Been holding off on this one, but can't do it anymore:
In any event, here are my thoughts on the game:
All in all, this is a game that will be very informative about this team's trajectory in 2015. Quite frankly, I'm pretty confident as the Cats head out to Durham. Let's just hope they can back it up on the field.
- Duke doesn't scare me. At all. They've taken advantage of a historically-weak ACC conference and been even luckier by being in the weaker Coastal division.
- Cutcliffe gets a whole lot of credit for being a "QB Guru" of sorts, but it doesn't take a genius to coach up Peyton and Eli Manning. It's not like Erik Ainge, Thaddeus Lewis, Sean Renfree, Anthony Boone, or guys of that level have been world-beaters.
- I look at what Cutcliffe has done in a similar light to what James Franklin did at Vanderbilt -- he's taken advantage of a very weak conference to push his team forward. They came out on the winning end of a lot of close ballgames in 2013 and 2014 (I count four one-score wins in 2013 and three in 2014 against one regular season one-score loss each in 2013 and 2014). They were absolutely exposed by FSU in the ACC championship game in an absolute laugher against FSU after the 2013 season. I think Cutcliffe is a much better coach than Franklin, but that doesn't make Duke world-beaters.
- We've heard all week about Duke's team speed. In the video that I've been able to find, I just flat haven't seen it. It's not hard to look fast playing against Tulane and North Carolina Central. Duke's personnel isn't really anything to be scared of.
- Similarly, it's not hard to look like a statistically strong team playing against the likes of Tulane and North Carolina Central, nor is it hard to execute an offense when your QB is operating with virtually no pressure (one sack in two games that came in the third quarter against NCC with Duke already up 31-0 and ONE other QB hurry). Duke's OL doesn't look like world-beaters, so I'm thinking they might get a bit of a wake-up call facing the likes of Lowry, Gibson, Odenigbo, etc.
- Even then, Duke was up 16-0 on a dreadful Tulane team (which got absolutely ROLLED against Georgia Tech 65-10) in the fourth quarter and capitalized on an absolutely laughable special teams gaffe by Tulane deep in their own territory to open up the game and tacked on a KOR TD to make the game look more convincing than it really was.
In any event, here are my thoughts on the game:
- I fully anticipate to see Duke trying to run a variety of exotic defensive looks in an attempt to confuse Thorson in his third career start (which is really his second, as EIU didn't exactly present much of a challenge). I hope that our response is to wait until Duke has personnel on the field we like to run against, then we go tempo with our zone-read. Duke's defensive front is rather undersized and they like to roll a lot of guys in to compensate. Let's exploit that to the extent that our OL allows us to do so. Running tempo also limits the looks that a defense can show.
- We haven't seen a ton of it yet, but I thought Thorson showed a much better willingness to step up in the pocket and use the middle of the field against EIU. The game will obviously be a lot faster against Duke, but the signs are there that Thorson is at least on the right path in developing as a passer. This will be crucial to take Duke out of its typically-aggressive defensive scheme.
- Sirk is a nice looking athlete, but has a LONG LONNNGGG release. If the front four aren't getting it done on their own, I hope we see Hank bring some additional pressure to force Sirk into trying to get rid of the ball quickly. I suspect he hasn't had to make many hot throws against Tulane or NCC and this is a guy who had 14 career pass attempts before this season. Much like I anticipate Duke to test Thorson's decision making ability, let's see what Sirk can do with real live pressure.
- Special teams will be crucial, but I don't think we've been as weak as some around here believe. Sure it would be great to book the KO through the end zone every time and hit 55-yard punts, but our coverage hasn't been bad so far. The coverage teams will have to remain on their game as Duke dues have a couple of dangerous return guys, but long returns are typically the result of blown assignments by the coverage team as opposed to truly spectacular plays by the returners. Keep your wits about you, play your assignment, and sell out... you should be fine.
All in all, this is a game that will be very informative about this team's trajectory in 2015. Quite frankly, I'm pretty confident as the Cats head out to Durham. Let's just hope they can back it up on the field.