Betting lines and the strength of NU's weaker opponents

[FeliSilvestris]

NU is currently roughly a 20 pts favorite over BSU, which is a MAC (and hence FBS) team.
BSU is 2-1, with its only defeat to then #16 A&M. Last season it had an even .500 MAC record.

About this time in Week 2, NU was a 24 pts favorite over FCS EIU.
NU had already beat top-25 Stanford, while EIU had lost by a significant margin to WIU.

So, it appears that according to bettors, MAC (FBS) BSU is only about 4 points better than FCS EIU!

Either BSU is much weaker than thought, or bettors also think EIU is a relatively strong opponent (only slightly weaker than a mid-pack MAC team). And bettors did not yet know that EIU would take the nation's #5 FCS team into OT.

Do keep in mind that bettors do put their money where their mouth is!

 

[shakes3858]

 

[mybrotha]

NU is currently roughly a 20 pts favorite over BSU, which is a MAC (and hence FBS) team.
BSU is 2-1, with its only defeat to then #16 A&M. Last season it had an even .500 MAC record.

About this time in Week 2, NU was a 24 pts favorite over FCS EIU.
NU had already beat top-25 Stanford, while EIU had lost by a significant margin to WIU.

So, it appears that according to bettors, MAC (FBS) BSU is only about 4 points better than FCS EIU!

Either BSU is much weaker than thought, or bettors also think EIU is a relatively strong opponent (only slightly weaker than a mid-pack MAC team). And bettors did not yet know that EIU would take the nation's #5 FCS team into OT.

Do keep in mind that bettors do put their money where their mouth is!

All bookies and books want is an even wager count and that is all the numbers are for. If it's a fifty fifty split they make roughy ten percent of the handle on that game. So they simply place a number they feel will stimulate action on both sides. As bettors we make our money on knowing more than they do about a specific team. In the age of incredibly strong computers with reems of data it's getting harder to beat them. But early this year they were behind the curve on the cats. They catch up quick though.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

All bookies and books want is an even wager count and that is all the numbers are for. If it's a fifty fifty split they make roughy ten percent of the handle on that game. So they simply place a number they feel will stimulate action on both sides.

I don't necessarily disagree with what you wrote. But the fact remains that THEY view the EIU of week 2 as (almost) equivalent to the BSU of week 4.
Only 4 pts separate a mid-pack MAC team from FCS EIU (from the betting lines POV).
That was my point.

 

[Windy City Cat Fan]

Maybe they underestimated NU at week two and thought Stanford was somewhat flukey. Without looking it up I would guess NU very rarely beats teams by more than 25 as we tend to play up and down to our competition. Any spread over 14 or so basically means they don't think you have a shot.

 

[villox]

Who cares what they thought the margin would be BEFORE the EIU game. Since we actually BEAT EIU by 41 points, if they thought BGSU was close in skill to EIU, shouldn't the line be closer to -37?

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Maybe they underestimated NU at week two and thought Stanford was somewhat flukey... Any spread over 14 or so basically means they don't think you have a shot.

Well, NU a P5 team had just beat a top-25 P5 team. EIU had just lost by several TD's to an FCS team. If they had reasons to underestimate NU they had even bigger reasons to underestimate EIU!

For them the betting lines are extremely serious because they in fact have to pay depending upon whether or not a team "covers" the spread. The specific number they choose has a direct impact on their payouts.

 

[hdhntr1]

Maybe they underestimated NU at week two and thought Stanford was somewhat flukey. Without looking it up I would guess NU very rarely beats teams by more than 25 as we tend to play up and down to our competition. Any spread over 14 or so basically means they don't think you have a shot.

Or maybe they had no idea of the NU offense after week one. And now they do

 

[FightNorthwestern]

Who cares what they thought the margin would be BEFORE the EIU game. Since we actually BEAT EIU by 41 points, if they thought BGSU was close in skill to EIU, shouldn't the line be closer to -37?

Exactly. The only takeaway from these betting lines, extremely marginal at best to begin with, is that after we beat EIU by 41 points, we are only favored by 20 points to BSU.