How did our program fall apart?

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

EvanMiya CBB Analytics

Advanced college basketball analytics, home of the Bayesian Performance Rating

evanmiya.com

That's me who does not like stats. But I found this guy interesting

thats phenomenal. Thanks for posting.

 

[Katatonic]

Almost everyone considers Pete Nance an excellent stretch 4 who can really shoot.

I hope that Collins never again blunders as badly as he did last year when it came to Pete Nance - playing him out of position at the 5, forcing him to defend bigger players, wearing him out for no reason. He was, is and will always be a stretch 4. And we had a decent center (Young) and a raw backup (Nicholson) - it was a perfect set-up roster-wise. And Collins squandered it completely.

Not saying that Pete wasn't a good player last season or that he wasn't misused, but he was a late bloomer (wasn't a good 3pt shooter during his 1st 2 seasons) and despite his very good season overall, he still tended to not be as big of a factor too many times.

In Shurna's last season (in conference play), John was only held to 10 or fewer points just once.

Pete was held to 10 or fewer points 7 times.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Not saying that Pete wasn't a good player last season or that he wasn't misused, but he was a late bloomer (wasn't a good 3pt shooter during his 1st 2 seasons) and despite his very good season overall, he still tended to not be as big of a factor too many times.

In Shurna's last season (in conference play), John was only held to 10 or fewer points just once.

Pete was held to 10 or fewer points 7 times.

I only see 4 games where Nance scored 10 or less in conference last year.

Here are some of Pete's performance stats for Big Ten games only...

	EFG%	Usage%	OReb%	DReb%	Asst%	3Rate	3FG%
2019-20	.443	21.9	5.1	20.8	12.0	39.6	27.0
2020-21	.561	21.6	3.6	24.7	14.1	31.0	34.0
2021-22	.551	24.8	3.9	20.7	18.5	31.4	46.2

EFG is effective Field Goal Percentage - it accounts for 3's being worth more.
Usage% is the percent of the time he tried to score when on the court (or turned it over)
OReb% is the percent of time when he got an offensive rebound.
Asst% is the percentage of time he got credited with an assist.
3Rate is the percentage of his shots that were 3 point attempts.
3FG% is made 3 pointers / 3 point attempts.

Nance's Offensive rebounding was quite poor. His Asst% improved nicely and was quite good as a senior. His shooting touch dramatically improved as a junior. His 3 point shooting became elite as a senior... but he still only shot from beyond the arc 31% of the time. In other words NU/nance did not really adjust to capitalize on Nance's superb 3 point shooting.

Here are the team's stats from last year. Audige is clearly a huge problem on offense
.

Player	EFG%	Usage%	OReb%	DReb%	Asst%	3Rate	3FG%
Nance	55.1	24.8	3.9	20.7	18.5	31.4	46.2
Young	49.6	25.8	11.2	19.2	13.0	5.1	16.7
Buie	47.3	25.8	2.2	9.1	27.8	46.4	34.2
Audige	40.1	25.0	4.9	13.0	14.9	42.3	25.0
Beran	54.3	14.9	4.2	17.5	3.8	55.2	37.9
Berry	50.8	17.8	0.5	12.0	6.7	70.2	36.5
Roper	41.0	11.3	5.4	14.4	5.7	41.8	32.1
Greer	40.8	11.3	2.0	8.8	18.9	31.7	36.8

 

[ballerog711]

Chase and Boo have to improve his shot selection.
Ty and Robbie need to more comsistant with his shot. Get in the gym and work on it.
Roper needs to use his athleticism, he should 6 to 8 points per game by getting out on the break.