I have looked at our schedule this year and two glaring tough games seem to be on our schedule. That being Penn State and Wisconsin. In my opinion, PSU is a clear season changer if we can beat them. That would be a serious accomplishment winning over them. I think that they are due the hype. But we seem to almost always play psu/franklin tough. Most likely, if we come to play, that will be a close game- and it is in Evanston right? But is it that much of a stretch that we can win over Wisconsin? Believe me, I'd love to. They are ranked a pre-season #12 by a lot of people. But are they over or under-hyped this year? I'm not sure. We beat them two years ago after some amazing calls late in the fourth quarter. This year, almost every prognosticator says we will lose to them and they will make it to the BIG championship game again this season- not us. But upon closer inspection, I think we have more of a chance than many are giving us. I am hoping that this year's version of UW football is like the MSU of 16'. My case in point. Don't they have a new DC for the third year in a row- named Jim Leanard (promoted from secondary coach)? They lost TJ Watt, Biegel and Clement from last year's team- arguably their best players. Sure- their OL will be very strong again- but won't our DL be too? Their qb- Hornibrook, has a suspect arm and only completed 58% of his passes- a lot of short throws too (only9tds to 7int). They do have a star transfer stud rb in Chris James (from Pitt- who we beat last year). But we have JJ and one of the best qbs in the nation in CThor. Wisc doesn't play Osu this year unless they play in the championship game against each other. They do get a bye week before they play us- if I read their schedule right. But is that really that much of an advantage? Am I missing something here? If I was a prognosticator/predictor of games, I'd say even though we play Wisc/Chryst (21-6, 13-4BT) in Madison, we have a good chance to win. Am I missing something here? Why do most season previewers say otherwise?
Can we beat Wisconsin this year?
- Thread starter mickbula
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I think various prognosticators believe both of their lines match up well with both of ours. If this is true and they can control the LOS, then they probably will win. I like the interior of our D-Line. If our O-Line makes some anticipated strides and we get good play from our DEs, then we very well could win both of those games.
I think the Cats have a chance, but if I was a third party prognosticator, my logic would be:
Last year Badgers won 21-7 during the "strong" period of Northwestern's season performances, holding the Cats to 39 yards rushing. Wisconsin returns 17 starters, Northwestern 16. Wisconsin loses four of their best players (Clement, Watt, Ramczyk and Biegel) while NU loses two of its best (Carr and Walker). Biggest loss to either team probably Carr. Game shifts to Madison. Wisconsin's line dominance on both sides of ball unlikely to change, so pick Wisconsin.
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I think (hope) that our OL will be improved over last year, while the DL will not have much of a dropoff though they lose Ifeadi and X on the outside. Losing Ant will hurt, but I believe Fox and Fisher will play very well at Mike.
So hell yeah, we can and will beat Wiskey this year.
So hell yeah, we can and will beat Wiskey this year.
Interesting comparison to Michigan State. The Spartans' defense was still good in 2015, the first year without Narduzzi, but they fell off a cliff last year. Wisconsin's defense was still solid last year without Aranda, but you have to wonder if they'll start to slip this year. My speculation is that the year after a superstar DC leaves, the veteran players and remaining coaches can hold things together in the short term but then start to falter after that.
But other WR improving and new talent available so with CT a year older and more experienced, I expect him to have less of a need for he security blanket AC provided and likely to find another. We have talent coming in to replace AW but his game experience will be missed. THat said, was he up to speed health wise at the WIS game last year? And or lines look to improve so pretty much of a toss other than home field.
We will definitely not beat Illinois State this year.
The B1G West will be won in the trenches first and foremost.
Wisconsin and Iowa each have shown that as we hit Year 4.
What did Bret Bielema do in Year 3 in Madison?
How's Barry Alvarez doing this year, with his program with a third DC in 3 years?
Could we see some chinks forming in the armour?
Wisconsin and Iowa each have shown that as we hit Year 4.
- Northwestern has won 2 of last 3 in this series
What did Bret Bielema do in Year 3 in Madison?
How's Barry Alvarez doing this year, with his program with a third DC in 3 years?
Could we see some chinks forming in the armour?
The same logic applied from 2015 to 2016 meant NU should have won in 2016. NU won in 2015 winning the battle on both sides of the line in Madison. UW's QB graduated and Thorson returned. Certainly the game moving to Evanston favored the cats. The Badgers had another other idea...
It's silly to try forecast this because hundreds of things that still need to happen (or not happen) between now and game time that are impossible to forecast. I'll venture a guess a week or so before they play the game after seeing the 2017 teams actually play a bit.
Right now, It doesn't make sense to be anywhere but in the ~50-50 probability range (consistent with the past 25 years of outcomes between these two teams) with perhaps a little boost to Bucky because the game is at Camp Randall.
P.S. I'm sure a Badger would tell you Clement is a bigger loss than Austin Carr.
In UW's victories, they have dominated the LOS (usually on both sides), which is why Bucky's margins for victory have been so high (in the years they've beaten NU).
However, a main point of the spread is to take the onus off of the OL's ability to control the LOS. The spread (aka "Sissy Ball") is about spacing, stretching and influence blocking and allowing a running back to find his holes rather than requiring an OL to dig holes for them. Get a hat on everyone and let the running back read where to go.
UW's style requires them to control the LOS to win. NU merely needs to not get whipped at the LOS.
When NU has gotten whipped at the LOS, it's been ugly (e.g., 2006, 2010, 2013). However, I cannot say NU has definitely won both sides of the LOS in any of its wins (since 1996) with perhaps the exception of the 2015 game where UW had an uncharacteristically sissy ball (QB reliant) offense...
NU's defensive front more than held its own against UW's OL in the 2004 and 2016 losses, but UW's defensive front absolutlely whipped NU's OL in those games.
Going into 2017, I think NU's defensive front is too good to get whipped by UW's offensive line. I'm less certain how NU's OL will match up with UW's front 7. OL was an extreme weakness for NU in 2016. I don't think the NU OL will be a strength in 2017, but I think it will be vastly improved from the 2016 unit.
I think speculation on a big game is a traditional part of the off season and doesn't have to be taken too seriously. Your point that Badger fans might regard the loss of Clement as more serious than the Cats' loss of Carr might be true for Badger fans, but I was trying to take imagine what an objective pundit might think. Carr was by a wide measure the conference leader for his position, averaging 20% more yards per game than his next competitor. Clement was at best 3rd at his position behind Barkley and Jackson (and had the lowest per carry average among the top 10 in yardage).
In saying that the Cats dominated both sides in 2015 and hence should have won in 2016, in comparing the transition for both teams last year to this, in 2016 the Cats returned only 13 starters, losing Lowery and Gibson, while Wisconsin only returned 11. This year the Cats return 16, Bucky 17. The 2017 game builds more on last year's base than the 2016 game did. Objectively, NU will have to improve on the offensive, which I think they might, if they are going to win. Wisconsin has an offense that has no real demonstrated big play talent, but they might have a big play RB in Chris James coming from Pitt. The original poster in the thread raised the question as to why third party analysts were picking Wisconsin. I was filling in the answer.
I guess part of the fun of off season speculation is figuring what to watch in the non-conference: for Bucky, who emerges at running back and what sort of growth Hornibrook shows at QB. For the Cats, it is how the offensive line play is, what sort of pass rush the DE's can mount, and whether there is a steady kicker. I do think if the OL shows consistency in the non-conference season, the game is a tossup.
Jim Leonard is a cool story.
He's a former walk safety in the early/mid 2000s for the Badgers who received multiple conference and national honors. Also played in the NFL for roughly a decade.
He's has a great understanding of the game, but has only been coaching for one year. It'll be interesting to see how he handles the transition to coordinator. Apparently, Dave Aranda (former Wisc DC) was grooming him for the job as Leonard spent 2015 with Arnada studying film and common schemes used in Division I that aren't prevalent in the pro game.
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What I'm most worried about is our DE position. With losing Iffy and X-Wash, I could see a situation similar to the 2nd half of the Iowa game in 2015 developing - where their Tackles just start blowing our tired and thin DEs off the ball. I think our overall offense should be better than theirs this year, and certainly more balanced, as CT18 is much better than Hornibrook. But I think the strength of their offense (a varied running attack with multiple looks, that puts stress on both the edge and center of the DL) is uniquely positioned to take advantage of the one big vulnerability in our defense. For us to win, I think the offense will need to have an excellent day - with ToP and ball control being important to keep our Defense rested. But Wisconsin's defense should be really good again next year, they lost some good OLBs but they seem to have an unlimited supply of those, and they return nearly everyone else.
I actually like our chances to spring an upset over PSU more than I do beat Wisconsin - due to a combination of the matchups, and because we get them at home. The problem then though is if that happens we give Wiscy the tiebreaker over us for the division, so we'd have to run the table and hope UW loses two - potentially @Neb the week after us, or in their 3 game finishing stretch of Iowa, Michigan, @Minnesota.
Far too early to speculate no doubt, and all these strengths and weaknesses could easily change on 9/2 (who would've thought WR would be a strength last year??) but hey it's the offseason so why not wonder.
Our DL should be stout against the run. It's generating pass rush that I worry about.
Wisconsin isn't spotless at home.
Iowa is going for third straight in Madison. Kirk Ferentz is 4-1 in Madison, since the Hawkeyes first Big Ten title in 2002.
Northwestern won last game in Madison, as well.
Senior Day in Madison has been good for several opponents, not named Minnesota.
Badgers have 13 straight win streak over rival Gophers.
We shall see how the B1G season squares off across the conference.
Iowa is going for third straight in Madison. Kirk Ferentz is 4-1 in Madison, since the Hawkeyes first Big Ten title in 2002.
Northwestern won last game in Madison, as well.
Senior Day in Madison has been good for several opponents, not named Minnesota.
Badgers have 13 straight win streak over rival Gophers.
We shall see how the B1G season squares off across the conference.
Hopefully our excellent secondary will leave many a QB muttering, "Thought he was wide open."
Reminds me of the first quarter of the Gator Bowl. Mississippi State's offense seemed to have bought in to the idea that they were going to be a lot faster than our secondary and their quarterback seemed stunned with our cornerbacks' closing speed.
Just a pleasant thought for the day.
That was a fun day for sure. Our secondary played excellent, and our pass rush broke through too.
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