ADVERTISEMENT

Bringing students back to campus- this researcher has concerns (long)

WestCoastWildcat

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
4,478
1,376
113
Del Mar, CA
i belong to an Emirati mentor organization at UC San Diego that mentors highly motivated undergrad students on scholarship. It’s an excellent program, something I wish I had the opportunity to participate when I was a student.

One of my colleagues who leads our Emirati mentor group sent out this note today about the potential danger and downside of bringing students back to campus at this point in the pandemic. The researcher who wrote the article feels that hoping that students can adhere to social distancing and wearing masks over time he feels is “delusional”. The article by a psychologist whose research deals with students in their twenties throws some cold water on this hope that returning students to campus will be able to follow health precautions over time. His prediction is that they will not be able to resist congregating once back on campus, and that will lead to further community spread of the virus as a result. Our college institutions will then have to deal with outbreaks on campus the researcher feels will be inevitable. I think we are already seeing signs that portends his concerns.
____________________________________________
Here is my colleague’s prologue to the recent OpEd he forwarded to our Emirati mentor group.

(While the University (referring to UCSD) is proceeding with caution in making its decisions concerning re-opening, there is a consideration that is voiced in the following article from the Wednesday (6/17/20) edition of the New York Times by Larry Steinberg. Larry is a Distinguished Professor of Psychology at Temple University and has studied Adolescence (probably as far back as when our mentees’ parents were at that stage of development) as completely as anyone you can find. We are sending you a copy of this not to be alarmist, but just as information and opinion to keep in mind as you think about approaches you will take with your mentees.

Link to NY Times Opinion archive:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/opinion/coronavirus-college-safe.html

NY Times Opinion

Expecting Students to Play It Safe if Colleges Reopen Is a Fantasy

Safety plans border on delusional and could lead to outbreaks of Covid-19 among students, faculty and staff.

By Laurence Steinberg

Dr. Steinberg is a professor of psychology at Temple University and the author of “Age of Opportunity: Lessons From the New Science of Adolescence.”

June 15, 2020

A number of American colleges and universities have decided to bring students back to campus this fall, believing they can diminish the risk of coronavirus transmission if everyone wears masks, uses hand sanitizer and social distances. Some schools also plan to reconfigure dorms to create family-sized clusters of uninfected students, who could socialize in relative safety, if only with their suite mates.

These plans are so unrealistically optimistic that they border on delusional and could lead to outbreaks of Covid-19 among students, faculty and staff.

My skepticism about the strategies under consideration is not based on videos of college students frolicking on Florida’s beaches when they were explicitly told to avoid large gatherings. Rather, it comes from more than 40 years teaching and researching young people.

Most types of risky behavior — reckless driving, criminal activity, fighting, unsafe sex and binge drinking, to name just a few — peak during the late teens and early 20s. Moreover, interventions designed to diminish risk-taking in this age group, such as attempts to squelch binge drinking on campus, have an underwhelming track record. There is little reason to think that the approaches proposed to mitigate transmission of the coronavirus among college students will fare any better. A series of studies that compare the ways in which young people and adults think and make decisions about risk-taking confirms this.

The late-adolescent peak in risky behavior has been found pretty much around the world. Although risky behavior is more common in some countries than others, the heightened risk-taking characteristic of adolescents, relative to adults, is more or less universal. My colleagues and I recently completed a study of more than 5,000 people between the ages of 10 and 30 from 11 different countries (including both Western and non-Western ones). Respondents answered a series of questions about the extent to which they had engaged in various types of risk-taking. Consistent with large-scale epidemiological studies, we found a peak in risk-taking somewhere between age 20 and 24 in virtually every country.

Our team has also conducted experiments in which we test participants on various risk-taking tasks under controlled conditions, which allows us to rule out any age differences in real-world risk-taking that might be caused by environmental factors, such as opportunity or cultural norms. As in our survey studies, risk-taking peaked during adolescence. Other studies, using different samples, have reached similar conclusions.

We’ve also conducted a series of experiments designed to identify just what it is about college-age individuals that accounts for their relatively greater propensity to take risks. Three factors appear to be most important.

First, this is the age at which we are most sensitive and responsive to the potential rewards of a risky choice, relative to the potential costs. College-age people are just as good as their elders at perceiving these benefits and dangers, but compared with older people, those who are college-aged give more weight to the potential gains. They are especially drawn to short-term rewards.

Second, college-aged people have more trouble exercising self-control than do those in their late 20s and beyond, an age difference that is amplified when people are emotionally aroused. Under calm conditions, college-age individuals can control their impulses as well as their elders, but when they are emotionally aroused, they evince the poor self-control of teenagers.

Finally, college-age people show more activation of the brain’s reward regions and are more likely to take risks when they are with their peers than when they are alone. There are no such effects of peers among people who are past their mid-20s.

Not all adolescents are risk-takers, of course, and not all adults are risk-averse. But it’s hard to think of an age during which risky behavior is more common and harder to deter than between 18 and 24, and people in this age make up about three-fourths of full-time American undergraduates.

And, in case it’s been a long time since you were in college, let me remind you that there is no shortage of rewarding temptations, emotional arousal or unsupervised peer groups on the typical college campus. It’s one of those perfect storms — people who are inclined to take risks in a setting that provides ample temptation to do so.

My pessimistic prediction is that the college and university reopening strategies under consideration will work for a few weeks before their effectiveness fizzles out. By then, many students will have become cavalier about wearing masks and sanitizing their hands. They will ignore social distancing guidelines when they want to hug old friends they run into on the way to class. They will venture out of their “families” and begin partying in their hallways with classmates from other clusters, and soon after, with those who live on other floors, in other dorms, or off campus. They will get drunk and hang out and hook up with people they don’t know well. And infections on campus — not only among students, but among the adults who come into contact with them — will begin to increase.

At that point, college administrators will find themselves in a very dicey situation, with few good options.

I look forward to a time when we are able to return to campus and in-person teaching. But a thorough discussion of whether, when and how we reopen our colleges and universities must be informed by what developmental science has taught us about how adolescents and young adults think. As someone who is well-versed in this literature, I will ask to teach remotely for the time being.

Laurence Steinberg is a professor of psychology at Temple University and the author of “Age of Opportunity: Lessons From the New Science of Adolescence.”
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: stowbilly
i belong to an Emirati mentor organization at UC San Diego that mentors highly motivated undergrad students on scholarship. It’s an excellent program, something I wish I had the opportunity to participate when I was a student. One of my colleagues sent out this note today about the potential danger and downside of bringing students back to campus at this point in the pandemic, hoping they can adhere to social distancing and wearing masks over time he feels is “delusional”. The article by a psychologist whose research deals with students in their twenties throws some cold water on this hope that returning students to campus will be able to follow health precautions over time. His prediction is that they will not be able to resist congregating once back on campus, and that will lead to further community spread of the virus as a result. Our college institutions will then have to deal with outbreaks on campus the researcher feels will be inevitable. I think we are already seeing signs that portends his concerns. Here is the text about the article:
_____________________________________
(While the University (referring to UCSD) is proceeding with caution in making its decisions concerning re-opening, there is a consideration that is voiced in the following article from the Wednesday (6/17/20) edition of the New York Times by Larry Steinberg. Larry is a Distinguished Professor of Psychology at Temple University and has studied Adolescence (probably as far back as when our mentees’ parents were at that stage of development) as completely as anyone you can find. We are sending you a copy of this not to be alarmist, but just as information and opinion to keep in mind as you think about approaches you will take with your mentees.

Link to NY Times Opinion archive:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/opinion/coronavirus-college-safe.html

NY Times Opinion

Expecting Students to Play It Safe if Colleges Reopen Is a Fantasy

Safety plans border on delusional and could lead to outbreaks of Covid-19 among students, faculty and staff.

By Laurence Steinberg

Dr. Steinberg is a professor of psychology at Temple University and the author of “Age of Opportunity: Lessons From the New Science of Adolescence.”

June 15, 2020

A number of American colleges and universities have decided to bring students back to campus this fall, believing they can diminish the risk of coronavirus transmission if everyone wears masks, uses hand sanitizer and social distances. Some schools also plan to reconfigure dorms to create family-sized clusters of uninfected students, who could socialize in relative safety, if only with their suite mates.

These plans are so unrealistically optimistic that they border on delusional and could lead to outbreaks of Covid-19 among students, faculty and staff.

My skepticism about the strategies under consideration is not based on videos of college students frolicking on Florida’s beaches when they were explicitly told to avoid large gatherings. Rather, it comes from more than 40 years teaching and researching young people.

Most types of risky behavior — reckless driving, criminal activity, fighting, unsafe sex and binge drinking, to name just a few — peak during the late teens and early 20s. Moreover, interventions designed to diminish risk-taking in this age group, such as attempts to squelch binge drinking on campus, have an underwhelming track record. There is little reason to think that the approaches proposed to mitigate transmission of the coronavirus among college students will fare any better. A series of studies that compare the ways in which young people and adults think and make decisions about risk-taking confirms this.

The late-adolescent peak in risky behavior has been found pretty much around the world. Although risky behavior is more common in some countries than others, the heightened risk-taking characteristic of adolescents, relative to adults, is more or less universal. My colleagues and I recently completed a study of more than 5,000 people between the ages of 10 and 30 from 11 different countries (including both Western and non-Western ones). Respondents answered a series of questions about the extent to which they had engaged in various types of risk-taking. Consistent with large-scale epidemiological studies, we found a peak in risk-taking somewhere between age 20 and 24 in virtually every country.

Our team has also conducted experiments in which we test participants on various risk-taking tasks under controlled conditions, which allows us to rule out any age differences in real-world risk-taking that might be caused by environmental factors, such as opportunity or cultural norms. As in our survey studies, risk-taking peaked during adolescence. Other studies, using different samples, have reached similar conclusions.

We’ve also conducted a series of experiments designed to identify just what it is about college-age individuals that accounts for their relatively greater propensity to take risks. Three factors appear to be most important.

First, this is the age at which we are most sensitive and responsive to the potential rewards of a risky choice, relative to the potential costs. College-age people are just as good as their elders at perceiving these benefits and dangers, but compared with older people, those who are college-aged give more weight to the potential gains. They are especially drawn to short-term rewards.

Second, college-aged people have more trouble exercising self-control than do those in their late 20s and beyond, an age difference that is amplified when people are emotionally aroused. Under calm conditions, college-age individuals can control their impulses as well as their elders, but when they are emotionally aroused, they evince the poor self-control of teenagers.

Finally, college-age people show more activation of the brain’s reward regions and are more likely to take risks when they are with their peers than when they are alone. There are no such effects of peers among people who are past their mid-20s.

Not all adolescents are risk-takers, of course, and not all adults are risk-averse. But it’s hard to think of an age during which risky behavior is more common and harder to deter than between 18 and 24, and people in this age make up about three-fourths of full-time American undergraduates.

And, in case it’s been a long time since you were in college, let me remind you that there is no shortage of rewarding temptations, emotional arousal or unsupervised peer groups on the typical college campus. It’s one of those perfect storms — people who are inclined to take risks in a setting that provides ample temptation to do so.

My pessimistic prediction is that the college and university reopening strategies under consideration will work for a few weeks before their effectiveness fizzles out. By then, many students will have become cavalier about wearing masks and sanitizing their hands. They will ignore social distancing guidelines when they want to hug old friends they run into on the way to class. They will venture out of their “families” and begin partying in their hallways with classmates from other clusters, and soon after, with those who live on other floors, in other dorms, or off campus. They will get drunk and hang out and hook up with people they don’t know well. And infections on campus — not only among students, but among the adults who come into contact with them — will begin to increase.

At that point, college administrators will find themselves in a very dicey situation, with few good options.

I look forward to a time when we are able to return to campus and in-person teaching. But a thorough discussion of whether, when and how we reopen our colleges and universities must be informed by what developmental science has taught us about how adolescents and young adults think. As someone who is well-versed in this literature, I will ask to teach remotely for the time being.

Laurence Steinberg is a professor of psychology at Temple University and the author of “Age of Opportunity: Lessons From the New Science of Adolescence.”
Thanks for posting this. Finally an objective study vifying what we all know to be true. And what ity really says is that the coming college football season, for all intents and purposes, is gone. It's not the stands that are at risk since they can be spread out but it is the players and their intimate exchange of bodily fluids, including droplets from the upper airway paths that are risky. Picture the winter where breath is visible as the moisture becomes visible as "smoke". I would be really surprised it the season finishes let alone start. Reports of COVID cases throughout the nation will pop up from multiple universities and colleges. Just my thoughts.
 
i belong to an Emirati mentor organization at UC San Diego that mentors highly motivated undergrad students on scholarship. It’s an excellent program, something I wish I had the opportunity to participate when I was a student. One of my colleagues sent out this note today about the potential danger and downside of bringing students back to campus at this point in the pandemic, hoping they can adhere to social distancing and wearing masks over time he feels is “delusional”. The article by a psychologist whose research deals with students in their twenties throws some cold water on this hope that returning students to campus will be able to follow health precautions over time. His prediction is that they will not be able to resist congregating once back on campus, and that will lead to further community spread of the virus as a result. Our college institutions will then have to deal with outbreaks on campus the researcher feels will be inevitable. I think we are already seeing signs that portends his concerns. Here is the text about the article:
_____________________________________
(While the University (referring to UCSD) is proceeding with caution in making its decisions concerning re-opening, there is a consideration that is voiced in the following article from the Wednesday (6/17/20) edition of the New York Times by Larry Steinberg. Larry is a Distinguished Professor of Psychology at Temple University and has studied Adolescence (probably as far back as when our mentees’ parents were at that stage of development) as completely as anyone you can find. We are sending you a copy of this not to be alarmist, but just as information and opinion to keep in mind as you think about approaches you will take with your mentees.

Link to NY Times Opinion archive:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/opinion/coronavirus-college-safe.html

NY Times Opinion

Expecting Students to Play It Safe if Colleges Reopen Is a Fantasy

Safety plans border on delusional and could lead to outbreaks of Covid-19 among students, faculty and staff.

By Laurence Steinberg

Dr. Steinberg is a professor of psychology at Temple University and the author of “Age of Opportunity: Lessons From the New Science of Adolescence.”

June 15, 2020

A number of American colleges and universities have decided to bring students back to campus this fall, believing they can diminish the risk of coronavirus transmission if everyone wears masks, uses hand sanitizer and social distances. Some schools also plan to reconfigure dorms to create family-sized clusters of uninfected students, who could socialize in relative safety, if only with their suite mates.

These plans are so unrealistically optimistic that they border on delusional and could lead to outbreaks of Covid-19 among students, faculty and staff.

My skepticism about the strategies under consideration is not based on videos of college students frolicking on Florida’s beaches when they were explicitly told to avoid large gatherings. Rather, it comes from more than 40 years teaching and researching young people.

Most types of risky behavior — reckless driving, criminal activity, fighting, unsafe sex and binge drinking, to name just a few — peak during the late teens and early 20s. Moreover, interventions designed to diminish risk-taking in this age group, such as attempts to squelch binge drinking on campus, have an underwhelming track record. There is little reason to think that the approaches proposed to mitigate transmission of the coronavirus among college students will fare any better. A series of studies that compare the ways in which young people and adults think and make decisions about risk-taking confirms this.

The late-adolescent peak in risky behavior has been found pretty much around the world. Although risky behavior is more common in some countries than others, the heightened risk-taking characteristic of adolescents, relative to adults, is more or less universal. My colleagues and I recently completed a study of more than 5,000 people between the ages of 10 and 30 from 11 different countries (including both Western and non-Western ones). Respondents answered a series of questions about the extent to which they had engaged in various types of risk-taking. Consistent with large-scale epidemiological studies, we found a peak in risk-taking somewhere between age 20 and 24 in virtually every country.

Our team has also conducted experiments in which we test participants on various risk-taking tasks under controlled conditions, which allows us to rule out any age differences in real-world risk-taking that might be caused by environmental factors, such as opportunity or cultural norms. As in our survey studies, risk-taking peaked during adolescence. Other studies, using different samples, have reached similar conclusions.

We’ve also conducted a series of experiments designed to identify just what it is about college-age individuals that accounts for their relatively greater propensity to take risks. Three factors appear to be most important.

First, this is the age at which we are most sensitive and responsive to the potential rewards of a risky choice, relative to the potential costs. College-age people are just as good as their elders at perceiving these benefits and dangers, but compared with older people, those who are college-aged give more weight to the potential gains. They are especially drawn to short-term rewards.

Second, college-aged people have more trouble exercising self-control than do those in their late 20s and beyond, an age difference that is amplified when people are emotionally aroused. Under calm conditions, college-age individuals can control their impulses as well as their elders, but when they are emotionally aroused, they evince the poor self-control of teenagers.

Finally, college-age people show more activation of the brain’s reward regions and are more likely to take risks when they are with their peers than when they are alone. There are no such effects of peers among people who are past their mid-20s.

Not all adolescents are risk-takers, of course, and not all adults are risk-averse. But it’s hard to think of an age during which risky behavior is more common and harder to deter than between 18 and 24, and people in this age make up about three-fourths of full-time American undergraduates.

And, in case it’s been a long time since you were in college, let me remind you that there is no shortage of rewarding temptations, emotional arousal or unsupervised peer groups on the typical college campus. It’s one of those perfect storms — people who are inclined to take risks in a setting that provides ample temptation to do so.

My pessimistic prediction is that the college and university reopening strategies under consideration will work for a few weeks before their effectiveness fizzles out. By then, many students will have become cavalier about wearing masks and sanitizing their hands. They will ignore social distancing guidelines when they want to hug old friends they run into on the way to class. They will venture out of their “families” and begin partying in their hallways with classmates from other clusters, and soon after, with those who live on other floors, in other dorms, or off campus. They will get drunk and hang out and hook up with people they don’t know well. And infections on campus — not only among students, but among the adults who come into contact with them — will begin to increase.

At that point, college administrators will find themselves in a very dicey situation, with few good options.

I look forward to a time when we are able to return to campus and in-person teaching. But a thorough discussion of whether, when and how we reopen our colleges and universities must be informed by what developmental science has taught us about how adolescents and young adults think. As someone who is well-versed in this literature, I will ask to teach remotely for the time being.

Laurence Steinberg is a professor of psychology at Temple University and the author of “Age of Opportunity: Lessons From the New Science of Adolescence.”
Nice article! But children present even more of a problem.
 
Don’t see how they can pull it off. Heck they cant even prevent spread when all they have to do is work with maybe a hundred athletes- see Clemson already.

The college atmosphere is just too ripe for the spread of something like this. And once you get a few cases how do you quarantine with all the communal exposures- dorm bathrooms, dining halls, etc, etc
 
Don’t see how they can pull it off. Heck they cant even prevent spread when all they have to do is work with maybe a hundred athletes- see Clemson already.

The college atmosphere is just too ripe for the spread of something like this. And once you get a few cases how do you quarantine with all the communal exposures- dorm bathrooms, dining halls, etc, etc
It will be hard to keep students in their own bubble isolated from other groups of students. I think this will apply as well to keeping student-athletes in a larger bubble with their own teammates and coaching staff.
At UCSD the administration is proposing to test everyone- students, faculty and staff, over 60,000 total, once a month. Those that show symptoms or exposed will be retested and quarantined, students will be reassigned to live in dorms set up for that quarantine and recovery. It will be interesting to see what percentage of students will return to campus compared to those who choose to stay home. Two of the three students I’m mentoring this past year are staying home for fall quarter. I’m supposed to have 1or 2 incoming freshmen assigned to me this fall, too early to know yet if they plan live on campus.

A lot can happen over the summer. We are seeing new clusters every week here in San Diego which is impacting the further opening of other types of businesses like movie theaters. Plus we are having an influx of tourists with the reopening of our local tourist attractions. It’s a very tenuous situation here.
 
I would argue that traumatic brain injury is a far bigger danger than covid for young, healthy athletes. Very few young, healthy people die or get severely ill from covid. According to cdc numbers from Feb. 1 through June 17th, nearly 11,000 Americans ages 15-24 died. Of those, 125 died from covid. (Almost all had underlying conditions.) The bigger risk is to older coaches and support staff, so those arguing for no football in the fall—even as colleges mostly return to on-campus living and teaching—have a stronger argument there.
 
I would argue that traumatic brain injury is a far bigger danger than covid for young, healthy athletes. Very few young, healthy people die or get severely ill from covid. According to cdc numbers from Feb. 1 through June 17th, nearly 11,000 Americans ages 15-24 died. Of those, 125 died from covid. (Almost all had underlying conditions.) The bigger risk is to older coaches and support staff, so those arguing for no football in the fall—even as colleges mostly return to on-campus living and teaching—have a stronger argument there.
Also but those athletes can infect their parents and grandparents and...
 
  • Like
Reactions: phatcat
Also but those athletes can infect their parents and grandparents and...
Indeed they can. They can also pass it on to coaches, as I mentioned. I’m simply saying that if the health of players is the concern, we would talk a lot more about brain injuries and a lot less about covid, if we’re basing our concern on actual data.
 
If the earlier age demographics hold true, there may be less risk to the population as a whole to segregate this risk taking group of 20 somethings from the general population. Yes, they will infect themselves, but they will not be coming home each day to pass the virus on to their parents and grandparents who are more vulnerable to its effects. Proactive steps can be taken to protect the faculty including encouraging all professors over a certain age to remain in separate locations and broadcast by video their lectures. Younger teaching assistants can provide the in person contact where necessary such as in lab settings.

Most of us are not fans of the herd immunity model, but it may well make sense to get this younger population exposed in an isolated campus setting where they can develop immunity to lessen the number of persons capable of infecting others once they return back to the general population. After all this is part of what is attempting to be accomplished by having a vaccine since many will still not be getting inoculated. (Reinfection may be viewed as more of a mere possibility rather than as a probability when balancing risk vs reward.)

And if we never get a vaccine, at least the pool of available antibody rich plasma donors may become easier to identify.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: Titanium999
If the earlier age demographics hold true, there may be less risk to the population as a whole to segregate this risk taking group of 20 somethings from the general population. Yes, they will infect themselves, but they will not be coming home each day to pass the virus on to their parents and grandparents who are more vulnerable to its effects. Proactive steps can be taken to protect the faculty including encouraging all professors over a certain age to remain in separate locations and broadcast by video their lectures. Younger teaching assistants can provide the in person contact where necessary such as in lab settings.
Absolutely correct
 
Absolutely correct
Actually you and Alaska don't feel that these kids will be visiting with their parents and other elders quite frequently? I do and expecting them to be isolated with those who might have been infected so they can build up an immunity is just not fair.
 
Last edited:
I would argue that traumatic brain injury is a far bigger danger than covid for young, healthy athletes. Very few young, healthy people die or get severely ill from covid. According to cdc numbers from Feb. 1 through June 17th, nearly 11,000 Americans ages 15-24 died. Of those, 125 died from covid. (Almost all had underlying conditions.) The bigger risk is to older coaches and support staff, so those arguing for no football in the fall—even as colleges mostly return to on-campus living and teaching—have a stronger argument there.
This is the crux of the issue: COVID is a serious threat to a small portion of the population. Worse yet, it is highly contagious and many carriers are asymptomatic.

My personal opinion is that COVID is here to stay. We are going to have to learn to live with it.
 
This is the crux of the issue: COVID is a serious threat to a small portion of the population. Worse yet, it is highly contagious and many carriers are asymptomatic.

My personal opinion is that COVID is here to stay. We are going to have to learn to live with it.
Agreed! But will we have college football?
 
I would argue that traumatic brain injury is a far bigger danger than covid for young, healthy athletes. Very few young, healthy people die or get severely ill from covid. According to cdc numbers from Feb. 1 through June 17th, nearly 11,000 Americans ages 15-24 died. Of those, 125 died from covid. (Almost all had underlying conditions.) The bigger risk is to older coaches and support staff, so those arguing for no football in the fall—even as colleges mostly return to on-campus living and teaching—have a stronger argument there.
Well said! Kids need sports too
 
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/21/us/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html

This article underscores the current spikes of infections in many states, esp more populated ones in the South like FL and TX are being driven by younger segment of the population mostly as a result of failing to follow social distancing guidelines and failure to wear masks in public. There is a map in the article that shows only a few states where wearing masks in public is required. The article states that the CDC is taking a closer look at the benefits of wearing a mask in public and may issue new guidelines. I’m skeptical, because of Trump and Pence’s attitudes and lack of leadership on this issue is fueling the pandemic in the US. Wearing masks and social distancing were in short supply at Trump’s pep rally last night. You won’t see either leader practicing CDC recommended guidelines so it’s less likely their followers will as well. We can’t fight the spread of the virus if half the states and people living in them fail to follow simple guidelines. In spite of what Trump and Pence want to project, infections are on the rise, particularly in the college age group up to those in their 30’s. This rising tide of infections does not bode well for re-opening colleges in the fall and bringing students back to campus. And we don’t know much yet about re-infections and the impact on herd immunity, the Swedish approach seems to have been a failure. The hope for a vaccine is still there but we appear to be at least 6-12 months away by the most optimistic standards. Even if we found candidates for vaccines we would still be faced with the daunting task of rolling out a vaccination campaign to inoculate billions of people across the globe. We already have struggles now in the US to have people get flu shots, and there are groups of “anti-vaxxers” promoting falsehoods about the efficacy of getting vaccinated. Yet another barrier fighting the virus even if we come up with vaccine(s), Will segments of our population fight getting inoculated? Summer will tell us the impact of re-opening without adherence to guidelines and if the rising rates of infection will continue.
 
Last edited:
I would argue that traumatic brain injury is a far bigger danger than covid for young, healthy athletes. Very few young, healthy people die or get severely ill from covid. According to cdc numbers from Feb. 1 through June 17th, nearly 11,000 Americans ages 15-24 died. Of those, 125 died from covid. (Almost all had underlying conditions.) The bigger risk is to older coaches and support staff, so those arguing for no football in the fall—even as colleges mostly return to on-campus living and teaching—have a stronger argument there.

The majority of people who develop covid will survive. However, an interesting question is will these covid affected athletes develop long lasting pulmonary complications that permanently affect their elite status? The kind of effect that means a running back's 4.4 sec 40 yard dash time is now 4.6 sec. A long lasting effect that means a lineman can't play more than a couple of downs before needing a breather? It'll be fascinating to see what the long term effects of the virus are.
 
The majority of people who develop covid will survive. However, an interesting question is will these covid affected athletes develop long lasting pulmonary complications that permanently affect their elite status? The kind of effect that means a running back's 4.4 sec 40 yard dash time is now 4.6 sec. A long lasting effect that means a lineman can't play more than a couple of downs before needing a breather? It'll be fascinating to see what the long term effects of the virus are.

The jury seems to be out on the subject of what, if any, long term effects there may be. A case can be made that such effects may be minimal for those fully recovered based upon looking at how other body organs have been documented to have responded to full out viral attacks with exhibit A being the liver's recovery from the Hepatitis A virus. Admittedly, the lungs are arguably a less regenerative organ but we all know at least anecdotaly of persons who suffered viral caused pneumonia who became completely well. It would be instructive to locate some actual studies.
 
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/21/us/us-coronavirus-sunday/index.html

This article underscores the current spikes of infections in many states, esp more populated ones in the South like FL and TX are being driven by younger segment of the population mostly as a result of failing to follow social distancing guidelines and failure to wear masks in public. There is a map in the article that shows only a few states where wearing masks in public is required. The article states that the CDC is taking a closer look at the benefits of wearing a mask in public and may issue new guidelines. I’m skeptical, because of Trump and Pence’s attitudes and lack of leadership on this issue is fueling the pandemic in the US. Wearing masks and social distancing were in short supply at Trump’s pep rally last night. You won’t see either leader practicing CDC recommended guidelines so it’s less likely their followers will as well. We can’t fight the spread of the virus if half the states and people living in them fail to follow simple guidelines. In spite of what Trump and Pence want to project, infections are on the rise, particularly in the college age group up to those in their 30’s. This rising tide of infections does not bode well for re-opening colleges in the fall and bringing students back to campus. And we don’t know much yet about re-infections and the impact on herd immunity, the Swedish approach seems to have been a failure. The hope for a vaccine is still there but we appear to be at least 6-12 months away by the most optimistic standards. Even if we found candidates for vaccines we would still be faced with the daunting task of rolling out a vaccination campaign to inoculate billions of people across the globe. We already have struggles now in the US to have people get flu shots, and there are groups of “anti-vaxxers” promoting falsehoods about the efficacy of getting vaccinated. Yet another barrier fighting the virus even if we come up with vaccine(s), Will segments of our population fight getting inoculated? Summer will tell us the impact of re-opening without adherence to guidelines and if the rising rates of infection will continue.
Illinois really seems to have a great handle on the virus! Definitely trending down! The problem is Northwestern football and the rest of college football plays a national schedule. I think things will collapse by October or November.
 
Illinois really seems to have a great handle on the virus! Definitely trending down! The problem is Northwestern football and the rest of college football plays a national schedule. I think things will collapse by October or November.

You can thank Pritzker for that. He has been thoughtful and consistent throughout this process. The ignorant partisan republicans in Illinois tried to bully him into relenting on his plan but he stuck to his guns and now we are reaping the benefits while other states are deteriorating rapidly.
 
You can thank Pritzker for that. He has been thoughtful and consistent throughout this process. The ignorant partisan republicans in Illinois tried to bully him into relenting on his plan but he stuck to his guns and now we are reaping the benefits while other states are deteriorating rapidly.

I don’t know enough about Illinois politics to know who to thank or blame but I am truly happy to learn that the COVID-19 response is working for you and my friends who still live there.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TheC and nugnrfan82
If the earlier age demographics hold true, there may be less risk to the population as a whole to segregate this risk taking group of 20 somethings from the general population. Yes, they will infect themselves, but they will not be coming home each day to pass the virus on to their parents and grandparents who are more vulnerable to its effects. Proactive steps can be taken to protect the faculty including encouraging all professors over a certain age to remain in separate locations and broadcast by video their lectures. Younger teaching assistants can provide the in person contact where necessary such as in lab settings.

Most of us are not fans of the herd immunity model, but it may well make sense to get this younger population exposed in an isolated campus setting where they can develop immunity to lessen the number of persons capable of infecting others once they return back to the general population. After all this is part of what is attempting to be accomplished by having a vaccine since many will still not be getting inoculated. (Reinfection may be viewed as more of a mere possibility rather than as a probability when balancing risk vs reward.)

And if we never get a vaccine, at least the pool of available antibody rich plasma donors may become easier to identify.
While I understand the logic in such an idea, as the parent of a rising college sophomore, I am not sure if I want my kid to be one of the guinea pigs in that experiment.
 
This is the crux of the issue: COVID is a serious threat to a small portion of the population. Worse yet, it is highly contagious and many carriers are asymptomatic.

My personal opinion is that COVID is here to stay. We are going to have to learn to live with it.
You may well be correct that we will have to learn to live with it. Right now, however there too many unknowns about how it will continue to spread and what infection rates will be in the fall. How many fires have caused much greater damage than initially because someone thought the embers were all extinguished?
 
I think the increases in the South and West has to be of concern, esp. with the trend of higher infection rates among younger segments of the population that are not practicing social distancing and are not wearing masks. This younger segment may not have significant symptoms to the degree requiring hospitalization, but more info is coming out that young people with mild or no symptoms still may be a risk for organ damage. We are seeing significant upticks here in San Diego as a result of re-opening. The ag area east of San Diego County, Imperial County has the highest infection rates in the state now and hospitals in San Diego has stopped taking on transfers from Imperial County hospitals in anticipation of increased hospitalizations here because of the recent spikes in infections. Many cases are ag workers living in crowded conditions. Imperial County is a key ag area in the state growing a big chunk of the state’s and the nation’s produce. Many are also commuting from across the border. Mexico is having their own problems dealing with the pandemic and border areas are impacted as a result.
 
I think the increases in the South and West has to be of concern, esp. with the trend of higher infection rates among younger segments of the population that are not practicing social distancing and are not wearing masks. This younger segment may not have significant symptoms to the degree requiring hospitalization, but more info is coming out that young people with mild or no symptoms still may be a risk for organ damage. We are seeing significant upticks here in San Diego as a result of re-opening. The ag area east of San Diego County, Imperial County has the highest infection rates in the state now and hospitals in San Diego has stopped taking on transfers from Imperial County hospitals in anticipation of increased hospitalizations here because of the recent spikes in infections. Many cases are ag workers living in crowded conditions. Imperial County is a key ag area in the state growing a big chunk of the state’s and the nation’s produce. Many are also commuting from across the border. Mexico is having their own problems dealing with the pandemic and border areas are impacted as a result.
You would think these new waves wouldn't be as bad because we learned so much from the first wave in April. Masks really help. Social distancing really helps. Staying home unless absolutely necessary really helps. If people would just be smart, these new surges could be slowed and eventually turned around. But it requires patience and diligence. The I-want-it-all-and-I-want-it-now culture in America is really hurting us.
 
You would think these new waves wouldn't be as bad because we learned so much from the first wave in April. Masks really help. Social distancing really helps. Staying home unless absolutely necessary really helps. If people would just be smart, these new surges could be slowed and eventually turned around. But it requires patience and diligence. The I-want-it-all-and-I-want-it-now culture in America is really hurting us.
"The I-want-it-all-and-I-want-it-now President is really hurting us." A little leadership now and then isn't too much to ask.
 
Not hard. Not politics or conspiracies. Don't blame others. Don't find fault or whine. Use common sense and show respect. Mask, distance, cut down the interactions. Maybe save your life or another's or prevent a bad outcome. What's the debate? Stupid is as stupid does.
 
True, but more personal responsibility would be great. There are a lot of doofus Americans.
Doofus Americans should not be encouraged to be more doofus than they already are. This is why we have been a successful country, in the past we have worked hard to reduce doofusness.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Titanium999
Not hard. Not politics or conspiracies. Don't blame others. Don't find fault or whine. Use common sense and show respect. Mask, distance, cut down the interactions. Maybe save your life or another's or prevent a bad outcome. What's the debate? Stupid is as stupid does.
Are masks sound policy? Breathing in your own CO3?
 
It makes zero sense to keep classrooms closed as the data doesnt support a continual closedown.
Fear has robbed the brains of the weak and their unsound mind has caused a whole lot of crazy.
 
Odd fact. Daily deaths counts are falling as case counts increase significantly. Also, hospitalizations are falling except in a few States. Doing better job protecting the most vulnerable or treating the very ill? How do current percentages of death and hospitalizations track against say flu? Probably still bad but is there a risk analysis now that makes reopening sports and schools more doable?
 
Odd fact. Daily deaths counts are falling as case counts increase significantly. Also, hospitalizations are falling except in a few States. Doing better job protecting the most vulnerable or treating the very ill? How do current percentages of death and hospitalizations track against say flu? Probably still bad but is there a risk analysis now that makes reopening sports and schools more doable?
It may reflect that the younger demographic are leading the rates of infection. I did hear on the news that close to 20% of new hospitalizations are coming from younger segment under 30. Pretty scary. I have a high school friend who teaches at med school in Dallas and works at Parkland. He said Dallas and Houston are seeing dramatic increases in infections and hospitalizations. Some hospitals in both cities are approaching 80% capacity. AZ is spiking also, which is concerning because of the numbers of AZ tourists who visit SoCal in the summer.
 
It may reflect that the younger demographic are leading the rates of infection. I did hear on the news that close to 20% of new hospitalizations are coming from younger segment under 30. Pretty scary. I have a high school friend who teaches at med school in Dallas and works at Parkland. He said Dallas and Houston are seeing dramatic increases in infections and hospitalizations. Some hospitals in both cities are approaching 80% capacity. AZ is spiking also, which is concerning because of the numbers of AZ tourists who visit SoCal in the summer.
We are seeing a similar demographic trend here in Forsyth County, NC. This county is the 4th most populated in the 9th largest state. Cases have continuously increased since the end of April and haven't hit a plateau yet. Here are the current data on positive cases:

15-24 Years 16%
25-34 20%
35-44 20%
45-54 16%
55-64 11%
>64 8%

The most at-risk population are taking the greatest precaution. Death rate for the 15-44 cohort is minimal, just 2 deaths out of 28 in the County (50% of the deaths are in the >65 cohort).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gladeskat
Also but those athletes can infect their parents and grandparents and...

I have five grandchildren , we all Social distance to protect Gramps and Granma.We aren’t fanatics about it but the kids know we aren’t going into each other’s houses, just backyards and around the pool.
I am less worried every day, my partners 73 year old overweight, with diabetes wife got the virus, she had fever, slight cough and was weak for 3 days and by the end of 7 she was totally fine.
Apparently putting too many people on ventilators and sending patients to nursing homes was a big part of the high death rate.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Titanium999
I have five grandchildren , we all Social distance to protect Gramps and Granma.We aren’t fanatics about it but the kids know we aren’t going into each other’s houses, just backyards and around the pool.
I am less worried every day, my partners 73 year old overweight, with diabetes wife got the virus, she had fever, slight cough and was weak for 3 days and by the end of 7 she was totally fine.
Apparently putting too many people on ventilators and sending patients to nursing homes was a big part of the high death rate.
Also apparently treating it as a hoax, sure didn't help.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NUCat320
ADVERTISEMENT