Don't Sleep on FAU

[CappyNU]

First off, we were clearly destined to play in Brooklyn based on the theme of the previews this year:


That being said, while Lou and others have already started putting together some previews on FAU, I'm gonna do my thing here.

Interesting fact #1 about FAU: They are #1 in the country as far as minutes continuity - meaning they returned literally all but one player from last season's surprise Final Four team, and have replaced him with a player who was on the roster last year. No freshmen have seen any minutes for them this year.
Interesting fact #2: They haven't played a team as good as NU since December 23, when they beat Arizona by 1 in a 2OT neutral-site game. They have played 5 top-70 Kenpom teams this season, all at neutral sites, and went 4-1 with the lone loss to Illinois by 9.

Terrifying fact #1: They appear to play much better under the brightest lights. For whatever reason, they slept-walked through a large part of the conference season. They started off the year going 9-3 against the spread, but then had their own Chicago State, in a loss at FGCU that occurred the game after beating Arizona, which was the start of them failing to cover the spread in 7 straight games and 13 of their next 17. Their top players all shoot better against the best teams they've faced than against the rest of their schedule.

Now, on to the player previews.

We start with the star, Johnell Davis. One of the best shooters in the country at all three levels, and an excellent rebounder at his 6'4" size as well. He's not quite a point guard, though his assist% is the highest on the team. He's one of only 4 players in the NCAA tournament that plays >30mpg, shoots >45% from 2, >40% from 3, >85% from the FT line, a steal% of >2.0, and has a usage rate of >25%. Offensively, he's incredible, and he drives the team. Against the top 5 teams they played this year, he averaged 21.4 points per game on 56% shooting from 2, 56% shooting from 3(!) and 92% shooting from the FT line, along with 7 rebounds per game. If he does have one weakness on offense, it's that he's turnover-prone against top teams. He averaged 4.2 turnovers per game against the top 5, compared with only 2.2 turnovers per game against the bottom 23 teams. He will be a handful. Oh, by the way, another one of the 4 players mentioned above is Boo Buie.

Next up, Alijah Martin. A burly 6'2" guard who's taken a small step back this year. Last year he was the clear second man for FAU, this year he's taken a bit of a back seat to the large Russian. Regardless, like Davis, he's played his best against the best teams they've faced. Martin is a pure shooting guard; he takes the most threes of anyone on the team - 6/game, though only making 34.8%. He's a terrible midrange shooter, but pretty good at the rim and will try to dunk it if he can. He's the best defender on the team, averaging 2 steals/game against the top 5 teams they've faced.

Brandon Weatherspoon is another shooting/wing guard at 6'4", and the first one who has struggled more against the better teams. He's more of a three point specialist, but only shooting 26.7% against the top 5 teams and 32.3% against the top 10. The rare times he does shoot a 2 though, he's nearly automatic. Fortunately he only takes two of those per game, as he's one of a trio of guards that rarely shoots. He's also a solid defender.

Jalen Gaffney rounds out the starting guards. After playing 3 seasons at UConn, he transferred to FAU after seeing his minutes diminish. Last year, he played more of a backup PG role late in the year and in the tournament, as his shooting numbers were awful. This year, he's having the best season of his career, and - stop me if you've heard this already - he's played his best games against the toughest competition. Against the top 5 teams, he's scored 13 points per game on 50% shooting from 2 and 60% from 3(!), while averaging 5 assists against 0.8 turnovers per game. In the other 28 games he's played, he averages only 4.5 points per game on 46.7% from 2 and just 32.6% from 3, with only 2 assists against 0.9 turnovers per game, so hopefully we get the worse version of Gaffney on Friday.

To round out the starting lineup, we have Vlad the ImpOwler (sorry, sorry, I'm trying to delete it). Coming from the hinterlands of Russia, he played his first season in the hinterlands of Lubbock, Texas at Texas Tech before transferring to FAU. Standing tall at 7'1", on a per minute basis, he is the top scorer on FAU. His problem has been being able to remain on the court, especially against the top teams. Against the top 5 teams, he averages 4.2 fouls per game. In all other games, only 1.9 fouls per game. When he has faced a team with a starting center that's 6'10" or taller, he averages 13.8 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.7 blocks. Against starting centers 6'9" or shorter, he averages 17.3 points, 6.3 boards and 1.5 blocks. He is an incredibly efficient scorer both at the rim and in midrange, but does not shoot 3s. He also draws a ton of fouls like some other center we've faced this year whose name I'm not going to mention, and much like that center, he's a mediocre FT shooter, at about 65%. He's also an excellent shot blocker. Really wish we had Nicholson for this one.

To the reserves we go. First up, Nick Boyd, who was a starter for the first 3 games before getting injured, then started another 11 conference games in a row before moving back to the bench for the last 7 games. Boyd is a 6'3" guard whose game is similar to Martin's and Weatherspoon's, so there's not much to add here.

Next, we have 6'0" Bryan Greenlee, who played garbage time minutes for the Gophers in 2020 before transferring to FAU. Similar to Boyd, he started the first 4 games before being benched in favor of Gaffney, but then returned to start the same 11 games in a row that Boyd did, before returning to the bench aside from a start on Senior day. Greenlee hasn't recovered the shooting touch he had last year when he was a 41.2% shooter from 3, as he's only making 34.2% this year. He's pretty average.

Giancarlo Rosado is the backup center at a hefty 6'8" 247 pounds. He was playing 15.4mpg before he got hurt in the middle of the season and missed 7 games. Since his return, he's only playing 9.7mpg, which is good for FAU because he's pretty terrible in all areas except, oddly, assists. In the last 9 games, he's only averaging 2.4 points, 1.4 boards, 1.1 assists and 0.9 turnovers compared to 7 points, 4.1 boards, 1.6 assists and 1.4 turnovers. We'll need to really attack them when he's on the court.

The last member of the rotation is Brenen Lorient, who is the only FAU player that didn't see the court during the NCAA tourney last year. He only averages about 8mpg, mostly in a PF role, though occasionally will play center. He's shown some good rebounding and shot blocking skills in his limited minutes, but not a whole lot offensively.

Stylistically, the two teams are pretty different. FAU is content to play out possessions on defense and wants to force teams to beat them off the dribble, as their A/FGM ratio is the lowest of any team in the tourney, while we like to force teams to pass it around hoping to get them to make a bad pass that we can steal. On offense, they like to go fast, so we need to prevent the transition opportunities and force them to play in the half court, and they like to crash the boards, but hopefully our height at the other four positions outside of center can prevent them from getting second chances. Meanwhile we're content to go slow and run our offense until we can get an open 3-point shot or Boo does his thing.

I don't know how this game is going to turn out. Interestingly, our defense has been significantly better away from home while our offense has been significantly worse. My hope is that Boo does what he's done all year when the attention is at a peak and balls out, Brooks and Martinelli combine to shut down Davis, 'Borg does his thing and repeats his tourney performance from last year, and a strong pro-NU crowd gives us the boost we need to get to the finish line. I'm ready to enjoy it though, however it shakes out.

Don't sleep on the Owls.

 

[DaCat]

After reading this writeup on FAU, it’s hard to fathom how they even lost any games this year, let alone not win every game by 30 points. Geezus they sound scary on paper. So hopefully we kick their ass easily.

 

[Eurocat]

The NY Post writes -

FAU returns all five starters from a season ago and 90% of its player minutes. It could face UConn if it gets past Northwestern in the first round.

Guards Jalen Gaffney and Brandon Weatherspoon are the only seniors in the Owls’ lineup. However, their top three scoring leaders (Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin and Vladislav Goldin) are all juniors, so this is an ultra-experienced team.

Davis averages 18.2 points, Goldin scores 15.2 and Martin contributes 13.3 per game. Goldin’s 7-foot-1 frame will be an asset against Connecticut’s size.

FAU is one of the leading scoring teams in the country averaging 83 points per game.

 

[CatManTrue]

Part of me thinks @CappyNU used ChatGPT to write this post. It’s difficult to read on my phone so I’ll need to bust out my laptop or ipad to digest it tomorrow.

Did anyone else see that Wagner won their first game with only 7 players? They lost 4 starters to injury and still beat Howard!

If Big Matt plays, I like our chances. If not… well, I’ll help bring the noise!

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

Looking at these time stamps, it’s clear @CatManTrue is not sleeping on anyone.

 

[GatoLouco]

I watched a good chunk of 2 FAU games this season. General impression was that they were very impressive on offense. Very hard to stop, that kind of team you just have to score more because they have enough weapons to score consistently. It just never seemed like they had possessions where they were struggling to find a decent shot.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

First, this is an awesome and appreciated scouting report.

Second, there are many many facets of a game like this to analyze and think about obviously. But it really can’t be overstated how hype the Buie v. Davis matchup is. It’s not very often a matchup that’s backed with unlimited buildup is matched by unlimited stats, but this one is. This is as big as it. We might be about to witness something truly special between these two.

I’m a little curious how we choose defend Davis. Buie probably isn’t the best choice because he gives up some size. It can’t be Langborg or Martinelli. They are obviously going to switch a lot, but I wonder if he gets Brooks a lot, which leaves Martinelliba lot to do helping against the Ruskie. Probably silly to ask given how often we switch.

 

[ricko654321]

First, this is an awesome and appreciated scouting report.

Second, there are many many facets of a game like this to analyze and think about obviously. But it really can’t be overstated how hype the Buie v. Davis matchup is. It’s not very often a matchup that’s backed with unlimited buildup is matched by unlimited stats, but this one is. This is as big as it. We might be about to witness something truly special between these two.

I’m a little curious how we choose defend Davis. Buie probably isn’t the best choice because he gives up some size. It can’t be Langborg or Martinelli. They are obviously going to switch a lot, but I wonder if he gets Brooks a lot, which leaves Martinelliba lot to do helping against the Ruskie. Probably silly to ask given how often we switch.

I think we lead with Brooks (my first choice) or Langborg (my second choice) on J Davis. Maybe mix up both of them. But as you said there will be plenty of switching. I imagine they will try to switch to get Buie on Davis and then have him attack the basket to score or get Boo into foul trouble.

 

[TejasCat]

I hope we don't put Langborg on Davis, he is too prone to foul trouble. Brooks plays much smarter on D. Every game I have nightmares of Langborg picking up early fouls. He is integral to winning this game. If he stays on the court, he will get many open shots, and could easily go for 20+ in a Cat win.

 

[CatManTrue]

Looking at these time stamps, it’s clear @CatManTrue is not sleeping on anyone.

The Truth never sleeps!

I’ve got March Madness on my mind and I haven’t even filled out a bracket.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

Based just on what I've read here, I like the idea of Brooks and Mart backing down smaller defenders and, when doubled, kicking out to Boo and Borg or, if the big man comes over, dumping it to Hunger or Preston for the dunk.

 

[NUCat320]

I’m a little curious how we choose defend Davis. Buie probably isn’t the best choice because he gives up some size. It can’t be Langborg or Martinelli. They are obviously going to switch a lot, but I wonder if he gets Brooks a lot, which leaves Martinelliba lot to do helping against the Ruskie. Probably silly to ask given how often we switch.

I’d imagine Brooks gets first crack, but that Smith gets a few more minutes than normal.

I have not seen FAU, but Davis stat line sure looks like a tough matchup. Without Nicholson in the post, we’ll need to see aggressive off-ball hedging (and hopefully refs that swallow the whistle on an occasional hand-slap). But his turnover numbers are good, too.

 

[Figrating]

That's 4-star recon, Cappy.

Maybe the crack of dawn start will give NU an advantage somehow. Maybe a lot of NU fans show up and bring the WR vibe.

IMHO, the new NU team benefits with this time off to practice together and get consistent. The new NU team has two levels of shooting as they have shown winning against Minny and losing against UW. The new NU team CAN win. They may not be as talented as their opponents, but they have better coaching and they're tougher. That's what CCC seems to think. He's gotten to be a credible dude. GO CATS!

 

[CappyNU]

Did some further data hunting. Looking at the numbers in their wins vs their losses without adjusting for opponent strength:

In FAU's wins, their offensive efficiency was 1.22 points/possession, vs 1.04 points/possession in losses. This was driven almost entirely by better shooting, with an eFG% of 57.6 in their wins vs 47.7 in losses; 57.4% vs 52.5% from 2, and 37.9% vs 26.7% from 3. They also had an increase in offensive rebound rate - 34.3% vs 30.5%, along with slight improvements in turnover% and FTrate. The type and amount of shots taken was roughly equivalent.

Defensively, in their wins, their efficiency was 1.02 points/possession, vs 1.10 points/possession in losses. Opposing teams had an eFG% of 48.9% in wins vs 53.1% in losses; 47.8% vs 53.1% from 2, 33.3% vs 35.1% from 3, and 71.2% vs 77.1% at the FT line. They also had an increase of turnover% - 17.1% in wins vs 14.6% in losses, and a slightly lower FTrate in wins - 35.6 vs 37.9.

Last few tidbits courtesy of Evan Miya's website:

When opposing teams get 4+ blocks, FAU is only 8-7, when it's less than that, they are 17-1. When FAU has either 14+ assists or holds opponents to less than 50.7% shooting on 2s, they are 24-4. If neither or those happen, they are 1-4. When their assist to FG ratio is 51.6% or higher, they are 15-2, otherwise 10-6, and when they take 38.9% of shots from 3 or more, they are 14-3 vs 11-5 otherwise.

For us, when we shoot 50.6% or more from 2s or have less than 9 turnovers, we are 18-4. If neither of those things happen, we are 3-7. When we take fewer than 38.5% of our shots from 3, we are 14-2, when it's more, we're 7-9. Last, when our assist to FG ratio is 62.2% or higher, we are 13-3, when it's less, we are 8-8.

 

[macarthur31]

Did some further data hunting. Looking at the numbers in their wins vs their losses without adjusting for opponent strength:

In FAU's wins, their offensive efficiency was 1.22 points/possession, vs 1.04 points/possession in losses. This was driven almost entirely by better shooting, with an eFG% of 57.6 in their wins vs 47.7 in losses; 57.4% vs 52.5% from 2, and 37.9% vs 26.7% from 3. They also had an increase in offensive rebound rate - 34.3% vs 30.5%, along with slight improvements in turnover% and FTrate. The type and amount of shots taken was roughly equivalent.

Defensively, in their wins, their efficiency was 1.02 points/possession, vs 1.10 points/possession in losses. Opposing teams had an eFG% of 48.9% in wins vs 53.1% in losses; 47.8% vs 53.1% from 2, 33.3% vs 35.1% from 3, and 71.2% vs 77.1% at the FT line. They also had an increase of turnover% - 17.1% in wins vs 14.6% in losses, and a slightly lower FTrate in wins - 35.6 vs 37.9.

Last few tidbits courtesy of Evan Miya's website:

When opposing teams get 4+ blocks, FAU is only 8-7, when it's less than that, they are 17-1. When FAU has either 14+ assists or holds opponents to less than 50.7% shooting on 2s, they are 24-4. If neither or those happen, they are 1-4. When their assist to FG ratio is 51.6% or higher, they are 15-2, otherwise 10-6, and when they take 38.9% of shots from 3 or more, they are 14-3 vs 11-5 otherwise.

For us, when we shoot 50.6% or more from 2s or have less than 9 turnovers, we are 18-4. If neither of those things happen, we are 3-7. When we take fewer than 38.5% of our shots from 3, we are 14-2, when it's more, we're 7-9. Last, when our assist to FG ratio is 62.2% or higher, we are 13-3, when it's less, we are 8-8.

Wow - 1.22 v 1.04 PPP is pretty stark. I'm hoping that Barnhizer and Martinelli's length will help hinder shots. Somehow Prez/Hunger are gonna have to step up rim protection - perhaps not register blocks, but annoy their dribble drives enough.

It's also interesting that their OREB rate ticked up in wins, when they had fewer OREB's to grab as they had better eFG in those games. The 'Cats have been trending upwards in protecting glass, so I'm hoping we can win that battle.

 

[SmellyCat]

Just remember that Owls sleep during the day!

 

[CappyNU]

Analysis part the 3rd!

Started browsing through Reddit and found an interesting site that breaks down the different play actions that each team runs on offense and sees on defense.

FAU offense top 5 play types:

Rim Attacks: 20.6% of their plays, which is 25th percentile in frequency, but their efficiency is 78th percentile. These are drives from the perimeter that end at the rim or with a pullup/floater shot. This also happens to be the most frequent type of play we've faced, though we're only 43rd percentile in stopping it.

Transition: I had previously mentioned our need to stop them from getting transition opportunities and this data shows that as well. 20% of their plays are transition opportunities which is in the 86th percentile of teams, but they are only average in finishing them at the 54th percentile. We allow transition opportunities 14% of the time, which is the 2nd-most frequent type of play we face, and we are very bad at stopping them, in the 24th percentile.

Attack and Kick: 13.5% of their plays, which is 44th percentile in frequency but their efficiency is 89th percentile. These are drives and then passing out to a 3-point shooter when the defense collapses. We allow these plays 13% of the time, which is the 3rd-most frequent play we face, and - stop me if you've heard this before - we're not very good at stopping these either, in the 33rd percentile.

Post-Up: Pretty self-explanatory here. 10.6% of their plays, which is 85th percentile, and they are 94th percentile in efficiency. Fortunately we handle post-ups reasonably well, and are in the 69th percentile at stopping them, making this our 2nd-best defensive play.

Rebound and Scramble: 9.8% of their plays, 71st percentile in frequency and 83rd percentile in efficiency. These are second-chance opportunities, whether it's a putback at the rim or a kick-out for a 3. Once again, we are quite bad at stopping these, in the 26th percentile.

Now, I don't think this is adjusted for opponent quality, so it may not be as dire of a situation as I'm painting here, but the things they do the most on offense generally correspond to the things we do the worst on defense.

NU offense top 5 play types:

Rim Attacks: 23.5% of our plays, 48th percentile in frequency and 77th percentile in efficiency. i.e. the Boo Buie plays. This is the most frequent play on defense FAU has faced as well, and they are terrible at defending it, as they are in the 13th percentile at defending it. Between this and the All-American snub, I am once again looking forward to Boo going nuclear this game.

Attack and Kick: 16.4% of our plays, 81st percentile in frequency and 98th percentile in efficiency. FAU is pretty good at not allowing these types of plays - they are 12th percentile in frequency, as their defensive philosophy seems to avoid help defense in favor of sticking close to your man. Their efficiency at stopping it is 76th percentile. This will be a good sign if we can hit our threes and disrupt what they want to do.

Midrange shots: 10.3% of our plays, which is 99th percentile in frequency, though we are 80th percentile in efficiency. Modern basketball has moved away from the midrange, as it's a poor shot even when you are efficient relative to other teams. FAU is mediocre at stopping this, in the 47th percentile for efficiency.

Transition: 9.9% of our plays, which is the 2nd percentile for frequency, but we are 99th percentile in efficiency. Maybe we should try more of this! FAU is very good at limiting transition opportunities though, being 17th percentile in frequency and 68th percentile in efficiency.

Perimeter Cut: 9.8% of our plays, which is 94th percentile in frequency, and we are uh...bad at converting these, only 37th percentile in efficiency. It's our 2nd-worst type of play in regards to efficiency. These are plays where a player cuts to the basket from the perimeter, backdoor or otherwise. This is FAU's best play type that they stop, as they are 99th percentile in efficiency. Maybe we should do a lot less of this on Friday!

Opportunities for FAU:

Uh, we've already covered the mismatches from 4 of their 5 top play types, the only other one that's slightly underutilized is the pick and roll with the large Russian. It's their 6th-most frequent play type and they are 73rd percentile in efficiency, while we are just average at stopping it.

Opportunities for NU:

Dribble Jumper: Only 5% of our plays, which is 75th percentile in frequency and we are 100th percentile in efficiency. These are 3s off the dribble, i.e. coming off ISOs or when a defender goes under a screen. FAU is very bad at stopping this, only 21st percentile in efficiency.

Post-Up: We rarely go this route, only 3.5% of our plays, which is 7th percentile in frequency and our efficiency is only 46th percentile. This would be a much bigger opportunity with Nicholson playing, as FAU's efficiency in stopping it is only in the 31st percentile.

Pick and roll with a big: This, again, would be a much bigger opportunity with Nicholson playing. 5.9% of our plays, which is 69th percentile in frequency and 72nd percentile in efficiency. FAU is average in defending it, at 56th percentile in efficiency.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Great information, Cappy.

My head is telling me that we're too damaged and FAU is too capable.

However, if we can get Martinelli and Barnhizer down in the paint and get Goldin out of shot-blocking position, they won't be able to stop us. I could see either or both of those guys having huge games.
This might require Hunger going out to the perimeter and knocking down some shots to drag Goldin away from the paint or Preston just screening Goldin to prevent him helping.

But it is one way we can beat FAU.

Also, FAU's seeding is a little "perplexing" given their Final Four appearance last year. They basically have the same roster. So it is pretty obvious (glaringly obvious?) that the NCAA stuck them up against top-seeded UConn in round 2 intentionally. They are not wanted. Works to our advantage. For one game, anyhow.

 

[EagerFan]

Also, FAU's seeding is a little "perplexing" given their Final Four appearance last year. They basically have the same roster. So it is pretty obvious (glaringly obvious?) that the NCAA stuck them up against top-seeded UConn in round 2 intentionally. They are not wanted. Works to our advantage. For one game, anyhow.

That's a pretty dark view of the committee, eh?

 

[CappyNU]

That's a pretty dark view of the committee, eh?

The same committee that matched up Nebraska and Texas A&M in both men's and women's basketball after Nebraska's AD left to go there, and put Rick Barnes' Tennessee on a path to play Texas?

 

[mesacat]

Will be happy if our guys play hard for all 40. The absence of Berry and Matt reflected in last few games and may be too much to overcome. Some offensive production from Clayton,Smith and Mullins would be nice. Hopefully CCC has drawn up some plays for them. They could be the key for an upset.q

 

[SDakaGordie]

Will be happy if our guys play hard for all 40. The absence of Berry and Matt reflected in last few games and may be too much to overcome. Some offensive production from Clayton,Smith and Mullins would be nice. Hopefully CCC has drawn up some plays for them. They could be the key for an upset.q

I think there is no doubt they will play hard for all 40. These 3 guys are not our focus; let’s hope they just play serviceably. If we get hot and make shots and stay out of foul trouble, we are going to win. Our margin for error is very thin but we’ve shown we can do it (Minnesota).

 

[NUCat320]

I think there is no doubt they will play hard for all 40. These 3 guys are not our focus; let’s hope they just play serviceably. If we get hot and make shots and stay out of foul trouble, we are going to win. Our margin for error is very thin but we’ve shown we can do it (Minnesota).

The game will be won of two of Barny, Langborg, and Martinelli shoot well.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

That's 4-star recon, Cappy.

Maybe the crack of dawn start will give NU an advantage somehow. Maybe a lot of NU fans show up and bring the WR vibe.

IMHO, the new NU team benefits with this time off to practice together and get consistent. The new NU team has two levels of shooting as they have shown winning against Minny and losing against UW. The new NU team CAN win. They may not be as talented as their opponents, but they have better coaching and they're tougher. That's what CCC seems to think. He's gotten to be a credible dude. GO CATS!

The better coaching comment is interesting as the FAU Coach is rumored to be a top target for the Michigan opening.

 

[NUThump]

The line had us as a 1.5 point underdog earlier in the week. We are now getting 3.5, so a lot of money on FAU.

 

[DaCat]

The line had us as a 1.5 point underdog earlier in the week. We are now getting 3.5, so a lot of money on FAU.

We are going to bust a lot of brackets! Don't sleep on the Cats.

 

[TheC]

Well…. my flight leaves in about 30 minutes. I am laying over right now in Chicago so maybe that’s a good omen. The next time I’ll be connected, our game should have just ended. Hope I land to great news. Bring us a victory everyone who will be there!!

 

[NUThump]

The line had us as a 1.5 point underdog earlier in the week. We are now getting 3.5, so a lot of money on FAU.

Easy money.