My neverending quest to figure out this team

[CappyNU]

So I went looking through conference data over the 8 Collins seasons to try and understand what this team is missing, and what aspects of the game correlate best to our success (success is a relative term here, for example "good" offense for us is middle-of-the-pack B1G).

Heading into this season, the strongest correlation to a good Collins offense was higher eFG% (R-sq 0.77) and higher offensive rebounding rate (0.75). Turnover %, Free Throw Rate % and Tempo had no correlation. On the reverse side, we had higher steal% (0.67), higher turnover% (0.58), lower eFG% (0.57), and counter-intuitively, higher free throw rate % (0.61). Lower opponent rebounding rate and higher tempo had weak correlation, and block % had no correlation.

This year, we have the second-best shooting team under Collins, and the worst offensive-rebounding team by far. Our offensive efficiency is 5th. I went to look at how many of our players over the years have had an offensive rebounding % (accounting for minutes played) of at least 5.0%.

Year	Players
2014	Lumpkin, Olah, Cerina
2015	Law, Skelly, Olah, Kreisberg
2016	Pardon, Falzon, Skelly, Lumpkin, Van Zegeren
2017	Benson, Pardon, Skelly
2018	Benson, Pardon, Skelly
2019	Benson, Pardon
2020	Jones, Beran, Nance, Young
2021	Young

What happened to our ability to get offensive rebounds? Is it a change in coaching philosophy? Moving to the 5-out? Normally one sacrifices offensive rebounds to get a better edge on defense. Well, our defense sucks, so that's not working. They need to crash the glass more.

On defense, the additions of Audige and Berry have resulted in our best turnover and steal numbers under Collins. Heading into this year, that was a sure sign that we would have a decent defense. The increased numbers there have been massively offset by the worst eFG% under Collins and it's not close. Teams shoot 54.9% against us and the 2nd-worst Collins team was 2018, when teams shot 50.7% against us.

The other odd thing I noticed is that our block percentage has been cut in half from last year. Heading into this season, we had blocked between 8.7%-12.1% of shots, with only 1 season under 10%. This year? 4.9%. Last year Nance (4.4), Beran (3.6), Jones (6.0) and Young (3.0) all had block percentages of 3.0 or higher. This year? Nance leads the way at 1.9%, and teams are shooting 55.3% from 2 against us. 2nd-worst 2-pt shooting percentage was 51.4% in 2018. What's going on here that the same three players who were all top-20 in conference in block percentage have fallen off so much?

So that's a couple areas that jumped out at me. Offensive rebounding and aggressive 2-point defense contesting shots.

 

[TheC]

So, wait.... did you solve it then??

 

[GatoLouco]

The 5 out that you mention does not seem to me that much different from other seasons. I still cringe with the image of Pardon at the top of the key, over and over again doing dribble hand offs. So I tend to believe the problem on the glass is not derived from it.

To me is more having chosen to go at it with a player, Nance, who is not an interior player. I'm confident the numbers for this season would look different if Young was used 25-30 minutes. That also explains a lot the block situation. Last year we often even used Beran/Nance/Young. Size matters

 

[CappyNU]

So, wait.... did you solve it then??

I wish, but that's up to the coaches and players to figure out. The other thing I didn't mention here is the drastic increase in strength of schedule over the past few years.

Year	Strength of Schedule	Conference Rank	Tourney Teams
2014	15.74 (2nd)	2	6/12
2015	14.34 (2nd)	4	7/14
2016	10.56 (12th)	5	7/14
2017	12.18 (12th)	4	7/14
2018	13.82 (6th)	5	4/14
2019	16.23 (7th)	2	8/14
2020	17.32 (2nd)	1	10/14 (projected)
2021	23.53 (1st)	1	TBD

The Big Ten of the past 3 seasons is not the Big Ten of the previous 5. Obviously that doesn't excuse the results we're seeing, and it possibly even puts those 20-win seasons into context, though I'll never take away the fact that Collins made the tourney.

 

[Styre]

I wish, but that's up to the coaches and players to figure out. The other thing I didn't mention here is the drastic increase in strength of schedule over the past few years.

Year	Strength of Schedule	Conference Rank	Tourney Teams
2014	15.74 (2nd)	2	6/12
2015	14.34 (2nd)	4	7/14
2016	10.56 (12th)	5	7/14
2017	12.18 (12th)	4	7/14
2018	13.82 (6th)	5	4/14
2019	16.23 (7th)	2	8/14
2020	17.32 (2nd)	1	10/14 (projected)
2021	23.53 (1st)	1	TBD

The Big Ten of the past 3 seasons is not the Big Ten of the previous 5. Obviously that doesn't excuse the results we're seeing, and it possibly even puts those 20-win seasons into context, though I'll never take away the fact that Collins made the tourney.

2018 looks even worse with that context. Yikes.

And yes, the 2016 schedule was a total joke. There's a reason we didn't even make the NIT with 20 wins. But I'd still take that over what we're watching now.

 

[CappyNU]

The 5 out that you mention does not seem to me that much different from other seasons. I still cringe with the image of Pardon at the top of the key, over and over again doing dribble hand offs. So I tend to believe the problem on the glass is not derived from it.

To me is more having chosen to go at it with a player, Nance, who is not an interior player. I'm confident the numbers for this season would look different if Young was used 25-30 minutes. That also explains a lot the block situation. Last year we often even used Beran/Nance/Young. Size matters

That's a fair point, and may go part of the way to explaining it. Last year, we used Beran/Nance at the 4 and Young/Jones at the 5 for 34:30 mpg (though Beran/Nance/Young or Jones only averaged 3:30 mpg), and this year it's only 10 mpg with Beran or Nance at the 4 and Young at the 5.

 

[CappyNU]

2018 looks even worse with that context. Yikes.

And yes, the 2016 schedule was a total joke. There's a reason we didn't even make the NIT with 20 wins. But I'd still take that over what we're watching now.

Yeah, for me 2018 is definitely the biggest disappointment of the whole tenure.

 

[willycat]

That's a fair point, and may go part of the way to explaining it. Last year, we used Beran/Nance at the 4 and Young/Jones at the 5 for 34:30 mpg (though Beran/Nance/Young or Jones only averaged 3:30 mpg), and this year it's only 10 mpg with Beran or Nance at the 4 and Young at the 5.

Maybe they miss Jones more then they or anyone thought they would.

 

[GatoLouco]

Maybe they miss Jones more then they or anyone thought they would.

Before the Purdue game Young was getting 10 minutes, occasionally a bit more because Beran or Nance were in foul trouble. So what makes you think Jones would be playing at all?

 

[CappyNU]

Before the Purdue game Young was getting 10 minutes, occasionally a bit more because Beran or Nance were in foul trouble. So what makes you think Jones would be playing at all?

Jones is barely playing for Middle Tennessee, and I can't find any news about injuries, so no, I don't think Jones is the missing piece of the puzzle here.

 

[NUCat320]

McIntosh was a floor slapper.
No floor slappers on this roster.

Defense is the second-most important part of the game for everybody on this roster except Gaines.

The team was coached to run and chuck and outscore, and it’s not good enough for that.

 

[CatJones]

Our strength of schedule in the BIG10 is high, in part, because we don’t get to play us.