Brumbaugh recruiting and decision
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SDakGordie and IdahoAlum:
I think you guys stated the issues clearly. We definitely CAN have a winning record in the Big Ten, but it will be difficult to get to the top tier of college basketball. For me, thats not the goal, anyhow. I just want us to be consistently good - acknowledging that academic standards prevent us from being Kentucky.
I am optimistic that things are moving in the right direction "talent-wise." My concern remains that Chris Collins can bring guys in, but hasn't been able to deliver on the promise. I'm glad he got Brumbaugh to commit for 2022.
What I expect this season is a winning record in the league. We just have too much talent to repeat last year's misery. Simmons (more highly rated than Brumbaugh) and Roper should help. Young and Nance are both good players. If Buie or Audige or Berry steps forward, things are looking pretty bright. Thats reasonable to expect, especially from Berry, but at least 2 of those guys should improve. Maybe something will click for Beran, though I'm not holding my breath. Obviously I have already stated my opinion on Nicholson's untapped value.
I don't think the "musical chairs" approach for playing time is particularly effective and I hope Coach Collins can settle on lineups that produce positive results. Last year, his insistence on playing Beran and Nance together was just consistently negative on the scoreboard. "Players have to know their roles..."
I think a fair take would be that NU should sell itself. We have seen Stanford attract by it's academic stature. DePaul by it's proximity to Chicago. Any number of B1G programs because they are B1G. In those cases, there is nothing discouraging the recruit, detracting from quality.
Here we have a tradition of losing - that detracts. We have a coaching staff that arguably fails to develop and doesn't 'coach' well - whether you agree or not, the perception detracts. We have had some bad PR come out MBB - that detracts. And our facilities are still quite inferior to most B1G programs and many lesser conference programs - big detract.
So in the end, the minuses often outweigh the positives leaving it to the recruiting skills of our coaching staff to tip the scale. I can acknowledge that CCC and his crew have had much more success than his predecessors. And that's great. But sports are about wins and losses and in MBB, dancing. In this category, CCC is no longer clearly better than his predecessors. He brought one dance that also relied on prior admin players. He has not reached any tournament with just his players.
As such, it's fair to commend his recruiting success, but just don't lose sight of his overall losing program. If that doesn't change, then he should go. If you are among the group that is simply happy to have a program that graduates players, I have nothing to discuss with you. We have fundamental differences.
We've had some spectacular disappointments that should give most people caution on being all that optimistic:
1) The year after the tournament - Same core, but older. Oh but All State, glue guy.. Oh my
2) The Ryan Taylor team - Plenty of talent to be a tourney team and definitely not a mediocre one as it happened. Oh but Lathon, oh injuries
For me this coming here is #3 on the potential huge disappointments. The experience is there. The depth is there. If it does not happen, not sure how you convince yourself the issue is not coaching.
1) The year after the tournament - Same core, but older. Oh but All State, glue guy.. Oh my
2) The Ryan Taylor team - Plenty of talent to be a tourney team and definitely not a mediocre one as it happened. Oh but Lathon, oh injuries
For me this coming here is #3 on the potential huge disappointments. The experience is there. The depth is there. If it does not happen, not sure how you convince yourself the issue is not coaching.
Let’s face it - I just never did and never will expect our rise out of the absolute cellar of big-time college basketball to be easy. And it’s likely not going to be truly sustainable short of a miracle. Volatility in our W/L results; difficulties with team chemistry; kids that don’t like the role of being perpetual underdogs; playing the toughest of schedules - all in, that’s expected, and not an easy road to convince any kid to take. But Collins is pushing our program and our kids to do it. It’s the best recipe for the future success of NU BBall we’ve seen in my lifetime, so he’s still got my support.
You haven’t talked to many D1 recruits if you don’t think relationships are one of the top reason if the not the reason they commit to a school. Obviously ability to get you the next level is part of that but I can’t tell you how many guys I’ve talked to said I connected with ____ coach and they’re gonna use me to do xyz.
It’s normally not the head coach for football recruits but for the b-ball recruits I’ve talked to id say 60% assistant coaches 40% head coach. Granted most of the head coach guys I’ve talked to played at MSU. So that could be more Izzo than what the recruiting landscape is really like. I also really only met guys who committed to Illinois and Michigan schools or into a D2 Michigan school from other schools. Never a top 10 prospect. Although I will bet that relationships is still pretty big with them because they’re good enough to get to the next level no matter where they go. Heck look at PBJ.
The main issue with recruiting right now is it’s easy to recruit against NU given their history and recent record. Given who Collins pulled in shows the ability he has to sell what NU has going for it. I think he’s mainly selling them on how they can be the tipping point player. They’re only 1-2 pieces away and you could be that piece. A player of your caliber is what we are missing. Etc.
PG by committee does not mean that they did not have a true PG on the roster Often it . That was what we have been facing for years since the toutney. First there was the injury to BMac. Then there was the attempt to use a couple 2/3 for the position and that just did not work. Finally we were getting a bit closer last year but again not a true PG.
Weren't really saying that in the run up to dance. Of course at that time we had the true PG/LG. A solid PG is not the be all end all but it is the great equalizer. And for a team with less overall talent, hard to have success we would all like to see without one They make everyone else better so if you don't have at least one, you are going to have to have so much talent everywhere else that you can overcome it. And while our talent at other positions has been improving, not enough to do without the true floor general
Kopp was a great recruit but he was more of a one trick pony. And that was on the wing hitting 3s. He could not create his own shot and he was not great on D. If you can get him the ball in the right situation he could be a huge asset but if you were lacking in ability to do that, hard to get the most out of his talents.... When you have close games, talent tends to win out and we have been a little short at the key position. Reality is that the Lathon situation probably set us back 3 years
This is why I feel this is CCCs first or second most important recruit and is a huge get for the program.
May I recommend you add “my optimism remains” as a permanent signature? 😀🙄🤗
Wow. The hate. Glad im sitting this thread out. Of course collins deserves credit for this recruit. Only idiots would argue otherwise. Glad to see this board finally discussing things. Wierd how its such a negative on here when its such great news.
Uh-huh. The past is the past. And the future is the future. It's not just how you choose to look at the future. It's how you choose to look at the past as well.
You choose to look at it one way while other people choose to look at it differently. So, your failure to be able to see how other people don't share your optimism is just as much about your inability to see what they see as it is about their inability to see what you see.
I don't see any hate being expressed in this thread whatsoever.
Some people think Collins is a subpar Big Ten coach.
They (we) point to facts to support their opinion.
Almost no one, including me, thinks he is a bad recruiter.
None of that adds up to hate... not even remotely close.
I think you are confusing disappointment and frustration with hatred.
Rivals national columnist Mike Farrell said he was “not surprised at all” that Northwestern is the best in the country at player retention. Why? “Because kids who choose Northwestern usually make a decision for the long term with academics heavily weighed in,” he said.
He was talking about football, but he makes my point brilliantly.
He was talking about football, but he makes my point brilliantly.
I am sure I missed one post here and there, but I believe I have read virtually all of the Collins pessimism posts. From my experience and those posts, I have come to what I believe is an informed opinion. Informed opinions are not failures, by either side. And informed is the key word. They need to be reasonable and supported by the data. (I won’t go rant board). So, I’m not “failing” to see. As a result, I don’t believe it is an argument of equality of who failed to see something. If each side always believed it was not seeing the reality of the other side equally, then why even bother thinking and having the discussion?
My informed opinion is that the recent data (viewed relative to my 35 years following NU sports) suggests more optimism for our program. I’ve stated my disappointment and frustration watching recent games, so I am not ignoring reality. I’ve heard arguments about Nance/Young combo PT, but I ultimately don’t think this is a fatal flaw of Collins (and I surmise they are not statistically credible). I also don’t think any coach is perfect.
Message boards often tend to get a mob mentality, and I think the group is imbalanced in that regard as to Collins. I think people find it much easier to pile on when it comes to criticism. And that’s hardly debatable in our society.
At the risk of generating more hate - I don’t see any objective evidence from recruits or experts in college basketball to suggest Collins deserves these board hater accusations that he does not develop players or does not run technically sound sets. The guy has a Hall of Fame player/coach for a father and he’s obviously loved by players. How can anyone be so sure he’s a village idiot so as to throw venom his way on such a regular basis and dismiss his potential for future success? Fitz has learned a bit along the way, I think he and all would agree. I think Collins will continue to do so, and things recently point that way based on his ability to convince the kids of it.
Go Cats!!
You're so consumed by who hates and who is optimistic that you struggle to be able to see what other people are actually posting. That's why you say things like "and that's hardly debatable" immediately following a sentence that starts "I think...".
IMHO, there's not much value discussing things with people who says things like "It's not debatable". So, good luck with your "informed opinion." I hope that optimism about the future of NU basketball proves warranted.
Message boards getting out of hand is hardly debatable. That’s all I said was. If you don’t believe that, we cannot have a rational conversation.
It's "not debatable" and "we cannot have a rational conversation". Engaging with you isn't very interesting...and that not even taking into account that what you say you said doesn't really resemble what you actually said.
I guess you prefer very uninteresting things.It's "not debatable" and "we cannot have a rational conversation". Engaging with you isn't very interesting...and that not even taking into account that what you say you said doesn't really resemble what you actually said.
I think he’s a bad recruiter. Recruiting is more than just closing the deal on a player’s commitment. Recruiting is also talent identification and roster management. Can you find players that fit your system? Can you find underrated players that other programs have overlooked? These are all things that Collins is not good at. How many of Collins 4 star recruits end up being busts? That’s not the mark of a good recruiter.
Congrats to Northwestern and coaching staff on landing Brumbaugh, the top rated point guard in Northwestern history. A position of need for the Wildcats , the guard position is looking solid over the next three/four years.
1-Your inference that if someone is not a great coach, he's seen as a village idiot is, from an argumentative standpoint, desperate.
2-CC is good at: recruiting, even the arguments of not being able to recruit for play style or position are, IMO, not great arguments. To a great extent, if you are NU, you take the best you can, and you adapt to make it work. We are not Kentucky, and even Kentucky patches, portal and whatnot. He is also good at keeping a team somewhat together. It's a small miracle "only" three players left and one was a walk on and another had graduated. So the fact the players continue to believe in him is no small feat.
3-There's so much wrong about Collins that is not recruiting: player development, overall strategy to fit roster, lineups, substitution patters, overuse of zone, poor principles on zone defense, game management, game management in closing minutes, demeanor towards players mistakes... The biggest one for me is what, IMO unravels the whole thing: overall style of play. Wanting to have a style suited for fast and physical guards. The ones that. despite all the progress in recruiting, we never seem to get (see why I'm impressed and excited about Brumbaugh). You can't want a 5 out, create space, Nance at the five, force the tempo, type of play without fast and physical guards/wings.
All these arguments are debatable, they are based on opinion that even when associated with data are still debatable. Hence your disdain for the "statistical significance" of lineup analysis. They will always be debatable.
But you know what is not debatable? Wins and losses. Those are pretty black and white. Even when someone tries to argue all the enormous laundry list of excuses we come up with, they are still black and white. Over 7 years the averages are going to be black and white. Only way the numbers are not black and white is if we are the unluckiest Mofos on the planet:
CC
Overall W/L: 118/134 (46.8%)
B1G W/L: 49/100 (32.9%)
That's atrocious.
So this year, seasoned players and all.... Optimistic? Hell no. Hopeful. Hell, yes.
Even with our better talent, we are still much closer to the bottom than the top of the BIG in talent . In that position, you need a solid PG to overcome the deficit and since the Tourney team, we really have not had that
Somehow my conversations are interesting and informed enough, hoosboot, to keep getting interesting and informed responses. I must got some skills, which hopefully at least allows me to be deserving enough in your eyes to converse on the board.
I don’t dispute Collins’ record, Gato. It sucks. The point is that it’s no worse than other NU coaches in the modern age of hoops, and the question whether there is a future with him.
(BTW - I am an actuary, so I have some understanding of statistical significance and credibility. What I said was if the Nance/Young combo issue were proven to have statistical significance, I would accept it as true. That being said, my opinions are not based on rigorous statistical analysis either
Our main point of difference is the Collins “system”. I have said he needs to play the fast-paced, guard-based system to attract the recruits we need in the modern age. (The change in how the game is played in the modern basketball era vs. prior eras is indisputable, by the way - some things just are). You have said this is not the way to do it. It is very debatable if should change his system every year to better match his (lack of) players. So, I’m happy to hear more about the best system he should use, and also happy to hear how in the heck Brumbaugh would have committed to NU under this system you think is best.
After this, I’ll cease to offer my uninteresting topics and not subject hoosboot to my poor conversation skills.
I don’t dispute Collins’ record, Gato. It sucks. The point is that it’s no worse than other NU coaches in the modern age of hoops, and the question whether there is a future with him.
(BTW - I am an actuary, so I have some understanding of statistical significance and credibility. What I said was if the Nance/Young combo issue were proven to have statistical significance, I would accept it as true. That being said, my opinions are not based on rigorous statistical analysis either
Our main point of difference is the Collins “system”. I have said he needs to play the fast-paced, guard-based system to attract the recruits we need in the modern age. (The change in how the game is played in the modern basketball era vs. prior eras is indisputable, by the way - some things just are). You have said this is not the way to do it. It is very debatable if should change his system every year to better match his (lack of) players. So, I’m happy to hear more about the best system he should use, and also happy to hear how in the heck Brumbaugh would have committed to NU under this system you think is best.
After this, I’ll cease to offer my uninteresting topics and not subject hoosboot to my poor conversation skills.
It's not debatable that your conversation skills are on par with you guessing ability. In fact, it's indisputable. I can't imagine how someone could think otherwise. Is it getting through yet? 🤷♂️
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Some message board folks tend to overstate points made for specific reasons and turn them into unfounded generalizations.
Best for you to head back to The Rock with the other geriatrics
I could counter every single argument you just made. Easily. But see, debatable. Wins/losses, not debatable. We agree on that.
If I understood what you propose is that the system is all good as it will attract the players needed to fit into it. Kind of a death spiral if you ask me. And I think you’d find plenty of great basketball minds disagreeing that the modern basketball is what CC puts on the floor. At best I’d agree that, at the professional level, that is somewhat true. At least in the sense that the game is a lot more about spacing. More about guarda? BS. The Lakers won the title two years ago with mediocre guard play. The Bucks had one decent guard they did not depend on. Spacing yes, execution in it comes from your best players, regardless of position. Denver Nuggets? Jokic?
Now go back to college. Not even remotely the same. There’s not enough Uber talented players to rely on exploring pick and rolls over and over again. These players you can’t get under the pick and roll or they’ll nail 3’s all night long. So you switch even if that means a 7 footer gets left guarding a guard. There just isn’t, so you get pitiful displays of just running things for the hell of it because your players can’t execute. Won’t shoot, won’t be able to penetrate because they’re not fast enough, etc.
Relying on the thought that CC should just be given indefinite time, because his system is what will make us louisville (so that we don’t always pick traditional blue bloods here) reminds me of the Japanese corporate stories of companies with 100 year plans. That’s fine, but even those plans get revised. You know, when you realize you are not pounding a rock, but are just pounding solid steel.
This is reality. Basketball has changed drastically with the three point shot opening up the court.
Pulled this from Big Ten website... Note that in conference games last season, every team's final conference record was directly dependent on its rebounding margin compared to other Big Ten teams.
| Rebound Margin | Big Ten Winning Pct | |
| Michigan | 9.8 | 0.824 |
| Illinois | 9.6 | 0.8 |
| Iowa | 8.4 | 0.7 |
| Purdue | 4.6 | 0.684 |
| OSU | 3.6 | 0.6 |
| Wisconsin | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Rutgers | -0.6 | 0.5 |
| Maryland | -1.3 | 0.45 |
| MSU | -2.7 | 0.45 |
| Indiana | -3.5 | 0.368 |
| Penn St | -5.3 | 0.368 |
| NU | -6 | 0.316 |
| Minnesota | -6.8 | 0.3 |
| Nebraska | -10.2 | 0.158 |
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