Opening line Stanford -13
- Thread starter TejasCat
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Yeah, but we're replacing our starting QB, two of our most productive WRs, and two starters from an OL that was largely underwhelming last season. I can understand that line, though I wouldn't bet it either way. Seeing is believing. The Cats need to prove themselves before they start getting respect from Vegas this year.
Early season college football spreads offer the best opportunity for informed bettors to take advantage of market inefficiencies. I understand that line at this stage. My guess is that it comes down closer to 7 by the time opening day comes around.
I have mixed feelings about what will happen. No doubt, Thorson will be solid, but the question is how long will it take for him to taste, digest, and be comfortable with the system? As long as we can see the future and there is some progress then we should be fine. 5-7 may not be a bad year since we are transitioning with a new QB. I remember when Kustoc started his first several games, even though we only won a few, we could clearly see the future and that it looked promising.
The Stanford line is about right, imo. This isn't going to be a 3 headed QB opening season game like Air Force when Baz, Webb, and Stauss all were thrown in. My bet is that we are sticking with Thorson for 80% of the plays, spelling him with Alviti to show a different look, and we will take our lumps this year against top teams but progress and learn. I want us to beat Stanford but if we can stay reasonably close with Thorson's first start then I think we have to like that. I know that sounds non-purple like but Stanford is a program that has been consistent of late and our Coaches will have their hands full developing a whole new OL and a QB. Doesn't matter if Fitz/McCall are great coaches or not, it's a terribly tough assignment to place on a brand new OL and QB.
At any rate, I want this program to be reborn and that means we have to be willing to sweat out the infant stage. 5 wins will be good, considering we have really tough OOC teams like Duke and Stanford. Winning two OOC, and 3 BIG with a freshman QB and brand new OL, imo, will be a par coaching job. If Fitz can win 6 games then he did a good job at coaching. If he can win 7 with this team, then he did a helluva job. I have a really hard time wondering how we are going to score points. It still comes down to trusting our OL and WR, and those are the two biggest weaknesses on our team. And now with a redshirt freshman at QB? Things are too heavy this year imo
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It's NU. As we have seen, they could as easily be 9-3 or 8-4 as 4-8. I don't expect to win any individual games anymore (except the D-IIs of the world), and especially not preseason.
That said, yes, if you're betting Northwestern, take those 13 points NOW.
That said, yes, if you're betting Northwestern, take those 13 points NOW.
Sorry, Turk, but 5 wins is never a "good" season when one of the 5 wins is a Div IAA team. Particularly when 3 of the previous 4 years have been losing seasons. Another 5 win season would be depressing. Par to me has to be 6 wins, showing improvement in the only thing that matters, Wins.
aaaannnnndddd what is your comment if Oliver is the QB and basically starts every game? I won't be shocked at all, given this staff.
Has it been determined that Thorson is going to be the starting QB? While Oliver has been underwhelming, he has little real game experience and only one week with number one team. I would not be surprised either way.
That could happen and Oliver will certainly have something to say about it, but, imo, for that to happen, Oliver has to separate himself. Not sure he has done that.
Putting stock in a player that is just 'at par' with those who have 4 more years of playing doesn't make sense to me unless he has really separated himself from the pack. If that happens, then give Oliver the nod. If it doesn't, then why bother if he will be gone anyways? All that would do is shelve the inevitable and keep precious experience from Thorson/Alviti.
Why would that be a surprise considering we have no idea what to expect out of the most important position on the field.
Yeah, I know that sounds bad, i.e., 5 wins. But we are in a jam. exactly who are we going to beat to get to 6 wins? I gotta think we will be big dogs to Stanford and Duke. So let's figure 2 OOC wins. That leaves us with trying to pick up 4 BIG wins??? I hope we can attain that but I think the last two years had more experience on our team and we still couldn't get to par in the BIG. Granted we don't play MSU or OSU but I gotta figure we will be dogs in every game other than Purdue and maybe Illinois? Maybe we can upset Minny but they are well coached and on the upswing. Dunno but if we bag 3 wins in the BIG, I'll be content.
I would say that there are a few BIG winnable games as many of our opponents will be in a bit of disarray. Wisconsin has another new HC and lost a bit, we generally play IA pretty close, and even though Harbaugh is good, this is his first year so maybe we catch them. I can see 4 BIG wins and maybe 5 and 2-3 OOC. Depends on who comes to play and develops.
As someone who has been an "informed" individual prone to betting and over the years very successful, I would agree and disagree with your statement. As you know the number posted has nothing to do with the actual game, but simply a number to get both sides of bettors to bet the game evenly. If the handle on the game is even, the casino or book wins because of the "Juice."
I guessed long before the number came out somewhere between 12.5 to 13.5 minus for Stanford. This game will NOT go anywhere near -7. At this point in time Stanford is a vastly superior school to NU in literally every phase of their program. Better coaches, better facilities, better players and of course better weather.
The conference they play in has also been much improved of late as well. Although I would argue with OSU being the national champion and Harbaugh now at Michigan that the Big Ten has made an enormous jump of late.
Fact is that I would be extremely surprised is this game gets under -10. More than likely I see this in the -10.5 to -12.5. The one thing traditionally that the Cat's have going for them, is that they usually fair pretty well as a dog during the Fitzgerald and Walker years. However, it is my opinion that they are much better road dog than home dog.
As for my betting last year regarding the Cat's. After 2013 and the pounding of a lifetime I took with perhaps the worst "beat" I have ever seen on the OSU game, I stayed away from the Cat's. I bet only one game last year with them and that was the Purdue game which was an utter steal. I would have taken them against Illinois had Trevor been healthy, but thank goodness I did not bet that game.
As a closing note, if anyone wants to bet me that the Stanford game gets under 10 points by kickoff, as the famous line states, "I'll take that bet!" Go Cat's!
Quarterback uncertainty for the Cats is the BIGGEST reason for this line! By contrast, Hogan will be in his third year as starter there for the Cardinal. One thing we need to do this year is get back to winning more at home. We've been a really good road team thru almost all of Fitz's tenure but seem to have lost the touch of winning at Ryan Field (ONE BT win there the last two seasons!). That must change for us to have a successful season this year and Sept. 5 is a good time to start!
I am a novice at gambling so you are probably right about the line. If The line line does turn out to be above 10, then it proves my original point that early season lines are driven more by perception than informed analysis. knowing they were on our schedule for the following season, I watched Stanford pretty closely late last year. They are a good team but I think that the decline that folks anticipated when Harbaugh left started to occur last year. They just are not the dominant team they were a few years ago. Hogan is a good QB but they lost a lot on defense from last year. Combine this with the confidence I have that Thorson will emerge and play well, and you can see why I will be putting some shekels on my Cats if they are a 10+ point dog at home for the Stanfors game.
Corbi very salient points made. Remember though that in many cases because Las Vegas where I live is more proximic to the west coast and often in ncaa football there is a betting bias. Stanford is not as good as they were but neither are we unfortunately. I like our backs on both sides of the ball. But or qb at this point is all on promise our o line is not good the linebackers in transition and or d line is questionable. If kuhar and mc are back and ready I really like our defensive unit especially our backfield, in fact I can't remember a time when I have felt so good about the d backfield. If niswander can punt well and deep that will be another plus. But Stanford is still big and physical and mcaffery sp? Is a complete stud on O. He will kill us if we can't get a pass rush. I always want us to win but with a huge question mark at qb I just don't see it possible. On the other hand is Thorson can THAT good and be mobile it could be a vastly different story. Thorson though also scares me because it looks like he might snap in half, he's awfully skinny.
While most folks don't have a clue about Thorson other than what they have read, I have the benefit of having seen this kid play and develop over the course of his senior year in HS. I believe he is the goods and I'd be shocked if he does not end up starting and performing very well. I have more concerns about some of the supporting cast than I do about Thorson. I think it is very legitimate to view Stanford as a solid favorite going into the game, I just don't think a double digit spread is justified with NU playing at home with the benefit of a whole off season to prepare. Knowing what I know about Stanford and NU, if the Stanford is giving 10 or more points going into the game I am betting heavy on NU>
I know this statement shouldn't bother me, but it does. In Fitz's nine seasons as HC, he's gone 4-8 once, and that was in his first year. That was the worst season of his tenure. He's gone 9-3 twice and 8-4 once. The last two years have sucked, and his teams still went 5-7. I think there's just too much talent on the roster this year to lose 8 games, even with a tougher OOC schedule. They went 5-7 the last two years with a whole bunch of injuries and bad luck (e.g. Hail Mary). I think 5-7 is the floor this year, and 9-3 is the ceiling.
Just be careful Corbi I just think that NU is far too enigmatic to bet on a regular basis. I will tell you this my friend, I made a TON of money on NU in 1995 and again in 2012. The only game I missed was the Miami of Ohio game because I couldn't get the bet in on time and I would have lost anyway. I love the Cat's and while I did not attend there, I went to Ferris State on a hockey scholarship, I have always followed the Cat's because winning was so hard there.
I was there when the goalposts were torn down when they beat Boston College ans many times both before then and after. In face I actually saw the Bears beat the Eagles at Dyke way back in the early 70s. All this said I really want the Cat's to win and I know that Thorson is really fast and mobile, but he is a freshman with would should be a less than superior offensive line. I believe the receivers will be better this year and our running backs are outstanding. Going forward I think that Moten is the real deal. But with Jackson, Long and now Anderson we should be dynamic in that department and with a mobile QB with a good arm, this year should a year where a lot could happen.
So while I think we may get destroyed by Stanford I sure will be of course rooting very hard for beloved Cat's!
Frankly, as I don't gamble, I couldn't care less about the line on the game. What would the odds on NU reaching the Rose Bowl in 1995 have been? Given the past few years, I'd say Stanford should be favored. But it simply boils down to either we beat them or we don't. Win or lose, I'll just be interested in watching the game to see if we're going to have a viable team this year.
While I'm hoping that Thorson wins the job, I have heard from a pretty good source that Oliver is considered #1 at this time.
Now that's not a very nice thing to say. Oliver's the only one of the three with any real game experience (at least in throwing the ball). As talented as Thorson might be, it would be a really difficult task for him to come out and be successful against a team like Stanford. Oliver had a bad (ok, very bad) first half against Illinois, but he played better in the second half and he's the QB on the roster with the most experience at this level. Despite what's often repeated here, the coaches will make their decision not out of some "sense of loyalty" but based on who they think gives us the best chance to beat Stanford. They see a heck of a lot more of these guys than I do, so I'll support them in whatever decision they make.
Last year, people were screaming to play Alviti instead of Siemian, and then when Matt actually got in the game, he looked.....unpolished and unprepared for the moment. Give the coaches the benefit of the doubt. If Oliver's our starting QB against Stanford, then that's because he's our best option going into that game.
I would agree with your assessment of Oliver. He looked very good against NIU and Purdue. Illinois first half was bad and second half bad. I'll say this if our offensive line is better, Oliver will be better. Our running game is legitimate now and with Anderson and his speed in play it will be even better. I think the receivers will be better as well. I have a feeling that the kid we got on signing day as a slot will start ala Jackson as s freshman and I betcha he will be very good. These things said I revert back to the line, if they can play, Oliver will be good. I will also say that although it was a small sample Alviti was very unimpressive last year,even as just a runner.
The other thing is that Oliver had all of one week with the number one unit and it was a shadow of what it was with all the injuries. That is a lot to ask. If he gets the whole preseason with the #1 unit and people are healthy, it might be a different story
The reason I am worried about oliver as qb is that we need a dual threat back there. I don't think oliver is that.
If Oliver is the quarterback and our offensive line is similar to the beginning of last year when they were healthy, then I hope that we become an excellent West Coast offense with a good mix of run and short pass with lots of draws and screens. If we try to be a 3 - 5 second drop team, then I agree that we need a more mobile quarterback that can extend plays with his legs and throw on the run.
I am sure that the coaches will start the player who gives us the best chance to win. If that is Oliver, I think that means that Thorson's development has been stunted for some reason. My reservations about Oliver are not based on his poor play in one game, they are based on my belief that he does not have the running skills necessary to make our offense multi dimensional and difficult to defend. This offense does not work without a dual threat QB and Oliver is not a dual threat QB. I'd be shocked if Oliver starts over Thorson or Alviti.
Corbi another sage point. One thing that I think we can do with someone of his size though is develop some designed play whether they be qb draws etc. all he needs to do is keep the defense honest. You see what a healthy Trevor did against ND. His runs made a huge difference. We have ALOT of playmakers now with very good speed. Our offense should focus on getting those guys the ball, quickly and in space. Brings the defense in closer and more susceptible to one of those speedy guys to get deep. I still have a very strong belief that like Jackson last year, Flynn nagel will play and more and more as the year moves on.
The QB draw is fine but space in this offense opens up when you stretch the perimeter of the line of scrimmage. If that DE or OLB does not have to worry about the QB keeping it on the read option, a big component of this offense is negated.
Well, Alviti didn't prove himself to be a dual threat, because he couldn't throw the ball effectively last year (though word is that he had a good Spring). Thorson's got dual threat talent, but he hasn't yet proven it on the field. If Oliver, as a drop back passer, is our best option in week 1, then so be it.
I see Thorson and Alviti getting us at least 8-9 wins. I love,love Jackson and can see him being drafted in the third round as a junior! Kid is a hammer and he will have support from other capable rbs!
I don't see Jackson as a hammer unless he's like me with a hammer, misstrikes the nail, and slides off to the side.
Stanford is ranked in the top 25 and is known as a power running team. NU's defense lacks the DTs to stop the inside run and lacks the pass rushing d-linemen (why hasn't Ifeadi developed yet?). Last year, NU's defense only generated 17 sacks. When NU pulled upsets v. PSU and UW, NU created some pressure and QB hits (Xavier Washington's, Walker's sacks come to mind) which led to INTs and TOs which NU needs since they can not overpower teams on the line. In our worst loss of the year v. Iowa, the Hawkeyes overpowered our defensive line. Remember when Schreff destroyed our linemen. So other than a subpar defensive line, weak offensive line and very shaky WR corps, I have a lot of confidence in this year's squad. I am hoping for a trip to a bowl, but not sure if it will happen as teams with load the box with 8 guys to control J.Jackson.
I think you nailed it. NU struggles with power teams, and the combination of a power offense with an experienced QB and a very good WR is big problems for NU, especially in the first game of the season. At least the Cats won't be overconfident!
Like I said, the lines for the early season games are driven by perception and reputation more than reality. Last year's Stanford team was not as physical as they had been in the past and they ended up losing some key OL. I think the DL will end up being a strength of our team. If Stanford thinks they are going to come in here and blow us out by running the ball down our throat, then I think they will be unpleasantly surprised. If that is their game plan and the line continues to be north of 10 points, I am putting my money where my mouth is.
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