Well, they won @Baylor and took OU to OT in a loss at WRA......
Cats announce 2021-22 schedule
- Thread starter lou v
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I agree with the point. But I think the new incarnation of the Big East has earned its stripes as a power conference.
The year NU went to the Dance, they played Houston Baptist, IUPUI, Chicago State (nearly lost that one), New Orleans, E. Washington and Bryant at home. They played at Butler in the Gavit games, Wake in the ACC Challenge and DAYTON on a neutral floor (United Center) and at DePaul, so NO, this is not a radical change in scheduling philosophy. And that was when you played only 18 Big Ten games, not 20. Look around, most Big10 teams are not playing more than one home and home preseason game (ours is DePaul)
That Butler team was ranked and finished the year with 25 wins and went to the tourney. That Dayton team finished with 24 wins and went to the tourney. The tourney team finished #43 in terms of Strength of Schedule. I def. could be wrong, but I would be SHOCKED if this team finished in the top 50 in terms of SOS.
If the goal is to get to the post-season then that's a problem. If the goal is to look to the future and simply gain "winning" experience for Roper, Simmons, Barnhizer, Berry then I guess it makes sense, even if it's a blah experience for fans.
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Now that the conference season is 20 games, that alone will make or break NU's tournament chances, assuming the Cats OOC goes according to chalk. Win 10 or more conference games and they're in. Lose 12 or more and they're out. Seems pretty straight forward to me.
I think the BIG got exposed as a conference last year in the tourney, not to mention the overall championship drought. Most pre-season rankings are down on the BIG as a conference power. My guess is that 10-10 will be left out. If the non-con really goes "chalk" then we will beat Providence and lose to Virginia. If the goal is to get to the tourney this year (big if) then I just don't see how this schedule helps us. If the goal is to "rebuild" and gain experience then I get it even if I don't like it.
This was my thought also. I assume the B10 NET rating somehow take a hit after that performance in the tournament last year.
On the flip side, the PAC-12 should improve after their performance. It will be interesting to see the evolution of both conference rankings this year.
We also played Texas and Notre Dame in Brooklyn. Coincidentally, Illinois-Springfield was the exhibition game that season.
The point I was making is that the scheduling wasn't that different in 2017-18 except we don't get a Gavit game this time and we don't have a neutral site game like Dayton after the United Center doubleheader with Illinois was a flop attendance-wise. Purdue and Indiana have a doubleheader in Indy that helps their strength of schedule but neither has any marquee nonconference games at home. Purdue does have one other neutral site game with NC State beside their tourney and the Indy game. Big 10 teams generally don't do many, if any, home-and-homes nonconference, especially since the league schedule went to 20 games. Maybe we could offer Loyola and UIC a 2-for-1. I'd love to see better noncon games as as season ticket holder but I recognize the problems getting there.
So I did a a rough schedule analysis by conference over the last 5 non-Covid seasons to see how the rest of the teams in the B1G set up their schedules. Removing B1G/ACC challenge and Gavitt games against Big East, the conference averages roughly 3 games per year against other Power-6 plus AAC conferences, 1 game per year against top mid-major conferences (MWC, A10, MVC, WCC), and around 6-7 games per year against smaller low-major regional conferences.
Now, many of those matchups against other Power-6 plus AAC are due to smaller tournaments like the ones we're playing in this year against Providence and UVa/Georgia. So we're on schedule with that this year, having two games against that level in the tournament plus DePaul.
Next, 1 game against a top mid-major conference. We don't have that this year, and of the 6 we played in the 5 year timeline, Dayton was part of the doubleheader with UofI, Fresno State, LaSalle (twice) and Bradley were assigned tournament games. Only Valpo was scheduled at home. This is a big miss for us with our team this year. You can't get an Illinois State or a Southern Illinois to schedule us?
So of the 6-7 games per year against the remaining 21 conferences, here is the other opportunity where we are falling short. Do you know how many games we've played against the MAC or Horizon leagues in the past 5 years? Zero. The two closest regional leagues that have had some decent teams over the years and won't demand home-and-home and we won't bring anyone in. In fact, we haven't played a single game against the top-5 single-bid conferences in this time span (MAC, Sun Belt, Colonial, C-USA and SoCon).
Instead, we've played the 3rd-most games of any conference team against the bottom tier of conferences (Southland, NEC, SWAC and MEAC). We're playing New Orleans this year for the 4th time since 2016. We've played 7 games against the NEC and America East with two more coming this year. It just feels like we could be doing a lot more than we are and we're doing a disservice to this team in preparing them for the conference season.
Now, many of those matchups against other Power-6 plus AAC are due to smaller tournaments like the ones we're playing in this year against Providence and UVa/Georgia. So we're on schedule with that this year, having two games against that level in the tournament plus DePaul.
Next, 1 game against a top mid-major conference. We don't have that this year, and of the 6 we played in the 5 year timeline, Dayton was part of the doubleheader with UofI, Fresno State, LaSalle (twice) and Bradley were assigned tournament games. Only Valpo was scheduled at home. This is a big miss for us with our team this year. You can't get an Illinois State or a Southern Illinois to schedule us?
So of the 6-7 games per year against the remaining 21 conferences, here is the other opportunity where we are falling short. Do you know how many games we've played against the MAC or Horizon leagues in the past 5 years? Zero. The two closest regional leagues that have had some decent teams over the years and won't demand home-and-home and we won't bring anyone in. In fact, we haven't played a single game against the top-5 single-bid conferences in this time span (MAC, Sun Belt, Colonial, C-USA and SoCon).
Instead, we've played the 3rd-most games of any conference team against the bottom tier of conferences (Southland, NEC, SWAC and MEAC). We're playing New Orleans this year for the 4th time since 2016. We've played 7 games against the NEC and America East with two more coming this year. It just feels like we could be doing a lot more than we are and we're doing a disservice to this team in preparing them for the conference season.
Thanks for this! Well done and I appreciate you putting facts to my vague feelings of this feels ofd. The only context I would add is that we often play Chicago State because Northwestern is a socially responsible corporate citizen (and I support that).
It should be pointed out that godawful non-conference schedules aren't nearly as painful as they were in the past because the NCAA/NIT now use the NET rankings instead of RPI. Back when they used RPI, playing a terrible schedule actually damaged your postseason resume, even if you won every single game. At least now it shouldn't cause harm, even if it doesn't help.
The 2016 team is a good example of this. Despite winning 20 games, their schedule was so awful that they didn't even come close to making the NIT, never mind the NCAAs. Under the current system, that team would likely have made the NIT.
The 2016 team is a good example of this. Despite winning 20 games, their schedule was so awful that they didn't even come close to making the NIT, never mind the NCAAs. Under the current system, that team would likely have made the NIT.
Its an interesting question... Simmons is our highest rated (?) recruit ever, so I want to believe he will contribute right away, even though on paper he's a pretty skinny 6'6" wing. I have no inside scoop about how the new guys are looking, but I am curious if anybody else does. To me, Ty Berry, Chase Audige and Boo Buie just aren't going to step aside for Julian Roper, but I could see him getting some minutes, making a contribution. Even Barnhizer could contribute, if Collins thinks he needs a guy that size to supplement Young & Nance with 2 guards...
I am hoping that is our approach to the season - ride the known commodities (Nance and Young), using Beran as Nance's backup, using Nicholson as Young's backup. Let the other guys sort themselves out and (please) stop the musical chairs and the "Nance or Young, but not together" craziness of last year.
I see a lot of talent on the roster and a lot of upside. I expect us to be at least a 500 team in the conference. I expect Ty Berry, Matt Nicholson and, to some degree, Chase Audige to step up and play consistent, meaningful, successful minutes.
Young, Nance, Simmons, Audige, Buie... thats where I'd start.
If Simmons isn't ready, try Elyjah Williams at the 3. Or Barnhizer. If that isn't working, try Nance, and Young with 3 guards... or Young Nance Beran and 2 guards... but focus on Nance and Young.
If Buie and Audige can't work together, then get Ty Berry in there and make the backcourt productive.
It is the coach's job to get something close to full production out of a talented roster. We are more talented than we were last year, with logical improvement from a few returning players.
Too bad our non-conference schedule is so lame.
I think Simmons will get the most time of the 3 freshmen, but I don't think any of the 3 will start over returners. I like your Nance and Young with 3 guards personally.
Last year a .500 conference record was a tie for 6th place. If it is similar this year, how do you see the standings?
