Can we put these two things to bed, please?

[Southport Cat]

1) “We’re not in yet.” 10 quad 1+2 wins, 12 league wins, and a top five player in the country. It is only a message board panic party and not a fun one. We’ve played our last seven down two starters and gone 4-3 with two road wins in the league (this equals Wiscy’s total B10 road wins and is one less than Sparty who counts @Michigan as one). All questions have been answered, including can we compete with a depleted roster. The only thing the injuries cost us is a chance at a top five seed because this resume stacks against teams 15-40 very favorably. The Chicago State loss was a clear outlier that skews our metrics disproportionately and the prognosticators and committee have reacted accordingly. Only on this board is “we’re in trouble” a thing.

2) “We weren’t a deep team to begin with.” Huh? Few teams use more than 8 in a rotation. We are playing guys 9-11 regularly now and they are showing they belong, including the no name walk on. Are they elite 30 minute a game guys? No. But they’re not getting their doors blown off in a physical major conference. Buie, Barn, Lang, and Martinelli are starters or at least heavy rotation guys on every team in the country. Period. Zero exceptions. This isn’t Jitim or Vedran and a crew of misfits against the world We have talent and lots of it and our depth guys are playing with toughness and poise when the chips are on the table.

As a fan this two season stretch has been pure joy and the hand-wringing, while understandable, feels false. Breathe deep and soak up this season.

 

[NUCat320]

Great, great post. And a great chance to celebrate Boo on Saturday night.

 

[NUAlum2010]

1) “We’re not in yet.” 10 quad 1+2 wins, 12 league wins, and a top five player in the country. It is only a message board panic party and not a fun one. We’ve played our last seven down two starters and gone 4-3 with two road wins in the league (this equals Wiscy’s total B10 road wins and is one less than Sparty who counts @Michigan as one). All questions have been answered, including can we compete with a depleted roster. The only thing the injuries cost us is a chance at a top five seed because this resume stacks against teams 15-40 very favorably. The Chicago State loss was a clear outlier that skews our metrics disproportionately and the prognosticators and committee have reacted accordingly. Only on this board is “we’re in trouble” a thing.

2) “We weren’t a deep team to begin with.” Huh? Few teams use more than 8 in a rotation. We are playing guys 9-11 regularly now and they are showing they belong, including the no name walk on. Are they elite 30 minute a game guys? No. But they’re not getting their doors blown off in a physical major conference. Buie, Barn, Lang, and Martinelli are starters or at least heavy rotation guys on every team in the country. Period. Zero exceptions. This isn’t Jitim or Vedran and a crew of misfits against the world We have talent and lots of it and our depth guys are playing with toughness and poise when the chips are on the table.

As a fan this two season stretch has been pure joy and the hand-wringing, while understandable, feels false. Breathe deep and soak up this season.

Objectively, we weren’t a deep team. That’s not really debatable. Buie, Berry, Langborg and Barnhizer were all playing insane minutes even before the injuries.

Buie, Berry and Barnhizer were 3 of the top 4 in the conference in minutes before Berry went down. 3 of the top 4… on the same team. That’s the epitome of not deep.

The only reason more guys are playing now is because nobody is left to play.

 

[Max_Power]

No. 1 is not true.

Here's the scenario where NU is out.

Iowa beats Illinois.
NU loses.
Wisconsin beats either Rutgers or Purdue.
MSU wins at Indiana.
Nebraska beats Michigan.

In this scenario, NU is pushed to seventh place in the Big10 and is out.

And not all of these need to happen. I still think NU is out if they finish 6th based on NET.

Now, here is the rub on this. Indiana can beat MSU. Wisconsin could very well lose both. An angry Illinois should handle Iowa.

Still, the best scenario for NU is to get to 12 - which now looks like 4th or 5th bc IDK the tiebreak scenario with Nebraska.

 

[GatoLouco]

1) “We’re not in yet.” 10 quad 1+2 wins, 12 league wins, and a top five player in the country. It is only a message board panic party and not a fun one. We’ve played our last seven down two starters and gone 4-3 with two road wins in the league (this equals Wiscy’s total B10 road wins and is one less than Sparty who counts @Michigan as one). All questions have been answered, including can we compete with a depleted roster. The only thing the injuries cost us is a chance at a top five seed because this resume stacks against teams 15-40 very favorably. The Chicago State loss was a clear outlier that skews our metrics disproportionately and the prognosticators and committee have reacted accordingly. Only on this board is “we’re in trouble” a thing.

2) “We weren’t a deep team to begin with.” Huh? Few teams use more than 8 in a rotation. We are playing guys 9-11 regularly now and they are showing they belong, including the no name walk on. Are they elite 30 minute a game guys? No. But they’re not getting their doors blown off in a physical major conference. Buie, Barn, Lang, and Martinelli are starters or at least heavy rotation guys on every team in the country. Period. Zero exceptions. This isn’t Jitim or Vedran and a crew of misfits against the world We have talent and lots of it and our depth guys are playing with toughness and poise when the chips are on the table.

As a fan this two season stretch has been pure joy and the hand-wringing, while understandable, feels false. Breathe deep and soak up this season.

1) Agreed that logically it's what you said. But we lose out and look bad doing it and you wonder if recency bias is a thing

2) I agree. Every single program can point to years that were derailed by injuries. It's utopia to expect to have depth enough to survive 2/3 injuries. No one does. What one can have is unexpected guys stepping up.

 

[EvanstonCat]

1) “We’re not in yet.” 10 quad 1+2 wins, 12 league wins, and a top five player in the country. It is only a message board panic party and not a fun one. We’ve played our last seven down two starters and gone 4-3 with two road wins in the league (this equals Wiscy’s total B10 road wins and is one less than Sparty who counts @Michigan as one). All questions have been answered, including can we compete with a depleted roster. The only thing the injuries cost us is a chance at a top five seed because this resume stacks against teams 15-40 very favorably. The Chicago State loss was a clear outlier that skews our metrics disproportionately and the prognosticators and committee have reacted accordingly. Only on this board is “we’re in trouble” a thing.

2) “We weren’t a deep team to begin with.” Huh? Few teams use more than 8 in a rotation. We are playing guys 9-11 regularly now and they are showing they belong, including the no name walk on. Are they elite 30 minute a game guys? No. But they’re not getting their doors blown off in a physical major conference. Buie, Barn, Lang, and Martinelli are starters or at least heavy rotation guys on every team in the country. Period. Zero exceptions. This isn’t Jitim or Vedran and a crew of misfits against the world We have talent and lots of it and our depth guys are playing with toughness and poise when the chips are on the table.

As a fan this two season stretch has been pure joy and the hand-wringing, while understandable, feels false. Breathe deep and soak up this season.

Wishful thinking. There is not a single credible source outside of deluded board posters that think we are a lock and don’t have work to do. The committee totally looks at recent trends. Lose 4 straight and not only is our NET poor, but we are reeling and stumbling our way off the bubble.

You are high if you think we are a lock just yet.

 

[Southport Cat]

Objectively, we weren’t a deep team. That’s not really debatable. Buie, Berry, Langborg and Barnhizer were all playing insane minutes even before the injuries.

Buie, Berry and Barnhizer were 3 of the top 4 in the conference in minutes before Berry went down. 3 of the top 4… on the same team. That’s the epitome of not deep.

The only reason more guys are playing now is because nobody is left to play.

I disagree. I think CCC is a coach who loads up on the guys he trusts the most. Style choice more than necessity, and those guys have thrived so I cannot really argue it. Now he has no choice and the reserves are showing they deserve more minutes in future seasons.

 

[EvanstonCat]

I disagree. I think CCC is a coach who loads up on the guys he trusts the most. Style choice more than necessity, and those guys have thrived so I cannot really argue it. Now he has no choice and the reserves are showing they deserve more minutes in future seasons.

Martinelli and Smith are the only two reserves showing anything. Hunger is out of his depth and showing how much we badly miss Nicholson. Preston basically played his way onto the bench. Mullins and Clayton aren’t helping. The injuries are devastating. And no, we aren’t deep at all.

 

[Ilvolino]

Martinelli and Smith are the only two reserves showing anything. Hunger is out of his depth and showing how much we badly miss Nicholson. Preston basically played his way onto the bench. Mullins and Clayton aren’t helping. The injuries are devastating. And no, we aren’t deep at all.

Regardless of every difference of opinion we will win Saturday and put all concerns to oblivion

 

[NUThump]

Wishful thinking. There is not a single credible source outside of deluded board posters that think we are a lock and don’t have work to do.

The announcers on last night's telecast called us a "lock for the NCAAs".

 

[Southport Cat]

Wishful thinking. There is not a single credible source outside of deluded board posters that think we are a lock and don’t have work to do. The committee totally looks at recent trends. Lose 4 straight and not only is our NET poor, but we are reeling and stumbling our way off the bubble.

You are high if you think we are a lock just yet.

You seem to emphasize the negative “soft factors” - injuries, recency bias, “momentum” - but ignore the positive ones: top five player who is an elite scorer and has played himself from disappointment to NBA prospect, major market team, still a resonant underdog story, and team finding away to play above .500 in league with a devastating rash of injuries.

All you are hanging your hat on is four losses in a row. Two of them haven’t even happened yet.

The objective totality of the resume is a team seeded 6-11 easily based on the overall strength of the field.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

I disagree. I think CCC is a coach who loads up on the guys he trusts the most. Style choice more than necessity, and those guys have thrived so I cannot really argue it. Now he has no choice and the reserves are showing they deserve more minutes in future seasons.

Most teams play 8-9 players. Would you rather have more minutes from Berry, Langborg, Barnhizer, and Martinelli or minutes from Smith and Mullins? While Smith has showed some things there’s still a noticeable drop off from those players to Smith and Mullins. Who are you limiting the time they can impact the game to get those guys more run?

 

[SmellyCat]

I think two things can be true (not that either of them are necessarily):

1) NU is not a lock yet
2) NU can lose out and still become a lock

How can both things be true? Because there is a lot that can happen that is beyond NU's control. For example, maybe some of those other teams NU is worried about (just in the Big Ten: Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, etc.) could also fall on their faces. NU could appear to be on shaky ground with a four-game losing streak (and again: half of those losses haven't even happened yet), but many of the teams in a position to pass them are likely to lose again too. Sure, there could be some crazy bid thief like Ohio State winning the BTT or something, but otherwise, assume so many teams will lose in their conference tourneys that they just don't have enough time to push NU out.

I'm worried about NU because Nicholson is out, Langborg is hurting, and the other players are on fumes, but I'm not worried about 10+ teams currently behind NU all somehow winning enough games that they fall from their perch.

Might they have to prove themselves in Dayton? Perhaps, but I would bet they're still a 10-seed even if they lose their next two games.

Last but not least, I don't think they're going to lose their next two games.

 

[Southport Cat]

Martinelli and Smith are the only two reserves showing anything. Hunger is out of his depth and showing how much we badly miss Nicholson. Preston basically played his way onto the bench. Mullins and Clayton aren’t helping. The injuries are devastating. And no, we aren’t deep at all.

I don’t expect starter-level contributions from all scholarship players. Mullins has shown flashes and Clayton’s usage pattern doesn’t give him a chance to get in rhythm offensively, but he can clearly defend. Hunger is a freshman who shows nice aggression and touch around the rim. He needs to get stronger and more explosive. I am confident he can and will. Of course we miss our seven foot starter… who looked “out of his depth” for two years here and now in your mind his injury has sealed our NIT fate.

 

[Southport Cat]

Most teams play 8-9 players. Would you rather have more minutes from Berry, Langborg, Barnhizer, and Martinelli or minutes from Smith and Mullins? While Smith has showed some things there’s still a noticeable drop off from those players to Smith and Mullins. Who are you limiting the time they can impact the game to get those guys more run?

I’d reduce the starters minutes from 36+ to 33+ in the hopes that I got extra benefit in shorter time with fatigue less of an issue. Clearly CCC disagrees. He is a coach by trade, I am an a**hole watching games in my pajamas so obviously take my input as such.

 

[SmellyCat]

Clayton, Hunger, Mullins, and Preston may not be what we want them to be, but if you can't be with the ones you love, love the ones you're with. They can get in the game and sometimes do positive things, and they're better than if you or I were in the game, so I'll take it.

 

[phatcat]

12 league wins

We have 11 league wins. I see us needing another win. Two more losses would be bad

 

[GatoLouco]

Martinelli and Smith are the only two reserves showing anything. Hunger is out of his depth and showing how much we badly miss Nicholson. Preston basically played his way onto the bench. Mullins and Clayton aren’t helping. The injuries are devastating. And no, we aren’t deep at all.

I don't think there's a soul in this board saying we are deep. Right now.

 

[ballerog711]

NU is not deep right now because they struggled in the non conference game. That limited the time and experience the fab four could get

I thinkmthey can win Saturday and a game this year in the Big10 tournament.

I think with seeing the young guys play, they what they have to work on in the spring/summer and con come back strong along with the returning upperclassmen.

It a mess right now, but might be a blessing in disguise.

Love some of the optimism

 

[phatcat]

and a game this year in the Big10 tournament.

Have you SEEN us play in the BTT? Our record is hilarious, even in years we're good (i.e last year). To me, Sat is a must win because I have zero hope in the BTT

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Cats have the B1G record for most losses in the B1G Tournament. Record is 10-26.

Only 2 other teams have maxed out losses - Indiana and Penn State. But they only have 25 losses because in 2020 the Cats got eliminated in the first game and then they called the whole damn thing off.

Additional CCC history: CCC is 4-10 in the BTT. His teams have won games in 3 different BTTs. The only time there has been two wins was in 2017.

 

[UpsetAlert]

No. 1 is not true.

Here's the scenario where NU is out.

Iowa beats Illinois.
NU loses.
Wisconsin beats either Rutgers or Purdue.
MSU wins at Indiana.
Nebraska beats Michigan.

In this scenario, NU is pushed to seventh place in the Big10 and is out.

And not all of these need to happen. I still think NU is out if they finish 6th based on NET.

Now, here is the rub on this. Indiana can beat MSU. Wisconsin could very well lose both. An angry Illinois should handle Iowa.

Still, the best scenario for NU is to get to 12 - which now looks like 4th or 5th bc IDK the tiebreak scenario with Nebraska.

Chances that 5-game parlay hits? Pretty low. Also, conference standing isn’t a criteria for NCAA selection.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

I agree 100% on the message board panic. The broadcast last night explained it best: both of these two teams are in, but if either loses out they have to at least sweat it a little bit on bid night instead of throwing a party to see what their seed is.

On depth, I don’t agree. I think we were slightly deeper team that we knew earlier this year and Martinelli could and should have been playing more than 20 minutes a game to allow rest for the other wings. But smith is only just now developing into a usable part time player and our other bigs and remaining guards continue to be not very good at all.

 

[NUCat320]

Depth is being able to replace an injured guy. Smith is depth because he has been good enough to play when called upon. Clayton is not depth because, even tho he was getting some run, he’s not good enough to contribute consistently.

It’s tough to have an adequate backup for a guy with Nicholson’s attributes, unfortunately. He’s pretty irreplaceable.

 

[EvanstonCat]

I think two things can be true (not that either of them are necessarily):

1) NU is not a lock yet
2) NU can lose out and still become a lock

How can both things be true? Because there is a lot that can happen that is beyond NU's control. For example, maybe some of those other teams NU is worried about (just in the Big Ten: Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, etc.) could also fall on their faces. NU could appear to be on shaky ground with a four-game losing streak (and again: half of those losses haven't even happened yet), but many of the teams in a position to pass them are likely to lose again too. Sure, there could be some crazy bid thief like Ohio State winning the BTT or something, but otherwise, assume so many teams will lose in their conference tourneys that they just don't have enough time to push NU out.

I'm worried about NU because Nicholson is out, Langborg is hurting, and the other players are on fumes, but I'm not worried about 10+ teams currently behind NU all somehow winning enough games that they fall from their perch.

Might they have to prove themselves in Dayton? Perhaps, but I would bet they're still a 10-seed even if they lose their next two games.

Last but not least, I don't think they're going to lose their next two games.

That’s fair. I suppose I’m too absolute that we are out if we lose out. But there is no way in hell that we are an absolute lock at this point either. Far from it.

 

[EvanstonCat]

I don’t expect starter-level contributions from all scholarship players. Mullins has shown flashes and Clayton’s usage pattern doesn’t give him a chance to get in rhythm offensively, but he can clearly defend. Hunger is a freshman who shows nice aggression and touch around the rim. He needs to get stronger and more explosive. I am confident he can and will. Of course we miss our seven foot starter… who looked “out of his depth” for two years here and now in your mind his injury has sealed our NIT fate.

I don’t disallow the hope or expectation that these players will become contributors or even more eventually. I don’t think they are very helpful right now. We are paper thin after having decimated by injury.

 

[EvanstonCat]

You seem to emphasize the negative “soft factors” - injuries, recency bias, “momentum” - but ignore the positive ones: top five player who is an elite scorer and has played himself from disappointment to NBA prospect, major market team, still a resonant underdog story, and team finding away to play above .500 in league with a devastating rash of injuries.

All you are hanging your hat on is four losses in a row. Two of them haven’t even happened yet.

The objective totality of the resume is a team seeded 6-11 easily based on the overall strength of the field.

All of the factors you say I mention are factors that the committee are known to consider. Injuries (like FSU), recent performance, momentum. They are on the record of saying that while they are looking at the work as a whole but an emphasis on recent play and the quality of the team at the time of selection. None of the factors that you mention are considerations. The selection committee doesn’t give a shit about star players, major markets, underdog status (if anything the blue bloods probably get some benefit) or excuses like injuries (injuries count against you like they did for FSU in the CFP selection). It’s why teams sometimes play themselves into the tourney when they go on a run in the conference tourney despite a crap record. And why teams that sputter and fizzle out with weak finishes get left out despite 20+ wins. It’s also why MSU consistently has been seen as above us in pecking order despite a worse record and struggles earlier in the season and even before they beat us just now.

I’m not hanging anything on 2 losses that haven’t happened yet. I still hope and even expect we will win at least one. But I’m pointing out that absolutely we are setting ourselves for disappointment if we can’t. We are far from a lock.

 

[olshin]

All of the factors you say I mention are factors that the committee are known to consider. Injuries (like FSU), recent performance, momentum. They are on the record of saying that while they are looking at the work as a whole but an emphasis on recent play and the quality of the team at the time of selection. None of the factors that you mention are considerations. The selection committee doesn’t give a shit about star players, major markets, underdog status (if anything the blue bloods probably get some benefit) or excuses like injuries (injuries count against you like they did for FSU in the CFP selection). It’s why teams sometimes play themselves into the tourney when they go on a run in the conference tourney despite a crap record. And why teams that sputter and fizzle out with weak finishes get left out despite 20+ wins. It’s also why MSU consistently has been seen as above us in pecking order despite a worse record and struggles earlier in the season and even before they beat us just now.

I’m not hanging anything on 2 losses that haven’t happened yet. I still hope and even expect we will win at least one. But I’m pointing out that absolutely we are setting ourselves for disappointment if we can’t. We are far from a lock.

Actually, we're pretty close to a lock ... but point taken.
I think if we lose the next 2 ... we'd be very much on the bubble. Let's say they're both in OT. Or let's say we get blown out. Those things matter too. We'd be very much a bubble team at that point, and while I think we'd be OK ... there are so many other factors that there's no way to know.