B1G power rankings / tiers

[ricko654321]

After the wins of Purdue, Wiscy, Maryland tonight, it seems to me that the conference is at least temporarily starting to segregate into tiers of a sort...

Tier A- tourney locks / conf champ contenders
1. Wisconsin (6-1)
2. Purdue (6-2)
3. Maryland (6-1)

Tier B- in tourney currently but work to do / lurking outside of the conference race
4. Northwestern (5-2)
5. Indiana (4-3)
6. Minnesota (3-4)
7. Michigan St (4-4)

In between... on the outside looking in but still close
8. Michigan (3-4)

Tier C- off the bubble currently, but not completely out / still somewhat dangerous
9. Ohio St (2-5)
10. Iowa (3-4)
11. Illinois (2-5)
12. Penn St (3-5)
13. Nebraska (3-4)

A tier of their own-
14. Rutgers (1-7)

If we manage to win 2 this week I think we earn a way into the top tier at least for now... though I'm still targeting 10 conference wins as an initial goal personally, if we hit that then we can add on from there.

Go Cats!

 

[ricko654321]

After the wins of Purdue, Wiscy, Maryland tonight, it seems to me that the conference is at least temporarily starting to segregate into tiers of a sort...

Tier A- tourney locks / conf champ contenders
1. Wisconsin (6-1)
2. Purdue (6-2)
3. Maryland (6-1)

Tier B- in tourney currently but work to do / lurking outside of the conference race
4. Northwestern (5-2)
5. Indiana (4-3)
6. Minnesota (3-4)
7. Michigan St (4-4)

In between... on the outside looking in but still close
8. Michigan (3-4)

Tier C- off the bubble currently, but not completely out / still somewhat dangerous
9. Ohio St (2-5)
10. Iowa (3-4)
11. Illinois (2-5)
12. Penn St (3-5)
13. Nebraska (3-4)

A tier of their own-
14. Rutgers (1-7)

If we manage to win 2 this week I think we earn a way into the top tier at least for now... though I'm still targeting 10 conference wins as an initial goal personally, if we hit that then we can add on from there.

Go Cats!

And wanted to throw in here as a follow up, our remaining schedule is as follows...
Tier A- 2 home, 2 away
Tier B- 1.5 home, 1 away
Tier C- 2.5 home, 1 away
Rutgers- 1 home
(I split Michigan 50/50 between the tiers)

And thus far we have played...
Tier A- None
Tier B- 1 home, 1 away (0-2)
Tier C- 1 home, 3 away (4-0)
Rutgers- 1 away (1-0)

This helps illustrate why we have not yet earned our way into the top tier of the B1G. We haven't beaten anyone in the top 2 tiers, and we still have the far tougher part of our schedule remaining. Good thing is we've played 5/7 on the road, and have 7/11 at home left. Saddle up Wildcat fans, it's gonna be a fun ride.

 

[ricko654321]

After the wins of Purdue, Wiscy, Maryland tonight, it seems to me that the conference is at least temporarily starting to segregate into tiers of a sort...

Tier A- tourney locks / conf champ contenders
1. Wisconsin (6-1)
2. Purdue (6-2)
3. Maryland (6-1)

Tier B- in tourney currently but work to do / lurking outside of the conference race
4. Northwestern (5-2)
5. Indiana (4-3)
6. Minnesota (3-4)
7. Michigan St (4-4)

In between... on the outside looking in but still close
8. Michigan (3-4)

Tier C- off the bubble currently, but not completely out / still somewhat dangerous
9. Ohio St (2-5)
10. Iowa (3-4)
11. Illinois (2-5)
12. Penn St (3-5)
13. Nebraska (3-4)

A tier of their own-
14. Rutgers (1-7)

If we manage to win 2 this week I think we earn a way into the top tier at least for now... though I'm still targeting 10 conference wins as an initial goal personally, if we hit that then we can add on from there.

Go Cats!

Sorry for the string posts, but one more set of musings... going to list by my rankings the #s of the 5 teams that each top team plays twice, along with some simple stats.

1. Wisconsin- 5 / 6 / 8 / 9 / 14 (avg # 8.4, avg tier 2.7)
2. Purdue- 4 / 5 / 7 / 10 / 12 (avg # 7.6, avg tier 2.4)
3. Maryland- 6 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 14 (avg # 10.0, avg tier 3.0)
4. Northwestern- 2 / 5 / 11 / 13 / 14 (avg # 9.0, avg tier 2.6)
5. Indiana- 1 / 2 / 4 / 8 / 12 (avg # 5.4, avg tier 1.9)
6. Minnesota- 1 / 3 / 7 / 9 / 12 (avg # 6.4, avg tier 2.0)
7. Michigan St- 2 / 6 / 8 / 9 / 13 (avg # 7.6, avg tier 2.3)
8. Michigan- 1 / 5 / 7 / 11 / 13 (avg # 7.4, avg tier 2.2)

So the (admittedly subjective) order of SoS is Indy, Minny, Mich, MSU, Purdue, NU / Wiscy, MD. Indy and Minny have schedules that are outliers on the difficult side, while Maryland's is an outlier on the easy side. We got a decent draw of it, though I guess w slightly fewer opportunities for quality wins. Could be interesting to update these later this year...

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Sorry for the string posts, but one more set of musings... going to list by my rankings the #s of the 5 teams that each top team plays twice, along with some simple stats.

1. Wisconsin- 5 / 6 / 8 / 9 / 14 (avg # 8.4, avg tier 2.7)
2. Purdue- 4 / 5 / 7 / 10 / 12 (avg # 7.6, avg tier 2.4)
3. Maryland- 6 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 14 (avg # 10.0, avg tier 3.0)
4. Northwestern- 2 / 5 / 11 / 13 / 14 (avg # 9.0, avg tier 2.6)
5. Indiana- 1 / 2 / 4 / 8 / 12 (avg # 5.4, avg tier 1.9)
6. Minnesota- 1 / 3 / 7 / 9 / 12 (avg # 6.4, avg tier 2.0)
7. Michigan St- 2 / 6 / 8 / 9 / 13 (avg # 7.6, avg tier 2.3)
8. Michigan- 1 / 5 / 7 / 11 / 13 (avg # 7.4, avg tier 2.2)

So the (admittedly subjective) order of SoS is Indy, Minny, Mich, MSU, Purdue, NU / Wiscy, MD. Indy and Minny have schedules that are outliers on the difficult side, while Maryland's is an outlier on the easy side. We got a decent draw of it, though I guess w slightly fewer opportunities for quality wins. Could be interesting to update these later this year...

Great stats! We got a shot to be top 1-5 which is good in my book. Hope we stay healthy. Glad we have Brown to give MAc some rest! This way teams won't break the press on us! Both can break the press. Not sure anyone else can. We need another quick guard next year.

 

[backdoorpass]

And wanted to throw in here as a follow up, our remaining schedule is as follows...
Tier A- 2 home, 2 away
Tier B- 1.5 home, 1 away
Tier C- 2.5 home, 1 away
Rutgers- 1 home
(I split Michigan 50/50 between the tiers)

And thus far we have played...
Tier A- None
Tier B- 1 home, 1 away (0-2)
Tier C- 1 home, 3 away (4-0)
Rutgers- 1 away (1-0)

This helps illustrate why we have not yet earned our way into the top tier of the B1G. We haven't beaten anyone in the top 2 tiers, and we still have the far tougher part of our schedule remaining. Good thing is we've played 5/7 on the road, and have 7/11 at home left. Saddle up Wildcat fans, it's gonna be a fun ride.

Good analysis. Thanks for posting!

 

[DaCat]

Great stats! We got a shot to be top 1-5 which is good in my book. Hope we stay healthy. Glad we have Brown to give MAc some rest! This way teams won't break the press on us! Both can break the press. Not sure anyone else can. We need another quick guard next year.

We have Ash!!

 

[TheC]

The part that worries me still is that we have not beaten anyone in Tiers A or B yet. So far we've feasted on the bottom dwellers.

 

[GOUNUII]

The part that worries me still is that we have not beaten anyone in Tiers A or B yet. So far we've feasted on the bottom dwellers.

We play 5 of our first 7 conference games on the road, win 4 roadies and go 5-2 overall and you call that feasting on bottom dwellers? With the exception of Rutgers, those bottom dwellers you speak of have quality wins to their credit because they are damn tough outs, especially on their home turf.
Very impressive conference start by the Cats. But still 11 hard rounds left in the fight. Hoping we get by Nebraska on Thursday with something left in the tank for Indiana on Sunday. The Hoosiers remain the kind of team that presents tough match-ups for us. I like our chances against Md. at home more than Indiana. We'll need a great 40 minutes of basketball to beat them.
GOUNUII

 

[SmellyCat]

This is great stuff. Thanks for the string of posts and breaking it down. I was trying to figure out who to root for in a given night. On the one hand, I want Tier A to lose so it's easier for us to get up there (it's fun being in third or fourth place). On the other hand, if they keep winning, then it gives NU a chance to beat teams that most people think are "better".

Then for Tier B, we should want them to all lose, because they're competing with NU for precious spots in the Big Ten pecking order and (hope hope) NCAAs. But if they lose, someone has to beat them. Can Rutgers pull a few upsets? Tier C can certain beat some Tier B teams, but win too many of those and they join Tier B.

I guess I just root for everyone to go .500 except the Cats?

regardless, NU needs to start beating some Tier B teams, and some Tier A wins would be nice too.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Every team is tough! We wont get much sleep until we are dancing in March! Heck,I watched the Rutgers game with Maryland and they looked good!

 

[Deeringfish]

The part that worries me still is that we have not beaten anyone in Tiers A or B yet. So far we've feasted on the bottom dwellers.

I guess I just root for everyone to go .500 except the Cats?

regardless, NU needs to start beating some Tier B teams, and some Tier A wins would be nice too.[/QUOTE]

That is the thing. You just have to prove your own worth. Maybe when it comes down to the last games and there is a razors edge between records, it matters what he other guys do but over all you just have to beat guys, all of them.

What is the point of getting in if you are not the better team anyway?

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Neat set of the posts, Ricko. Thanks for doing this.

 

[ricko654321]

This is great stuff. Thanks for the string of posts and breaking it down. I was trying to figure out who to root for in a given night. On the one hand, I want Tier A to lose so it's easier for us to get up there (it's fun being in third or fourth place). On the other hand, if they keep winning, then it gives NU a chance to beat teams that most people think are "better".

Then for Tier B, we should want them to all lose, because they're competing with NU for precious spots in the Big Ten pecking order and (hope hope) NCAAs. But if they lose, someone has to beat them. Can Rutgers pull a few upsets? Tier C can certain beat some Tier B teams, but win too many of those and they join Tier B.

I guess I just root for everyone to go .500 except the Cats?

regardless, NU needs to start beating some Tier B teams, and some Tier A wins would be nice too.

Yeah... I'm sure Fitz would say you can only worry about what you can control, so we can only worry about winning or losing our own games.

That said, part of me is rooting for the 5 teams that play twice (Pur Ind IL NE Rut) to do well, bc wins for them will improve our SoS #s. If we keep winning games, at some point I'll start rooting for the teams at the top to go down, because then we can maybe compete for the B1G lead. At the moment though, I think I'm more rooting for the teams in the middle / just below the middle to lose - like Mich OSU Iowa etc - because I'd like us to convincingly separate ourselves into the upper half of the conference and solidify our tournament spot.

Of course, to the original point, none of that will matter if we don't win our own games, which is by far the most important thing.

 

[ricko654321]

Sorry for the string posts, but one more set of musings... going to list by my rankings the #s of the 5 teams that each top team plays twice, along with some simple stats.

1. Wisconsin- 5 / 6 / 8 / 9 / 14 (avg # 8.4, avg tier 2.7)
2. Purdue- 4 / 5 / 7 / 10 / 12 (avg # 7.6, avg tier 2.4)
3. Maryland- 6 / 9 / 10 / 11 / 14 (avg # 10.0, avg tier 3.0)
4. Northwestern- 2 / 5 / 11 / 13 / 14 (avg # 9.0, avg tier 2.6)
5. Indiana- 1 / 2 / 4 / 8 / 12 (avg # 5.4, avg tier 1.9)
6. Minnesota- 1 / 3 / 7 / 9 / 12 (avg # 6.4, avg tier 2.0)
7. Michigan St- 2 / 6 / 8 / 9 / 13 (avg # 7.6, avg tier 2.3)
8. Michigan- 1 / 5 / 7 / 11 / 13 (avg # 7.4, avg tier 2.2)

So the (admittedly subjective) order of SoS is Indy, Minny, Mich, MSU, Purdue, NU / Wiscy, MD. Indy and Minny have schedules that are outliers on the difficult side, while Maryland's is an outlier on the easy side. We got a decent draw of it, though I guess w slightly fewer opportunities for quality wins. Could be interesting to update these later this year...

In light of the various compliments, here is the raw data on the schedules for the rest of the conference if anyone cares. I tried linking in the image here which would be much easier (can you really not insert that or a s/s chart?), but it doesn't look like that is going to work. Anyways, for the first clump of #s - the last three numbers are the stats on who teams play 2x - avg rank, then avg tier, then win % so far.

As you might be able to discern, OSU and Rutgers also got pretty tough draws, along with Indy and Minny. Iowa and PSU got relatively easy draws too, though Maryland is still an outlier among everyone. The second clump of text just lists all the 2x matchups - start from the original team on the left then the next 5 are their doubles on the schedule.

This was all the product of late night curiosity while watching the Aussie Open QFs before going to sleep.....

Team Rank Tier W L Win % Avg Rank Avg Tier Avg Win %
Wisconsin 1 1 6 1 85.7% 8.4 2.7 36.8%
Purdue 2 1 6 2 75.0% 7.6 2.4 51.8%
Maryland 3 1 6 1 85.7% 10.0 3.0 31.1%
Northwestern 4 2 5 2 71.4% 9.0 2.6 43.2%
Indiana 5 2 4 3 57.1% 5.4 1.9 62.5%
Minnesota 6 2 3 4 42.9% 6.4 2.0 57.5%
Michigan St 7 2 4 4 50.0% 7.6 2.3 46.4%
Michigan 8 2.5 3 4 42.9% 7.4 2.2 52.9%
Ohio St 9 3 2 5 28.6% 6.0 1.8 61.4%
Iowa 10 3 3 4 42.9% 8.6 2.4 48.9%
Illinois 11 3 2 5 28.6% 7.4 2.3 56.1%
Penn St 12 3 3 5 37.5% 7.6 2.4 43.2%
Nebraska 13 3 3 4 42.9% 7.6 2.5 47.1%
Rutgers 14 4 1 7 12.5% 6.0 2.0 64.6%

Team Team 1 Team 2 Team 3 Team 4 Team 5
Wisconsin Indiana Minnesota Michigan Ohio St Rutgers
Purdue Northwestern Indiana Michigan St Iowa Penn St
Maryland Minnesota Ohio St Iowa Illinois Rutgers
Northwestern Purdue Indiana Illinois Nebraska Rutgers
Indiana Wisconsin Purdue Northwestern Michigan Penn St
Minnesota Wisconsin Maryland Michigan St Ohio St Penn St
Michigan St Purdue Minnesota Michigan Ohio St Nebraska
Michigan Wisconsin Indiana Michigan St Illinois Nebraska
Ohio St Wisconsin Maryland Minnesota Michigan St Nebraska
Iowa Purdue Maryland Illinois Nebraska Rutgers
Illinois Maryland Northwestern Michigan Iowa Penn St
Penn St Purdue Indiana Minnesota Illinois Rutgers
Nebraska Northwestern Michigan St Michigan Ohio St Iowa
Rutgers Wisconsin Maryland Northwestern Iowa Penn St

 

[ricko654321]

After the wins of Purdue, Wiscy, Maryland tonight, it seems to me that the conference is at least temporarily starting to segregate into tiers of a sort...

Tier A- tourney locks / conf champ contenders
1. Wisconsin (6-1)
2. Purdue (6-2)
3. Maryland (6-1)

Tier B- in tourney currently but work to do / lurking outside of the conference race
4. Northwestern (5-2)
5. Indiana (4-3)
6. Minnesota (3-4)
7. Michigan St (4-4)

In between... on the outside looking in but still close
8. Michigan (3-4)

Tier C- off the bubble currently, but not completely out / still somewhat dangerous
9. Ohio St (2-5)
10. Iowa (3-4)
11. Illinois (2-5)
12. Penn St (3-5)
13. Nebraska (3-4)

A tier of their own-
14. Rutgers (1-7)

If we manage to win 2 this week I think we earn a way into the top tier at least for now... though I'm still targeting 10 conference wins as an initial goal personally, if we hit that then we can add on from there.

Go Cats!

Amazing what just a couple days can do....

Tier A- 1) Wiscy 6-1; 2) Purdue 6-2; 3) Maryland 6-1
...
in between 4) NU 6-2
...
Tier B for "bubble"- 5) Mich 4-4; 6) MSU 4-4; 7) Indy 4-4; 8) Minny 3-5; 9) OSU 3-5
...
Tier C- 10) Illinois; 11) Nebraska; 12) PSU; 13) Iowa all 3-5
...
Rutgers 1-7

Cats are 0-0 // 1-2 // 4-0 // 1-0
Remaining 2H 2A // 2H 1A // 1H 1A (both IL) // 1H

Let's beat Indiana!

 

[DaCat]

Amazing what just a couple days can do....

Tier A- 1) Wiscy 6-1; 2) Purdue 6-2; 3) Maryland 6-1
...
in between 4) NU 6-2
...
Tier B for "bubble"- 5) Mich 4-4; 6) MSU 4-4; 7) Indy 4-4; 8) Minny 3-5; 9) OSU 3-5
...
Tier C- 10) Illinois; 11) Nebraska; 12) PSU; 13) Iowa all 3-5
...
Rutgers 1-7

Cats are 0-0 // 1-2 // 4-0 // 1-0
Remaining 2H 2A // 2H 1A // 1H 1A (both IL) // 1H

Let's beat Indiana!

We are technically in the top tier, tied with the other 3 teams with 6 wins.

I think we have a shot at going 8-2 the rest of the way.

 

[ricko654321]

We are technically in the top tier, tied with the other 3 teams with 6 wins.

I think we have a shot at going 8-2 the rest of the way.

Oh I'm not going "technically". This is entirely subjective. But I think the criteria I'm using are mostly similar to what the NCAA tournament would use, maybe a bit more heavily weighted to conf season / recent play, hence the power rankings title. Look at the quality of conference schedule and wins for 6-2 Purdue vs us. Maryland has had a similarly easy path to us so far, but they only have 1 loss while we have 2. We do not deserve to be in that tier.... yet. We beat Indiana and I think we deserve to get bumped up.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Amazing what just a couple days can do....

Tier A- 1) Wiscy 6-1; 2) Purdue 6-2; 3) Maryland 6-1
...
in between 4) NU 6-2
...
Tier B for "bubble"- 5) Mich 4-4; 6) MSU 4-4; 7) Indy 4-4; 8) Minny 3-5; 9) OSU 3-5
...
Tier C- 10) Illinois; 11) Nebraska; 12) PSU; 13) Iowa all 3-5
...
Rutgers 1-7

Cats are 0-0 // 1-2 // 4-0 // 1-0
Remaining 2H 2A // 2H 1A // 1H 1A (both IL) // 1H

Let's beat Indiana!

We r tier one baby

 

[DaCat]

Oh I'm not going "technically". This is entirely subjective. But I think the criteria I'm using are mostly similar to what the NCAA tournament would use, maybe a bit more heavily weighted to conf season / recent play, hence the power rankings title. Look at the quality of conference schedule and wins for 6-2 Purdue vs us. Maryland has had a similarly easy path to us so far, but they only have 1 loss while we have 2. We do not deserve to be in that tier.... yet. We beat Indiana and I think we deserve to get bumped up.

You're right. Our toughest stretch is still ahead of us. I think we need to play better, especially on offense. We've been gutting out the wins in the last two games, which is not a bad thing, but to beat the teams coming up on the schedule, we definitely need to play better.