Bill Connelly Preview of Cats
- Thread starter epicbret
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When I first glanced at the headline I wondered what Carmody knew about football.....
Well, the pieces are in place to defy the laws of regression. You have Thorson with a year under his belt, an experienced offensive line, and (trying to find something optimistic to say about our recievers) new talent at the WR position.
There is ample room to improve offensively and compensate for a decline in defensive production, which seems likely given the loss of our bookend DEs.
10 wins is a lark, but I can see 8 wins.
There is ample room to improve offensively and compensate for a decline in defensive production, which seems likely given the loss of our bookend DEs.
10 wins is a lark, but I can see 8 wins.
This is the same organization that the "Super Secret Advanced Stats Community" at InsideNU references with its statistic analysis.
" And ... goodness, if Thorson doesn't improve, surely someone else on the roster is better? He was really unsuccessful last year, even by freshman standards. His 95.9 passer rating was about as bad as you'll ever see from a full-year starter, and if you take out the Eastern Illinois and Ball State games, the rating sinks to 84.1."
I do think Thor will be better this year, in particular running the ball.
"And ... goodness, if Thorson doesn't improve, surely someone else on the roster is better?" Nope, not really.
"To say the least, leaning on a low-efficiency run game with minimal explosiveness gives you almost no margin for error." Yep.
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Without putting too much pressure on the young man, the success (or failure) of this season is on Thorson's shoulders. If he's markedly improved, then we're going to be good (and not just lucky). If he struggles, then we are who they think we are.
"To say the least, leaning on a low-efficiency run game with minimal explosiveness gives you almost no margin for error." Yep.
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Without putting too much pressure on the young man, the success (or failure) of this season is on Thorson's shoulders. If he's markedly improved, then we're going to be good (and not just lucky). If he struggles, then we are who they think we are.
I am a fan of Advanced Stats actually, notably the stats they use for running backs and WR.
I found that interesting since that was one of our most decisive wins (27-0) last year. I think Minny is certainly capable of beating NU from year to year, but I don't know what they have coming back to warrant being such a big favorite over us. He actually gave us a better chance to beat Nebraska, which potentially could be a much more explosive team than Minnesota. As far as last year, I don't think NU was especially lucky. Other than Stanford, which of the other nine teams wouldn't we have had a reasonable chance of beating in a rematch? We actually dominated the Penn State game for most of the game before almost giving it away. The Cats were fortunate against Duke, but couldn't have played much worse on offense and still won the game. Also liked his little bit about Jackson runs that went nowhere. Although Justin will probably never have the league's highest per-carry average, you don't rack up 1,300-1,400 yards without some runs going somewhere.
Overall, he didn't seem dismissive of the team, just the offensive production. I don't see how anyone can disagree with that. I doubt if the dubious comments about JJ will sit well here, but otherwise this seems fair enough. He didn't really agree with his own stats, which says something.
It wasn't necessarily a terrible analysis, but it was one I'd expect from someone who is going by the numbers rather than actually watching a team play. Since he's attempting an analysis of all 120-plus Division I teams, he's got to be leaning heavily on the stats. While I'd agree we need a big jump from Thorson this year, anyone who watched the team last year knows the receivers were at least as much of a problem. That said, I've seen worse.
Agree. He clearly put the spotlight on the OC and his staff. The passing game does not have to be good this year; an average passing game should allow the Cats to achieve 7-8 wins. This should be tenable- as Connelly seems to indicate.
Overall a good analysis by Connelly, it sounds like he is trying to convince himself that NU won't drop to the 6.6 wins level but stay at the 9 or 10 win level.
I expect steady improvement from Thorson this year, perhaps on a slightly better trajectory than what we saw from Brett Basanez during his stellar NU career. The running game is loaded starting with Justin, and it's going to be tough keeping Moten on the bench, let alone Warren Long and others. The OL should be improved, Park needs to stay healthy and provide senior leadership. WR has potential for improvement, but no one knows at this point how newcomers like Riley Lees will do.
I expect steady improvement from Thorson this year, perhaps on a slightly better trajectory than what we saw from Brett Basanez during his stellar NU career. The running game is loaded starting with Justin, and it's going to be tough keeping Moten on the bench, let alone Warren Long and others. The OL should be improved, Park needs to stay healthy and provide senior leadership. WR has potential for improvement, but no one knows at this point how newcomers like Riley Lees will do.
He talks of regression back to the mean as if last year's results (and good fortune against Stanford, Nebraska, and UW) affect this year's potential results. They don't, and such statements annoy me. The likelihood of our going 10-3 with hypothetically the exact same team we had last year is admittedly low, but it is not lowered this year because of our opportune play last year. Thorson has shown good poise in some tough situations. Let's hope we get a passing game going this year.
Also, note this analysis of Fitz's coaching...
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...-college-football-pat-fitzgerald-kevin-wilson
And how low Kevin Wilson ranks.
http://www.footballstudyhall.com/20...-college-football-pat-fitzgerald-kevin-wilson
And how low Kevin Wilson ranks.
Wilson has lost a lot of close games against the likes of Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, and Navy. His teams haven't been able to close out games because of their poor defense.
No need to pile on the RS FR. Why take out the two MAC teams to make his rating look worse? A more apt adjustment may be to take out the WI and MI games since they ended up the #1 and 2 pass efficiency D's in FBS. Thorson faced some very tough D's last year, quite a trial for a new starter.
And to the extent he relied on anecdotal evidence, the games he probably watched last season were the nationally televised games against Michigan, Iowa, and Tennessee. That obviously skews the statistics and subjective impressions decidedly against the Cats.
I think his analysis was actually pretty astute. I likewise expect some regression toward the mean, but also some ability to overcome it. The 'Cats played smartly last year, despite limited offensive options and I think they'll do the same again this year. That said, I don't think they'll have the lucky calls they got in last year's Badgers game anytime soon.
What is the mean we're supposed to regress to? "regression to the mean" is an absurd term. How about 'it is unlikely we will have such good fortune this year'.
Unless the rules on a fair catch and what constitutes a pass reception change, I don't think those calls will change, no matter how strict the rules for a catch seem to be. Remember that both calls were reviewed.
