Teams on the Rise
- Thread starter NJCat83588
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I wouldn't call it overly optimistic.
I would be extremely surprised, barring injury or other unforeseen ills (knock on wood), if we don't make it to the NCAA's this coming year. The kids are a bit older, and Olah I think will be a beast. JvZ I think is a huge asset, and I think Falzon and Pardon will further boost what has been the weakest part of the team down in the blocks. The kids are going to be older (including the sophs turned juniors). We weren't that far away this past year. Considering many of those games during the 10 game losing streak were very close.
What do we lose? Not much, relatively speaking. Sobo, a limited and injured Cobb who didn't play most of the time anyways, and the transfer from Yale who didn't really do a whole lot. Net gains in experience, JvZ, and the incoming frosh is significant. I think we'll be in the upper half of the conference in the coming season.
I'm more worried about what happens after Olah and JvZ graduate. Man, we really need Pardon to either be ready (at least after his frosh year) and even then, we really, really, need to recruit some big time post men this season. Another quality 5th year big man transfer in Collins's 4th year would be key I think.
This post was edited on 4/11 10:07 AM by EvanstonCat
I would be extremely surprised, barring injury or other unforeseen ills (knock on wood), if we don't make it to the NCAA's this coming year. The kids are a bit older, and Olah I think will be a beast. JvZ I think is a huge asset, and I think Falzon and Pardon will further boost what has been the weakest part of the team down in the blocks. The kids are going to be older (including the sophs turned juniors). We weren't that far away this past year. Considering many of those games during the 10 game losing streak were very close.
What do we lose? Not much, relatively speaking. Sobo, a limited and injured Cobb who didn't play most of the time anyways, and the transfer from Yale who didn't really do a whole lot. Net gains in experience, JvZ, and the incoming frosh is significant. I think we'll be in the upper half of the conference in the coming season.
I'm more worried about what happens after Olah and JvZ graduate. Man, we really need Pardon to either be ready (at least after his frosh year) and even then, we really, really, need to recruit some big time post men this season. Another quality 5th year big man transfer in Collins's 4th year would be key I think.
This post was edited on 4/11 10:07 AM by EvanstonCat
One minor quibble: from what I have seen on Falzon's highlight tapes, he is NOT going to play "down in the blocks", at least as a freshman. He is a terrific spot-up 3-point shooter right now. He and Tap will bring outside offense off the bench. But I seriously doubt he will spent much time "on the blocks". I like the idea of JvZ and Pardon bring the inside physicality NU has lacked like, forever.
We were very far away from the tournament this past season and to get there next season would be one of the biggest single season turnarounds by any college basketball team in recent memory. NIT should be a solid goal in what will be a stronger Big Ten.
Don't remember if it was InsideNU or LakeThePosts but there was a nice article that analyzed improvements of teams by KePom ratings and for us to go from where we were last year to the NCAA would be almost unheard of. NIT is very much within the realm of possibility. In fact, I would say not making the NIT would be disappointing and I would say that most people here, even those who hate me, would agree.
Yeah, I can't think of any team in recent memory ... oh, wait, yes I can. We'd have to go all the waaaay back to last year. Notre Dame was 15-17 (6-12) (sound familiar?) in the 2013-2014 season and managed to go 32-6 (14-4) and were a play away from the Final Four. Do we have a Jerian Grant effect next year? No, but we're not talking about a Final Four, but merely making a push for the Tourney.
Plenty of other examples out there, happens every year. Our Big Ten brethren Nebraska in 2012-2013 was 15-18 (5-13) (eerily similar) and in 2013-2014 went 19-12 (11-7). Not sure what your frame of reference is for your comments.
As far as what a solid goal should be for next year, it would be to make the Tourney. We've heard ad nauseam from you over the years that "the NIT is our ceiling" and "we'll never make the Tournament." Would I bet the farm that we'll make the Tourney next year? No, but it should be our goal, and a realistic one. And if we fall short, that's ok. We'll play in the NIT is our Ceiling Tournament.
KenPom metrics are different than just straight records, so these examples are fairly meaningless.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
Posted from Rivals Mobile
I don't think anyone here would consider them meaningless. All those examples are fairly related to ours...
They are meaningless in response to a post that specifically mentions using KenPom ratings as a metric.
What were the changes in KenPom rating from year to year for the teams referenced?
Posted from Rivals Mobile
What were the changes in KenPom rating from year to year for the teams referenced?
Posted from Rivals Mobile
The comments are spot on..
JVZ is the key as he helps address a glaring weakness - depth in the front line... Olah needs to continue to improve but the two combined will gives us 40 minutes of competitive front line play and we will have 10 fouls to work with.. Pardon adds to the depth. We may not make the tourney but will compete in every game rather than taking some nights off..
We have the talent at the other positions - nights we shoot well and don't turn it over - likely wins... there is room for optimism but CC needs to recruit some 4s and 5s or it wiill be a return to the past after this season
JVZ is the key as he helps address a glaring weakness - depth in the front line... Olah needs to continue to improve but the two combined will gives us 40 minutes of competitive front line play and we will have 10 fouls to work with.. Pardon adds to the depth. We may not make the tourney but will compete in every game rather than taking some nights off..
We have the talent at the other positions - nights we shoot well and don't turn it over - likely wins... there is room for optimism but CC needs to recruit some 4s and 5s or it wiill be a return to the past after this season
Only had to check the first example. Notre Dame went from a 99th in KenPom to 9th. If we go from 118th to 28th next year, you can bet we'll be in the Dance. Suspect if the only one I checked was this dramatic, that there are many other examples.
This post was edited on 4/11 7:44 PM by mikewebb68
This post was edited on 4/11 7:44 PM by mikewebb68
Could NU flip three conference games, win one in the tourney, and eliminate two non-con losses? That'd get them to 20-14, 9-9, right on the bubble. Yes, they could, but that would stand as a big improvement. It's nice that the newcomers are relied upon to be role players, perhaps with the exception of the one who has significant major college experience.
It'd still be a big improvement, and I would be surprised, but less surprised than i expected when I started responding to your post, ECat.
It'd still be a big improvement, and I would be surprised, but less surprised than i expected when I started responding to your post, ECat.
There's a pretty big gulf between that and the biggest single season turnarounds by any college basketball team in recent memory. Most other teams in the country who return their top four scorers, one of whom is a center, and add a top 100 freshman and a transfer who averaged 10 and 5 in the ACC would feel pretty good about their chances of making a Tourney run.
But we have a serious case of being NU fans and automatically either assume the worst or have unrealistic expectations of success.
But we have a serious case of being NU fans and automatically either assume the worst or have unrealistic expectations of success.
No one's saying that. Straw man central.
I really have no interest in getting into a fight with you. I just don't see the purpose of being a fan if this is your way of doing it, but hey, whatever floats your boat.
I really have no interest in getting into a fight with you. I just don't see the purpose of being a fan if this is your way of doing it, but hey, whatever floats your boat.
The line that surprised me
"Collins has proven ... that he can match Xs and Os with just about anyone."
I'm still waiting for the "on a given night" disclaimer to be included into that sentence. Every night? Eh ... we'll see.
Sam Rothstein's "legitimate possibility"/definite-maybe prediction is another in the line of evaluations placing a lot of weight on Falzon. I just don't put down money on any freshmen outside the top 50 as program changers.
I'll start with a hope for the NIT, and go from there. An NIT in year three is a nice beginning.
"Collins has proven ... that he can match Xs and Os with just about anyone."
I'm still waiting for the "on a given night" disclaimer to be included into that sentence. Every night? Eh ... we'll see.
Sam Rothstein's "legitimate possibility"/definite-maybe prediction is another in the line of evaluations placing a lot of weight on Falzon. I just don't put down money on any freshmen outside the top 50 as program changers.
I'll start with a hope for the NIT, and go from there. An NIT in year three is a nice beginning.
Re: The line that surprised me
I think more likely we will see the team make an NCAA tourney run this year, and the possibly take a step back next year, unless Collins can land an immediate impact Big either via a superstar frosh or another 5th year transfer.
The reason - this year, we will have Olah and JvZ. We will be solid all around, and finally have consistent post defense and rebounding ability to go against the rest of the League. Our team was very solid when Olah was in, but we had nothing when he had to rest.
Look at the final 7 or 8 games. We were a different team when Olah didn't have to chase his man to the top of the key and could stay down low to patrol the lane. You add JvZ and preferably Pardon and we are that much more solid. Honestly, had we played like we did the in those last 8 games all year, I think we would have made the NIT for sure, and would have had a shot at the tourney. And that's without our kids getting older, another Collins recruited class, and JvZ coming in to help.
Look up and down the roster. Where are we deficient? Where will be unworthy relative to other tourney teams? I'm not saying we are going to make the Sweet Sixteen as Styre scoffingly jests, but if we did, I wouldn't be utterly shocked. We will be very solid next year. We have never had this depth and experience - yes, experience- JvZ adds a 3rd key senior, in fact a 5th year senior) who has been around the block. This year's team had very little senior leadership. Sobo was a role player off the bench, and Cobb was hurt the whole year.
This coming year will be the year. I think we take a step back next season, but we'll continue to build moving forward after that. As long as CCC can land some more bigs.
I think more likely we will see the team make an NCAA tourney run this year, and the possibly take a step back next year, unless Collins can land an immediate impact Big either via a superstar frosh or another 5th year transfer.
The reason - this year, we will have Olah and JvZ. We will be solid all around, and finally have consistent post defense and rebounding ability to go against the rest of the League. Our team was very solid when Olah was in, but we had nothing when he had to rest.
Look at the final 7 or 8 games. We were a different team when Olah didn't have to chase his man to the top of the key and could stay down low to patrol the lane. You add JvZ and preferably Pardon and we are that much more solid. Honestly, had we played like we did the in those last 8 games all year, I think we would have made the NIT for sure, and would have had a shot at the tourney. And that's without our kids getting older, another Collins recruited class, and JvZ coming in to help.
Look up and down the roster. Where are we deficient? Where will be unworthy relative to other tourney teams? I'm not saying we are going to make the Sweet Sixteen as Styre scoffingly jests, but if we did, I wouldn't be utterly shocked. We will be very solid next year. We have never had this depth and experience - yes, experience- JvZ adds a 3rd key senior, in fact a 5th year senior) who has been around the block. This year's team had very little senior leadership. Sobo was a role player off the bench, and Cobb was hurt the whole year.
This coming year will be the year. I think we take a step back next season, but we'll continue to build moving forward after that. As long as CCC can land some more bigs.
Re: The line that surprised me
Wouldn't our current best player be the 4th best player on the 2010/11 team?
Of the teams that finished above us in the B1G, which do you see us jumping?
Wouldn't our current best player be the 4th best player on the 2010/11 team?
Of the teams that finished above us in the B1G, which do you see us jumping?
Re: The line that surprised me
To briefly answer your question about where we're deficient: defense and top-flight scoring ability. We were atrocious defensively this year, and while JVZ will give improved defense inside when he plays, he will not fix our defense at the perimeter and on the wings. Now, if Collins can coach the guys up to play defense like they did in '14, then we'll have a solid chance at making the tournament. But it remains to be seen which defensive year will be the outlier going forward.
Between BMac, Demps, Olah, and hopeful improvement from Law + the incoming frosh, we should have decent offensive efficiency. But it'll need to be elite-level to overcome our defensive problems if they continue, and we don't have elite-level scoring talent. All that said, the team should be much improved and fun to watch.
To briefly answer your question about where we're deficient: defense and top-flight scoring ability. We were atrocious defensively this year, and while JVZ will give improved defense inside when he plays, he will not fix our defense at the perimeter and on the wings. Now, if Collins can coach the guys up to play defense like they did in '14, then we'll have a solid chance at making the tournament. But it remains to be seen which defensive year will be the outlier going forward.
Between BMac, Demps, Olah, and hopeful improvement from Law + the incoming frosh, we should have decent offensive efficiency. But it'll need to be elite-level to overcome our defensive problems if they continue, and we don't have elite-level scoring talent. All that said, the team should be much improved and fun to watch.
Re: The line that surprised me
A couple great questions wicker park....
The strength of this past year's and next year's team will be the nine and maybe ten deep. While the top player or two of the '10 team may be superior to anyone on the current roster, the current 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 would annihilate the same spots on the '10 team.
And the top two or three players on the '10 team were very good but not elite Big Ten players.
The unknown is how the frosh develop into sophomores and enter the season next year. Will Lindsey be better than Cobb? B Mac better than Juice and Law better than Shurna? In all three cases they have very different styles of play. There is more athleticism with the currently rising sophomores. It is more than conceivable that one or two will have better careers than the best players from '10. And that doesn't factor in Olah and Demps who will be seniors. Or Falzon.
Regarding who we might jump next year...
Iowa, Michigan, Purdue and Illinois are possibilities. Purdue if AJ goes and he should if he's smart. Iowa should struggle with the loss of key seniors. Only need to jump two or three of the four to get into the dance. Have to see if Indianan loses its guard.
.500 or better in the Big Ten and the NIT should be the objective. The "we're in the tournament next year" talk is fun, but a little premature.
A couple great questions wicker park....
The strength of this past year's and next year's team will be the nine and maybe ten deep. While the top player or two of the '10 team may be superior to anyone on the current roster, the current 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 would annihilate the same spots on the '10 team.
And the top two or three players on the '10 team were very good but not elite Big Ten players.
The unknown is how the frosh develop into sophomores and enter the season next year. Will Lindsey be better than Cobb? B Mac better than Juice and Law better than Shurna? In all three cases they have very different styles of play. There is more athleticism with the currently rising sophomores. It is more than conceivable that one or two will have better careers than the best players from '10. And that doesn't factor in Olah and Demps who will be seniors. Or Falzon.
Regarding who we might jump next year...
Iowa, Michigan, Purdue and Illinois are possibilities. Purdue if AJ goes and he should if he's smart. Iowa should struggle with the loss of key seniors. Only need to jump two or three of the four to get into the dance. Have to see if Indianan loses its guard.
.500 or better in the Big Ten and the NIT should be the objective. The "we're in the tournament next year" talk is fun, but a little premature.
I am totally on board with the potential of next year's team. The major question mark, other than health, is the strength of the rest of the conference. Maryland is going to be stronger, MSU just landed a ***** McDonald's AA center to go with another AA front court player and a powerhouse set of guards. They will be stronger. Any word on Hammonds' decision at Purdue? If he's back they are going to be brutal. At least 2 of the of the 3 I schools are losing relatively little and recruiting well. (not sure about Iowa though). Wisconsin is never easy, OSU..... even Penn State has a big upside. Michigan was brutalized by injuries and will have their stars back according to reports.
That said, we have what it takes to score major numbers of wins out of conference and compete for mid level in-conference. Anything above that would make CC a national coach of the year candidate.
That said, we have what it takes to score major numbers of wins out of conference and compete for mid level in-conference. Anything above that would make CC a national coach of the year candidate.
Re: The line that surprised me
Was that so hard?
Seriously, +1 to Virginia on this one. I'd prefer that the knowledgeable posters provide info instead of snark. Most here are up for debate, but the sarcasm is no fun.
Anyway, I'll go back to my regularly scheduled April programming of watching baseball and enjoying the sunshine.
Was that so hard?
Seriously, +1 to Virginia on this one. I'd prefer that the knowledgeable posters provide info instead of snark. Most here are up for debate, but the sarcasm is no fun.
Anyway, I'll go back to my regularly scheduled April programming of watching baseball and enjoying the sunshine.
Re: The line that surprised me
Don't know why you'd think we'd jump Michigan. They're returning almost everyone of consequence from their team next year and were about as good as us with Walton and LeVert sitting out. I think NU will be better next year, but unfortunately so will just about every other team in the conference outside of Wisconsin.
Don't know why you'd think we'd jump Michigan. They're returning almost everyone of consequence from their team next year and were about as good as us with Walton and LeVert sitting out. I think NU will be better next year, but unfortunately so will just about every other team in the conference outside of Wisconsin.
Re: The line that surprised me
Said we "could."
Spike Albrecht (sp?) graduates this year. He was the glue. The bulk of the roster was sophomores and our freshmen almost beat them twice. NU's freshmen should improve more year over year than U of M's sophomores. That's the hope anyway.
Sure, Michigan could be great. Or up and down like this year. Dawkins could turn into a sensational player. But so could Law.
Iowa will be down next year. Minny should be down.
And then there should be an outlier that rises from the bottom third.
Said we "could."
Spike Albrecht (sp?) graduates this year. He was the glue. The bulk of the roster was sophomores and our freshmen almost beat them twice. NU's freshmen should improve more year over year than U of M's sophomores. That's the hope anyway.
Sure, Michigan could be great. Or up and down like this year. Dawkins could turn into a sensational player. But so could Law.
Iowa will be down next year. Minny should be down.
And then there should be an outlier that rises from the bottom third.
Re: The line that surprised me
While I think next year is likely to be an exciting year, I feel you are being a bit premature. While I definitely see a run at the NIT, it would look like we are facing an uphill battle to get to the 10 wins necessary for the dance. (either 10-8 in conference or 9-9 with at least one win in the BTT and even that would only make us a bubble team)
While I think next year is likely to be an exciting year, I feel you are being a bit premature. While I definitely see a run at the NIT, it would look like we are facing an uphill battle to get to the 10 wins necessary for the dance. (either 10-8 in conference or 9-9 with at least one win in the BTT and even that would only make us a bubble team)
Re: The line that surprised me
Albrecht is a junior. He did, however, have hip surgery and is expected to need a 4-5 month recovery. Abdur-Rahkman also was a good frosh for Michigan, and Ricky Doyle and Kameron Chatman are certainly frosh with potential for them. I see no reason to assume we'll be more improved than Michigan next year, especially if Walton and LeVert return at 100 percent, but it goes without saying that I hope we will be.
Albrecht is a junior. He did, however, have hip surgery and is expected to need a 4-5 month recovery. Abdur-Rahkman also was a good frosh for Michigan, and Ricky Doyle and Kameron Chatman are certainly frosh with potential for them. I see no reason to assume we'll be more improved than Michigan next year, especially if Walton and LeVert return at 100 percent, but it goes without saying that I hope we will be.
Re: The line that surprised me
My mistake on Albrecht. I rely on Verbal Commits for info on Big Ten rosters and they have already progressed to the '15 - '16 season.
So, yeah, that pretty much blows up my thesis about our frosh progressing further.
My mistake on Albrecht. I rely on Verbal Commits for info on Big Ten rosters and they have already progressed to the '15 - '16 season.
So, yeah, that pretty much blows up my thesis about our frosh progressing further.
Re: The line that surprised me
Even if Hammons leaves, Purdue still projects as a better team than Northwestern. They went to the tourney and return Haas, Edwards, Davis and Stephens. Not a single Wildcat frontcourt player would start for the Boilers.
Michigan was decimated by injuries this year. Unless they experience a similar rash of attrition, it's hard to see Northwestern finishing higher than the Wolverines. Michigan is just on another level talent-wise. If they had someone like Crean or Groce coaching them, I could see them underachieving, but Beilein is a great coach.
People said Iowa would struggle this past season because they lost a All-Big Ten player in Marble and two very experienced seniors. They went from being a 6th place team in a 12-team league to 3rd place in a 14-team league. I don't know that they'll end up that high in the standings again, but to assume that a very experienced team returning 4 starters is going to "struggle" sounds like a reach to me.
I could see the Wildcats climbing above Illinois. The Illini have more talent Northwestern, but they also have Groce as their coach.
This post was edited on 4/14 11:58 AM by chaneccooms
I think the Wildcats will be significantly improved, but the above is a lot of wishful thinking packed into just a few sentences.
Even if Hammons leaves, Purdue still projects as a better team than Northwestern. They went to the tourney and return Haas, Edwards, Davis and Stephens. Not a single Wildcat frontcourt player would start for the Boilers.
Michigan was decimated by injuries this year. Unless they experience a similar rash of attrition, it's hard to see Northwestern finishing higher than the Wolverines. Michigan is just on another level talent-wise. If they had someone like Crean or Groce coaching them, I could see them underachieving, but Beilein is a great coach.
People said Iowa would struggle this past season because they lost a All-Big Ten player in Marble and two very experienced seniors. They went from being a 6th place team in a 12-team league to 3rd place in a 14-team league. I don't know that they'll end up that high in the standings again, but to assume that a very experienced team returning 4 starters is going to "struggle" sounds like a reach to me.
I could see the Wildcats climbing above Illinois. The Illini have more talent Northwestern, but they also have Groce as their coach.
This post was edited on 4/14 11:58 AM by chaneccooms
Re: The line that surprised me
Chancecooms,
This is a wishful thinking thread.
I picked Iowa to finish top half and make a run in the tournament. And I never gave up on Iowa even though it seemed like the majority of Iowa fans did. Iowa had a lot of talent but was weaker at guard than I expected going into the season. The starter they lost was their top scorer, rebounder and overall talent. A lot of NU fans thought Olaseni should have been a starter over Woodbury. And Oglesby is a loss.
It's not a stellar class coming in for Iowa and it doesn't look like the guard situation has been fixed. Uthoff is a talent but on balance Iowa lost more than it's gained.
At some point the improvement in recruiting and player development has to kick in. Adding three conference wins next year....from six to nine....gets NU to .500. Given the percentage of minutes that NU freshmen played along with the additions and big man transfer that doesn't seem crazy.
I think the top half of the league is better next year so .500 conference probably doesn't get you in the tournament on its own. Winning nine games would have jumped NU three or four spots this year.
Chancecooms,
This is a wishful thinking thread.
I picked Iowa to finish top half and make a run in the tournament. And I never gave up on Iowa even though it seemed like the majority of Iowa fans did. Iowa had a lot of talent but was weaker at guard than I expected going into the season. The starter they lost was their top scorer, rebounder and overall talent. A lot of NU fans thought Olaseni should have been a starter over Woodbury. And Oglesby is a loss.
It's not a stellar class coming in for Iowa and it doesn't look like the guard situation has been fixed. Uthoff is a talent but on balance Iowa lost more than it's gained.
At some point the improvement in recruiting and player development has to kick in. Adding three conference wins next year....from six to nine....gets NU to .500. Given the percentage of minutes that NU freshmen played along with the additions and big man transfer that doesn't seem crazy.
I think the top half of the league is better next year so .500 conference probably doesn't get you in the tournament on its own. Winning nine games would have jumped NU three or four spots this year.
Re: The line that surprised me
Yeah. Until you see how this team plays together for a couple months and what JVZ, Falzon and Pardon bring the tournament talk is pretty much smoking dope. Making the NIT is a big step up. (Just want to get that out there now because come Sept/Oct I'll be forecasting 15 conference wins)
The one guy that no one focuses on is Skelly. Athletically and physically he belongs in the Big Ten. Decent shot but wasn't comfortable in the post on offense. Did not have the go-to moves to get anything done low. He'll only get better. He'll come back in the Fall able to score a little bit. And he'll have better foot work and better strength. All the tools are there.
It's going to be a real fight for minutes next year.
Yeah. Until you see how this team plays together for a couple months and what JVZ, Falzon and Pardon bring the tournament talk is pretty much smoking dope. Making the NIT is a big step up. (Just want to get that out there now because come Sept/Oct I'll be forecasting 15 conference wins)
The one guy that no one focuses on is Skelly. Athletically and physically he belongs in the Big Ten. Decent shot but wasn't comfortable in the post on offense. Did not have the go-to moves to get anything done low. He'll only get better. He'll come back in the Fall able to score a little bit. And he'll have better foot work and better strength. All the tools are there.
It's going to be a real fight for minutes next year.
Re: The line that surprised me
Fifteen conference wins? Is there someone you think Northwestern can't beat?
Seriously, if we got to 6 wins this year with all of the issues we had, you'd like to think reasonable improvement from Lindsey, Law and Mac would put us in a position to add 2-3 more games, and at 9-9 in the Big Ten, that's good enough for bubble discussion. No one can assume that any of those three will actually get better until you see it happen -- though I personally expect all three will and Law in particular will get some all-Big Ten buzz. My biggest reason for pessimism is that Collins has needed to make major coaching adjustments halfway through Big Ten season both of his first two years. The changes felt great at the time in breathing life into otherwise hopeless and dull seasons. But he's never coached a team with expectations, which this year's team will have. Is he going to have to revamp things again, or can we play close to our full potential at the start of the year? We won't know that until December or January.
Fifteen conference wins? Is there someone you think Northwestern can't beat?
Seriously, if we got to 6 wins this year with all of the issues we had, you'd like to think reasonable improvement from Lindsey, Law and Mac would put us in a position to add 2-3 more games, and at 9-9 in the Big Ten, that's good enough for bubble discussion. No one can assume that any of those three will actually get better until you see it happen -- though I personally expect all three will and Law in particular will get some all-Big Ten buzz. My biggest reason for pessimism is that Collins has needed to make major coaching adjustments halfway through Big Ten season both of his first two years. The changes felt great at the time in breathing life into otherwise hopeless and dull seasons. But he's never coached a team with expectations, which this year's team will have. Is he going to have to revamp things again, or can we play close to our full potential at the start of the year? We won't know that until December or January.
Re: The line that surprised me
Based on a very brief analysis of the players who are leaving/returning/committing for next season, I see the B1G as a whole getting much better than it was this year. Iowa is one of the few teams who will be taking a step backwards. Yes there will be 4 seniors there, but outside of Uthoff none of the others have ever made a real impact in the way that Aaron White could. Wisconsin will take a step back too, but considering how far in front of the pack they were, they will still be a player. MSU, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland and Purdue (depending on Hammons) should all make substantial improvements, and OSU always finds a way to be competitive with young teams. Minnesota, Rutgers and Nebraska will be at the bottom of the B1G again, and PSU will probably tread water. I think our best-case scenario is 8th place.
Based on a very brief analysis of the players who are leaving/returning/committing for next season, I see the B1G as a whole getting much better than it was this year. Iowa is one of the few teams who will be taking a step backwards. Yes there will be 4 seniors there, but outside of Uthoff none of the others have ever made a real impact in the way that Aaron White could. Wisconsin will take a step back too, but considering how far in front of the pack they were, they will still be a player. MSU, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Maryland and Purdue (depending on Hammons) should all make substantial improvements, and OSU always finds a way to be competitive with young teams. Minnesota, Rutgers and Nebraska will be at the bottom of the B1G again, and PSU will probably tread water. I think our best-case scenario is 8th place.
Re: The line that surprised me
Not sure why you think Collins has any advantage over Groce. I read a national article recently that called Groce one of the great young basketball minds and a rising star. He had some bad luck this year with injuries. Lost two starters before the year started and lost Rice for 9 games in the middle of the BT.
Like all coaches, he needs the right players for his system to be successful. I think he has some of those in the program and a top class coming in.
What has he ever done that makes you think he isn't a good coach?
Not sure why you think Collins has any advantage over Groce. I read a national article recently that called Groce one of the great young basketball minds and a rising star. He had some bad luck this year with injuries. Lost two starters before the year started and lost Rice for 9 games in the middle of the BT.
Like all coaches, he needs the right players for his system to be successful. I think he has some of those in the program and a top class coming in.
What has he ever done that makes you think he isn't a good coach?
Re: The line that surprised me
Think the jury has to be out on both coaches for another year or two. Illinois and the rest of the Big Ten have huge advantages over NU when it comes to recruiting. Once again, there's a long list of top '16 players from the Chicago area who NU doesn't even talk to because they don't qualify.
You can't look at Illinois' roster next year and dismiss the fact that they could be really, really good if it just clicks a little bit.
Think the jury has to be out on both coaches for another year or two. Illinois and the rest of the Big Ten have huge advantages over NU when it comes to recruiting. Once again, there's a long list of top '16 players from the Chicago area who NU doesn't even talk to because they don't qualify.
You can't look at Illinois' roster next year and dismiss the fact that they could be really, really good if it just clicks a little bit.
