COMMON OPPONENTS render UNANIMOUS verdict!!

[FeliSilvestris]

Vandy and NU had three common opponents, a small sample in absolute terms, but relatively large, considering that these teams play in conferences that are based in different regions of the country. The 3 teams are Butler, Dayton and Minnesota.

All 3 made the NCAAT seeded 4, 7 and 5. All 6 games were relatively close, which means all involved teams tried to use and keep their best players on the court as much as possible, running the O and D strategies that gave them the best chance to defeat a tough opponent.

In other words, these games do provide very useful information to compare Vandy against NU.

And they render an unanimous decision!

The clearest and loudest voice is that of 7-seeded Dayton, which lost to NU 67–64 but beat Vandy 68-63 just a few DAYS later. Dayton says NU is EIGHT pts better than Vandy.

Both Butler and Minny beat both Vandy and NU. But the margins of victory were different.

Butler beat NU 70-68, and defeated Vandy a week later by 10, 76-66. Butler says NU is EIGHT pts better. (What did Dayton say, again?)

Minny however rendered a more ambiguous verdict. It beat Vandy 56-52 in early December, and beat the cats a months later 70-66, yielding an identical 4-pts differential (although far more points were scored in the NU game).

SO, there is an unanimous decision: ALL THREE COMMON OPPONENTS say that Vandy is NOT better than NU. And two say NU is EIGHT pts better.

On average, they say NU is 5.33 pts better.

There you have it!

 

[FeliSilvestris]

OK, to be fair, you'd have to consider home field advantage, and most importantly, whether any of the involved teams lost the services of a key player in such a way that NU or Vandy gained an advantage. I haven't checked that.

 

[hdhntr1]

Vandy and NU had three common opponents, a small sample in absolute terms, but relatively large, considering that these teams play in conferences that are based in different regions of the country. The 3 teams are Butler, Dayton and Minnesota.

All 3 made the NCAAT seeded 4, 7 and 5. All 6 games were relatively close, which means all involved teams tried to use and keep their best players on the court as much as possible, running the O and D strategies that gave them the best chance to defeat a tough opponent.

In other words, these games do provide very useful information to compare Vandy against NU.

And they render an unanimous decision!

The clearest and loudest voice is that of 7-seeded Dayton, which lost to NU 67–64 but beat Vandy 68-63 just a few DAYS later. Dayton says NU is EIGHT pts better than Vandy.

Both Butler and Minny beat both Vandy and NU. But the margins of victory were different.

Butler beat NU 70-68, and defeated Vandy a week later by 10, 76-66. Butler says NU is EIGHT pts better. (What did Dayton say, again?)

Minny however rendered a more ambiguous verdict. It beat Vandy 56-52 in early December, and beat the cats a months later 70-66, yielding an identical 4-pts differential (although far more points were scored in the NU game).

SO, there is an unanimous decision: ALL THREE COMMON OPPONENTS say that Vandy is NOT better than NU. And two say NU is EIGHT pts better.

On average, they say NU is 5.33 pts better.

There you have it!

You can say that at the beginning of the season but now we are at the end. Both teams have gotten better since then so who knows.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

You can say that at the beginning of the season but now we are at the end. Both teams have gotten better since then so who knows.

Maybe all involved teams are playing better now than they did early in the season (baring injuries, obviously). In that case, the observed differential in favor of NU would remain, if the games were replayed around this time.

 

[FeralFelidae]

OK, to be fair, you'd have to consider home field advantage, and most importantly, whether any of the involved teams lost the services of a key player in such a way that NU or Vandy had an advantage. I haven't checked that.

NU beat Dayton without Pardon.

 

[NJCat]

NU beat Dayton without Pardon.

You know, I forgot that. Very strong team effort.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

NU beat Dayton without Pardon.

This may compensate for the fact that NU played Dayton at the United Center, which made it a quasi-home game for NU whereas Vandy played at Dayton.
EDIT: Incidentally, NU did play at Butler, whereas Vandy faced Butler at a neutral court.
Conversely, NU played Minny in Evanston, whereas Vandy played them at a neutral court.
I guess the homefield advantage isn't a major issue, here.

 

[CommodoresAndCats]

Vandy is a completely different team now than they were during the non-conference slate. Bryce Drew was still trying to figure out his personnel at that time. I understand that looking at common matchups is a good way to judge teams against each other, but in this case it really isn't.

 

[NJCat]

This may compensate for the fact that NU played Dayton at the United Center, which made it a quasi-home game for NU whereas Vandy played at Dayton.
EDIT: Incidentally, NU did play at Butler, whereas Vandy faced Butler at a neutral court.
Conversely, NU played Minny in Evanston, whereas Vandy played them at a neutral court.
I guess the homefield advantage isn't a major issue, here.

If you had actually watched the Dayton-NU game, you'd realize that NU was pretty much the visiting team, outnumbered by Dayton fans. But why dig any deeper than the box score......

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Vandy is a completely different team now than they were during the non-conference slate. Bryce Drew was still trying to figure out his personnel at that time. I understand that looking at common matchups is a good way to judge teams against each other, but in this case it really isn't.

As i said above, most teams can probably say the same (except those who have lost key players). All are playing better after playing together for 30+ games!!!

 

[FeliSilvestris]

If you had actually watched the Dayton-NU game, you'd realize that NU was pretty much the visiting team, outnumbered by Dayton fans. But why dig any deeper than the box score......

I said I didn't consider certain factors like home field and most importantly key injuries. If such factors favor NU then the basic conclusion (that NU is 5-8 pts better than Vandy) is strengthened, not weakened.

 

[Mr Wickerpark]

Vandy is a completely different team now than they were during the non-conference slate. Bryce Drew was still trying to figure out his personnel at that time. I understand that looking at common matchups is a good way to judge teams against each other, but in this case it really isn't.

Can you tell us the difference between the early season and now? And what would you consider a weakness?

I believe our main weakness is depth/bench and poor offense when teams take the 3pt away from us.

 

[CommodoresAndCats]

Can you tell us the difference between the early season and now? And what would you consider a weakness?

I believe our main weakness is depth/bench and poor offense when teams take the 3pt away from us.

Early season Vandy was running the Bryce Drew offense. Around mid season we returned to a motion offense lite, similar to what Kevin Stallings ran; it's more suited to the personnel since it open up shooters with off ball action and increases the chance for ball reversals which opens up driving lanes for guys that can't take it to the hoop off of the dribble.

The other big difference is Vandy learned how to play defense about 2/3 into the season. In my opinion, this is the reason Vandy is in the tournament right now. For most of the season the team ranked around 120th in defensive efficiency per KenPom, in the last 10 games that number has shot up to 41st. So in that ten game stretch, the team has realistically been playing top 20 quality defense.

 

[CommodoresAndCats]

As i said above, most teams can probably say the same (except those who have lost key players). All are playing better after playing together for 30+ games!!!

I'm going to have to disagree here. Many teams can regress over the course of a season even without losing players. Additionally, most teams improve but most don't improve as much as Vanderbilt has. NU got a little bit better between non conference and pre Scotty Lindsey illness, but Vanderbilt now vs. Vanderbilt against any of these opponents is night and day. At the end of the non-conference, I truly thought Vanderbilt was a bottom 4 SEC team.

 

[Deeringfish]

That is a fun bit of transitive comparison.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

I'm going to have to disagree here. Many teams can regress over the course of a season even without losing players. Additionally, most teams improve but most don't improve as much as Vanderbilt has.

Pretty unusual that by playing together and practicing countless hours together a team gets worse (without losing key players). Like practice makes imperfect, right?

You are entitled to your opinion but the actual on court results contradict your claim that Vandy has gotten a lot better (if at all). You forgot that we can test your claim against undisputable evidence: REPEAT OPPONENTS.

If Vandy did get a lot better through the season, it should show when facing the same opponent later in the season, RIGHT?????

Well, it doesn't and you can verify it your self. As one example, let's look at Florida. The ONLY impressive thing Vandy did ALL SEASON was to beat FL (ranked about 20) three times. First time, near beginning of the conf season, it beat FL by TWO. Next time, near end of regular season, it beat FL AGAIN BY TWO. Finally, in the SECT, it ended regulation TIED. Now it eventually did build a 10-pt OT lead, but almost certainly that was due to making FT as FL intentionally sent Vandy to the line to stop the clock. I count that as a tie. Clearly, whichever improvement Vandy made through the season didn't show through regulation of THREE complete games against the SAME opponent although the first game was one of the first in league play, and the second was one of the last. Not yet convinced?

Against Kentucky Vandy lost by 6 early in league play and by six late in league play. Where is the improvement?

Against Arkansas, it lost by one in January and by 14 in the SECT. Where is the improvement? (Vandy did beat Arkansas between the early and late game).
Need to continue?

Enough ON COURT evidence of no improvement has been presented to completely discard that claim.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

That is a fun bit of transitive comparison.

Not sure what you are referring to. Comparing performance against common opponents is very appropriate. That's totally different from so-called "transitivity" which usually involves a long chain like NU beat IOA, which beat OSU which beat BYU which beat Gonzaga, therefore NU is better than Gonzaga (ficticios example to make the point). We are NOT doing that!!

 

[CommodoresAndCats]

Pretty unusual that by playing together and practicing countless hours together a team gets worse (without losing key players). Like practice makes imperfect, right?

You are entitled to your opinion but the actual on court results contradict your claim that Vandy has gotten a lot better (if at all). You forgot that we can test your claim against undisputable evidence: REPEAT OPPONENTS.

If Vandy did get a lot better through the season, it should show when facing the same opponent later in the season, RIGHT?????

Well, it doesn't and you can verify it your self. As one example, let's look at Florida. The ONLY impressive thing Vandy did ALL SEASON was to beat FL (ranked about 20) three times. First time, near beginning of the conf season, it beat FL by TWO. Next time, near end of regular season, it beat FL AGAIN BY TWO. Finally, in the SECT, it ended regulation TIED. Now it eventually did build a 10-pt OT lead, but almost certainly that was due to making FT as FL intentionally sent Vandy to the line to stop the clock. I count that as a tie. Clearly, whichever improvement Vandy made through the season didn't show through regulation of THREE complete games against the SAME opponent although the first game was one of the first in league play, and the second was one of the last. Not yet convinced?

Against Kentucky Vandy lost by 6 early in league play and by six late in league play. Where is the improvement?

Against Arkansas, it lost by one in January and by 14 in the SECT. Where is the improvement? (Vandy did beat Arkansas between the early and late game).
Need to continue?

Enough ON COURT evidence of no improvement has been presented to completely discard that claim.

Sure dude.

 

[DaCat]

Not sure what you are referring to. Comparing performance against common opponents is very appropriate. That's totally different from so-called "transitivity" which usually involves a long chain like NU beat IOA, which beat OSU which beat BYU which beat Gonzaga, therefore NU is better than Gonzaga (ficticios example to make the point). We are NOT doing that!!

It is still the transitive property. It's really a trap for simpletons.

 

[hdhntr1]

Maybe all involved teams are playing better now than they did early in the season (baring injuries, obviously). In that case, the observed differential in favor of NU would remain, if the games were replayed around this time.

It depends on the amount of improvement. For NU, we sort of limped in to the BTT because of the loss of Lindsey. Vandy was much stronger going into their tourney. Still seems like a toss up

 

[FeliSilvestris]

It depends on the amount of improvement. For NU, we sort of limped in to the BTT because of the loss of Lindsey. Vandy was much stronger going into their tourney. Still seems like a toss up

As shown above, Vandy did NOT show improvement against its own conference rivals when it played the same rival a second or third time.
However NU did show great improvement last time it faced Rutgers and Mary (vs the previous times it faced either conf rival).

 

[FeliSilvestris]

It is still the transitive property. It's really a trap for simpletons.

Find an algebra book and review what transitivity means. It' s not what you seem to think.
Comparing performance against common opponents is so serious that some leagues use it among the OFFICIAL tie breakers (starting with the higher ranked opponent).
Example of one such league?
Read the B1G tie breaking procedures.

 

[hdhntr1]

As shown above, Vandy did NOT show improvement against its own conference rivals when it played the same rival a second or third time.
However NU did show great improvement last time it faced Rutgers and Mary (vs the previous times it faced either conf rival).

Those other teams likely showed improvement also. Just saying that Vand got strong down the stretch as they "learned" how to play defense. We limped down the stretch going 3-6 (Vandy went 7-2 down the stretch), but. much of that was because of the loss of Lindsey and a less than full strength Lindsey when he got back. But still we were limping the last half of the conference season. By the way, we also lost to IND and WIS, teams we had beaten earlier. Just saying, you are stretching. Hopefully a full strength Lindsey makes you correct but at this point, we just do not know.

 

[STPGopherfan]

Vandy and NU had three common opponents, a small sample in absolute terms, but relatively large, considering that these teams play in conferences that are based in different regions of the country. The 3 teams are Butler, Dayton and Minnesota.

All 3 made the NCAAT seeded 4, 7 and 5. All 6 games were relatively close, which means all involved teams tried to use and keep their best players on the court as much as possible, running the O and D strategies that gave them the best chance to defeat a tough opponent.

In other words, these games do provide very useful information to compare Vandy against NU.

And they render an unanimous decision!

The clearest and loudest voice is that of 7-seeded Dayton, which lost to NU 67–64 but beat Vandy 68-63 just a few DAYS later. Dayton says NU is EIGHT pts better than Vandy.

Both Butler and Minny beat both Vandy and NU. But the margins of victory were different.

Butler beat NU 70-68, and defeated Vandy a week later by 10, 76-66. Butler says NU is EIGHT pts better. (What did Dayton say, again?)

Minny however rendered a more ambiguous verdict. It beat Vandy 56-52 in early December, and beat the cats a months later 70-66, yielding an identical 4-pts differential (although far more points were scored in the NU game).

SO, there is an unanimous decision: ALL THREE COMMON OPPONENTS say that Vandy is NOT better than NU. And two say NU is EIGHT pts better.

On average, they say NU is 5.33 pts better.

There you have it!

We played later in the season. I am guessing both of our teams were/ are better than when Minnesota played Vanderbilt.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

I guess the common opponents weren't too far from what happened, although the game ended up a bit closer than they predicted: NU +2 vs NU +5. Not too bad considering that common opponents all played both teams very early in the season.