B1G Massive D strength vs NU's very weak O complicates NU path to champ game

[FeliSilvestris]

The NU D is for real, by any reasonable measure. Only the injury bug seems capable of preventing NU from ending among the nation's D leaders.

Unfortunately that is not much of an edge in the B1G this year, because the conference D strength is massive.

The S&P D rankings (they use a number of nontraditional but very sensible measures in much the same way KenPom does it for BkB) eloquently tell the story.

Of the nation's top 15 D, 7 are in the B1G! Unfortunately for the cats, FIVE of them are in their schedule.

The top one in the B1G is (you guessed it) that of our next opponent, Mich (4th nationally), while the cats are #10 in the nation. Others top B1G D's are: OSU (#6), Minny, Ill, PSU and Wiscy (11-14).

Of the remaining scheduled conference foes, IOA is still strong at #38, whereas Nebby and Purdue ranked about 80, seem the only relatively weak upcoming D's.

This clearly does not bode well for a team with a RS-frosh as QB who has been at best inconsistent.

On the flip side, Nebby's O is #24, the O's of Wiscy, IOA and Mich are ranked in the 40's, PSU #68, PU #80, and Ill #95.

Unfortunately NU's O is #105.

The path to the championship game may be much more complicated than many think. NU's strong D is nearly matched by the D fielded by most of its rivals. Unfortunately, NU's VERY weak O is way below that of most of NU's rivals. The advantage goes clearly to the rivals that have nearly as strong D but significantly stronger O.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Feli,

Your glass isn't half empty. It's freakin broken, bro.

 

[spartcat]

Did you mention Minnesota?

 

[PZAZ]

O.M.G. Feli. Not again. I bet if we win the B1G or get into the national playoffs, you'll be writing why we are bad, can't win, etc. What's up with you? OSU is #1 and they barely beat Purdue. No one is perfect. The bottom line is that WE ARE WINNING.

 

[nycat33]

I think feli is right, The cats certainly struggled against Minnesota.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Did you mention Minnesota?

I did, but the emphasis was on upcoming opponents.
Minny presumably was very limited by injuries when it faced NU, anyhow.

 

[stpaulcat]

The NU D is for real, by any reasonable measure. Only the injury bug seems capable of preventing NU from ending among the nation's D leaders.

Unfortunately that is not much of an edge in the B1G this year, because the conference D strength is massive.

The S&P D rankings (they use a number of nontraditional but very sensible measures in much the same way KenPom does it for BkB) eloquently tell the story.

Of the nation's top 15 D, 7 are in the B1G! Unfortunately for the cats, FIVE of them are in their schedule.

The top one in the B1G is (you guessed it) that of our next opponent, Mich (4th nationally), while the cats are #10 in the nation. Others top B1G D's are: OSU (#6), Minny, Ill, PSU and Wiscy (11-14).

Of the remaining scheduled conference foes, IOA is still strong at #38, whereas Nebby and Purdue ranked about 80, seem the only relatively weak upcoming D's.

This clearly does not bode well for a team with a RS-frosh as QB who has been at best inconsistent.

On the flip side, Nebby's O is #24, the O's of Wiscy, IOA and Mich are ranked in the 40's, PSU #68, PU #80, and Ill #95.

Unfortunately NU's O is #105.

The path to the championship game may be much more complicated than many think. NU's strong D is nearly matched by the D fielded by most of its rivals. Unfortunately, NU's VERY weak O is way below that of most of NU's rivals. The advantage goes clearly to the rivals that have nearly as strong D but significantly stronger O.

Debbie (Downer) does Dyche.

 

[mikewebb68]

Illinois' D is NOT good, it is just that they have played a ton of offensively challenged teams.

 

[Aging Booster]

I would love to see my alma mater in the Big Ten championship game, but I think that any talk of that nature, whether hopeful or dismissive, is very premature. We have played ONE conference game. I think that this team could have a great year: 9-4 or 10-3 would be a great year. I hate to see expectations fueled by early victories render this type of success a disappointment. As for the even more troubling remarks about NU playing for the national championship THIS YEAR, well, I just consider the source. Let's enjoy this year for whatever it brings. We have a good team - it promises to be fun, even if a few losses are thrown in.

 

[hollandnucat]

So what is wrong with dreaming big for your school! NU has played one conference game but has also played 3 BCS quality teams. In my world it is never to early to dream. Will I be disappointed with a 9-4 record now that we are 5-0...yes because this team has shown they should expect a better than 4-4 record to close the season. Sorry but I am a glass 3/4 full person.

 

[Turk]

I dont think nu offense is veryweak. I think it has graduated into the interesting category over the past 6 quarters. i havent seen thorson miss many passes over the last 6 quarters. What is interesting is our 3rd down conversion rate, especially 3rd and 1.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Illinois' D is NOT good, it is just that they have played a ton of offensively challenged teams.

Yep, the Tar Heels didn't have much trouble with the Illini defense.

 

[hdhntr1]

So what is wrong with dreaming big for your school! NU has played one conference game but has also played 3 BCS quality teams. In my world it is never to early to dream. Will I be disappointed with a 9-4 record now that we are 5-0...yes because this team has shown they should expect a better than 4-4 record to close the season. Sorry but I am a glass 3/4 full person.

Wait till after the next two games to talk championship. If we win, we will deserve to be in the conversation. If not...

 

[Hungry Jack]

I would love to see my alma mater in the Big Ten championship game, but I think that any talk of that nature, whether hopeful or dismissive, is very premature. We have played ONE conference game. I think that this team could have a great year: 9-4 or 10-3 would be a great year. I hate to see expectations fueled by early victories render this type of success a disappointment. As for the even more troubling remarks about NU playing for the national championship THIS YEAR, well, I just consider the source. Let's enjoy this year for whatever it brings. We have a good team - it promises to be fun, even if a few losses are thrown in.

+1

Forget the destination. Just enjoy the ride.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I dont think nu offense is veryweak. I think it has graduated into the interesting category over the past 6 quarters. i havent seen thorson miss many passes over the last 6 quarters. What is interesting is our 3rd down conversion rate, especially 3rd and 1.

+1

It's easy too forget how quickly young teams can develop as they acquire experience. Thankfully Thorson has shown significant development with each passing week. I don't expect a smooth, linear progression, but he has clearly made progress. Michigan offers yet another step up in terms of competition for him. People should not freak if he struggles at times.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

I think feli is right, The cats certainly struggled against Minnesota.

Indeed they did. In spite of Minny's severe injury-caused limitations, the NU's O only managed 13 "true" pts (one TD was scored by the D, and another was "almost" scored by ST, since the O just ran one play to turn a big return into a TD).

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Yep, the Tar Heels didn't have much trouble with the Illini defense.

True. OTOH, Nebraska has a pretty good O, yet it only managed 13 pts against the Ill. I have no idea why they looked so awful against NC.

 

[CommodoresAndCats]

I feel like you are just determined to be unhappy no matter what at this point. Sit back, enjoy that the cats are 5-0 and may have a shot at making it to the Big ten championship.

 

[hollandnucat]

I think ESPN is going to have a new stat thanks to Feli called "true" points. So if a team is up by over 2 scores with a strong defense in the 2nd half are they going to try to run clock and get more conservative with their offense? yes. NU could have scored more against Minnesota with the risk of turnover.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

The NU D is for real, by any reasonable measure. Only the injury bug seems capable of preventing NU from ending among the nation's D leaders.

Unfortunately that is not much of an edge in the B1G this year, because the conference D strength is massive.

The S&P D rankings (they use a number of nontraditional but very sensible measures in much the same way KenPom does it for BkB) eloquently tell the story.....

On the flip side, Nebby's O is #24, the O's of Wiscy, IOA and Mich are ranked in the 40's, PSU #68, PU #80, and Ill #95.

Unfortunately NU's O is #105.

BTW, here are updated rankings (FWIW):
O
Mich 53
IOA 48
Nebby 26
PSU 57
PU 69
Wiscy 55
Ill 86
NU 100

D
NU 6
Mich 3
IOA 21
Nebby 54
PSU 16
PU 76
Wiscy 11
Ill 9

On paper the best match-up for NU is Purdue, whose O isn't that great, and whose D is much weaker than NU's. The iLL game points to a 0-0 score at end of regulation. The Nebby game could be close with each team having a significant edge depending on which side of the LoS each is.
IOA, PSU and Wiscy don't look good for NU since each' D is only marginally weaker than NU's, but the corresponding O is much stronger than NU's O.
The Mich game will be a huge challenge with the Wolverines having a tiny advantage on D, and a big advantage on O.

 

[hollandnucat]

As coaches say stats are for losers...Games are not played on paper, yardage stats can be very misleading the only thing that matters is the scoreboard.

 

[hdhntr1]

Indeed they did. In spite of Minny's severe injury-caused limitations, the NU's O only managed 13 "true" pts (one TD was scored by the D, and another was "almost" scored by ST, since the O just ran one play to turn a big return into a TD).

And MN managed ZERO. MN was a top 20 points against D and that gave up about 15 pts per game. Playing against good Ds will limit your offense. That is what they are supposed to do

 

[Hans81]

Not sure why some North_estern posters still insist on spelling Iowa without the "w" as I thought after last year's 48 to 7 beat down at the hands of the Hawks, Iowa had won back the "w". Actually, Iowa owns the "w" now based on their decisive win over North_western

 

[gocatsgo2003]

Not sure why some North_estern posters still insist on spelling Iowa without the "w" as I thought after last year's 48 to 7 beat down at the hands of the Hawks, Iowa had won back the "w". Actually, Iowa owns the "w" now based on their decisive win over North_western

So close to successfully completing the troll. Lost it right there at the end.

 

[iskaboo]

Even if Cats win
I can turn it into loss
FeliSilvestris

 

[Katatonic]

Not sure why some North_estern posters still insist on spelling Iowa without the "w" as I thought after last year's 48 to 7 beat down at the hands of the Hawks, Iowa had won back the "w". Actually, Iowa owns the "w" now based on their decisive win over North_western

Unlike Iowa fans, NU fans have standards - takes more than a couple wins to get back the W.

 

[pawildcat]

BTW, here are updated rankings (FWIW):
O
Mich 53
IOA 48
Nebby 26
PSU 57
PU 69
Wiscy 55
Ill 86
NU 100

D
NU 6
Mich 3
IOA 21
Nebby 54
PSU 16
PU 76
Wiscy 11
Ill 9

On paper the best match-up for NU is Purdue, whose O isn't that great, and whose D is much weaker than NU's. The iLL game points to a 0-0 score at end of regulation. The Nebby game could be close with each team having a significant edge depending on which side of the LoS each is.
IOA, PSU and Wiscy don't look good for NU since each' D is only marginally weaker than NU's, but the corresponding O is much stronger than NU's O.
The Mich game will be a huge challenge with the Wolverines having a tiny advantage on D, and a big advantage on O.

I've been watching Penn State most of the season. I don't give a damn what the rankings say; they are not a better offense than Northwestern. Their o-line will get stuffed against any decent defensive front. They had trouble contending with Army defenders last week who were giving away 30 pounds per man.

 

[mikewebb68]

True. OTOH, Nebraska has a pretty good O, yet it only managed 13 pts against the Ill. I have no idea why they looked so awful against NC.

Uh, because you don't watch the games? Nebraska is offensively challenged at this point, due to injuries and other factors (e.g., horrific coaching).

 

[mikewebb68]

BTW, here are updated rankings (FWIW):
O
Mich 53
IOA 48
Nebby 26
PSU 57
PU 69
Wiscy 55
Ill 86
NU 100

D
NU 6
Mich 3
IOA 21
Nebby 54
PSU 16
PU 76
Wiscy 11
Ill 9

On paper the best match-up for NU is Purdue, whose O isn't that great, and whose D is much weaker than NU's. The iLL game points to a 0-0 score at end of regulation. The Nebby game could be close with each team having a significant edge depending on which side of the LoS each is.
IOA, PSU and Wiscy don't look good for NU since each' D is only marginally weaker than NU's, but the corresponding O is much stronger than NU's O.
The Mich game will be a huge challenge with the Wolverines having a tiny advantage on D, and a big advantage on O.

Please just turn on the TV every once in awhile and watch a football game. The chances of the Illinois game being 0-0 at the end of regulation is about the same as you being 100 percent correct in your posts for an entire week...

 

[Walker Fan]

Yes, NU has a tough schedule ahead, but nothing overwhelming. NU's most winnable games are Purdue, Illinois and Penn State. NU's toughest games will be today at UM, Iowa and at UW and at Nebby. We all know that. My keys are the development of the QB, OL and winning the TO battle. Jim Miller of BTN brought up a good point in games with stout defenses, look for trick plays to try to take advantage of aggressive defense (e.g. a WR option pass or double reverse which I have seen UM run or maybe a trick play on special teams). This is where we also get to evaluate the coaches' and their risk tolerance. It will be a fun and interesting game to watch today and the best game by far in Big 10. Unfortunately, BTN still is featuring OSU - Maryland and Rutgers - MSU before they cover UM-NU.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Uh, because you don't watch the games? Nebraska is offensively challenged at this point, due to injuries and other factors (e.g., horrific coaching).

Right...that must be why they are ranked SECOND in the conference in total offense....

Then again, who needs actual hard evidence, when you can just go by Internet goofs who claim to just "watch games"??....I suppose you have watched the vast majority of UNL's O plays, else you wouldn't dare comment on them, right?

 

[mikewebb68]

Right...that must be why they are ranked SECOND in the conference in total offense....

Then again, who needs actual hard evidence, when you can just go by Internet goofs who claim to just "watch games"??....I suppose you have watched the vast majority of UNL's O plays, else you wouldn't dare comment on them, right?

If we played Southern Miss, S Alabama and BYU, our offense would be near the top of the BIG as well. This is why you need to actually WATCH the games.... FYI, I am watching a farily pedestrian Iowa offense do whatever it wants against your highly touted Illini D right now....Still think our game vs. them will be 0-0 at the end of regulation?

Stats are for Felis.

 

[Eurocat]

Feli was right.

 

[mikewebb68]

Feli was right.

How was Feli right? About the strength of the Illini D? Nebraska's offense? The fact the our game with the Illini projects to be 0-0 at the end of regulation?

 

[Mr. Stupor]

Feli,

Your glass isn't half empty. It's freakin broken, bro.

Why even bother with this sad excuse for a fan. Just put him on ignore and be done with it.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

How was Feli right? About the strength of the Illini D? Nebraska's offense? The fact the our game with the Illini projects to be 0-0 at the end of regulation?

I suppose he meant I was right when I wrote:
"The Mich game will be a huge challenge with the Wolverines having a tiny advantage on D, and a big advantage on O."
I certainly wish to have been proven wrong.
The rankings are what they are. I did NOT make them myself, just reported them. I put a link to the source, and explained they use some non-traditional metrics ( a la KenPon in BkB). Take them seriously if you want, discount them o/w. It is your damn business.
Regrettably, I still see the PU game as the only one in which the cats should be clear favorites. IOA, PSU and Wiscy will be major challenges, as explained. Nebby will be desperate for a home victory and probably will "circle" our game as one they should have to "salvage" their season. Ill is a rivalry game...who the heck knows what will happen?
If I had to bet, I'll probably bet this will be yet another 3-win B1G season under PF...but wouldn't be shocked if it is a one-win season, and would be pleasantly surprised (but not shocked) if the cats manage to win 4 more B1G games...don't see them in the championship game at all.