU was coming off a three game Big 10 winning streak. So in the front court, NU should be at a much better position to compete than over the past 3-5 years.

 

[VirginiaWildcat]

A paper, you can't compare any former squad with our current group. The true issue here is performing on the court...

 

[hdhntr1]

I was wondering if some of you guys who know the team well and understand BB better than I (that would be a lot of people so don't be shy) would compare how you see this years squad measuring up to past squads, position by position.

For example at center we can assume Alex will be better than last year and better than his prior year plus the addition of JvZ makes this the strongest team at center in at least 5 years and maybe quite a bit longer. My limited BB knowledge keeps me from going on RE other positions and past history but you get the idea.

I don't want to diminish past or present players and talk about their short falls but I think it would be ok to say you like one NU player better and say why.

At the 4 and 5 spots, we are the strongest we have been in a long time. Since Hardy and Esch at the respective positions (I count Shurna as a 3 that was playing at 4 because someone had to play the position. At PG, on paper we are at a comparable level with the best we have had in the position (Tony Parker and Michael Thompson) but still need to see it on the court. .At the 2/3 position, it is open to debate at this point. Years past, we have had Crawford, Shurna, Koble, Cobb, Doyle, etc so the jury is still out whether this group will equal or exceed what we have seen in the past.

 

[Walker Fan]

Okay, we can say that Olah has developed into a better player than he was as a freshman and sophomore and same thing with Tre. We can say that there are more talented and taller PFs and Cs to compete in one of the top two conferences in the nation. And we can say that there are more options for Coach Collins to use all throughout his roster after two of his recruiting classes are able to play this season. Just imagine after he gets four of his recruiting classes out on the floor. It should be fun to watch.

 

[Sec.112]

Like most NU teams, there are a load of "ifs" that will determine if there's a measure of success in '15-'16. IF Olah improves ... IF Demps scores more consistently ... IF BMac improves ... IF Falzon is a scorer at the next level.

There's question marks on all these guys. I always hate teams loaded with those "if" statements for your top options.

OTOH, all the team needs is just a tad bit of offensive improvement - not a lot - from Olah, Demps and BMac, and there will be an awfully interesting foundation this year. Can one of these guys become a reliable, night-in and night-out performer?

A few other thoughts:

1) How does the group improve its defense? It's vital, and BMac and Olah concern me in m2m.
2) When you look at last year, your next "options" on offense after Demps, BMac and Olah were Law and sometimes - if they were lucky - some mixture of Cobb, Lindsey and Taphorn. If someone can become pretty reliable fourth scorer, that would be HUGE gap to fill. You could see the difference in the few times Cobb was healthy and aggressive.
3) If I MUST compare to previous teams, successful NU teams always had those two guys you could depend on. I'm not sure this group has those guys right now, but I might be able to be talked out of that idea.

However, beyond the "go-to" players, I think the 3-6 players are potentially MUCH stronger than past NU teams.

Can that make a difference if the go-to guys aren't as strong? I'll let someone else answer that.

 

[NJCat83588]

I was wondering if some of you guys who know the team well and understand BB better than I (that would be a lot of people so don't be shy) would compare how you see this years squad measuring up to past squads, position by position.

For example at center we can assume Alex will be better than last year and better than his prior year plus the addition of JvZ makes this the strongest team at center in at least 5 years and maybe quite a bit longer. My limited BB knowledge keeps me from going on RE other positions and past history but you get the idea.

I don't want to diminish past or present players and talk about their short falls but I think it would be ok to say you like one NU player better and say why.

Best team I saw was the 1982-83 NIT team. Position by position:

Michael Jenkins - BMac: Jenkins. Experienced, smart PG.
Gaddis Rathel - Tre Demps: Demps, much better scorer
Art Aaron - Vic Law - Aaron, went down as one of the all time leading scorers at NU
Jim Stack - JvZ: Stack, another all time great at NU
Andre Goode - Olah: Toss-up. Olah the better scorer, Goode much better at shot blocking, rebounding and defending

Bench: the 2015-16 team by a mile. The '82-83 squad was really limited, the current team distinguishes itself by how deep it goes.

So the '83-84 starters were better, but the weak bench hurt the team. Combine the '83 starters with Lindsey, Taphorn, Ash, Falzon and Pardon and you have a sure bet tournament team.

 

[Smokejumper]

A paper, you can't compare any former squad with our current group. The true issue here is performing on the court...

Maybe not recent history, but on paper one of fosters squads had both the talent and depth to compare...

Schwabe, ross and Peterson at center
lambiotte and Reece at the pf
Nixon, and broth at the three
Walters and gross at the two
Holmes and Ross at the pg

Oh what could have been without the injuries etc

 

[Gladeskat]

Sec. 112 touched on this, but the one thing I think we lack compared to past teams is a guy who can go off for 25-35 points with their outside shooting. If Shurna, Coble or Crawford were hot, look out! Upsets against Michigan State, Wisconsin and Michigan. Hopefully BMac, Demps, Tap or someone else can develop into great 3-point shooters who can have big nights. Otherwise, we can make the tourney with the guys we have if we pay solid defense and rebound well.

 

[rwhitney014]

Sec. 112 touched on this, but the one thing I think we lack compared to past teams is a guy who can go off for 25-35 points with their outside shooting. If Shurna, Coble or Crawford were hot, look out! Upsets against Michigan State, Wisconsin and Michigan. Hopefully BMac, Demps, Tap or someone else can develop into great 3-point shooters who can have big nights. Otherwise, we can make the tourney with the guys we have if we pay solid defense and rebound well.

For this year, I think Demps has to be that guy. He's capable of scoring in bunches, but he has to cut down on the long stretches of not hitting shots.

However, a big difference that this roster could provide compared to prior ones, at least since the Juice/Coble teams that got this run going, is that guys like Law, Lindsey and JVZ - not necessarily the first options - have the athleticism and ball skills to get to the rim and score around the basket. If we're more effective on the interior because of that added element, then defenses can't stay out on shooters quite as aggressively. Another half-second of an open look might make it easier for Demps, Mac, Tap, Falzon and other shooters to hit shots with more regularity.

 

[NUCat320]

For this year, I think Demps has to be that guy. He's capable of scoring in bunches, but he has to cut down on the long stretches of not hitting shots.

However, a big difference that this roster could provide compared to prior ones, at least since the Juice/Coble teams that got this run going, is that guys like Law, Lindsey and JVZ - not necessarily the first options - have the athleticism and ball skills to get to the rim and score around the basket. If we're more effective on the interior because of that added element, then defenses can't stay out on shooters quite as aggressively. Another half-second of an open look might make it easier for Demps, Mac, Tap, Falzon and other shooters to hit shots with more regularity.

I just will comment that I'm much more comfortable with "there are still a lot of things wrong with this team" thread than I am with "I think we're probably headed to at least the round of 32" threads.

I think depth is overrated - until it's needed. Great teams don't go more than 8 deep anyway, in many circumstances. It's great if your tenth man is a creditable player, but that player's role is typically in garbage time, or foul trouble or injury.

So, then you look at the top eight - a backup guard, a backup forward, and a backup center. And 1-8, NU's current roster has great potential, better 1-8 than anything since I've followed NU (approaching 20 years). I don't think NU's 1-3 - based on what we've seen - could be as good as the Juice-Shurna-Crawford trifecta (a trifecta, that, we should realize, fell short of goals).

I *think* there's a chance that there'll be a point where I prefer B-Mac to Juice, but I don't think Demps (at least in minutes 1-39) could ever compare to Crawford, and I doubt this year's JVZ/Falzon/Law could compare to any equivalent level of Shurna. Of course, I do prefer Olah to whichever center I've already forgotten from those teams, and there'll probably be a point where I prefer Law/Lindsey to what Cobb wound up being at NU.

I'm not sure this makes sense. Point is, the potential is there. But it's only potential until ... it's productivity. And we have no idea what that productivity might become.

 

[NJCat83588]

I just will comment that I'm much more comfortable with "there are still a lot of things wrong with this team" thread than I am with "I think we're probably headed to at least the round of 32" threads..

I agree with you. I do think you are overplaying the optimism from some posters however. I don't recall many if any "round of 32" threads, with the possible hyperbole from one person. Most of the optimistic posts I recall are along the lines of "this COULD be the year NU finally makes it", not "nu WILL make it this year". So while this may not be the strongest team at the top of the roster, one thing I have learned about NU basketball is, injuries happen, and lack of depth has killed NU at the end of most seasons.

 

[shakes3858]

I think depth is overrated - until it's needed. Great teams don't go more than 8 deep anyway, in many circumstances. It's great if your tenth man is a creditable player, but that player's role is typically in garbage time, or foul trouble or injury.

Guys that played significant time last year
1. Olah
2. Lumpkin
3. Law
4. Demps
5. McIntosh
6. Sobo
7. Lindsey
8. Taphorn
9. Cobb when healthy
10. Kriesburg (6.5 minutes) in the beginning Skelly (7.2 minutes) at the end

So yes, we did go 9-10 deep based on Cobb's health. Wisconsin went 9 deep (lowest 6.3). Iowa went 10 deep (lowest 9.7). Maryland went 10 deep (lowest 11.3 minutes). MSU went 11 deep (lowest 7.6 minutes). The time you want to limit depth is when the top of the team is much better than the bottom. This happened when we had Shurna, Crawford, and Juice with Nick Fruendt backing up Juice and I think a 6-4 Reggie Hearn moving over to PF when Shurna came out of the game for 3 minutes a night... or was it a 6-5 Drew Crawford? Trust me depth is a great thing. Great teams don't go more than 8 deep. They might in the tournament, but all year long they're going 9-10 deep.

Almost as important is the practice situation. We've got at least 10 guys that can play. What does that mean? You can scrimmage. You can go 1s vs 2s without 1s making the 2s look like a high school team. Olah can work on moves against Johan Van Zegeren and Pardon. I'm a Sobo fan, but he lacked the lateral quickness of a Big Ten point guard, and McIntosh didn't get to practice against a Big Ten quality defender . Now he to compete every day with Ash guarding him. Ash is bigger than Vasser and quicker than Sobo. This gives McIntosh a tougher test every day.

 

[Walker Fan]

I think depth is an improvement on this year's squad, but increased size and athleticism is a bigger improvement. If you look closely at the end of close games last season, you need to be able to clamp down defensively and hit shots in the closing minutes of games. Too many times, teams could bully us down low (e.g. Brandon Dawson throwing our PFs around and Dez Wells flying over J.Cobb on rebounds, and Egwu outjumping Olah in the UofI home game, Olsheni outsizing Lump, Petteway hitting threes because of guards stuck in a 2-3 zone and not getting out and contesting threes). Now, fingers crossed, we have more athletic guys who can grab rebounds and contest shots and hit shots as the game winds down to put us over the top and if the starters are off, now we have guys who can provide some of that athleticism off the bench like JvZ, Skelly, Tap and Lindsey where we did not have that before.

 

[NJCat83588]

if the starters are off, now we have guys who can provide some of that athleticism off the bench like JvZ, Skelly, Tap and Lindsey where we did not have that before.

Uh, Skelly, Tap and Lindsey DID come off the bench last season..........

 

[hdhntr1]

Uh, Skelly, Tap and Lindsey DID come off the bench last season..........

But they were Frosh. Whole lot different with a year in the system hopefully.

 

[Pulmocat]

I think depth is an improvement on this year's squad, but increased size and athleticism is a bigger improvement. If you look closely at the end of close games last season, you need to be able to clamp down defensively and hit shots in the closing minutes of games. Too many times, teams could bully us down low (e.g. Brandon Dawson throwing our PFs around and Dez Wells flying over J.Cobb on rebounds, and Egwu outjumping Olah in the UofI home game, Olsheni outsizing Lump, Petteway hitting threes because of guards stuck in a 2-3 zone and not getting out and contesting threes). Now, fingers crossed, we have more athletic guys who can grab rebounds and contest shots and hit shots as the game winds down to put us over the top and if the starters are off, now we have guys who can provide some of that athleticism off the bench like JvZ, Skelly, Tap and Lindsey where we did not have that before.

If Van Zegeren doesn't drastically improve his free throw shooting he will not be on the floor at the end of the game unless we have all our timeouts available for serial substitutions.