Big Thieves, March 8

[SmellyCat]

This is where it starts to get interesting, as there are 34 games on the schedule Wednesday. I know it's not the same as the first Thursday of the tourney, but there are worse days to call in sick.

The biggest potential bid thief to get beat tonight was probably Georgia Tech, which isn't saying much, and of the teams that have been eliminated so far, one is a sure at-large bid (St. Mary's), and one is right on the bubble (Illinois State).

The biggest place to watch on Wednesday is the ACC. Clemson has Duke, and if they win that, Louisville. BIG opportunity for them to play their way into the NCAAs without even winning the ACC. Syracuse also has Miami and might be on thin ice, so losing that one could put them in jeopardy.

Pac-12 has both USC-Washington and California-Oregon St. Tomorrow. California probably can't win without making it to the title game. USC is on safer ground, but losing to Washington will hurt.

In the Big 10, the Ohio State-Rutgers game has special meaning for us, but even a run to the title game is unlikely to get OSU into the tourney.

Big East: Xavier has been plummeting, but they have DePaul, so they may live to fight another day.

Nothing really of note in SEC, C-USA, MEAC, MWC, Southland, or Sun Belt yet, but they're all in action Wednesday.

 

[jjjjjjj]

The biggest potential bid thief to get beat tonight was probably Georgia Tech, which isn't saying much, and of the teams that have been eliminated so far, one is a sure at-large bid (St. Mary's), and one is right on the bubble (Illinois State).

The biggest place to watch on Wednesday is the ACC. Clemson has Duke, and if they win that, Louisville. BIG opportunity for them to play their way into the NCAAs without even winning the ACC. Syracuse also has Miami and might be on thin ice, so losing that one could put them in jeopardy.

Thanks for all this. But I'm a bit confused by the analysis. You're mainly concerned with bid thiefs, right? So would Clemson or other teams playing their way into the NCAAs by making their conference title games (but not winning their tournaments) actually be relevant?

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Thanks for all this. But I'm a bit confused by the analysis. You're mainly concerned with bid thiefs, right? So would Clemson or other teams playing their way into the NCAAs by making their conference title games (but not winning their tournaments) actually be relevant?

Clemson making the T (in whatever fashion) would be a bid theft because all/most "analysts" expect them NOT to get an AL bid. They are 12th in the 15-team ACC. For example, Lunardi has Clemson in the next-4 out (after the first 4 out). If a team such as Clemson ends up making the cut it may be at the expense of a team like NU, with good but not great tournament resume.

 

[SmellyCat]

Thanks for all this. But I'm a bit confused by the analysis. You're mainly concerned with bid thiefs, right? So would Clemson or other teams playing their way into the NCAAs by making their conference title games (but not winning their tournaments) actually be relevant?

I don't think NU has to worry, especially as already two bid-thief uprisings (in MVC and WCC) have already been quashed, but I was just looking at who could potentially sneak in. In any conference in which there is a team who is a lock for an at-large, there is the possibility of a bid thief if one of those non-lock teams wins the conference. That's still true. However, in some cases, there could be TWO bid thieves in a conference, if a team that is sort of on the bubble goes on a run and gets to the conference final. For example, Clemson is on the outside looking in, but if they beat N.C. State, Duke, Louisville, and one other top team before losing to someone else in the final, they will probably have done enough to pass someone currently on the bubble and get in. And if that team they lose to in the finals is Pittsburgh, for example (and I'm not looking at the bracket, so I don't even know if that's possible), then BOTH would be bid thieves.

As it is, most teams losing early in the week are eliminated from consideration. Probably 30 teams could be eliminated today. We're down to 204 overall by my count fighting for the final 68.

 

[NUCat320]

At last check, bracket matrix had us in in 134 of 135 projections, with the single outlier putting Illinois State in over us, probably just to piss off FitzPhile.

I wish I had bracket matrix everywhere in my life.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Nothing really of note in SEC, C-USA, MEAC, MWC, Southland, or Sun Belt yet, but they're all in action Wednesday.

In CUSA, MTSU has a great case for an at-large if they're upset in the Tourney: top 25 in the coaches' poll, top 50 wins against UNC Wilmington and Vandy along with a solid road win vs. Ole Miss. They have a couple of bad losses, including their only conference loss to a late-blooming UTEP team, but they have a solid case for an at-large overall. They don't play until tomorrow, but keep an eye out.

 

[SmellyCat]

Yeah, I would cover MTSU tomorrow. Today, all bid thieves in that conference are created equally, but no team in CUSA has more meaning than anyone else when it comes to bid thieves.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

What do you think happens if Illinois gets hot and makes a run in the BTT? Are they a bid thief? I would hate to think about what it means for them to go the finals and us to lose to OSU/Rutgers. Would the committee compare us to Illinois for a spot? I'm assuming that would not be ideal given that the beat us twice.

 

[NJCat]

This is where it starts to get interesting, as there are 34 games on the schedule Wednesday. I know it's not the same as the first Thursday of the tourney, but there are worse days to call in sick.

The biggest potential bid thief to get beat tonight was probably Georgia Tech, which isn't saying much, and of the teams that have been eliminated so far, one is a sure at-large bid (St. Mary's), and one is right on the bubble (Illinois State).

The biggest place to watch on Wednesday is the ACC. Clemson has Duke, and if they win that, Louisville. BIG opportunity for them to play their way into the NCAAs without even winning the ACC. Syracuse also has Miami and might be on thin ice, so losing that one could put them in jeopardy.

Pac-12 has both USC-Washington and California-Oregon St. Tomorrow. California probably can't win without making it to the title game. USC is on safer ground, but losing to Washington will hurt.

In the Big 10, the Ohio State-Rutgers game has special meaning for us, but even a run to the title game is unlikely to get OSU into the tourney.

Big East: Xavier has been plummeting, but they have DePaul, so they may live to fight another day.

Nothing really of note in SEC, C-USA, MEAC, MWC, Southland, or Sun Belt yet, but they're all in action Wednesday.

I think the "bid thieves" narrative is much more relevant for the NIT than the NCAA. Any upsets in the single bid conferences immediately drop the regular season champ to the NIT. And for leagues which send multiple teams, the odds of a low seed making it all the way through 4 or 5 consecutive days against top competition are pretty low.

 

[SmellyCat]

I think the "bid thieves" narrative is much more relevant for the NIT than the NCAA. Any upsets in the single bid conferences immediately drop the regular season champ to the NIT. And for leagues which send multiple teams, the odds of a low seed making it all the way through 4 or 5 consecutive days against top competition are pretty low.

Yeah, that's why I'm not too worried about NU. There are always bid thieves, but there are only so many opportunities for bid thieves. It's basically no more than 15 conferences where it could even happen, and in most of those conferences the chances a non-lock team makes it through are small. Every now and then you have a Connecticut or Syracuse who gets hot, but it doesn't happen that 10 underdogs make it to the end.

If Illinois makes it in AND NU loses to Rutgers, I could see Illinois beating NU in seed location (because by then, their resume would be better than NU's when you factor in the head-to-head sweep), but I don't think Illinois stealing a bid would mean NU no longer gets one. The committee may hold their nose at selecting nine teams (or whatever) from the Big 10 in that scenario, but they'd all be pretty valid. Michigan State or Michigan would probably be in more jeopardy, but they'd probably be safe then too (even though Michigan would have to lose to Illinois in their first BTT game in this scenario).

 

[ricko654321]

This is where it starts to get interesting, as there are 34 games on the schedule Wednesday. I know it's not the same as the first Thursday of the tourney, but there are worse days to call in sick.

The biggest potential bid thief to get beat tonight was probably Georgia Tech, which isn't saying much, and of the teams that have been eliminated so far, one is a sure at-large bid (St. Mary's), and one is right on the bubble (Illinois State).

The biggest place to watch on Wednesday is the ACC. Clemson has Duke, and if they win that, Louisville. BIG opportunity for them to play their way into the NCAAs without even winning the ACC. Syracuse also has Miami and might be on thin ice, so losing that one could put them in jeopardy.

Pac-12 has both USC-Washington and California-Oregon St. Tomorrow. California probably can't win without making it to the title game. USC is on safer ground, but losing to Washington will hurt.

In the Big 10, the Ohio State-Rutgers game has special meaning for us, but even a run to the title game is unlikely to get OSU into the tourney.

Big East: Xavier has been plummeting, but they have DePaul, so they may live to fight another day.

Nothing really of note in SEC, C-USA, MEAC, MWC, Southland, or Sun Belt yet, but they're all in action Wednesday.

I just think we need to catch all these big thieves before they run off with yuge amounts of money!!

 

[ricko654321]

This is where it starts to get interesting, as there are 34 games on the schedule Wednesday. I know it's not the same as the first Thursday of the tourney, but there are worse days to call in sick.

The biggest potential bid thief to get beat tonight was probably Georgia Tech, which isn't saying much, and of the teams that have been eliminated so far, one is a sure at-large bid (St. Mary's), and one is right on the bubble (Illinois State).

The biggest place to watch on Wednesday is the ACC. Clemson has Duke, and if they win that, Louisville. BIG opportunity for them to play their way into the NCAAs without even winning the ACC. Syracuse also has Miami and might be on thin ice, so losing that one could put them in jeopardy.

Pac-12 has both USC-Washington and California-Oregon St. Tomorrow. California probably can't win without making it to the title game. USC is on safer ground, but losing to Washington will hurt.

In the Big 10, the Ohio State-Rutgers game has special meaning for us, but even a run to the title game is unlikely to get OSU into the tourney.

Big East: Xavier has been plummeting, but they have DePaul, so they may live to fight another day.

Nothing really of note in SEC, C-USA, MEAC, MWC, Southland, or Sun Belt yet, but they're all in action Wednesday.

In all seriousness though, I'm cheering for Wake today against VT for our SoS, and for USC to lose cause I don't like them. Also the Oklahoma TCU game tonight could be interesting - we are playing OK next year, and Jamie Dixon is trying to get TCU into the tourney in his first year there.

 

[hdhntr1]

Thanks for all this. But I'm a bit confused by the analysis. You're mainly concerned with bid thiefs, right? So would Clemson or other teams playing their way into the NCAAs by making their conference title games (but not winning their tournaments) actually be relevant?

If they win, then they are potential thieves adding bids to a conference that it would not have otherwise. The more there are, the greater potential for something to happen to our bid.

 

[TheC]

Another spot opens up as Syracuse likely falls off the bubble (is that an expression?)

 

[FeliSilvestris]

What do you think happens if Illinois gets hot and makes a run in the BTT? Are they a bid thief? I would hate to think about what it means for them to go the finals and us to lose to OSU/Rutgers. Would the committee compare us to Illinois for a spot? I'm assuming that would not be ideal given that the beat us twice.

Don't see why isn't it relevant to the NCAA's. The T has a FINITE number of spots. Currently the "bracketologists" are assigning those spots to 68 teams. Most (all) include NU among those 68. But do NOT include a lot of teams, such as IOA, Illy or OSU (for example).
If after the BTT it turns out that both OSU and Illy have earned spots (for example), since no one expected that to happen, obviously two teams that were being projected among the 68 "in" WOULD HAVE TO COME OUT to make room for the 2 "thieves" (since no one was "saving" spots for them). Hence, those 2 teams that today most think are "in" will end up "out" (to make room for the "thieves").
That sort of thing is what happens when there are "thieves" (teams that most think are "out" but who end up playing themselves "in" at the last minute).
Couldn't NU be one of the teams "taken out" (figuratively, because no one is really "in" yet) to make room for "thieves" (especially if the thieves are fellow B1G-ers)?

 

[FeliSilvestris]

If they win, then they are potential thieves adding bids to a conference that it would not have otherwise. The more there are, the greater potential for something to happen to our bid.

That is exactly the problem. Seems obvious to me, but apparently is difficult for some to grasp.

 

[SmellyCat]

My only point is that there have to be a lot of bid thieves for NU to be left out. If there a handful, NU is safe, even if two of those are Illinois and Ohio State and someone thinks Big 10 has to be capped at X teams.

I agree that the more there are, the more reason to be worried, but there likely have to be a lot, and so far there's nothing approaching a bid thief situation out there (though admittedly, it's a bit too early for most relevant conferences).

Let's say the world agrees that Illinois State is the last team in. Well, when Bid Thief #1 shows up, Illinois State gets the axe. When Bid Thief #2 shows up, maybe it's USC that is the next victim. Who knows? For NU to get knocked out, we'd probably need close to 10 bid thieves. The last seven in will be #11 and #12 seeds, and even if you think NU is the worst #10 team (and most have them ranked higher than that), that's seven bid thieves needed before NU is affected.

So, yay, Syracuse lost.

 

[SmellyCat]

Not that I relish Duke winning, but taking out Clemson reduces the bid thieves in ACC by one. Pitt's the only one left I believe, unless you think Wake Forest is still on the bubble (I don't). The Syracuses and Illinois States are still sweating.

 

[mikewebb68]

That is exactly the problem. Seems obvious to me, but apparently is difficult for some to grasp.

There would have to be a zillion of these teams for us to not make the Dance. Seems obvious to me, but apparently is difficult for some to grasp....

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Let's say the world agrees that Illinois State is the last team in. Well, when Bid Thief #1 shows up, Illinois State gets the axe. When Bid Thief #2 shows up, maybe it's USC that is the next victim. Who knows? For NU to get knocked out, we'd probably need close to 10 bid thieves. The last seven in will be #11 and #12 seeds, and even if you think NU is the worst #10 team (and most have them ranked higher than that), that's seven bid thieves needed before NU is affected.

Are you considering that many of the teams that bracketologists are seeding below NU may be AQ's from single-bid ("weak") conferences? These teams cannot be "taken out" to accommodate 'thieves'. If they happen to lose in their T they would be replaced by a similarly weak team from the respective conference, probably seeded similarly. For this reason, the teams "taken out" to make room for major-conference 'thieves' (OSU, Illy, etc) may be relatively highly "seeded" (per bracketologists).

The only sure way to be immune to "bid theft" is to be ranked in the top 36, in the final ranking by the T-committee (not by bracketologists, KenPom, etc.). Obviously, since there are 36 AL bids, a "top 36" team WILL get one. But a team ranked lower than 36 MIGHT get one also, because some of the teams ranked among the top-36 may earn an AQ (say, Purdue wins the BTT), which would then release such teams' AL-bids for allocation to teams ranked below 36 (in the committee's final ranking).

I have seen recent "composite" (average) rankings for NU in the low 40's. Obviously that can change after all conference tournaments end. If NU were to be in the low 40's in the committee's final ranking, it would need that about half dozen teams ranked ahead earn AQ's outright, so that an AL bid falls to NU.

 

[TheC]

Are you considering that many of the teams that bracketologists are seeding below NU may be AQ's from single-bid ("weak") conferences? These teams cannot be "taken out" to accommodate 'thieves'. If they happen to lose in their T they would be replaced by a similarly weak team from the respective conference, probably seeded similarly. For this reason, the teams "taken out" to make room for major-conference 'thieves' (OSU, Illy, etc) may be relatively highly "seeded" (per bracketologists).

The only sure way to be immune to "bid theft" is to be ranked in the top 36, in the final ranking by the T-committee (not by bracketologists, KenPom, etc.). Obviously, since there are 36 AL bids, a "top 36" team WILL get one. But a team ranked lower than 36 MIGHT get one also, because some of the teams ranked among the top-36 may earn an AQ (say, Purdue wins the BTT), which would then release such teams' AL-bids for allocation to teams ranked below 36 (in the committee's final ranking).

I have seen recent "composite" (average) rankings for NU in the low 40's. Obviously that can change after all conference tournaments end. If NU were to be in the low 40's in the committee's final ranking, it would need that about half dozen teams ranked ahead earn AQ's outright, so that an AL bid falls to NU.

Do you really think people don't get that by now? All of the bracketologists (amateur and pros) take only the true at large teams into account. The automatic bids are already factored out in any analysis.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Do you really think people don't get that by now? All of the bracketologists (amateur and pros) take only the true at large teams into account. The automatic bids are already factored out in any analysis.

My question concerned the SPECIFIC paragraph that I quoted. It was/is unclear to me whether in THAT paragraph he is considering the AQ's that may be among those "seeded" below NU.

 

[SmellyCat]

I am.

 

[Walker Fan]

Only 4 more days until FS implodes and his meaningless posts are disproven and thrown formally in the toilet. There are approximately 44-46 teams (no. 1-11 seeds and maybe 1-2 no. 12 seeds) selected every year from the power conferences and a much smaller number from the smaller conferences. This year, the schools from the smaller conferences like Gonzaga and Wichita State have won their smaller conference tournaments and that means less opportunities for bid thieves like BYU to make it. This year some bid theives from bigger conferences like Syracuse and Texas Tech have lost so that makes teams like NU who are anywhere between a no. 8-10 seed safer even if they lose to Rutgers which I do not think will happen. So the argument for only the top 36 teams making the tourney is incorrect.

 

[SmellyCat]

I think Walker said it better than I could. Basically I just noted that of the 68 bids approximately 22 (I don't remember the exact number) come from one-bid conferences no matter what, so I can throw those out completely and bring the number down to 46 teams that come from potential multi-bid conferences. And even some of THOSE conferences could easily get just one bid if the one halfway-decent bubble team (like Nevada, MTSU, etc.) wins its tournament. I originally figured MVC for a two-bid conference, and they might only get one, for example, though Illinois State still has a chance.

So rank the 46 teams that you think are good enough to get in. If NU is on THAT list, they make it in. If you feel NU is ranked around 38th or so, for example, then you'd need nine teams that previously weren't in the 46 to not only get into the top 46, but to actually PASS Northwestern in the rankings. Yes, the more bid thieves, the bigger chance NU will drop because there will be nowhere else to go, but the teams that most at risk are the ones ranked 44-45-46. It's why you hear guys like Lunardi say that they have XYZ team ranked as "last four in, but I don't think they'll make it" - they just don't know which bid thief will knock them out.

And yes, there is a danger in saying "NU is ranked 38" because we may be overrating them. I also think a certain combination of events (any of which are somewhat likely, but collectively of which I think is going to be impossible) could knock NU out, especially if the committee doesn't like the Big 10.

But honestly, I think they're safe. I'm mostly doing this because I like the NCAAs and I actually have even more interest than usual this year. I wonder why?

 

[D_C_B]

Do you really think people don't get that by now? All of the bracketologists (amateur and pros) take only the true at large teams into account. The automatic bids are already factored out in any analysis.

Exactly. Clearly, Feli knows more than the professional bracketologists, and has a more methodical and precise calculation than they do. Uh, huh.

 

[SmellyCat]

Basically NU misses if the following things happen:
1) Rutgers beats NU
2) Illinois loses in the BT final to Indiana, Iowa, or Rutgers
3) Michigan St. beats Penn St. (I think they're in, but one more win makes them a lock even with bid thieves)
4) Other bid thieves abound (there would have to be plenty)
5) The committee doesn't really like Big 10 and/or Northwestern as much as we thought. It comes down to the end with NU and Illinois getting compared for the last spot, and Illinois' resume looks better than NU's (thanks to their sweep of NU and both with 21 wins), and the committee says, "do we really want to give out bids to NINE Big Ten teams? We should pick someone else instead of the ninth Big 10 team."

Could it all happen? Sure. I don't think it will though.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

So rank the 46 teams that you think are good enough to get in. If NU is on THAT list, they make it in. If you feel NU is ranked around 38th or so, for example, then you'd need nine teams that previously weren't in the 46 to not only get into the top 46, but to actually PASS Northwestern in the rankings. Yes, the more bid thieves, the bigger chance NU will drop because there will be nowhere else to go, but the teams that most at risk are the ones ranked 44-45-46.

WRONG! 46 is the WRONG number.
As I explained above, the right number is 36 (the # of AL bids).
You are assuming that in the about 10 strong conferences (that # is about right) each T-winner will be a top-36 team.

EVERY SINGLE AQ MAY be ranked below #36. Say, Nebby wins the B1G, Temple wins the AA, VT wins the ACC, etc., etc. I haven't checked brackets or scores, but you get the idea. The mentioned teams are not likely to be among the committee's top 36, even after winning their T. So, what's the committee to do with its 36 AL bids? Obvious, they must give them to teams ranked 1-36. End of the story.

But like I said before, the above is the worst case scenario for NU. Probably SOME of the AQ will go to teams who will also be in the committee's top 36 (say, PU wins the B1G, UNC wins the ACC, etc). Hence teams below #36 MAY get a bid. How far below? We need to know how many AQ's will fall to top teams.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Very difficult to win on one days rest when the other team gets a bye! We may beat Rutgers,but then a rested Maryland will be ready and rested! Need to beat Maryland

 

[SmellyCat]

I think we're agreeing more than you think. It's six of one, half-dozen of the other. It's 36 once you take the automatic bids, but then NU will actually move UP in the rankings if you're taking out the teams ranked ahead of them who receive automatic bids. For the sake of argument, NU is 38th overall. However, Gonzaga won their tourney already, so they're not on the "top 36" list for AL bids. So NU moves up to 37. Wichita State won. NU is 36th. An ACC team ranked above NU wins (there aren't any left behind them). NU moves up to 35th. And so on. So if that's it and every other conference champ goes to a bid thief ranked below NU, NU is still ranked 35th on your list. Too close for comfort, but still in the top 36. However, the chance of bid thieves in all of those other conferences is pretty unlikely, so NU will likely keep climbing and end up ranked around 30 for at-large bids. That's lock territory. If they lose to Rutgers, they might drop a few places, but don't forget most of the other teams right around them will lose as well this week.

Of course, this assumes NU is about 38th. To the committee, they might be 43 right now for whatever reason, and then they're in more danger.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

I think we're agreeing more than you think. It's six of one, half-dozen of the other. It's 36 once you take the automatic bids, but then NU will actually move UP in the rankings if you're taking out the teams ranked ahead of them who receive automatic bids. For the sake of argument, NU is 38th overall.

You don't need to move anyone up or down. Simply, if a team ranked 1-36 gets an AQ then it obviously doesn't need an AL bid. This bid can be offered to those ranked below #36, starting with #37. If another becomes available, then #38 gets in, and so on.

I have no idea how the committee may be ranking NU today. However, even if I did, it wouldn't really matter. The important ranking is the final one, after all games have been played. Obviously NU could improve its ranking (from which ever it is in the committee's eyes today) by winning.

My main point is that it is risky for NU to assume that it already has a bid NO MATTER WHAT. Best for NU to go to the BTT with the idea that it needs to play well in order to be CERTAIN to have a bid on Sunday.

 

[SmellyCat]

Agree there. I'm confident. Many people here are confident. NU should play confidently but also with the mindset that they haven't accomplished anything yet.

 

[hdhntr1]

Are you considering that many of the teams that bracketologists are seeding below NU may be AQ's from single-bid ("weak") conferences? These teams cannot be "taken out" to accommodate 'thieves'. If they happen to lose in their T they would be replaced by a similarly weak team from the respective conference, probably seeded similarly. For this reason, the teams "taken out" to make room for major-conference 'thieves' (OSU, Illy, etc) may be relatively highly "seeded" (per bracketologists).

The only sure way to be immune to "bid theft" is to be ranked in the top 36, in the final ranking by the T-committee (not by bracketologists, KenPom, etc.). Obviously, since there are 36 AL bids, a "top 36" team WILL get one. But a team ranked lower than 36 MIGHT get one also, because some of the teams ranked among the top-36 may earn an AQ (say, Purdue wins the BTT), which would then release such teams' AL-bids for allocation to teams ranked below 36 (in the committee's final ranking).

I have seen recent "composite" (average) rankings for NU in the low 40's. Obviously that can change after all conference tournaments end. If NU were to be in the low 40's in the committee's final ranking, it would need that about half dozen teams ranked ahead earn AQ's outright, so that an AL bid falls to NU.

Well, let's look at you hypothesis. Every major conference winner is likely ranked ahead of us. So that means one from BIG, ACC, SEC, Big East, PAC 12, Big 12 plus Dayton (if they win their CT) , Gonzaga, and likely WSU so that means at likely at least 8 or 9 of those AL bids are not taken by top 36 teams as they are already AQ . In the BIG, any of the teams ranked ahead of us are not a problem (could be a team like IL ranked below us that sneaks up and gets the AQ in these conferences but it is unlikely to be more than one or maybe two across the country and some like Gonzaga and WSU have already won). That moves it up to around the top 45 and maybe even further.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Well, let's look at you hypothesis. Every major conference winner is likely ranked ahead of us. So that means one from BIG, ACC, SEC, Big East, PAC 12, Big 12 plus Dayton (if they win their CT) , Gonzaga, and likely WSU

As I've said, if major conferences AQ are won by top-36 teams it is certainly good for NU, but as of today we cannot be sure that will happen in all cases. Best for the cats to assume that they need to be a top-36 team by Sunday (in the committee eyes) and do all they can to advance as deep as possible in the BTT. That can only help them, if nothing else, to get more favorable seeding.

 

[hdhntr1]

WRONG! 46 is the WRONG number.
As I explained above, the right number is 36 (the # of AL bids).
You are assuming that in the about 10 strong conferences (that # is about right) each T-winner will be a top-36 team.

EVERY SINGLE AQ MAY be ranked below #36. Say, Nebby wins the B1G, Temple wins the AA, VT wins the ACC, etc., etc. I haven't checked brackets or scores, but you get the idea. The mentioned teams are not likely to be among the committee's top 36, even after winning their T. So, what's the committee to do with its 36 AL bids? Obvious, they must give them to teams ranked 1-36. End of the story.

But like I said before, the above is the worst case scenario for NU. Probably SOME of the AQ will go to teams who will also be in the committee's top 36 (say, PU wins the B1G, UNC wins the ACC, etc). Hence teams below #36 MAY get a bid. How far below? We need to know how many AQ's will fall to top teams.

The number is 36 plus the number of teams ranked in the top 36 that get AQ bids. For our getting in, it can be anyone ranked above us that gets an AQ bid as that takes them from the group seeking AL bids. 46 might not be the actual number but it is likely pretty close. Could teams ranked below us in the top conferences win and get the AQ bids? Sure. But it is unlikely to be more than 1 or 2 such upsets and at least two of them are out of the picture since Gonzaga and WSU won. In the BIG for example, any of 6 or 7 teams can win and increases the number.

 

[hdhntr1]

WRONG! 46 is the WRONG number.
As I explained above, the right number is 36 (the # of AL bids).
You are assuming that in the about 10 strong conferences (that # is about right) each T-winner will be a top-36 team.

EVERY SINGLE AQ MAY be ranked below #36. Say, Nebby wins the B1G, Temple wins the AA, VT wins the ACC, etc., etc. I haven't checked brackets or scores, but you get the idea. The mentioned teams are not likely to be among the committee's top 36, even after winning their T. So, what's the committee to do with its 36 AL bids? Obvious, they must give them to teams ranked 1-36. End of the story.

But like I said before, the above is the worst case scenario for NU. Probably SOME of the AQ will go to teams who will also be in the committee's top 36 (say, PU wins the B1G, UNC wins the ACC, etc). Hence teams below #36 MAY get a bid. How far below? We need to know how many AQ's will fall to top teams.

With the wins by Gonzaga and WSU, the number is already at least 38.

 

[hdhntr1]

You don't need to move anyone up or down. Simply, if a team ranked 1-36 gets an AQ then it obviously doesn't need an AL bid. This bid can be offered to those ranked below #36, starting with #37. If another becomes available, then #38 gets in, and so on.

I have no idea how the committee may be ranking NU today. However, even if I did, it wouldn't really matter. The important ranking is the final one, after all games have been played. Obviously NU could improve its ranking (from which ever it is in the committee's eyes today) by winning.

My main point is that it is risky for NU to assume that it already has a bid NO MATTER WHAT. Best for NU to go to the BTT with the idea that it needs to play well in order to be CERTAIN to have a bid on Sunday.

IL now done

 

[hdhntr1]

You don't need to move anyone up or down. Simply, if a team ranked 1-36 gets an AQ then it obviously doesn't need an AL bid. This bid can be offered to those ranked below #36, starting with #37. If another becomes available, then #38 gets in, and so on.

I have no idea how the committee may be ranking NU today. However, even if I did, it wouldn't really matter. The important ranking is the final one, after all games have been played. Obviously NU could improve its ranking (from which ever it is in the committee's eyes today) by winning.

My main point is that it is risky for NU to assume that it already has a bid NO MATTER WHAT. Best for NU to go to the BTT with the idea that it needs to play well in order to be CERTAIN to have a bid on Sunday.

We all want them to play well. And a win over RUT would seal the deal for sure. But probably OK even with a loss (with a bubble as weak as it appears this year) as RUT would likely have moved up considerably from their earlier ranking with three wins in a row.

 

[SmellyCat]

Honestly, with Illinois now out, I really don't see a path for NU to miss now, unless the committee REALLY thinks the Big 10 is bad. There could still be two bid thieves from the Big 10 (Rutgers over Iowa in the final, for example), but there won't be the last theoretical comparison of Big 10 teams between NU and a team NU hasn't beaten.

 

[hdhntr1]

Honestly, with Illinois now out, I really don't see a path for NU to miss now, unless the committee REALLY thinks the Big 10 is bad. There could still be two bid thieves from the Big 10 (Rutgers over Iowa in the final, for example), but there won't be the last theoretical comparison of Big 10 teams between NU and a team NU hasn't beaten.

Here are the power rankings. We are listed at 45th but teams like IND and MSU are a head of us. IA is behind and could cause problems. RUT is 133 but that is up for the 170s when they beat IL and not sure if it reflects beating OSU Just saying our position does not look too bad.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/