I know they’re just a little state school from the northeast somewhere and they only beat Stetson by six in the second half yesterday, but if you look close you’ll see this is a strong team we shouldn’t take too lightly.
Don’t sleep on UConn
- Thread starter AdamOnFirst
- Start date
Get some rest!
We are playing with house money.
Nothing to lose, everything to gain.
Watching MSU take on NC makes me so mad. We would take down this overrated team
And hahahaha Kansas went down. Hahahaha. I mean I feel so sorry for them
And hahahaha Kansas went down. Hahahaha. I mean I feel so sorry for them
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28-17 MSU at one point in the first half with a halftime score of 40-31 UNC. Yeesh.
I see your point, but it's not like they're undefeated. How good can they really be?
I’ve heard praise of Cormac Ryan. It’s amazing how much announcers see a tall white dude with a smooth game and lose their minds as if they’re in the presence of the new Larry Bird. After he scored they said something like "Cormac Ryan gets going, watch out".
Reminds me of Beran. Ryan is, obviously, better and a decent player but damn, he was overhyped his entire playing career. Mediocre shooter with no ability to finish around the basket.
Alright, so per Sports Reference, this UConn team will be the 3rd-best team we've ever played under Collins, only behind the Gonzaga team in 2017 that finished as the National Runner-Up and the 2019 MSU team led by Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman that went to the final four, and beat us by 26 in the regular season. No biggie.
We're playing with house money. No one expects us to win, or really to even be competitive. We're relegated to TruTV. Clearly we've got them right where we want them.
I'm going to start with the play types first, as a point of comparison with FAU.
Transition: 19% of their plays, 79th percentile in frequency, but unlike FAU, they are devastatingly efficient, in the 94th percentile. We did quite well against FAU in this area, and our efficiency at defending transition plays jumped from the 24th percentile to the 32nd percentile. Let's hope we can do just as well tomorrow.
Attack and Kick: 17.4% of their plays. 89th percentile in frequency and 92nd percentile in efficiency. Again, these are drives into the lane and then passing out for a 3. Again, we did well against FAU in this area, boosting our efficiency at defending it from 33rd to 40th percentile. Unfortunately, they have Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban. Hopefully if Spencer is going to repeat a performance against us, it's the one where he scored 9 points on 2-5 shooting while fouling out in a 12 point loss and not the one where he scored 23 on 7-14 shooting in a 3 point win.
Rim Attacks: 17.3% of their plays, which is only 5th percentile in frequency, but, again, unlike FAU they are extremely efficient, in the 97th percentile. We improved slightly after the last game, going from 43rd to 47th percentile at defending it.
Rebound and Scramble: 11.5% of their plays, which is 94th percentile in frequency but merely 72nd percentile in efficiency, worse than FAU. We moved from 26th percentile to 30th percentile in defending after Friday's game.
Big Cut & Roll: 9.6% of their plays, 98th percentile in frequency, and 84th percentile in efficiency. This is a pick and roll play with Clingan going to the basket. We uh, didn't do great at stopping this, and Clingan is a leveled-up version of Goldin. Eep.
Our top 5 play types haven't changed, but as a point of comparison again with FAU:
Rim Attacks: 23.3% of our plays, 46th percentile in frequency and 78th percentile in efficiency. i.e. the Boo Buie plays. This is the most frequent play on defense UConn has faced as well, and they are also terrible at defending it, as they are in the 13th percentile at defending it. Between this and the All-American snub, I am once again looking forward to Boo going nuclear this game against Tristan Newton.
Attack and Kick: 16.3% of our plays, 80th percentile in frequency and 98th percentile in efficiency. UConn is even better at not allowing these types of plays - they are 11th percentile in frequency, but their efficiency at stopping it is only the 67th percentile, worse than FAU.
Midrange shots: 10.4% of our plays, which is 99th percentile in frequency, and we are now 84th percentile in efficiency (thank you midrange king Ryan Langborg!). UConn is much better at stopping this than FAU, in the 81st percentile for efficiency.
Transition: 9.9% of our plays, which is the 2nd percentile for frequency, but we are 99th percentile in efficiency. UConn allows a bit more transition opportunities than FAU, but is also much better at defending it, 81st percentile in efficiency.
Perimeter Cut: 9.7% of our plays, which is 94th percentile in frequency, and we are uh...worse at converting these after Friday, only 35th percentile in efficiency. It's our 2nd-worst type of play in regards to efficiency. These are plays where a player cuts to the basket from the perimeter, backdoor or otherwise. This is also UConn's best play type that they stop, as they are 100th percentile in efficiency.
Opportunities for UConn
Midrange: UConn is 91st percentile in efficiency, and we're just average in stopping it, at 66th percentile efficiency.
Opportunities for NU
Dribble Jumper: Only 4.9% of our plays, which is 71st percentile in frequency but we are 100th percentile in efficiency. UConn is better at stopping these than FAU, but still only 58th percentile.
Inside Out: This would be a much bigger opportunity with Nicholson playing, as this play is like Attack and Kick, except from a big passing it out to a 3-point shooter. 5.7% of our plays, which is 90th percentile in frequency and 97th percentile in efficiency. UConn is average in defending it, at 69th percentile in efficiency.
We're playing with house money. No one expects us to win, or really to even be competitive. We're relegated to TruTV. Clearly we've got them right where we want them.
I'm going to start with the play types first, as a point of comparison with FAU.
Transition: 19% of their plays, 79th percentile in frequency, but unlike FAU, they are devastatingly efficient, in the 94th percentile. We did quite well against FAU in this area, and our efficiency at defending transition plays jumped from the 24th percentile to the 32nd percentile. Let's hope we can do just as well tomorrow.
Attack and Kick: 17.4% of their plays. 89th percentile in frequency and 92nd percentile in efficiency. Again, these are drives into the lane and then passing out for a 3. Again, we did well against FAU in this area, boosting our efficiency at defending it from 33rd to 40th percentile. Unfortunately, they have Cam Spencer and Alex Karaban. Hopefully if Spencer is going to repeat a performance against us, it's the one where he scored 9 points on 2-5 shooting while fouling out in a 12 point loss and not the one where he scored 23 on 7-14 shooting in a 3 point win.
Rim Attacks: 17.3% of their plays, which is only 5th percentile in frequency, but, again, unlike FAU they are extremely efficient, in the 97th percentile. We improved slightly after the last game, going from 43rd to 47th percentile at defending it.
Rebound and Scramble: 11.5% of their plays, which is 94th percentile in frequency but merely 72nd percentile in efficiency, worse than FAU. We moved from 26th percentile to 30th percentile in defending after Friday's game.
Big Cut & Roll: 9.6% of their plays, 98th percentile in frequency, and 84th percentile in efficiency. This is a pick and roll play with Clingan going to the basket. We uh, didn't do great at stopping this, and Clingan is a leveled-up version of Goldin. Eep.
Our top 5 play types haven't changed, but as a point of comparison again with FAU:
Rim Attacks: 23.3% of our plays, 46th percentile in frequency and 78th percentile in efficiency. i.e. the Boo Buie plays. This is the most frequent play on defense UConn has faced as well, and they are also terrible at defending it, as they are in the 13th percentile at defending it. Between this and the All-American snub, I am once again looking forward to Boo going nuclear this game against Tristan Newton.
Attack and Kick: 16.3% of our plays, 80th percentile in frequency and 98th percentile in efficiency. UConn is even better at not allowing these types of plays - they are 11th percentile in frequency, but their efficiency at stopping it is only the 67th percentile, worse than FAU.
Midrange shots: 10.4% of our plays, which is 99th percentile in frequency, and we are now 84th percentile in efficiency (thank you midrange king Ryan Langborg!). UConn is much better at stopping this than FAU, in the 81st percentile for efficiency.
Transition: 9.9% of our plays, which is the 2nd percentile for frequency, but we are 99th percentile in efficiency. UConn allows a bit more transition opportunities than FAU, but is also much better at defending it, 81st percentile in efficiency.
Perimeter Cut: 9.7% of our plays, which is 94th percentile in frequency, and we are uh...worse at converting these after Friday, only 35th percentile in efficiency. It's our 2nd-worst type of play in regards to efficiency. These are plays where a player cuts to the basket from the perimeter, backdoor or otherwise. This is also UConn's best play type that they stop, as they are 100th percentile in efficiency.
Opportunities for UConn
Midrange: UConn is 91st percentile in efficiency, and we're just average in stopping it, at 66th percentile efficiency.
Opportunities for NU
Dribble Jumper: Only 4.9% of our plays, which is 71st percentile in frequency but we are 100th percentile in efficiency. UConn is better at stopping these than FAU, but still only 58th percentile.
Inside Out: This would be a much bigger opportunity with Nicholson playing, as this play is like Attack and Kick, except from a big passing it out to a 3-point shooter. 5.7% of our plays, which is 90th percentile in frequency and 97th percentile in efficiency. UConn is average in defending it, at 69th percentile in efficiency.
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Welp, Rivals ate like 2/3 of my post 🤦♂️ . Will likely not be able to put it all back together before the game, but the lasting point I had wanted to make was the following:
Pace is very impactful for UConn. In games with 62 possessions or less, UConn went 4-3. In games with 63 or more, they went 28-0.
Additionally, per Evan Miya, their 3 losses came when UConn shot fewer than 18 free throws and their opponents shot better than 32% on 3-point shots. If we want to win tomorrow, we need to slow things down, make our 3-pointers, and avoid fouling.
Don't sleep on the Huskies.
Pace is very impactful for UConn. In games with 62 possessions or less, UConn went 4-3. In games with 63 or more, they went 28-0.
Additionally, per Evan Miya, their 3 losses came when UConn shot fewer than 18 free throws and their opponents shot better than 32% on 3-point shots. If we want to win tomorrow, we need to slow things down, make our 3-pointers, and avoid fouling.
Don't sleep on the Huskies.
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Also it seems like beyond “make shots… a lot of shots” the one true key really is to play a slow game and take away transition.
I think NU is actually really good at shutting down the transition game, so I think we have a solid chance to achieve that
On those longer ones, I type it in word and then cut and paste. One benefit is to save in case rivals happens.
From another analytics blogger:
(1) UConn (-14.5) v. (9) Northwestern, 7:45 PM ET, TruTV
KenPom: UConn by 10, 82% to win
Torvik: UConn by 9.5, 84% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): UConn by 11.5, 88% to win
EvanMiya: UConn by 11, 87% to win
No, I’m not crazy enough to think UConn loses this game. I do have limits. But I do see the path here, I really do.
Northwestern can be a reasonably difficult short turnaround prep because of their hard-blitzing ball screen scheme, which will result in a lot of Tristen Newton pass-outs. That’s one thing, which is asking the other non-Newton players to take advantage of the substantial number of open jumpers Northwestern allows. The other is that Northwestern is going to hunt 1-on-1 matchups for Boo Buie from start to finish of this game.
It just takes two things: UConn shooting 24% or something from three, and Boo Buie hitting tough shots. Then, the game is absolutely on. As amazing as this UConn team is, they’re not invincible, and as Creighton/Seton Hall can tell you, it just takes one hot night.
Pick: UConn 76, Northwestern 67.
(1) UConn (-14.5) v. (9) Northwestern, 7:45 PM ET, TruTV
KenPom: UConn by 10, 82% to win
Torvik: UConn by 9.5, 84% to win
Last 10 games (Torvik): UConn by 11.5, 88% to win
EvanMiya: UConn by 11, 87% to win
No, I’m not crazy enough to think UConn loses this game. I do have limits. But I do see the path here, I really do.
Northwestern can be a reasonably difficult short turnaround prep because of their hard-blitzing ball screen scheme, which will result in a lot of Tristen Newton pass-outs. That’s one thing, which is asking the other non-Newton players to take advantage of the substantial number of open jumpers Northwestern allows. The other is that Northwestern is going to hunt 1-on-1 matchups for Boo Buie from start to finish of this game.
It just takes two things: UConn shooting 24% or something from three, and Boo Buie hitting tough shots. Then, the game is absolutely on. As amazing as this UConn team is, they’re not invincible, and as Creighton/Seton Hall can tell you, it just takes one hot night.
Pick: UConn 76, Northwestern 67.
Cats play up to their competition. They can win. How? I don’t know. But they can. See Evan Miyagawa below.
Trying to remember what I wrote about UConn's players last night:
Tristan Newton - point guard extraordinaire, All-American. I'm sure Boo is salivating to go up against him. He is an excellent passer, scorer and rebounder, and has a significant height advantage at 6'5".
Cam Spencer - we remember him from Rutgers last year. Sharpshooter from both mid range and long range, quick hands on D, hopefully he plays like he did in the regular season finale last year and not like the first Rutgers game where he made 6-7 threes.
Stefon Castile - The least-best of their starters, but still good. Very athletic freshman but not a great shooter yet.
Alex Karaban - 6'8" stretch 4, he's a good long range threat plus excellent at the rim in transition.
Donovan Clingan - A 7'2" large human. His biggest issue is staying on the floor, as he plays between 20-30 minutes per game due to foul trouble or blowout reasons. Poor free throw shooter at about 57%. Excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Basically a leveled-up version of Goldin. Eep.
Hassan Diarra - 6'2" backup PG/SG. A significant drop off from Newton/Spencer, but still very athletic player with quick hands on defense.
Samson Johnson - 6'10" 225lb backup center. We'll need to take advantage of the minutes when he plays. He likes to dunk a lot, but is otherwise a black hole on offense. Another good rebounder and shot blocker.
Jaylin Stewart - backup stretch 4 freshman, not a great shooter yet but has been getting increased minutes especially in the big east tourney.
Tristan Newton - point guard extraordinaire, All-American. I'm sure Boo is salivating to go up against him. He is an excellent passer, scorer and rebounder, and has a significant height advantage at 6'5".
Cam Spencer - we remember him from Rutgers last year. Sharpshooter from both mid range and long range, quick hands on D, hopefully he plays like he did in the regular season finale last year and not like the first Rutgers game where he made 6-7 threes.
Stefon Castile - The least-best of their starters, but still good. Very athletic freshman but not a great shooter yet.
Alex Karaban - 6'8" stretch 4, he's a good long range threat plus excellent at the rim in transition.
Donovan Clingan - A 7'2" large human. His biggest issue is staying on the floor, as he plays between 20-30 minutes per game due to foul trouble or blowout reasons. Poor free throw shooter at about 57%. Excellent rebounder and shot blocker. Basically a leveled-up version of Goldin. Eep.
Hassan Diarra - 6'2" backup PG/SG. A significant drop off from Newton/Spencer, but still very athletic player with quick hands on defense.
Samson Johnson - 6'10" 225lb backup center. We'll need to take advantage of the minutes when he plays. He likes to dunk a lot, but is otherwise a black hole on offense. Another good rebounder and shot blocker.
Jaylin Stewart - backup stretch 4 freshman, not a great shooter yet but has been getting increased minutes especially in the big east tourney.
What’s disheartening about seeing Vegas give a 13.5 pts edge to Connecticut is that it implies a blowout of sorts. Usually you end up at 10-15 pts by going up 25 and then taking your foot off the gas.
House money. I could get used to see us in the tournament.
House money. I could get used to see us in the tournament.
It seems we match up well with UCONN. I don’t think they have seen a defense like ours and we have proven capability defending 7 foot giants even without Nicholson.
Best guard on the floor will be wearing Purple and White.
Cats win.
NU O is streaky. Streaky good against Minny, bad against UW.
During periods of the Minny game, it seemed NU couldn't miss and got stronger as the game went on. NU plays like that and they can hang with UCONN.
UCONN knows the NU D will be all over them. So did FAU and it still held them to their halftime season low.
UCONN has the talent. NU has the coaching and toughness.
We know where you'll be 6:45CDT. If it reaches half the intensity of the previous game, it will be fantastic.
During periods of the Minny game, it seemed NU couldn't miss and got stronger as the game went on. NU plays like that and they can hang with UCONN.
UCONN knows the NU D will be all over them. So did FAU and it still held them to their halftime season low.
UCONN has the talent. NU has the coaching and toughness.
We know where you'll be 6:45CDT. If it reaches half the intensity of the previous game, it will be fantastic.
Minn gave us open shots, Wisconsin didn't. That was the difference to me. Hopefully UConn gives us some. Go Cats!
Time for the biggest win in program history. Hey, might as well be optimistic.
"To realize that all your season - all your love, all your hate, all your memory, all your pain, it was all the same thing. It was all the same dream, a dream season that you had inside the Big Ten. A dream season about Boo Buie being THE person... And like a lot of dreams, there's a monster at the end of it"
