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A look back at the 2014 recruiting class from The Athletic

CappyNU

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Not sure if any of you subscribe to the newish sports publication The Athletic, but a) it's fantastic and b) there was an article yesterday that looked back at the 2014 recruiting class and re-ranked the top 25 based on how the class panned out. NU, initially rated as the 47th best class, came out at #7 in the re-ranking. Relevant portion of interest below:

Here is the point system we used to re-evaluate every 2014 signee, inspired by the recruiting industry’s traditional five-star rating metric.

5 points: All-American, top-50 NFL draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Left the program, minor or no contribution

We counted both 2014 scholarship signees and any 2014 walk-ons who became starters or key contributors. We’re using the 247Sports Composite for all 2014 class and recruit rankings. Some classes will look even better (or worse) one year from now after the fifth-year seniors graduate. But for this project, we evaluated what a player has done so far.

Some players driving this study, 12 of the top 25 recruits and 20 of the top 50, are in the NFL, led by the nation’s top three individual recruits in 2014 — Leonard Fournette, Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers. Did many players fall well short of expectations? Sure. But the 2014 class also produced a few true program-changing talents.

Because class sizes vary, with some as large as 31 signees and some as small as 16, we used total points divided by total signees to establish the new top 25. The “hit rate” listed with each class is simply the percentage of signees who did not leave the program via transfer, dismissal, ineligibility or injuries.

Because the scoring system is primarily a measure of players’ production and retention, we also needed to account for team success. So we added a bonus to each team’s average, derived from its total number of wins from 2014 through 2017. Alabama’s class, for example, received a bonus of .53 for going 53-5, bumping up its score from 2.78 to 3.31.

7. Northwestern
Adjusted average: 2.75

Hit rate: 100%

Class rank in 2014: 47th

Four-year record: 32-19

Top signees: RB Justin Jackson, QB Clayton Thorson, OL Tommy Doles, OL Blake Hance, DB Kyle Queiro

What is Northwestern doing here? These rankings were intended to value retention and production. And Pat Fitzgerald and his staff have retained every player in their 16-man recruiting class. Jackson became the school’s all-time leading rusher after four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. A bunch of multiyear starters emerged, and Northwestern even developed a walk-on (OL J.B. Butler) into a 17-game starter. No wonder the Wildcats pulled off a pair of 10-win seasons with these guys. Is this class full of future NFL players? Maybe not. But you can’t ask for much more than what the Wildcats got out of this group.​

https://theathletic.com/244180/2018/02/20/college-football-recruiting-class-of-2014-ranking/
 
Not sure if any of you subscribe to the newish sports publication The Athletic, but a) it's fantastic and b) there was an article yesterday that looked back at the 2014 recruiting class and re-ranked the top 25 based on how the class panned out. NU, initially rated as the 47th best class, came out at #7 in the re-ranking. Relevant portion of interest below:

Here is the point system we used to re-evaluate every 2014 signee, inspired by the recruiting industry’s traditional five-star rating metric.

5 points: All-American, top-50 NFL draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Left the program, minor or no contribution

We counted both 2014 scholarship signees and any 2014 walk-ons who became starters or key contributors. We’re using the 247Sports Composite for all 2014 class and recruit rankings. Some classes will look even better (or worse) one year from now after the fifth-year seniors graduate. But for this project, we evaluated what a player has done so far.

Some players driving this study, 12 of the top 25 recruits and 20 of the top 50, are in the NFL, led by the nation’s top three individual recruits in 2014 — Leonard Fournette, Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers. Did many players fall well short of expectations? Sure. But the 2014 class also produced a few true program-changing talents.

Because class sizes vary, with some as large as 31 signees and some as small as 16, we used total points divided by total signees to establish the new top 25. The “hit rate” listed with each class is simply the percentage of signees who did not leave the program via transfer, dismissal, ineligibility or injuries.

Because the scoring system is primarily a measure of players’ production and retention, we also needed to account for team success. So we added a bonus to each team’s average, derived from its total number of wins from 2014 through 2017. Alabama’s class, for example, received a bonus of .53 for going 53-5, bumping up its score from 2.78 to 3.31.

7. Northwestern
Adjusted average: 2.75

Hit rate: 100%

Class rank in 2014: 47th

Four-year record: 32-19

Top signees: RB Justin Jackson, QB Clayton Thorson, OL Tommy Doles, OL Blake Hance, DB Kyle Queiro

What is Northwestern doing here? These rankings were intended to value retention and production. And Pat Fitzgerald and his staff have retained every player in their 16-man recruiting class. Jackson became the school’s all-time leading rusher after four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. A bunch of multiyear starters emerged, and Northwestern even developed a walk-on (OL J.B. Butler) into a 17-game starter. No wonder the Wildcats pulled off a pair of 10-win seasons with these guys. Is this class full of future NFL players? Maybe not. But you can’t ask for much more than what the Wildcats got out of this group.​

https://theathletic.com/244180/2018/02/20/college-football-recruiting-class-of-2014-ranking/
Nice! and thanks for sharing.
 
Not sure if any of you subscribe to the newish sports publication The Athletic, but a) it's fantastic and b) there was an article yesterday that looked back at the 2014 recruiting class and re-ranked the top 25 based on how the class panned out. NU, initially rated as the 47th best class, came out at #7 in the re-ranking. Relevant portion of interest below:

Here is the point system we used to re-evaluate every 2014 signee, inspired by the recruiting industry’s traditional five-star rating metric.

5 points: All-American, top-50 NFL draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Left the program, minor or no contribution

We counted both 2014 scholarship signees and any 2014 walk-ons who became starters or key contributors. We’re using the 247Sports Composite for all 2014 class and recruit rankings. Some classes will look even better (or worse) one year from now after the fifth-year seniors graduate. But for this project, we evaluated what a player has done so far.

Some players driving this study, 12 of the top 25 recruits and 20 of the top 50, are in the NFL, led by the nation’s top three individual recruits in 2014 — Leonard Fournette, Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers. Did many players fall well short of expectations? Sure. But the 2014 class also produced a few true program-changing talents.

Because class sizes vary, with some as large as 31 signees and some as small as 16, we used total points divided by total signees to establish the new top 25. The “hit rate” listed with each class is simply the percentage of signees who did not leave the program via transfer, dismissal, ineligibility or injuries.

Because the scoring system is primarily a measure of players’ production and retention, we also needed to account for team success. So we added a bonus to each team’s average, derived from its total number of wins from 2014 through 2017. Alabama’s class, for example, received a bonus of .53 for going 53-5, bumping up its score from 2.78 to 3.31.

7. Northwestern
Adjusted average: 2.75

Hit rate: 100%

Class rank in 2014: 47th

Four-year record: 32-19

Top signees: RB Justin Jackson, QB Clayton Thorson, OL Tommy Doles, OL Blake Hance, DB Kyle Queiro

What is Northwestern doing here? These rankings were intended to value retention and production. And Pat Fitzgerald and his staff have retained every player in their 16-man recruiting class. Jackson became the school’s all-time leading rusher after four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. A bunch of multiyear starters emerged, and Northwestern even developed a walk-on (OL J.B. Butler) into a 17-game starter. No wonder the Wildcats pulled off a pair of 10-win seasons with these guys. Is this class full of future NFL players? Maybe not. But you can’t ask for much more than what the Wildcats got out of this group.​

https://theathletic.com/244180/2018/02/20/college-football-recruiting-class-of-2014-ranking/
Thanks for sharing. Quite interesting and impressive. Can a school still actually bring in 31 recruits in a single class?
 
Not sure if any of you subscribe to the newish sports publication The Athletic, but a) it's fantastic and b) there was an article yesterday that looked back at the 2014 recruiting class and re-ranked the top 25 based on how the class panned out. NU, initially rated as the 47th best class, came out at #7 in the re-ranking. Relevant portion of interest below:

Here is the point system we used to re-evaluate every 2014 signee, inspired by the recruiting industry’s traditional five-star rating metric.

5 points: All-American, top-50 NFL draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Left the program, minor or no contribution

We counted both 2014 scholarship signees and any 2014 walk-ons who became starters or key contributors. We’re using the 247Sports Composite for all 2014 class and recruit rankings. Some classes will look even better (or worse) one year from now after the fifth-year seniors graduate. But for this project, we evaluated what a player has done so far.

Some players driving this study, 12 of the top 25 recruits and 20 of the top 50, are in the NFL, led by the nation’s top three individual recruits in 2014 — Leonard Fournette, Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers. Did many players fall well short of expectations? Sure. But the 2014 class also produced a few true program-changing talents.

Because class sizes vary, with some as large as 31 signees and some as small as 16, we used total points divided by total signees to establish the new top 25. The “hit rate” listed with each class is simply the percentage of signees who did not leave the program via transfer, dismissal, ineligibility or injuries.

Because the scoring system is primarily a measure of players’ production and retention, we also needed to account for team success. So we added a bonus to each team’s average, derived from its total number of wins from 2014 through 2017. Alabama’s class, for example, received a bonus of .53 for going 53-5, bumping up its score from 2.78 to 3.31.

7. Northwestern
Adjusted average: 2.75

Hit rate: 100%

Class rank in 2014: 47th

Four-year record: 32-19

Top signees: RB Justin Jackson, QB Clayton Thorson, OL Tommy Doles, OL Blake Hance, DB Kyle Queiro

What is Northwestern doing here? These rankings were intended to value retention and production. And Pat Fitzgerald and his staff have retained every player in their 16-man recruiting class. Jackson became the school’s all-time leading rusher after four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. A bunch of multiyear starters emerged, and Northwestern even developed a walk-on (OL J.B. Butler) into a 17-game starter. No wonder the Wildcats pulled off a pair of 10-win seasons with these guys. Is this class full of future NFL players? Maybe not. But you can’t ask for much more than what the Wildcats got out of this group.​

https://theathletic.com/244180/2018/02/20/college-football-recruiting-class-of-2014-ranking/

Thanks, nice read. It captures the crux of NU’s recruiting philosophy and shows that NU’s staff is very good at talent identification/development.
 
Not sure if any of you subscribe to the newish sports publication The Athletic, but a) it's fantastic and b) there was an article yesterday that looked back at the 2014 recruiting class and re-ranked the top 25 based on how the class panned out. NU, initially rated as the 47th best class, came out at #7 in the re-ranking. Relevant portion of interest below:

Here is the point system we used to re-evaluate every 2014 signee, inspired by the recruiting industry’s traditional five-star rating metric.

5 points: All-American, top-50 NFL draft pick
4: Multiyear starter, all-conference honors
3: One-year starter or key reserve
2: Career backup
0: Left the program, minor or no contribution

We counted both 2014 scholarship signees and any 2014 walk-ons who became starters or key contributors. We’re using the 247Sports Composite for all 2014 class and recruit rankings. Some classes will look even better (or worse) one year from now after the fifth-year seniors graduate. But for this project, we evaluated what a player has done so far.

Some players driving this study, 12 of the top 25 recruits and 20 of the top 50, are in the NFL, led by the nation’s top three individual recruits in 2014 — Leonard Fournette, Myles Garrett and Jabrill Peppers. Did many players fall well short of expectations? Sure. But the 2014 class also produced a few true program-changing talents.

Because class sizes vary, with some as large as 31 signees and some as small as 16, we used total points divided by total signees to establish the new top 25. The “hit rate” listed with each class is simply the percentage of signees who did not leave the program via transfer, dismissal, ineligibility or injuries.

Because the scoring system is primarily a measure of players’ production and retention, we also needed to account for team success. So we added a bonus to each team’s average, derived from its total number of wins from 2014 through 2017. Alabama’s class, for example, received a bonus of .53 for going 53-5, bumping up its score from 2.78 to 3.31.

7. Northwestern
Adjusted average: 2.75

Hit rate: 100%

Class rank in 2014: 47th

Four-year record: 32-19

Top signees: RB Justin Jackson, QB Clayton Thorson, OL Tommy Doles, OL Blake Hance, DB Kyle Queiro

What is Northwestern doing here? These rankings were intended to value retention and production. And Pat Fitzgerald and his staff have retained every player in their 16-man recruiting class. Jackson became the school’s all-time leading rusher after four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. A bunch of multiyear starters emerged, and Northwestern even developed a walk-on (OL J.B. Butler) into a 17-game starter. No wonder the Wildcats pulled off a pair of 10-win seasons with these guys. Is this class full of future NFL players? Maybe not. But you can’t ask for much more than what the Wildcats got out of this group.​

https://theathletic.com/244180/2018/02/20/college-football-recruiting-class-of-2014-ranking/
Kyle Quiero was class of 2013, not 2014. Did they get him confused with his brother?
 
Thanks, nice read. It captures the crux of NU’s recruiting philosophy and shows that NU’s staff is very good at talent identification/development.

Whatever Fitz and his staff are doing on the recruiting front, it seems to be working, star ratings be damned. I had a notion that this type of analysis would shed better light on previous recruiting classes and show how the recruiting rankings are a crap shoot.
 
Whatever Fitz and his staff are doing on the recruiting front, it seems to be working, star ratings be damned. I had a notion that this type of analysis would shed better light on previous recruiting classes and show how the recruiting rankings are a crap shoot.

Some things are working. We still have zero titles during his tenure.
 
How many different teams have titles during his tenure? Serious question. 5?
 
Four. NU has as many titles as Michigan.

OSU '06, 07, 08 (tie), 09, 14, 17
PSU '08 (tie), 16
MSU '10 (tie), 13, 15
Wisconsin '10 (tie), 11, 12
Lots of failed coaches since Fitz took over, apparently.
 
Some things are working. We still have zero titles during his tenure.

Lots of failed coaches since Fitz took over, apparently.

Fitz has done a very good job so far. But I (cautiously) agree with ECat that the program needs to get to the next level, actually winning the championships that Fitz has promised. I believe it's not a question of "if", but "when" he wins his first B1G championship.
 
Fitz has done a very good job so far. But I (cautiously) agree with ECat that the program needs to get to the next level, actually winning the championships that Fitz has promised. I believe it's not a question of "if", but "when" he wins his first B1G championship.
In the current world of Power 5 recruiting, I think it will remain "if" and not "when". OSU will always be loaded and PSU a force. But I can imagine the day NU wins the West.
 
Fitz has done a very good job so far. But I (cautiously) agree with ECat that the program needs to get to the next level, actually winning the championships that Fitz has promised. I believe it's not a question of "if", but "when" he wins his first B1G championship.

I’m curious. Which championships has Fitz promised. I remember him saying championship are the goal, but I can’t seem to remember any promises. Maybe my brain is too old. Or maybe....
 
Fitz has done a very good job so far. But I (cautiously) agree with ECat that the program needs to get to the next level, actually winning the championships that Fitz has promised. I believe it's not a question of "if", but "when" he wins his first B1G championship.

Let's walk before we run. NU has to win the Big Ten West first. That should be a realistic goal every year considering recruiting juggernauts Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State are on the other side.

The problem, of course, is that Wisconsin is starting to gain on those three. That's what winning the West year after year will do for a program's reputation.
 
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