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Big Ten Rankings - The Athletic

GatoLouco

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Nov 14, 2019
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Early Big Ten men’s basketball rankings: Michigan, Purdue lead the quest to prove the league’s supremacy​


After putting nine teams in the NCAA Tournament, setting high-water marks for league efficiency ratings, but failing to put a team in the Final Four, the Big Ten, like every other league in the country, has undergone a mass upheaval in the offseason. Coaching changes. Draft decisions. Transfer portal activity. People coming, people going.


Today we try to make sense of where things stand.


With so much flux, this power ranking is deep with speculation and so much can change based on pending draft decisions and other potential roster moves. The only thing that’s certain is, as it stands, there isn’t much separating a lot of these teams. I broke these rankings into four categories — league title contenders, likely NCAA Tournament teams, questions and the others. Given the uncertainty of it all, those groupings are far more functional than the actual 1-14 ranking.


All that said, in a year of mass change, we need to recognize the real-time tracking of all the comings and goings in the league maintained by Inside the Hall. It’s incredibly useful and reliable. So thanks to Alex Bozich and his squad.


OK, here we go …
 

Legitimate league title contenders​


1. Michigan


This obviously hinges on Hunter Dickinson’s decision to remain in the NBA Draft or return for his sophomore year. My guess: He comes back. If that’s the case, this Michigan team, despite losing a ton in Franz Wagner, Isaiah Livers, Mike Smith and Chaundee Brown, is still loaded with talent. Juwan Howard is bringing in perhaps the best recruiting class in the county and pairing it with solid returnees such as Dickinson (he hopes), Eli Brooks, Coastal Carolina transfer point DeVante’ Jones, Brandon Johns Jr. and Terrance Williams. Amid a major exodus of stars in the Big Ten this offseason, there’s a lot to like at Michigan, starting with Dickinson, who will be a legitimate first-team All-American candidate. The big questions will be if Jones can make the steep jump from the Sun Belt to the Big Ten and how ready the freshmen are. Caleb Houstan, a wing, has the chance to be the conference’s top freshman.


2. Purdue


Assuming Trevion Williams bypasses the draft and returns to West Lafayette, Matt Painter will bring back every piece from a roster that went 13-6 in the league and ranked third in conference-only defensive efficiency and fifth in conference-only offensive efficiency. Combine that talent and experience with Painter’s coaching and, yeah, Purdue is an easy pick to finish toward the top of the standings. Beyond Williams, who will be a league player of the year candidate, and other trusted vets Eric Hunter and Sasha Stefanovic, there’s reason to be excited about the potential freshman-to-sophomore jumps by Zach Edey, Jaden Ivey and Brandon Newman, plus the arrivals of top-50 freshmen Trey Kaufman and Caleb Furst.


3. Maryland


Last year’s Terps were an odd mix of undersized pieces who figured out how to make it work. There are questions about what next year will look like, based on the pending stay-or-go pro decisions for Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins, and if Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Darryl Morsell will withdraw from the transfer portal and return, but at least Maryland will have a proper big man. Georgetown transfer Qudus Wahab will be among the most impactful newcomers in the Big Ten. Fatts Russell, who posted 1,594 points and 411 assists at Rhode Island, is another big-name transfer, but has much to prove, as does this whole roster. If some combination of Ayala/Wiggins/Morsell returns, rejoining Donta Scott and Hakim Hart, the Terps will have a high degree of depth and talent.


4. Ohio State


Another one with serious NBA Draft decisions on the table. There’s a wide range of possibilities here. If E.J. Liddell and Duane Washington are both back, this might be a preseason top-10 team. If Liddell goes and Washington stays or both go, well, some questions start to arise. The Buckeyes bring back a handful of familiar names such as Kyle Young, Justice Sueing and Seth Towns, and add intraconference transfer Jamari Wheeler (Penn State) and Joey Brunk (Indiana), plus top-50 guard Malaki Branham.


5. Michigan State


Aaron Henry is off to the NBA, and that’s no small matter, but Tom Izzo brings in one of the best transfer point guards in the county in Tyson Walker (Northeastern) and a terrific recruiting class headlined by Max Christie. Joey Hauser will look to erase what was a relatively underwhelming first season in East Lansing, while Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham are suddenly seniors. There’s more to like here than not, starting with the program having an actual point guard after spending last season rudderless in the backcourt.
 

Likely NCAA Tournament teams​


6. Illinois


Losing Ayo Dosunmu (pro), Giorgi Bezhanishvili (pro), Kofi Cockburn (pro) and Adam Miller (to LSU) in one fell swoop is not ideal, but a returning backcourt of Andre Curbelo, Trent Frazier and Da’Monte Williams is a helluva good starting point for a season. A couple of top-100 recruits are coming aboard in Luke Goode and Ramses Melendez, and inbound transfer guard Alfonso Plummer put up solid numbers at Utah. It’s tough, though, to project Ayo-less Illinois as being in that conference-title mix. That said, the pieces are in place for Brad Underwood to take the program back to the NCAA Tournament despite the overhaul. (This is where Illini fans will say, but what if Cockburn returns? Yes, that would change things, a lot, but I’m not sure if it’s that plausible.)


7. Indiana


Mike Woodson scored a major win in reeling back Tracye Jackson-Davis, along with seven other potential IU transfers to avoid making Year 1 a total rebuild. Then he added high-scoring Pitt transfer Xavier Johnson, Northwestern transfer Miller Kopp, and 7-foot South Florida transfer Michael Durr, plus top-50 freshman Tamar Bates and top-100 recruit Logan Duncomb. There’s a lot going on here. The questions will be how all of it fits together, how Woodson does in his first year on the college sideline, what kind of point guard play the Hoosiers will get and if this team can finally shoot the ball with any degree of competence.
 

We’ll see …​


8. Wisconsin


Another program with a mass exodus. D’Mitrik Trice, Aleem Ford, Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers are all moving on. Brad Davison is returning and Jonathan Davis is an exciting young player to build around, but Wisconsin is going to need some unexpected names to step up and surprise if this team is going to make the NCAA Tournament. It will be curious to see what Greg Gard does with this rebuild and a whole slew of young new faces playing major minutes. I’m not sure what to make of the Badgers, but it’s probably unwise to bet on them plummeting to the bottom depths of the conference.


9. Rutgers


Ron Harper Jr. was thought to be testing the NBA Draft waters, but didn’t appear on the NBA’s official early-entrant list. If he is indeed back, and Geo Baker decides to do the same, and Cliff Omoruyi takes a big step forward as a sophomore, Rutgers might be able to remain in that competitive mix in the middle of the pack, instead of sliding back to irrelevance. Losing Myles Johnson to UCLA and Jacob Young to Oregon undoubtedly stings, but Steve Pikiell has proven he can do more with less.


10. Iowa


Considering the notable exits — Luka Garza (pro), Joe Wieskamp (pro), C.J. Fredrick (to Kentucky) and Jack Nunge (Xavier) — you could make the case for Iowa to be even lower than this, but Jordan Bohannon’s decision to return for a sixth(!) season and the sophomore-year potential of Keegan Murray and Patrick McCaffery are at least glimmers of hope. This will be, nonetheless, a totally revamped team. Perhaps there’s still a chance Wieskamp opts to return for his junior season, but that seems unlikely. Iowa will take an obvious step back next season. The question is how far?


11. Nebraska


If Dalano Banton opts to withdraw from the draft, the Huskers will bring back four of their top five scorers (Banton along with Trey McGowens, Lat Mayen and Kobe Webster), while adding five-star guard Bryce McGowens, top-100 recruit Wilhelm Breidenbach and Xavier transfer C.J. Wilcher, among other newcomers. Yes, Nebraska still has heavy turnover, but this looks … almost stable. Fred Hoiberg is heading into Year 3, and the 2021-22 roster certainly looks like his most capable offering after going 5-34 in the Big Ten thus far.


12. Penn State


The hiring of Micah Shrewsberry might be the best offseason coup in the league. A football school through and through, Penn State outkicked its coverage here. The roster was depleted with the likes of Jamari Wheeler, Myreon Jones and Izaiah Brockington transferring out, but Shrewsberry kept some things intact in retaining Sam Sessoms, Myles Dread, Seth Lundy and John Harrar. There’s at least a foundation in place to be competitive, and the addition of Siena transfer Jalen Pickett will give the Nittany Lions one of the top newcomers in the conference.
 

Gonna be a long year​


13. Northwestern


The good news is Northwestern returns six of its top seven players, including Chase Audige, Pete Nance and Boo Buie. The bad news is those are returnees from a team that ranked 12th in the league in offensive efficiency and 13th defensively. Regardless, Chris Collins needs to figure out some way to make this work, as things are growing a little uneasy in Evanston. Collins is 19-58 since Northwestern’s appearance in the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Where do things from here?


14. Minnesota


The Gophers will be unrecognizable in Year 1 of the Ben Johnson era. Marcus Carr opted for the NBA Draft, while nine players entered the transfer portal. Coming in are six transfers with all-league mid-major credentials and a handful of freshmen. Minnesota was already dealt a blow when transfer Parker Fox, a Division II All-American, tore his ACL and meniscus shortly after committing. Johnson still has open scholarships and could make more additions, but The Barn is looking fairly empty for 2021-22. This is a major rebuild.
 
Rutgers will like only lose one player, but they drop?

In the meantime, IU is throwing together a lot with a first year coach and they're called a likely tourney team?

And finally, the Cats are somehow differentiated from Nebraska and Penn State despite a difference of one game. Penn State lost two of its three double-digit scorers from a bad team, but somehow gets a bump from portal guys from Gardner-Webb, Siena, juco and Western Michigan?

There's a lot here I don't buy. But I guess writers deserve an exhibition season also.

Of those last nine team, I'd separate Wisconsin and Rutgers, and the rest are just a mix of mediocre and "we'll see." Well, maybe not Minnesota.

I don't think it's in the realm of ridiculous that the Cats could be in the higher part of those final seven teams. Can one of the returning players step up his game? Can one of the new guys add some defense or three-point shooting? Fingers crossed.
 

Gonna be a long year​


13. Northwestern


The good news is Northwestern returns six of its top seven players, including Chase Audige, Pete Nance and Boo Buie. The bad news is those are returnees from a team that ranked 12th in the league in offensive efficiency and 13th defensively. Regardless, Chris Collins needs to figure out some way to make this work, as things are growing a little uneasy in Evanston. Collins is 19-58 since Northwestern’s appearance in the 2017 NCAA Tournament. Where do things from here?


14. Minnesota


The Gophers will be unrecognizable in Year 1 of the Ben Johnson era. Marcus Carr opted for the NBA Draft, while nine players entered the transfer portal. Coming in are six transfers with all-league mid-major credentials and a handful of freshmen. Minnesota was already dealt a blow when transfer Parker Fox, a Division II All-American, tore his ACL and meniscus shortly after committing. Johnson still has open scholarships and could make more additions, but The Barn is looking fairly empty for 2021-22. This is a major rebuild.

We will make Sweet Sixteen!
 
Not sure how someone can write "Northwestern returns six of its top seven players" as if that is a fact...
Anthony Gaines was 5th in minutes played. Kopp was first.

Maybe the author meant "top seven scorers" but if you don't count defense when you evaluate players... it makes for lazy predictions.

In my opinion, the path to success for the Wildcats is pretty obvious. It is a reasonable expectation that some players (like Berry, Nance and Audige, maybe Buie) can improve, Roper can contribute right away and Nicholson is given the opportunity he deserves, backing up Ryan Young, with Nance as the 4. No reason for pessimism, other than the underperformance of last years team.
 
Not sure how someone can write "Northwestern returns six of its top seven players" as if that is a fact...
Anthony Gaines was 5th in minutes played. Kopp was first.

Maybe the author meant "top seven scorers" but if you don't count defense when you evaluate players... it makes for lazy predictions.

In my opinion, the path to success for the Wildcats is pretty obvious. It is a reasonable expectation that some players (like Berry, Nance and Audige, maybe Buie) can improve, Roper can contribute right away and Nicholson is given the opportunity he deserves, backing up Ryan Young, with Nance as the 4. No reason for pessimism, other than the underperformance of last years team.
That you are criticizing this piece for being too optimistic is troubling.
 
I'm criticizing it for being inaccurate and not looking at the upside. Not sure what you are reading.
I may have misunderstood you. I thought the article was saying we have 6 of 7 top players returning and you are saying that is not even correct. We have less than 6 returning. So, even though that article basically concluded that we will suck, you are saying they even gave us one extra returning player and still came to that conclusion.
 
I may have misunderstood you. I thought the article was saying we have 6 of 7 top players returning and you are saying that is not even correct. We have less than 6 returning. So, even though that article basically concluded that we will suck, you are saying they even gave us one extra returning player and still came to that conclusion.

Yes, I think it is inaccurate to say that we have 6 of our top 7 guys returning, since Kopp and Gaines are gone and they were in our top 7.

However, I think the author was lazy in another regard - I think there is reason to be hopeful for next year. He completely ignores the logical improvement of Ty Berry especially, the contributions Matt Nicholson should make next year, the probable improved play of Chase Audige and the expectation that Julian Roper can contribute as a freshman. To me that more than offsets the loss of Miller Kopp and Anthony Gaines.

I say we will be better next year than we were this year, possibly a lot better.
 
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Yes, I think it is inaccurate to say that we have 6 of our top 7 guys returning, since Kopp and Gaines are gone and they were in our top 7.

However, I think the author was lazy in another regard - I think there is reason to be hopeful for next year. He completely ignores the logical improvement of Ty Berry especially, the contributions Matt Nicholson should make next year, the probable improved play of Chase Audige and the expectation that Julian Roper can contribute as a freshman. To me that more than offsets the loss of Miller Kopp and Anthony Gaines.

I say we will be better next year than we were this year, possibly a lot better.
I think all fans want to believe that our players will be better. The problem is that other teams' players are getting better too. Is there something special about CCC that makes us think his guys will improve faster than other teams' guys? Unfortunately, for me, that is another tick on the pessimistic ledger.

I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see the talent on this team to compete in the BIG. I'd love for you to throw this post back in my face next March.
 
I think all fans want to believe that our players will be better. The problem is that other teams' players are getting better too. Is there something special about CCC that makes us think his guys will improve faster than other teams' guys? Unfortunately, for me, that is another tick on the pessimistic ledger.
I don't disagree with you at all. I'm just typing those thoughts like this ... 🤞 🤞
 
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Yes, I think it is inaccurate to say that we have 6 of our top 7 guys returning, since Kopp and Gaines are gone and they were in our top 7.

However, I think the author was lazy in another regard - I think there is reason to be hopeful for next year. He completely ignores the logical improvement of Ty Berry especially, the contributions Matt Nicholson should make next year, the probable improved play of Chase Audige and the expectation that Julian Roper can contribute as a freshman. To me that more than offsets the loss of Miller Kopp and Anthony Gaines.

I say we will be better next year than we were this year, possibly a lot better.
Yeah but Kopp was arguably NU’s best player, and he transferred in conference to a team that’s projected (in these rankings) to be the middle of the conference standings and yet he’s probably not even going to start there. So even if some of the guys you named improve to offset losing Kopp, they’re still unlikely to be at the same talent level as starters on average big ten teams.
 
There’s not much excuse to not be better than:
-Minnesota
-Penn State
-Rutgers
-Nebraska

There’s not much excuse to not be competitive against or better than:
-Iowa
-Wisconsin
-Illinois

Other teams, as of now, appear, IMO, a step above the above mentioned:
-Indiana
-Michigan
-Michigan St
-Ohio State
-Maryland
-Purdue

What’s not so outrageous to do:
-Win 4-5 games against the first group
-Win 2/3 games against the 2nd group
-Win/steal 2/3 games against the 3rd group

This is not at all outrageous or delusional. And it’s why 6 win seasons are just so incredibly mediocre.

I don’t think we can see next season as anything but a major failure if we don’t get 8-11 wins.
 
If I'm going to get specific, I'd put Indiana and Rutgers in your second group, Gato. But that's six of one, half dozen of the other.

In general, I think that's a good measuring stick - maybe even generous.
 
If I'm going to get specific, I'd put Indiana and Rutgers in your second group, Gato. But that's six of one, half dozen of the other.

In general, I think that's a good measuring stick - maybe even generous.
Yeah I think Rutgers goes into the middle group too. I think Indiana sneaks into the upper group - would not have guessed it a few months ago but Woodson somehow managed to retain and recruit quite a bit of talent to Indiana. I guess remains to be seen how they put it together on the floor as they are still a bit lacking inside, and their shooting always seems to be inconsistent which you wouldn't expect from the state of Indiana, so who knows, you may be right and they could disappoint and fall back into the middle of the conference again.

I am mostly aligned with the prior poster in that I think 8-12 in conference is a reasonably achievable goal for next year. It depends on how good the conference is, but I think that at least gets us into the discussion for postseason play and should leave us with a winning record overall - which would justify retaining CC. 11 B1G wins would be great but I don't think is particularly realistic to be honest. Soft bigotry of low expectations perhaps, but it is what it is.
 
I am mostly aligned with the prior poster in that I think 8-12 in conference is a reasonably achievable goal for next year. It depends on how good the conference is, but I think that at least gets us into the discussion for postseason play and should leave us with a winning record overall - which would justify retaining CC. 11 B1G wins would be great but I don't think is particularly realistic to be honest. Soft bigotry of low expectations perhaps, but it is what it is.

For me, wins:
8 - would not be a disaster of a season, but it would be just that. And retaining a coach should not be dictated by not having a disaster of a season. That's a very low bar
9 - Depends. If it's like the last few seasons, it gets you a bid. If it's not, and the B1G is not as competitive as it has been, it doesn't. Tough decision
10-12 - I will get my foot off my mouth and move back to the camp of believing CC is our guy
 
I'm conflicted somewhat because shedding Collins is important to the long term success of the program.
I think we should have won 2 or 3 more games last year.
It is almost inevitable that we are mid-pack in the Big Ten next year, perhaps better.
The talent is there and some (or even most) of our guys will improve.
The league will not be as good either.
As long as the coach doesn't mess it up again, we'll be competitive with almost everybody in the league.
My hope is that we have a great year and Collins is replaced anyhow, but if the first part occurs, then the second part probably won't.
 
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