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Don’t Sleep on Maryland

AdamOnFirst

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2021
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A terrapin is, apparently, some type of turtle. Don’t let them lull you to sleep with their seeming slow speed, Jahmir Young can kill you a lightning first step and get to the rack like nobody else out there. I know Northwestern fans are prone to bouts of overconfidence, hubris, and extremely highly expectations of success, so it’s important we continue to remind ourselves as fans before every game to respect each opponent.

Massive game for securing a double bye and finishing up our tournament hunt. Quad 1 win opportunity.
 
So from before the first game, I had written:

Maryland is another team with very little depth, like us. Julian Reese will play almost the whole game unless he gets in foul trouble, his backup Caelum Swanton-Rodger is a steep drop-off in production. Neither player is a threat from 3. Jahmir Young has averaged 37.4 mpg in conference play, and his backup Jahari Long has essentially missed the last 3 games with a "lower body injury".​
They have 4 wings to fill 3 spots. Donta Scott, in his 17th year playing for the Terps, has been their only reliable 3-point shooter in conference play. Hopefully Brooks can lock him down. They also have IU transfer Jordan Geronimo, who's just kind of there, and two freshmen - DeShawn Harris-Smith, who has really struggled with his shot, and Jamie Kaiser, who's the backup. Noah Batchelor is another guy who gets 4-5 mpg. All of these guys are 6'5" or 6'6", except for Scott who is 6'8".​
What has worked for Maryland in conference play so far has been their defense, which thus far has been the best in the conference. The problem for them has been their 2nd-worst offense. Despite their relative lack of height in the frontcourt, Reese and Geronimo block a lot of shots, Reese rebounds everything near him, and nearly everyone has quick hands.​
Ultimately this game will come down to whether we can contain Young, who torched us last year with 18 points, and Reese, who had a 12 point 10 board 3 block double-double last year. Edey was able to stonewall Reese into 0 points 2 weeks ago, hopefully Big Matt is up to the task. We'll need to limit their offensive rebounding, force turnovers, keep Young off the line, and MAKE SHOTS!​
Go 'Cats!​
A pretty decent write-up, save for the fact that Geronimo took it personally and scored 12 points with 2 threes, which remains his high mark in conference play this year, and Jahari Long resumed his regular backup minutes at guard. We did not contain Young, though we did keep Reese relatively under control, forcing him into a career-high 6 turnovers.

Since then, Maryland is 4-6, 2-3 at home with wins over Iowa and Nebraska. They had a 3-game stretch where they dealt with a series of injuries, but seem to be back to their regular rotation. They still have the best defense in the conference, they still have the 2nd-worst offense in the conference.

Ultimately, this team is still all about where Jahmir Young can take them, with Reese and Scott in supporting roles, along with a bunch of offensively-challenged wings. Oh, and Young has shot 39% from 3 since our first game, and has played 96.2% of available minutes in the last 7 games, which includes a 2OT loss to OSU. Two days ago Rutgers managed to hold him to an uncharacteristically poor shooting night, going 0-4 on 2-point shots and only 6-10 from the FT line. He missed as many FTs in that game as he did in the previous 13 (94-98).

Meanwhile, expect Reese to be his dirty self again, except this time he won't get called for it. In home games, Reese has averaged 2.5 fouls per game in 89% of minutes played, vs 3.6 fouls in road games in 80% of minutes played. He also averages 12.4 rebounds at home against 8.2 on the road.

Donta Scott came into the first game shooting 38% from 3, shot 50% against us, 44% the next two games, then fell into a 3/22 slump in the following 3 games, and is shooting 30% since then.

Don't sleep on Maryland.
 
It will be interesting to see how we approach Young, defensively - and how that impacts who we put on the floor. My sense its hat Smith and Mullins may be needed to help slow him down - but putting them in means we give up some production point-wise, and we won't be able to space the floor on offence as we otherwise would. Also, who to put on him among the starting 5 is a question, because it is going to be a tiring job, and we don't have a monster defender like Chase Audige out there. I won't speculate, except to say there is nobody I would trust more than Chris Lowery to figure out the defensive game plan.
 
Won’t MDs game plan be running Young around until he gets a good matchup and then giving him the ball? That seems to be their game for the most part.

Let’s hope our boys are on their three point game.
 
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NU has beaten tougher teams. NU may have to watch Big Jahmir have another dominant game but win the game anyway, like last time. Awesome player. Watched him single-handedly steal a game from Iowa.
 
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Well, Vegas didn't get it right in our bowl game either! I bet the 'Cats with the points and to win outright as 7.5 dogs and was nicely rewarded. Best of all, I was there!
Thats the trifecta.
Take the Points as an underdog.
Bet the Money Line as an underdog.
Cheer the team to victory as an underdog.

Nicely done!
 
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The line is interesting, as Kenpom has MD by 3 and Torvik has MD by 2.

Looking back at past games at MD:
YearKenpom expectedActual resultDifference
2023MD by 6MD by 16-10
2022MD by 2NU by 6+8
2020MD by 16MD by 9+7
2019MD by 8MD by 18-10
2018MD by 6MD by 16-10
2016MD by 12MD by 6 (OT)+6
2015MD by 12MD by 1+11

So no real trend relative to expectations either. Might be as simple as the fact that their foul disparity is significantly better at home than on the road; somehow their opponent FT rate is 27.8% at home, 112th in the country, vs 39.6% on the road, 273rd in the country. Hard to believe that the same team plays so much cleaner at home...In addition, they rebound much better at home, we are more turnover prone on the road, and worse at 3-point shooting (though still really good, 14th in the country!) on the road.
 
The line is interesting, as Kenpom has MD by 3 and Torvik has MD by 2.

Looking back at past games at MD:

The predictive ratings also do not adjust for player health, so it makes sense the lines would also adjust a couple of points off of baseline based on Berry. I’ve been anecdotally keeping an eye on this and it seems like the games since then have included this effect, which makes sense.
 
Well, Vegas didn't get it right in our bowl game either! I bet the 'Cats with the points and to win outright as 7.5 dogs and was nicely rewarded. Best of all, I was there!
After taking down a $150 buy in hold’em tournament At Caesars on Friday night, a made the same bets on the Cats. Nice to come home from a trip to Vegas with ither peoples cash in ur pocket
 
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A terrapin is, apparently, some type of turtle. Don’t let them lull you to sleep with their seeming slow speed, Jahmir Young can kill you a lightning first step and get to the rack like nobody else out there. I know Northwestern fans are prone to bouts of overconfidence, hubris, and extremely highly expectations of success, so it’s important we continue to remind ourselves as fans before every game to respect each opponent.

Massive game for securing a double bye and finishing up our tournament hunt. Quad 1 win opportunity.
Their D is I think second in BIG behind Rutgers
 
I am going in for a colonoscopy tomorrow. After I drink my mix tonight, I doubt my loins will let me fall asleep on Maryland.
Parks And Recreation Godspeed GIF
 
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