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A former Dookie's take...

Katatonic

Well-Known Member
Oct 23, 2004
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Former Duke player's take on the Stanford game and the upcoming match-up with Duke.

One of the rare upsets thus far, which has Duke's next opponent ranked @ #23 in the AP Poll after week 2, was Northwestern's bruising victory at home over a then ranked #21 Stanford team over Labor Day weekend. Having watched the majority of that game two things were apparent to me.

1.) Stanford is not nearly the team they have been the last 4 or 5 years. They are inexperienced for the first time in recent memory all over their defense and Kevin Hogan is not an NFL QB. He arguably isn't even much better than an average college football QB.

2.) Northwestern is down right tough on both sides of the ball and won't be an easy out in the Western division of the Big10 for any opponent they face.


- Can't say I disagree with the take on Hogan too much (might make it as a back-up in the NFL).

While Hogan is the active QB with the most wins, he has been the beneficiary of a top-flight O-line (not so much last year), physical running game, NFL caliber TEs and a stout D.

So coming into most games, Hogan has had the advantage over the opposing QBs.

One of the few exceptions was the Rose Bowl against MSU where Cook outplayed Hogan (MSU needed that as Stanford's D was really able to limit the Spartan run game).

That season, Siemian had better stats against the MSU D (was also the leading rusher for the 'Cats) and Hogan didn't even have to face the leader/captain of the MSU D, Max Bullough, who had been suspended for the game.

Stanford's lack of experience on D is a bit overplayed; while Stanford lost many starters, not like the remaining players didn't have game experience (after all, aside from half of a season of experience for Walker, the NU LBer corps was pretty inexperienced).


Another thing to keep in mind is how much these two teams mirror one another. They both have athletic QB's starting only their third game of their entire career. They also both deploy the shotgun spread option / zone read attack on offense meaning each defense will know the other teams offense intimately from practicing against that scheme day in and day out.

That said, as far as my eyes can see, Duke has far greater overall team speed than Northwestern does. Additionally, the fact this game is played in Durham is more important than many know being that Northwestern's game surface is thick long cut grass they use to equalize team speed in the Big10.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2015/9/15/9328395/some-keen-insights-into-duke-northwestern

Think the 'Cats have the edge on the D-line and maybe the O-line (depending on the health situation) - which should help negate the advantage Duke has at QB (while not having much game experience, a RS JR should be ahead of a RS Frosh, esp. a RS JR who was getting the back-up snaps last season).

Secondaries are probably even (w/ the 'Cats maybe having more depth - not knowing enough about the depth on the other side).

I'd give the edge to Duke at wide-out (hopefully, the secondary won't make that too much of an issue), but think the speed on NU's end is being under-valued (aside from that clutch 3rd down catch, Shuler didn't get much action and neither did the other speed guys like Vault, Anderson, Roberts, Nagel, etc.). What's the deal w/ Buckley?

Might just come down to field position, turnovers and/or playcalling, that is unless the 'Cats come out and play the more physical ball.

Don't know how it has been in Chicago-land since the Stanford game, but if it is hot and humid, the depth at D-line and the secondary will help the 'Cats. Otoh, the lack of depth at LBer and the O-line might become an issue.

Not many posters on the Duke SB Nation blog - but then again, it's called the Duke Basketball Report.
 
Great breakdown.

There is one thing not discussed is the most important for the 'cats in Justin Jackson and the run game. Northwestern has not played from behind this year and in my opinion are built to play with a lead. They have not proven they can move the ball through the air sgainst a solid team. Pound the ball, control the clock and let the D win the game.
 
Team speed will not be a problem for NU. I only worry about special teams where Duke appears to have a clear advantage. I think our D gives up no more than 2 TDs. The offense is underrated and if we have to play from behind, it'll give The Hammer of Thorson an opportunity to show off his arm and his calm under pressure. NU should win this one by a TD.
 
Team speed will not be a problem for NU. I only worry about special teams where Duke appears to have a clear advantage. I think our D gives up no more than 2 TDs. The offense is underrated and if we have to play from behind, it'll give The Hammer of Thorson an opportunity to show off his arm and his calm under pressure. NU should win this one by a TD.

Absent a mistake by one of NU's kickers, I have no doubt NU will kick short on both punts and KOs to negate the advantage of the return game for Duke.
 
Absent a mistake by one of NU's kickers, I have no doubt NU will kick short on both punts and KOs to negate the advantage of the return game for Duke.

I totally agree. We've seen Fitz use this strategy in the past against strong kick returners, and I'd be very surprised if he doesn't do it again in this game.

And to the initial post, I think the former Duke player gives a good breakdown. I do think he is under-selling our team speed though. I'm not saying we could run circles around top teams, but this is one of the most athletic teams I ever remember Northwestern having. Maybe he was more focusing on offense, where we are probably below average in the FBS for speed, but our back seven on defense has a lot of quickness. I think they may be a little surprised by our defensive speed come Saturday.

Should be a great game.
 
The truth about the vast majority of college quarterbacks is that they are not NFL-caliber. But they still can be very good college quarterbacks.

I don't buy the stuff about our team speed. It's there, especially on defense. It does not necessarily manifest on offense given our style of play.

The wildcard is special teams, and the game might hinge on this. Advantage Duke.
 
Hogan had 340 passing yards in 29 attempts with 3/0 TDs vs ints. against Central Fla. Not bad. Maybe he was not sharp against NU, at least as the game wore on, but maybe that's more about us than about him. We need more evidence about our D, and this game will definitely answer some questions. The UMinn game will answer a different and also important set of questions.
 
Former Duke player's take on the Stanford game and the upcoming match-up with Duke.

One of the rare upsets thus far, which has Duke's next opponent ranked @ #23 in the AP Poll after week 2, was Northwestern's bruising victory at home over a then ranked #21 Stanford team over Labor Day weekend. Having watched the majority of that game two things were apparent to me.

1.) Stanford is not nearly the team they have been the last 4 or 5 years. They are inexperienced for the first time in recent memory all over their defense and Kevin Hogan is not an NFL QB. He arguably isn't even much better than an average college football QB.

2.) Northwestern is down right tough on both sides of the ball and won't be an easy out in the Western division of the Big10 for any opponent they face.


- Can't say I disagree with the take on Hogan too much (might make it as a back-up in the NFL).

While Hogan is the active QB with the most wins, he has been the beneficiary of a top-flight O-line (not so much last year), physical running game, NFL caliber TEs and a stout D.

So coming into most games, Hogan has had the advantage over the opposing QBs.

One of the few exceptions was the Rose Bowl against MSU where Cook outplayed Hogan (MSU needed that as Stanford's D was really able to limit the Spartan run game).

That season, Siemian had better stats against the MSU D (was also the leading rusher for the 'Cats) and Hogan didn't even have to face the leader/captain of the MSU D, Max Bullough, who had been suspended for the game.

Stanford's lack of experience on D is a bit overplayed; while Stanford lost many starters, not like the remaining players didn't have game experience (after all, aside from half of a season of experience for Walker, the NU LBer corps was pretty inexperienced).


Another thing to keep in mind is how much these two teams mirror one another. They both have athletic QB's starting only their third game of their entire career. They also both deploy the shotgun spread option / zone read attack on offense meaning each defense will know the other teams offense intimately from practicing against that scheme day in and day out.

That said, as far as my eyes can see, Duke has far greater overall team speed than Northwestern does. Additionally, the fact this game is played in Durham is more important than many know being that Northwestern's game surface is thick long cut grass they use to equalize team speed in the Big10.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2015/9/15/9328395/some-keen-insights-into-duke-northwestern

Think the 'Cats have the edge on the D-line and maybe the O-line (depending on the health situation) - which should help negate the advantage Duke has at QB (while not having much game experience, a RS JR should be ahead of a RS Frosh, esp. a RS JR who was getting the back-up snaps last season).

Secondaries are probably even (w/ the 'Cats maybe having more depth - not knowing enough about the depth on the other side).

I'd give the edge to Duke at wide-out (hopefully, the secondary won't make that too much of an issue), but think the speed on NU's end is being under-valued (aside from that clutch 3rd down catch, Shuler didn't get much action and neither did the other speed guys like Vault, Anderson, Roberts, Nagel, etc.). What's the deal w/ Buckley?

Might just come down to field position, turnovers and/or playcalling, that is unless the 'Cats come out and play the more physical ball.

Don't know how it has been in Chicago-land since the Stanford game, but if it is hot and humid, the depth at D-line and the secondary will help the 'Cats. Otoh, the lack of depth at LBer and the O-line might become an issue.

Not many posters on the Duke SB Nation blog - but then again, it's called the Duke Basketball Report.

Well, if the thick grass at home slows everyone down so much, won't we then also benefit from the turf at Wallace Wade, too, bringing us closer (if not even with or better than; I have no idea) to Duke's team speed?
 
Well, if the thick grass at home slows everyone down so much, won't we then also benefit from the turf at Wallace Wade, too, bringing us closer (if not even with or better than; I have no idea) to Duke's team speed?

I really did not understand this point, and we play away on a variety of surfaces all the time. We use long grass to "equalize team speed"? Wallace Wade Stadium has grass too.
 
If Duke has better team speed then they will be a playoff level defense this season. Have you seen the cats on D this season, I can't remember a time where we've had linebackers flying through gaps, d lineman chasing down backfield players and defensive backs that flat out shut down wide receivers. Duke may have the speed advantage on offense since we lack a true slot threat (Shuler is decent but not great) and Duke might employ a faster tempo than the cats do. However, Duke does not have the bell cow running back that NU does in JJ nor do they have the depth at the RB position. I think Duke will be in for a surprise when they face their first real competition. Stanford may not have been top 25 material but they will be a bowl team and NU put forth a relatively dominating effort, so unless Duke is a top 25 team then I think NU will do the same.
 
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I really did not understand this point, and we play away on a variety of surfaces all the time. We use long grass to "equalize team speed"? Wallace Wade Stadium has grass too.

I think we need to send some intrepid investigative journalists down to Durham to measure the length of each blade of grass and compare them to those at Ryan.

The playing surface argument is fairly common in baseball, where you hear about the "NL Central" cut of grass due to cooler weather and smaller ballparks. Thicker grass results in slower grounders, which results in more outs. Across divisions, that could affect things over 162 games. But I've never heard it applied to football, since it's one game and both teams are on the same field.

What does interest me is a comment I saw somewhere that Duke's 4-2-5 is built to beat Georgia Tech's triple option attack. Is there another team in the country right now so good at something so unique to it such that the other teams in the conference have to change their schemes? We saw firsthand at Army how tough dealing with that can be. It's amazing how well GT has run that system for so long.
 
If Duke has better team speed then they will be a playoff level defense this season. Have you seen the cats on D this season, I can't remember a time where we've had linebackers flying through gaps, d lineman chasing down backfield players and defensive backs that flat out shut down wide receivers. Duke may have the speed advantage on offense since we lack a true slot threat (Shuler is decent but not great) and Duke might employ a faster tempo than the cats do. However, Duke does not have the bell cow running back that NU does in JJ nor do they have the depth at the RB position. I think Duke will be in for a surprise when they face their first real competition. Stanford may not have been top 25 material but they will be a bowl team and NU put forth a relatively dominating effort, so unless Duke is a top 25 team then I think NU will do the same.
It's that our guys know haw to run between the blades of grass at Ryan while visitors do not. Seriously, out team speed is probably just fine. One place we are a little weaker is at the WR position if Schuler is not playing but otherwise, we would appear to be fine
 
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