REPORT: Big Ten waiting on Notre Dame's decision before potential negotiations with Oregon, Washington
The Big Ten Conference's recent expansion might not be over...
B10 waiting on ND.
- Thread starter 12375CAT
- Start date
Word is that while the other Pac schools were blindsided by the 2 LA schools, the powers that be in South Bend were not.
That's the reason why ND's decision should be coming relatively shortly.
That's the reason why ND's decision should be coming relatively shortly.
If ND to the B1G (which makes all the sense in the world), then I think the calculus on next moves changes, as it's no longer what it takes to get ND. Or maybe not.
Assuming you get to an even 20, I think maybe we still take Stanford to keep that rivalry intact for ND, get the NorCal Market, and give the California schools another regional partner. Or maybe you tell ND to schedule Stanford OOC and you take Cal and their much larger alumni base.
Then probably UW and Oregon to get to 20 and give you a West Coast division.
Or Preferably UT/TAMU and UF. I know it's a moonshot, but it's what Chuck Norris would do - and it hurts the SEC, pushes us into the only region where we aren't to make us truly national including the most fertile recruiting grounds in the country.
Honestly, if UT had not already been in the SEC, I think they would be B1G after this weekend. Still think it's possible. Then again, had UT not gone to the SEC, not sure USC would have been moving.
Texas, aTm, and Florida are not leaving the SEC. Washington and Oregon are realistic targets, along with Stanford and Cal.
I only hope that if TSISB is brought into the tent they are given "no special treatment, favors or rules" over the other BIG schools.
The powers that be in the U of Cal system are former B1G and everyone is surprised the Cat didn’t get out of the bag earlier then Thursday Morning
At this juncture, ND needs the B1G (or the SEC) more than B1G needs the Domers.
But the one accommodation they may grant the Domers is the choice of who to bring in as the 18th school (as long as it makes sense - i.e. Stanford or UNC; BC wouldn't cut it).
Btw, also heard that the LA schools are happy to leave Oregon behind; both being sick of all that Phil Knight $$ enabling Oregon to snag players from their backyard, so don't know how much that'll play into things if the B1G wants to continue expanding.
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I said they were moonshots. They are perhaps the only plays (other than ND) that would pay for themselves at this point. Washington and Oregon made a lot of sense to me until I read the article on the FOX Insider who revealed that they wouldn't pay for themselves. Hard to fathom that we are going to make adds that don't enlarge the pie.
Without doing the math, the only other schools that might plausibly make sense in terms of enlargening the pie (either through DMAs or football cache) are:
Florida State or Miami (football cache including exposure into Florida recruiting)
Clemson purely for football cache (but they are not AAU and tiny DMA)
UNC (if RDU + Charlotte are sufficiently big)
Arizona (if they land you Phoenix DMA)
Georgia Tech (if they land Atlanta DMA, which I'm not too sure about)
Pretty much it.
Not saying any of these are going to be adds, or necessarily be willing to come to the B1G over the SEC . Just ones that might enlarge our pie.
The B1G has to add to their west coast presence. Makes no sense to have only the two LA teams for a host of reasons. UW and UO make the most sense to have a west coast presence and would imagine the pie is still bigger on a net basis.
Here are the current media rights agreement and the grant of rights agreements for each conference;
*B1G Media Rights Agreement and Grant of Rights Agreement expire in 2023/24
*Pac 12 Media Rights Agreement and Grant of Rights Agreement expire in 2023/24
*Big XII Media Rights Agreement and Grand of Rights Agreement expire in 2024
*Notre Dame NBC Media Rights Agreement expires in 2025
*ACC Media Rights Agreement expires in 2023/24. ACC Grant of Rights Agreement expires in 2036.
*SEC Media Rights Agreement with CBS expires in 2023/24. SEC Media Rights Agreement with ESPN/ABC expires in 2034. SEC Grant of Rights Agreement expires in 2034
**B1G Network is owned by; FOX SPORTS (61% by Fox Corp/39% by B1G)
**ACC Network is owned by; ESPN (80% Disney/20% Hearst Corp)
**SEC Network is owned by; ESPN (80% Disney/20% Hearst Corp)
**Pac-12 Network is owned by; Pac-12 Conference
**Big XII does not own their own network (Texas Longhorn Network (ESPN, UT & Learfield) will cease ops after SEC move)
*B1G Media Rights Agreement and Grant of Rights Agreement expire in 2023/24
*Pac 12 Media Rights Agreement and Grant of Rights Agreement expire in 2023/24
*Big XII Media Rights Agreement and Grand of Rights Agreement expire in 2024
*Notre Dame NBC Media Rights Agreement expires in 2025
*ACC Media Rights Agreement expires in 2023/24. ACC Grant of Rights Agreement expires in 2036.
*SEC Media Rights Agreement with CBS expires in 2023/24. SEC Media Rights Agreement with ESPN/ABC expires in 2034. SEC Grant of Rights Agreement expires in 2034
**B1G Network is owned by; FOX SPORTS (61% by Fox Corp/39% by B1G)
**ACC Network is owned by; ESPN (80% Disney/20% Hearst Corp)
**SEC Network is owned by; ESPN (80% Disney/20% Hearst Corp)
**Pac-12 Network is owned by; Pac-12 Conference
**Big XII does not own their own network (Texas Longhorn Network (ESPN, UT & Learfield) will cease ops after SEC move)
They don't have to do anything now that they are a national conference. Adding exposure in the Texas and Florida recruiting grounds would be expand the national footprint and make the B1G more competitive with the SEC.
They may indeed add a few West Coast schools, but they could just as well stand pat or add ND +1. However, I doubt we do anything that isn't making the pie bigger. And the Fox Insider said Oregon and Washington don't even come close to paying their own way.
Texas and Florida are not leaving the SEC. Full stop. It’s pointless to discuss even as a thought exercise.
And it makes sense to add on the west coast mostly for logistical reasons, at least give those teams a couple away games every year that don’t involve cross-country travel. The “pie” is based on adding the whole group of west coast teams, awful method to look at each school individually.
You are likely right about UT and Florida, though I give it a moonshot chance in hell, just because of the economics.
The whole it makes sense to add on the west coast I understand and don't completely disagree with -- there are a lot of reasons why it makes sense.
But, none of them outweigh the financial considerations, I suspect. If we wanted to add UW and Oregon, we could have and would have done it with USC and UCLA. Chartered planes and scheduling road trips involving multiple teams become practical when you're dealing with several millions of dollars more in revenue, while eating several millions of dollars because your pie piece shrunk just so kids can play closer to home doesn't make sense.
There is one school we are considering and waiting for, and it's ND, because it's likely the only one where the financial considerations make sense. ND + anyone who they want to seal the deal with them, assuming the addition + ND is still pie enlargening (I think it would be with Stanford given NorCal DMA). Maybe we do take Oregon and Washington just to make it an easy 20 if we insist on operating in 4 divisions, but per the Fox Insider, it would mean sub-optimizing financially.
I think it was done in this manner to put maximum pressure on ND with longtime rival USC in the boat already.
Mixed emotions about UW joining but it probably makes more sense than Oregon. Royal Purple trumps Duck Orange.
duck, duck
I heard mention that the Texas to SEC move was not formally completed yet. Does anyone have more information?
Hope Stanford or Cal is in the mix. California is a big State, so deserves more representation.
If the Big Ten takes ND, gotta take one of Stanford or Cal right (or UNC)? And then Oregon and Washington round out the West Coast.
Some of the schools in the ACC would be interesting, but it would make more sense geographically to build out the West Coast arm of the Big Ten. Plus, the ACC Grant of Rights is unforgiving.
Chartering planes and scheduling road trips becomes practical for CFB and to an extent for CBB because of the massive money involved. But keep in mind there are like 15 other non-revenue sports too - does it make sense for the USC volleyball team or the Rutgers field hockey team to be taking cross country flights regularly for road matchups? That's the reason for potentially adding 2-3 more West Coast teams to complement USC and UCLA. You can have unbalanced schedules in those non-revenue sports to make the travel more palatable.
This 100%! ND has absolutely no leverage here. They can join ACC and earn way less than BIG and SEC, they can go back to full independent but it’s doubtful they will make as much as BIG schools plus what do they do with other sports, they can join SeC (I have serious doubts they want to join a league with a terrible academic profile), or join BIG.
BIG should say “you can join but no special dispensations (like we want Stanford or Cal to join). Take it or leave it.
There’s a new plan. We’re going to kiss the Blarney Stone instead. Blarney should kick Fitz’s coach-speak into high gear.
The latest scuttlebutt (for what it's worth) is that the Domers are leaning towards remaining independent in football for the time being (not really surprised that ND would try to remain independent for as long as they can make it work).
That would mean the end of expansion (for the time being), except, the word is that Phil Knight is determined to get Oregon into the B1G, and failing that, the SEC (and failing that, he'll probably turn to the ACC).
Phil is getting up there in age and he can't take his fortune with him, so throwing around some of that $$ to secure the Ducks future would be worth it for him (if Phil gets Oregon into the B1G, they probably will build a shrine to him).
Conference expansion is all about the $$ and as I had stated before, Nike could offer the B1G a 9 or even 10 figure sponsorship deal.
In addition, dOSU, USC, UM, PSU, MSU and Iowa are all Nike schools.
Nike can always also sweeten the pot to those schools (while USC is annoyed with the Ducks for coming into their backyard and snaring recruits, they seem to have no problem taking Nike $$).
Going back to the Domers, if they do decide to join the B1G, can see the conference stopping there (unless they and the SEC go to 24 schools each and basically gobble 80-90% of the broadcast/streaming revenue).
On their own, no other school would keep the slice of the pie as large (not Clemson nor FSU), so the B1G will make do with oddity of having an odd # of schools (they've already done it before when they added PSU).
Now, if Knight is going to pony up the $$ like aforementioned, that changes the equation.
One part of the calculation for the Domers staying independent for at least a while longer is that recruiting has never been better for them.
Was concerned when the Domers promoted Freeman; don't think Swarbrick was too sad in seeing the screamer depart for LSU since he ended up with the better coach/recruiter at a lower price.
Fitz is going to have to really up the recruiting at the QB and wideout positions if he ever wants the chance of beating the Domers again.
That would mean the end of expansion (for the time being), except, the word is that Phil Knight is determined to get Oregon into the B1G, and failing that, the SEC (and failing that, he'll probably turn to the ACC).
Phil is getting up there in age and he can't take his fortune with him, so throwing around some of that $$ to secure the Ducks future would be worth it for him (if Phil gets Oregon into the B1G, they probably will build a shrine to him).
Conference expansion is all about the $$ and as I had stated before, Nike could offer the B1G a 9 or even 10 figure sponsorship deal.
In addition, dOSU, USC, UM, PSU, MSU and Iowa are all Nike schools.
Nike can always also sweeten the pot to those schools (while USC is annoyed with the Ducks for coming into their backyard and snaring recruits, they seem to have no problem taking Nike $$).
Going back to the Domers, if they do decide to join the B1G, can see the conference stopping there (unless they and the SEC go to 24 schools each and basically gobble 80-90% of the broadcast/streaming revenue).
On their own, no other school would keep the slice of the pie as large (not Clemson nor FSU), so the B1G will make do with oddity of having an odd # of schools (they've already done it before when they added PSU).
Now, if Knight is going to pony up the $$ like aforementioned, that changes the equation.
One part of the calculation for the Domers staying independent for at least a while longer is that recruiting has never been better for them.
Was concerned when the Domers promoted Freeman; don't think Swarbrick was too sad in seeing the screamer depart for LSU since he ended up with the better coach/recruiter at a lower price.
Fitz is going to have to really up the recruiting at the QB and wideout positions if he ever wants the chance of beating the Domers again.
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Of course it doesn't make sense in a vacuum. I'm talking about subsidizing the travel for the non-revenue sports because the overall revenue for CFB is going to much, much more than what you'd have to pay for the extra travel. And you can save by chartering planes and scheduling so all your winter teams are going to the same city on the same trips and flying the same planes. A jet with 300 seats can carry a bunch of athletes and staff from more than one team.
Will the players have to pay for a carry on ?
NU Alum, new to this site, and really enjoying reading the discussion. I was thinking the same Evanston Cat. IF ND were to join the Big10, wouldn't it behoove the B10 to at least backchannel Texas to see if they would be interest (and A&M but they are even less likely to join). It's a moonshot, but Texas hasn't played a snap in the SEC and it would be a better academic fit (which I think matters to UT). While the $$$s might not be materially different, in the SEC the Texas and A&M markets overlap and thus are of less TV value together. Texas on its own is worth much more to the B10 (read FOX) and I'm sure Texas joining the B10 would significantly increase the pie and I'd argue that they could make more in the B10 over the long run (as their joining would conversely decrease the SEC pie) . The move would make the B10 a truly national conference (only missing a school in Florida....) and open up a key recruiting and TV market.
I read elsewhere that the B10 is considering Clemson, and while I take that with a grain of salt, if that were the case then the B10 should reconsider accepting Oklahoma if its a requirement to pry Texas from the SEC. Oklahoma is a land grant school and would much better fit the B10 mold even though they are not AAU. In a dream scenario Texas would come alone.
IMO this would be a chess move on the part of the B10 as it would corner the SEC. This latest round of expansion is all about TV money and name brands. Outside of North Carolina, what other home run options would the SEC have to expand west/far north? The SEC no longer has a viable California option, all the remaining B12 and Pac 12 options are horrible (assuming one or both of Oregon and Washington join the expanded B10) and in the east Clemson, FSU, Miami, are all in current SEC footprints and barely expand the TV pie while the other ACC schools don't move the needle. In order for the SEC to grow the avg school payout would need to significantly decrease given the remaining expansion options (outside of Clemson and UNC) - while the B10 would have better options. In the LONG RUN a National B10 with OSU, Mich, Penn State, ND, USC, and Texas is >>> than a regional SEC with Bama, Georgia, LSU, Florida, A&M, and Oklahoma.
Again realize it's a moonshot, but worth a try given the potential benefits for the B10. All hinges on ND joining though....
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The TX ship has sailed. We could offer them something significantly better vs the BIG 12 but any improvement vs the SEC would be more incremental. Same with FL. Only thing that might change that is if TX, FL viewed the BIG as the ultimate winner rather than just one of two. Southern schools have not tended to come north late in the year and I don't see them as willing to at this point when they do not have to.
There's always the next round of contract negotiations in 10 years. I doubt that the B1G and SEC will remain static indefinitely.
Never said they would be static. Just that at present, it looks like the last two standing of big time conferences. The BIG has a lot to offer vs Big 12, PAC 12 and even ACC but not really vs SEC. Will that be subtantially different in 10 years? While it could be it is more likely that it will not
Football drives the bus, but it’s not the only consideration. Do schools like ND, UNC, UVA want to be associated with miss st. South Carolina, auburn or schools like UCLA, Michigan, Wisconsin? University presidents are making these decisions and for them it’s an easy answer. That’s why BIG can pretty much get any team not currently in SEC.
that’s why I also
Think prestigious schools like Stanford and Duke will be invited to the party eventually.
No, but if you go hunting and try to bring game on the plane, you have to pay to carry on carrion
I agree with earlier comments that if we get Notre Dame, we go to 18 (for even numbers) and stop. Who cares if the SEC has 20 or more? This is all about each school’s payout growing, adding teams is not intrinsically good. Besides, did it hurt the AL having two fewer teams than the NL for all those years?
