Cats announce 2021-22 schedule
- Thread starter lou v
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I know the non-conference slate is always filled with cupcakes (which we sometimes choke on), but this year's home games are going to give CC diabetes. Illinois-Springfield isn't even D1! According to T-Rank (similar to KenPom, but free) projections for this season, every team is worse than 169 except Depaul and they're only 95th. Even the power conference teams we're playing on the road/neutral site aren't supposed to be very good (Providence would be by far our best opponent at 48th and the only non-conference opponent projected to be higher than us at 50th). What are we even doing here?
Yeah, our most exciting nonconference home game is DePaul. That's not very exciting. Granted, that Legends Classic will give us some cracks at quality opponents on a neutral floor, but that doesn't entice me to buy a season ticket.
My guess: Rack up 9-10 wins before New Year’s Day, then steal enough conference games for a .500 overall record and signs of “progress.” (Which is exactly what Torvik is projecting, as it turns out — a 15-13 record.)
everybody knows that the best way to get your team ready for the Big Ten is to play high school competition.
It is going to hurt us when we have a winning record in the Big Ten and don't get into the NCAA tournament...
It is going to hurt us when we have a winning record in the Big Ten and don't get into the NCAA tournament...
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While I know if that were to happen, I will be upset in that moment... sitting here today in September, I can't help but think that this would be such a nice problem to have!
So we're going to be unprepared for the conference season, but still have a winning record, but still not get into the tournament? That's quite the feat. When was the last time a team with a winning record in the B1G didn't make the tournament?
Edit: I'll answer my own question. I believe we're looking at the 2017-2018 Nebraska Cornhuskers. I would recommend the real NU not lose games in non-con.
Northwestern has had a winning conference record, I believe, once in my entire life and that was the season they made the NCAAs.
The strength of schedule within the conference is sufficient that a winning record within the conference would feature several quality wins to bolster the résumé. I would hope such a team would be able to take at least one game during the Legends Classic, so we would have something to point to in the non-con.
Worst case for such a team would almost certainly be NIT, probably as a top seed (hosting games until the semis).
They were who we thought they were.
The schedule is what we thought it would be:
-Couple of somewhat interesting games in neutral court
-DePaul
-One decent ACC opponent
-Lots of Merrimack potentials/CC is a genius with a team playing fast scoring 100+ pts.
The schedule is what we thought it would be:
-Couple of somewhat interesting games in neutral court
-DePaul
-One decent ACC opponent
-Lots of Merrimack potentials/CC is a genius with a team playing fast scoring 100+ pts.
I THINK he meant, have a winning record overall, as a B1G team, and not make the tourney, i.e, 10-0 non-con, 5-13 in the B1G, or a reasonable facsimile thereof.
I cannot imagine us having a winning record in conference play, but unless we pulled a Football 2018 and lost a bunch of non-cons, they would assuredly make the tourney.
The year Nebraska didnt make it with a winning record was an abnormally weak year for the league and the Huskers didn't beat any of the top teams in the conference.
We actually have a ton of experience coming back. We won 6 Bigten games in a year that the big was stacked.
With experience and depth id be disappointed if we didnt win 8 bigten games. I think its going to be a fun competitive year.
With experience and depth id be disappointed if we didnt win 8 bigten games. I think its going to be a fun competitive year.
It's all about the quality wins. The Selection Committee doesn't select teams using their own NET; they rank the teams they have beaten by NET, and they also use NET to tally any "bad" losses.
Nebraska did beat Michigan, but that's the only "quality" win on their schedule, whereas they had "bad" losses to St. John's and Illinois. The Mississippi St. game would have qualified as a "quality" win but it was an exhibition charity game, so it didn't count.
I think the Selection Committee gives too much weight to this. I think we got to see the NET bias very well with the Big Ten last season. Give Western Kentucky last season a schedule full of Big Ten teams and they would have won their share (like beating SEC champ Alabama on the road). Instead, they were relegated to the NIT while the 4th-place team from their conference (UNT) defeated Purdue in the opening round of the NCAAs.
What I meant by my comment was....
I think the Cats are going to have a winning record in the Big Ten this year.
I also think the weak non-conference schedule will hurt us when it comes to tournament selection time. As a general statement, scheduling cupcakes doesn't help you prepare for the real season, especially when you are trying to determine which groups of 5 are most effective.
I also believe we have enough talent to overcome that. As long as Coach Collins doesn't insist on playing Beran with Nance, we should do well. (The other lineup albatross - Young with Gaines - is no longer possible).
I think the Cats are going to have a winning record in the Big Ten this year.
I also think the weak non-conference schedule will hurt us when it comes to tournament selection time. As a general statement, scheduling cupcakes doesn't help you prepare for the real season, especially when you are trying to determine which groups of 5 are most effective.
I also believe we have enough talent to overcome that. As long as Coach Collins doesn't insist on playing Beran with Nance, we should do well. (The other lineup albatross - Young with Gaines - is no longer possible).
I have to assume this is the driver for a non-conference schedule like this. But that doesn't mean I have to like it.
Potential wins is one part of your schedule development. I also believe revenue must be a consideration, right? And what about generating interest in your program?
Obviously, those aren't strong concerns after years of schedules like this.
I'd love to hear a more educated discussion about filling out schedules. Sorry, you bozos need not apply.
I'd love to hear from someone on the inside of a program what drives a schedule like this? Is it purely a guess at a NET calculation? What are the financial considerations for paying a visiting team? How does that revenue compare to playing a home-and-home against a better team? Has the glut of TV money affected how the B10 schedules non-conference games? Do they really not care about attendance etc because so much money is coming in from BTN?
That's just off the top of my head when I see a schedule like this. It seems to have very little logic to me except to get wins. But then again that's what Merrimack and Radford were scheduled for. So if you lose games like that ...
I renewed my seats. The non-conference schedule is meh. I hope the MSU game is not the usual, shock game where we are shocked with the athleticism and intensity of playing a real team. My hope is that this team is very competitive,
I imagine decent non conference opponents see nothing to gain by scheduling a game in Evanston. I bet schedule making for NU is quite challenging.
This.
A major scheduling consideration has to be the availability/who wants to play you. I bet Kentucky does not want to play in Evanston.
Not unlike pretty much every P6 program, we don't go on the road to play lousy teams either. That's a potential upset that looks terrible on your resume.
Looking at schedules around the Big Ten, there aren't many home nonconference games against powerhouse teams. Neutral site and tourney games are where most of the big nonconference matchups are. That's where the BigTen/ACC Challenge and the Gavit Games are helpful. I agree with those who say scheduling is a big challenge at NU, especially considering the meagre attendance for non conference games in Evanston.
So, here's how this schedule looks per Bart Torvik's preseason rankings:
E. Illinois - #314, 8th in OVC, "local" opponent
High Point - #243, 6th in Big South, Tubby Smith is the coach, expected to have a veteran team
New Orleans - #280, 2nd in new smaller Southland conference, have sputtered in recent years
Fairleigh Dickinson - #313, 9th in NEC, Elyjah Williams' former team
Providence - #48, 5th in Big East, assigned to us in tournament
Virginia - #68, 8th in ACC or Georgia - #212, 14th in SEC, lord help us if it's Georgia
Wake Forest - #98, 13th in ACC, assigned to us for B1G/ACC challenge
NJIT - #258, 6th in America East
DePaul - #95, 10th in Big East, local opponent
Ill-Springfield - non-D1, laughable
Prairie View A&M - #169, 1st in SWAC, have dominated their conference past three seasons
and here's the 2020 schedule with preseason Kenpom projections vs end of year ranking:
Merrimack - #312 preseason, vs #227 at end
Providence - #21 vs #40, assigned Gavett games
Radford - #138 vs #186
Norfolk St - #291 vs #254
Bradley - #147 vs #107, assigned tournament
Pitt - #64 vs #111, assigned tournament
Boston College - #113 vs #179, assigned B1G/ACC challenge
SIU-E - #324 vs #337
DePaul - #76 vs #94
Hartford - #311 vs #243
It's an understatement to say it's disappointing to have roughly the same sort of schedule put in place for a team almost exclusively comprised of underclassmen vs. this year's roster construction. Instead of High Point, go get Georgia State, instead of New Orleans, go get Valparaiso, instead of NJIT, go get Dayton. I just can't imagine that you can't find a decent team in a mid-major conference like the A10, MAC, or MVC who would be willing to play us. Obviously there's nothing we can do about the tournament and B1G/ACC challenge scheduling, but there has to be a happy medium in between dregs of power-6 and middling small-conference teams.
E. Illinois - #314, 8th in OVC, "local" opponent
High Point - #243, 6th in Big South, Tubby Smith is the coach, expected to have a veteran team
New Orleans - #280, 2nd in new smaller Southland conference, have sputtered in recent years
Fairleigh Dickinson - #313, 9th in NEC, Elyjah Williams' former team
Providence - #48, 5th in Big East, assigned to us in tournament
Virginia - #68, 8th in ACC or Georgia - #212, 14th in SEC, lord help us if it's Georgia
Wake Forest - #98, 13th in ACC, assigned to us for B1G/ACC challenge
NJIT - #258, 6th in America East
DePaul - #95, 10th in Big East, local opponent
Ill-Springfield - non-D1, laughable
Prairie View A&M - #169, 1st in SWAC, have dominated their conference past three seasons
and here's the 2020 schedule with preseason Kenpom projections vs end of year ranking:
Merrimack - #312 preseason, vs #227 at end
Providence - #21 vs #40, assigned Gavett games
Radford - #138 vs #186
Norfolk St - #291 vs #254
Bradley - #147 vs #107, assigned tournament
Pitt - #64 vs #111, assigned tournament
Boston College - #113 vs #179, assigned B1G/ACC challenge
SIU-E - #324 vs #337
DePaul - #76 vs #94
Hartford - #311 vs #243
It's an understatement to say it's disappointing to have roughly the same sort of schedule put in place for a team almost exclusively comprised of underclassmen vs. this year's roster construction. Instead of High Point, go get Georgia State, instead of New Orleans, go get Valparaiso, instead of NJIT, go get Dayton. I just can't imagine that you can't find a decent team in a mid-major conference like the A10, MAC, or MVC who would be willing to play us. Obviously there's nothing we can do about the tournament and B1G/ACC challenge scheduling, but there has to be a happy medium in between dregs of power-6 and middling small-conference teams.
100% this. The schedule strikes me as the sort of thing a team puts together when it knows it has no realistic shot at the postseason and just wants to pad the win total for end-of-season evaluations.
Georgia does offer the ability to beat Tom Crean, which is pretty fun.
His seat has to be getting hot - he looked like he was making progress and then 9 players transferred out after last season. 9!!
You really think Kentucky would care about playing in Evanston? I get the whole there is no upside if they win and tons of downside if they lose, but I can't imagine Kentucky would ever think it's possible to lose to Northwestern. I think a better example is CC not wanting to schedule Loyola, but playing DePaul. Or how Notre Dame ducks us in football.
I agree about scheduling Loyola and maybe UIC rather than a couple of those teams on there, but both might want a home and home, and I don't know if the Cats want to do that. That home and home thing is the reason there are a LOT of cupcakes on non conference schedules around the country.
Not trying to turn this into a thread about whether to fire Collins, but I get why CC wouldn't want to schedule Loyola the last few years. Assuming we lost, the calls for him to be replaced by Porter Moser would be deafening; no reason to help out your replacement!
I've always wished that the Chicago-area and Illinois schools embraced local competition like the Philly schools (Drexel, Temple, Penn, St. Joe's etc.) They all play each other even though some of them are up/down and in different conferences.
A holiday tournament with some combination of Loyola, DePaul, NU, UIC, Illinois, Bradley, SIU etc. would be a nice tradition.
Yes. I do, because they scheduled that type of games last year, and it blew up in their face, big time. Calipari even went as far as to apologize to his players for the schedule. Kentucky often needs time to gain traction as they tend to be so young.
Having said that, it was the first name that came to mind. Did not think it through. Point is there is a reason P6 programs often avoid away games altogether.
I bet looking back on it, the players think it was cool that they got to play against Trae Young. My (uninformed) speculation is that the players would prefer to play against P5 (or local) teams instead of Merrimack and NJIT. I understand why we schedule those teams, but it doesn't help drive interest in the program or (arguably) prepare for the conference schedule.
Fair points. But how about some respectable Mid-Major programs instead of NJIT, FDU and High Point. I would rather even play some Ivy league team (like we used to) because at least there is a recruiting angle (eg - Okpara going to Harvard). We also had a few years where we played Stanford and I was in favor of that series for the same reason. This just feels uninspiring.
This is all anybody is asking.
I've desperately tried not to repeat the same speech I've said for years. But if you can't beat some of the local teams and teams in the range of 150-225 somewhat consistently, you're not a good team and probably nowhere in the ballpark of a tournament team anyhow.
Spot on. And given the history of NU basketball, you gotta give fans (especially those who pay to see the games) something to be excited about and a reason to make the trek to Evanston. Are there really fans who would rather see a guaranteed victory over High Point instead of us playing Loyola or Butler? I understand the need for tune up games, but this seems a bit much for a team with 4 returning starters.
I wonder how much the new AD was involved in the schedule making? Perhaps this is a situation where the transition period hurt us? Not sure how far these games are scheduled in advance.
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I agree. I, too, find it uninspiring. Lots of interesting ideas in this thread. It sounds to me there would be a considerable amount of respectable mid majors that could be interested in coming to Evanston. After all, so often, they know the only way they get a tourney birth is if they win their tournament. No worries about "bad losses".
I love seeing typically good mid-major programs on the NU schedule. Dayton, Butler, perhaps others over the years. That’s one of those cases where it stands to help NU’s resume, where it doesn’t hurt like a Merrimack loss hurts, and where the mid-majors get a rare chance to knock off a P6 opponent, if a less-prestigious one.
Sports are fun.
I can appreciate why NU would attempt to schedule only the lowest of the low. Just win ‘em.
Sports are fun.
I can appreciate why NU would attempt to schedule only the lowest of the low. Just win ‘em.
Great call on Dayton. I loved that game and watching Archie Miller's wife lose her mind about losing to lowly Northwestern. It seems like we used to have much more of those types of games (including the annual Ivy league team). I wonder why the change in philosophy. Especially after the Merrimack debacle showing there really is no upside to those games.
