2018 Strength of Schedule @ Matt Smith CFB
- Thread starter Purple Pile Driver
- Start date
Yeah makes me wonder what metric(s) he is using... I mean I know the SEC had a bad year last year but I have a feeling this is prob a bit of a biased sample here.
That said, our schedule is pretty tough, with Michigan and MSU in crossovers, and ND Duke out of conference.
Well, B1G schools play 9 conference games and few FCS teams for starters. Sec play 8 conference games and at least 1 FCS tomato can.
Doesn't matter. That won't change until the CFP Committee clearly penalizes the SEC for their half-assed scheduling model. And that will happen when pigs fly. Sooey!
Perhaps... I have a strong feeling that ESPN's SOS model (based on the flawed FPI) would show very different results.
That doesn't mean ESPN's is right, but still this seems a bit of a skew toward the B1G - even if they are going off of simple W/L, last year the B1G had a handful of teams with good records near the top (OSU Wiscy PSU MSU NU Mich maybe Iowa) but it's not like the conference knocked it out of the park top to bottom. I suppose the strong bowl record for us could be helping though, maybe it's based on some measure of end-of-season rankings.
Well, with a 7-1 bowl record that probably should have been 8-0, what other conference knocked it out of the part top to bottom more than the B1G? The SEC East outside of Georgia was basically a suckfest.
Bama's schedule for next year: only two divisional crossovers, Mizzou and UT. OOC opponents are Louisville (OK), Arky State, Louisiana-Lafayette, and The Citadel.
Ready for a good laugh, here is a comment on the Twitter thread of @Matt Smith. Response to mocking of SEC sched strength (somehow funny, even if it's a standard SEC fan attitude):
I don't think anybody outside of the SEC really understands how physical the teams play week in and week out. Sure, some of them end up with average records, but that's largely because they beat the hell out of each other and get the hell beat out of them by the better SEC teams.
I thought there was too much SEC speed for anybody to get hit...
I don't think anybody outside of the SEC really understands how physical the teams play week in and week out. Sure, some of them end up with average records, but that's largely because they beat the hell out of each other and get the hell beat out of them by the better SEC teams.
I thought there was too much SEC speed for anybody to get hit...
Yeah but the conference pretty much got rolled in all our OOC matchups against good teams during the regular season.
OSU lost to Okla, PSU Wiscy didn't play anyone, MSU smoked by ND, Mich didn't play anyone, we got smoked by Duke, Iowa did beat Iowa St, but Neb lost to NIU. But think we outweighed that with our play in bowl season
LSU lost to Troy State, Missouri got smoked by Purdue etc. Those are only two SEC disasters I can think about off the top of my head. Michigan did play someone — Florida— which turned out to be another lousy SEC East team this season. Yeah, Nebraska lost, but they turned out to be one of the conference's worst teams. I actually thought the Big 12 might have been the best-balanced conference during the past year.
Northwestern's 2019 schedule looks to be brutal by any measure. The last five are manageable, but the first seven are:
1.@Stanford
2.Bye
3.UNLV
4.MSU
5.@Wisconsin
6.@Nebraska
7.Bye
8.OSU
9.Iowa
We could be good and go 2-5 in the first year without Thorson on the roster. Six of those seven could be legit Top 25 teams. The final five:
10.@Indiana
11.Purdue
12.UMass
13.Minnesota
14.@Illinois
Indiana is always dangerous. Purdue and Minnesota should be much improved. All in all, a very tough schedule in a year we're transitioning full time to a new QB AND working 3 new OLM into the starting lineup. Defense should be up to the task. Offense? Guys like Vogel, Meyler, Kolwich, Urban and either Smith or Marty are going to have to really step up to the challenge.
GOUNUII
Yeah, I'm not defending the SEC's general OOC approach... for the most part you see a few Huge marquee games that ESPN markets to every corner of the earth (e.g. Auburn-Clemson, Bama-FSU, LSU-Wiscy in the past, Mich-Fla this year, etc) and then just a whole bunch of absolute cupcakes. I think the B1G does a far better job of mixing in a steadier supply of reasonable teams that are competitive and worth playing (the MAC helps with this, but we also have more games against other Power 5 conference opponents). They claim that this is because the SEC is just "so tough" and "physical" and competitive" on a week in week out basis, as if the B1G isn't physical. Whatever.
Btw I agree with whoever said that the Big 12 was prob the most balanced top to bottom this year. It's always hard to tell from the eye test with those teams cause they don't really play defense (ex maybe Okla and TCU), but there were a lot of skilled players and talented teams. And the bad teams at the bottom of their conference (prob just Kansas and Baylor) was thinner than the list of bad teams in the B1G and SEC this year.
That will be a tough one, but the 2018 schedule is enough to worry about before I tackle 2019. One thing that interests me is the SEC-like late date with UMass.
Past what point? Do we need to forget Duke or Illinois State or WMU to be where you think we should be? Do we need to forget our history of slow starts to the season under Fitz, or the fact that great QB play has always been a key to the success we’ve had? Are you suggesting the OL issues will magically disappear when Hance, Butler and Doles graduate ... and are likely replaced by juniors and RS seniors who have never started?
What I posted is true for NU. Equally true for any other Top 20 program. Especially true when you consider who the most likely new faces will be at critically important offensive positions.
Bottom line ... that’s a relatively rare and very difficult seven game stretch to open the 2019 season...and it would be seen that way even if you were to replace OSU with Bama and then say to Buckeye fans ... “ Here ... try this one on for size.”
GOUNUII
Whenever we can consistently get through schedules such as that with 8-10 wins, then yes I think we will get past that point.
No. Though I'm not sure what you are referring to tbh.
The main thing that bothered me about his post was that why are we already hand wringing about the 2019 schedule when we haven't even started the 2018 season yet, which is hard enough as it is with MSU Mich ND Duke in addition to the usual B1G West slate. I hope we aren't already throwing the towel in on next year! So if that's what you are referring to, then I'm with you!!
Personally, I'm worried about 2025 myself.
No worries, Fitz will still be the Head Ball Coach at NU, and Cushing still coaching OL.
Just pointing out that our SOS doesn't ease up anytime soon. Highly relevant to our ongoing ascent up the college football totem pole. Largely because our recruiting fortunes are highly sensitive to our won loss record from year to year.
GOUNUII
Yeah fair enough. You'll notice it didn't bother me enough to post a snarky response to your post, not until it became a thing for everyone to comment on that post haha
True but is there anything to be said for pointing to all these marque games that will enhance recruiting. Also, NU has had 10 win seasons two of the last three years. These next few years are an opportunity to establish NU as a national power. This is an opportunity to really get the competitive juices flowing. The path to a National championship may be more difficult but the path to national recognition is there if we win some of these games an take care of business in the others.
The schedules for the next 2 years are difficult, but we have solid depth and some of the teams on our upcoming schedule (Michigan, Notre Dame) have more questions than we have. Most of our difficult games in 2018 are at home.
Of course, we can't take anything for granted, but we should be closer to "expect victory" than "expect a pair of 5 win seasons like 2013-2014".
The program is built for enduring success in 2018, much more than it was in 2013 coming off of a 10 win season. Our success these past 2 years should be proof of that.
Of course, we can't take anything for granted, but we should be closer to "expect victory" than "expect a pair of 5 win seasons like 2013-2014".
The program is built for enduring success in 2018, much more than it was in 2013 coming off of a 10 win season. Our success these past 2 years should be proof of that.
Schedule probably will be tougher as it seems reasonable to expect improvement from Purdue, Nebraska and Minnesota.
