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70-75%

ricko654321

Well-Known Member
Nov 15, 2006
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So I'll start by saying I definitely underestimated the impact of losing Lindsey. It's not just his points as our leading scorer, it's the holistic impact. We were more disjointed last night by far than I've seen all season. I'm not talking just bad basketball plays (of which there were plenty), I'm talking poor team communication and a lack of coherence.
- There were I think about 10 baaaad defensive rotations or missed assignments on defense against IL, and I'm not a coach who watches film but if you combine w Purdue it's felt like more than we've had for the rest of the B1G season to date.
- On offense too we had a number of occasions where players seemed to be out of place, poor spacing, delays in setting up plays, or the pass went one way and the player another. Even leaving aside BMac's unfortunately timed losses of footing which were likely random, we did not look like ourselves on offense. We were hovering in the 33-35% shooting range for most of the game.
- I think both of these things are a result of guys playing out of their normal positions and roles. Obviously I had hoped we would adjust quicker than that, but we just looked uncomfortable. Brown took too much onto himself in the first half and was a liability on both ends of the floor. Then when we went to the bigger lineups more in the second half (which admittedly I was hoping for) Tap and to a lesser extent Skelly struggled playing defense on the perimeter.
- And with Vic thrust into a larger role on offense, coupled with hounding Hill all over the floor on defense and a lack of opportunities to get rest on the bench with Scottie out, his legs were clearly dead by the end of the game.

Give Illinois credit - Finke was excellent in the 2H, Lucas was solid down the stretch also, and they moved the ball quite well. Hill played up to his normal standards too.

So.... while I underestimated the impact of losing Lindsey, I think this is no cause for panic yet. There are lots of opportunities left to get wins on the schedule. We were overdue for a bad loss and the illness helped us along to that. We're also overdue to play a complete game where we shoot well for the first time in a while, and pull an upset over one of the top teams to offset this one. If I had to guess I'd say 4-3 the rest of the way, I quite like our chances against Md and Purdue at home, and even @Wiscy isn't out of the question. And I think we are outright better than the other 4 teams we play. You guys prob know I'm in the 10-8 + 1 camp by now, and I'm still feeling pretty good about that.

The 70-75% title of this thread was in reference to our chances of making the tournament from here. We're still 7-4, and this team still has a lot of talent. And most importantly, Collins didn't lose his ability to coach and motivate overnight. Sanjay BMac and Vic will rally the team together, and hopefully Scottie is back soon.

Go Cats!
 
What stage of grief is the "bargaining" stage? It feels like we are all there.
That's #3. Based on that framework I think I'd be closer to #2, denial given I am saying 70-75%.... cause I do still feel pretty confident we'll make it.

Think bargaining is more like "if only Scottie were to get healthy and we make it this year, I'll never complain about the NU bball injury curse again", no?
 
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