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Duke Game Thoughts

gocatsgo2003

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Mar 30, 2006
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Been holding off on this one, but can't do it anymore:

  1. Duke doesn't scare me. At all. They've taken advantage of a historically-weak ACC conference and been even luckier by being in the weaker Coastal division.
  2. Cutcliffe gets a whole lot of credit for being a "QB Guru" of sorts, but it doesn't take a genius to coach up Peyton and Eli Manning. It's not like Erik Ainge, Thaddeus Lewis, Sean Renfree, Anthony Boone, or guys of that level have been world-beaters.
  3. I look at what Cutcliffe has done in a similar light to what James Franklin did at Vanderbilt -- he's taken advantage of a very weak conference to push his team forward. They came out on the winning end of a lot of close ballgames in 2013 and 2014 (I count four one-score wins in 2013 and three in 2014 against one regular season one-score loss each in 2013 and 2014). They were absolutely exposed by FSU in the ACC championship game in an absolute laugher against FSU after the 2013 season. I think Cutcliffe is a much better coach than Franklin, but that doesn't make Duke world-beaters.
  4. We've heard all week about Duke's team speed. In the video that I've been able to find, I just flat haven't seen it. It's not hard to look fast playing against Tulane and North Carolina Central. Duke's personnel isn't really anything to be scared of.
  5. Similarly, it's not hard to look like a statistically strong team playing against the likes of Tulane and North Carolina Central, nor is it hard to execute an offense when your QB is operating with virtually no pressure (one sack in two games that came in the third quarter against NCC with Duke already up 31-0 and ONE other QB hurry). Duke's OL doesn't look like world-beaters, so I'm thinking they might get a bit of a wake-up call facing the likes of Lowry, Gibson, Odenigbo, etc.
  6. Even then, Duke was up 16-0 on a dreadful Tulane team (which got absolutely ROLLED against Georgia Tech 65-10) in the fourth quarter and capitalized on an absolutely laughable special teams gaffe by Tulane deep in their own territory to open up the game and tacked on a KOR TD to make the game look more convincing than it really was.

In any event, here are my thoughts on the game:

  1. I fully anticipate to see Duke trying to run a variety of exotic defensive looks in an attempt to confuse Thorson in his third career start (which is really his second, as EIU didn't exactly present much of a challenge). I hope that our response is to wait until Duke has personnel on the field we like to run against, then we go tempo with our zone-read. Duke's defensive front is rather undersized and they like to roll a lot of guys in to compensate. Let's exploit that to the extent that our OL allows us to do so. Running tempo also limits the looks that a defense can show.
  2. We haven't seen a ton of it yet, but I thought Thorson showed a much better willingness to step up in the pocket and use the middle of the field against EIU. The game will obviously be a lot faster against Duke, but the signs are there that Thorson is at least on the right path in developing as a passer. This will be crucial to take Duke out of its typically-aggressive defensive scheme.
  3. Sirk is a nice looking athlete, but has a LONG LONNNGGG release. If the front four aren't getting it done on their own, I hope we see Hank bring some additional pressure to force Sirk into trying to get rid of the ball quickly. I suspect he hasn't had to make many hot throws against Tulane or NCC and this is a guy who had 14 career pass attempts before this season. Much like I anticipate Duke to test Thorson's decision making ability, let's see what Sirk can do with real live pressure.
  4. Special teams will be crucial, but I don't think we've been as weak as some around here believe. Sure it would be great to book the KO through the end zone every time and hit 55-yard punts, but our coverage hasn't been bad so far. The coverage teams will have to remain on their game as Duke dues have a couple of dangerous return guys, but long returns are typically the result of blown assignments by the coverage team as opposed to truly spectacular plays by the returners. Keep your wits about you, play your assignment, and sell out... you should be fine.

All in all, this is a game that will be very informative about this team's trajectory in 2015. Quite frankly, I'm pretty confident as the Cats head out to Durham. Let's just hope they can back it up on the field.
 
I really like the horizontal range shown by our linebackers thus far. We all know about AWalk, but Prater has been active outside the hashes at times, and Smith can move too. This bodes well for a very mobile QB, provided our guys break down and don't overrun plays.
 
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I would agree whole heartedly with your assessment! I would also like to see the up tempo game from us! Go Cats!
 
Last season, Duke beat 1 team which ended the season with a wining record, a 31-25 win at GaTech, which finished 11-3. That was a good win. Their other wins came against Elon (FCS), and teams with final records of 3-9, 3-9, 3-9, 5-7, 6-7, 3-9, and 3-9. They lost to teams with records 6-7, 7-6, 6-7 and 10-3. So one good win, a good loss to Arizona State in the bowl game, and losses to toss-up teams.
 
Only watched Duke once last season in the bowl against ASU. They lost but they played well enough to win. Well coached and plenty scrappy.

Expect them to stack the box and force Thorson to throw

Expect Cardiac CATS.

But expect victory.
 
Don't agree at all. Their offense looks well ahead of ours, has much more big play potential than we have shown, and it isn't obvious that we will be able to consistently run the ball.. I also wonder of the Duke speed on D is going to pressure Clayton into some bad decisions again, something that could cost us the turnover battle if this opponent can actually hold on to the ball once or twice. The place where we might have the clearest edge is in the trenches. If the O-line improves and the D line stays dominant, our chances are good. However, Duke has the chance to test us with big plays, and we haven't been tested that way yet. If we can limit big plays, get a few of our own, control the trenches, and not lose the turnover battle, we'll probably be fine.

Oh, we've lost to a lot more mediocre teams over the past 2 years than they have. Be careful how you spin 19 wins into a negative. GO CATS, but don't be overconfident.
 
Expect victory!

This will not be an easy game, but I believe in our Defense.
 
Last season, Duke beat 1 team which ended the season with a wining record, a 31-25 win at GaTech, which finished 11-3. That was a good win. Their other wins came against Elon (FCS), and teams with final records of 3-9, 3-9, 3-9, 5-7, 6-7, 3-9, and 3-9. They lost to teams with records 6-7, 7-6, 6-7 and 10-3. So one good win, a good loss to Arizona State in the bowl game, and losses to toss-up teams.

That was last year, when we were 5-7. Duke might be better this year, and we'll find out Saturday if we are.
 
That was last year, when we were 5-7. Duke might be better this year, and we'll find out Saturday if we are.

The point is that Duke built its reputation as a team on the rise by taking advantage of a very weak schedule with a lot of close wins. That point stands.
 
That was last year, when we were 5-7. Duke might be better this year, and we'll find out Saturday if we are.
Or Duke might be worse and we will see Alviti pas for a couple of TDs in an attempt not to run up the score.
 
Been holding off on this one, but can't do it anymore:

  1. Duke doesn't scare me. At all. They've taken advantage of a historically-weak ACC conference and been even luckier by being in the weaker Coastal division.
  2. Cutcliffe gets a whole lot of credit for being a "QB Guru" of sorts, but it doesn't take a genius to coach up Peyton and Eli Manning. It's not like Erik Ainge, Thaddeus Lewis, Sean Renfree, Anthony Boone, or guys of that level have been world-beaters.
  3. I look at what Cutcliffe has done in a similar light to what James Franklin did at Vanderbilt -- he's taken advantage of a very weak conference to push his team forward. They came out on the winning end of a lot of close ballgames in 2013 and 2014 (I count four one-score wins in 2013 and three in 2014 against one regular season one-score loss each in 2013 and 2014). They were absolutely exposed by FSU in the ACC championship game in an absolute laugher against FSU after the 2013 season. I think Cutcliffe is a much better coach than Franklin, but that doesn't make Duke world-beaters.
  4. We've heard all week about Duke's team speed. In the video that I've been able to find, I just flat haven't seen it. It's not hard to look fast playing against Tulane and North Carolina Central. Duke's personnel isn't really anything to be scared of.
  5. Similarly, it's not hard to look like a statistically strong team playing against the likes of Tulane and North Carolina Central, nor is it hard to execute an offense when your QB is operating with virtually no pressure (one sack in two games that came in the third quarter against NCC with Duke already up 31-0 and ONE other QB hurry). Duke's OL doesn't look like world-beaters, so I'm thinking they might get a bit of a wake-up call facing the likes of Lowry, Gibson, Odenigbo, etc.
  6. Even then, Duke was up 16-0 on a dreadful Tulane team (which got absolutely ROLLED against Georgia Tech 65-10) in the fourth quarter and capitalized on an absolutely laughable special teams gaffe by Tulane deep in their own territory to open up the game and tacked on a KOR TD to make the game look more convincing than it really was.

In any event, here are my thoughts on the game:

  1. I fully anticipate to see Duke trying to run a variety of exotic defensive looks in an attempt to confuse Thorson in his third career start (which is really his second, as EIU didn't exactly present much of a challenge). I hope that our response is to wait until Duke has personnel on the field we like to run against, then we go tempo with our zone-read. Duke's defensive front is rather undersized and they like to roll a lot of guys in to compensate. Let's exploit that to the extent that our OL allows us to do so. Running tempo also limits the looks that a defense can show.
  2. We haven't seen a ton of it yet, but I thought Thorson showed a much better willingness to step up in the pocket and use the middle of the field against EIU. The game will obviously be a lot faster against Duke, but the signs are there that Thorson is at least on the right path in developing as a passer. This will be crucial to take Duke out of its typically-aggressive defensive scheme.
  3. Sirk is a nice looking athlete, but has a LONG LONNNGGG release. If the front four aren't getting it done on their own, I hope we see Hank bring some additional pressure to force Sirk into trying to get rid of the ball quickly. I suspect he hasn't had to make many hot throws against Tulane or NCC and this is a guy who had 14 career pass attempts before this season. Much like I anticipate Duke to test Thorson's decision making ability, let's see what Sirk can do with real live pressure.
  4. Special teams will be crucial, but I don't think we've been as weak as some around here believe. Sure it would be great to book the KO through the end zone every time and hit 55-yard punts, but our coverage hasn't been bad so far. The coverage teams will have to remain on their game as Duke dues have a couple of dangerous return guys, but long returns are typically the result of blown assignments by the coverage team as opposed to truly spectacular plays by the returners. Keep your wits about you, play your assignment, and sell out... you should be fine.

All in all, this is a game that will be very informative about this team's trajectory in 2015. Quite frankly, I'm pretty confident as the Cats head out to Durham. Let's just hope they can back it up on the field.
Who said they were world beaters? Duke is a good football team that is good enuf to go to a bowl game again. Plus they are home. There is a reason why we are 3 pt dogs.
But as long as we limit our mistakes i think we have better than equal chances to win. Im expecting vicyory even though it wont come easy if it comes at all. If we win by 20 then that doesnt mean duke sucks. It would mean that we are very very good.
 
Yeah, but they did beat them, and last year is last year. That point also stands.
In the past, NU had a habit of winning those close games. It is only the last couple years where we have been weak. And this year looks like we are more focused and maybe have our mojo back.
 
In the past, NU had a habit of winning those close games. It is only the last couple years where we have been weak. And this year looks like we are more focused and maybe have our mojo back.

Perhaps we do. My whole point over several posts now has been that last year is not a predictor of this year in college football.
 
The point is that Duke built its reputation as a team on the rise by taking advantage of a very weak schedule with a lot of close wins. That point stands.

So did NU in 2012. The schedule wasn't as weak, but we didn't beat any ranked teams either.
 
I thought we beat wisconsin and/or msu in 2012 when they were ranked? Granted msu took a slide after we beat them but i could have swore they were decently ranked when we beat them.

NU didn't play Wisconsin in 2012. MSU started the year ranked and were as high as #10 after their 2nd game but were 5-5 when NU beat 'em.
 
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Good sign today: Teddy Greenstein picks Duke over NU and says the Illini will beat the spread v. UNC. The opposite in both cases have a better chance of happening.

My feel on NU at Duke game is that if NU follows the same blueprint v. Duke as they did v. a 11.5 pt. favorite Stanford, they can beat the Dukies:
1. Play great defense and get off the field on third down;
2. Don't turn the ball over;
3. Run the ball and use the run to set up the pass. Maybe McCall will try the play action pass a little more;
4. Cause turn overs. Maybe we will see more Kyle Quiero and speedy Nate Hall to keep up with the speedy Dukies;
5. The offensive line has to create a push v. undersized defensive line for the Dukies.

Does anyone else find it annoying that ND game gets front page sports coverage in the Chicago Tribune, while the NU game and even the UofI game gets only a capsule preview on page three. Fred Mitchell did pick the 'cats 24-23. ND is not an Illinois team, they are not near Chicago and are a partial member of the ACC and don't want to be known as a midwestern team. In 2012, ND pulled a couple of rabbits out (tripe OT win v. Pitt and many close wins) and played Alabama and got crushed by something like 42-14 v. Alabama. In 2012, NU went 10-3 with three close losses to UM (in OT), UNL - because VanHoose got injured and had one other close loss that I am not recalling right now). Other than that ND had not been in the national championship chase since 1988 when Lou Holtz beat W. Virginia (not a traditional power) for their last championship 25 seasons ago, but Chicago papers still fall over ND all the time. Hopefully, NU keeps winning and someone in the Chicago media notices.
 
Good sign today: Teddy Greenstein picks Duke over NU and says the Illini will beat the spread v. UNC. The opposite in both cases have a better chance of happening.

My feel on NU at Duke game is that if NU follows the same blueprint v. Duke as they did v. a 11.5 pt. favorite Stanford, they can beat the Dukies:
1. Play great defense and get off the field on third down;
2. Don't turn the ball over;
3. Run the ball and use the run to set up the pass. Maybe McCall will try the play action pass a little more;
4. Cause turn overs. Maybe we will see more Kyle Quiero and speedy Nate Hall to keep up with the speedy Dukies;
5. The offensive line has to create a push v. undersized defensive line for the Dukies.

Does anyone else find it annoying that ND game gets front page sports coverage in the Chicago Tribune, while the NU game and even the UofI game gets only a capsule preview on page three. Fred Mitchell did pick the 'cats 24-23. ND is not an Illinois team, they are not near Chicago and are a partial member of the ACC and don't want to be known as a midwestern team. In 2012, ND pulled a couple of rabbits out (tripe OT win v. Pitt and many close wins) and played Alabama and got crushed by something like 42-14 v. Alabama. In 2012, NU went 10-3 with three close losses to UM (in OT), UNL - because VanHoose got injured and had one other close loss that I am not recalling right now). Other than that ND had not been in the national championship chase since 1988 when Lou Holtz beat W. Virginia (not a traditional power) for their last championship 25 seasons ago, but Chicago papers still fall over ND all the time. Hopefully, NU keeps winning and someone in the Chicago media notices.
ND has the fanbase and the eye balls that read the papers. There's a reason why my dad gets a bus of 27 people going to games every week and my friends won't even take free tickets to go to a northwestern game. Hate it all you want, but it's true.

We almost broke through in 2013 going into the OSU game. The city started to have our back. Random sports fans were showing up to watch. Then we fell apart for 2 years and it'll be awhile before we can get that moxy back. A win today will help as it could catapult us to the top 20 and maybe top 15. That'll turn some heads. Notre Dame getting crushed by Gtech and the triple option (always gives them fits) will help too. But until then #8 vs #14 is a bigger story than the cats are #23 and could have a good year.
 
Fanati,,, You've got to realize something huge when it comes to bowl games in the 2K-Teen years. That being: there are 37 post season college bowl games. That's right, 37. That number translates to a whopping 74 college teams who will play in those 37 bowls. Taking into consideration that the NCAA's Division 1A has (from my last count) 129 teams in its stable, that means that more than half of the 129 total college football programs will be invited to a post-season bowl. Talk about diluting a product... the NCAA and bowl sponsors are the poster-children for such obvious, dubious money-making ventures. My point is... Beating 5 bowl teams during the regular season really doesn't mean much now-a-days. In fact, it means much less than "not much."
 
My point is... Beating 5 bowl teams during the regular season rally doesn't mean much now-a-days. In fact, it means much less than "not much."

But using the same logic, beating only 1 bowl team means you played a pretty easy schedule.....
 
Very true... even beating 3 or 4 bowl team means doodily-squat. To me it's all about record against ranked teams - and I'm talking about 1 thru 30 (not the 1-25) in the AP media poll. As for the coaches poll, it's been know for years that the HCs of major programs no longer even glance at that poll and pass-off the responsibility to vote to their assistants or worse still, to the Athletic Dept.
 
As for the coaches poll, it's been know for years that the HCs of major programs no longer even glance at that poll and pass-off the responsibility to vote to their assistants or worse still, to the Athletic Dept.

I'd almost argue this makes the poll better because those guys would be more likely to watch other games and stuff. It's just not what it says it is, which is a poll of head coaches.
 
A lot of bowl games are geared toward getting the lesser conference some coverage. It is why the Sunbelt has 5/6 bowl agreements when maybe one team is ranked in the top 30. But if you look at the B1G bowls, most are against legitimate ranked teams or very good I ranked teams. So, overall the argument that a bowl doesn't mean much may be true, for us it is has been very meaningful games. Yes Auburn was 6-6 ( or 7-5) going into that game but that game was watched by a ton of people nationally.
 
Very true... even beating 3 or 4 bowl team means doodily-squat. To me it's all about record against ranked teams - and I'm talking about 1 thru 30 (not the 1-25) in the AP media poll. As for the coaches poll, it's been know for years that the HCs of major programs no longer even glance at that poll and pass-off the responsibility to vote to their assistants or worse still, to the Athletic Dept.
Sorry but that is stupid! Bowl teams are at least average teams and beating average teams makes you better than average. Half the teams lose every week and you want your program to be in the winning half. Beating non bowl teams may mean doodily squat because you are beating losers, but beating teams that can win some games is a good thing.
 
Very true... even beating 3 or 4 bowl team means doodily-squat. To me it's all about record against ranked teams - and I'm talking about 1 thru 30 (not the 1-25) in the AP media poll. As for the coaches poll, it's been know for years that the HCs of major programs no longer even glance at that poll and pass-off the responsibility to vote to their assistants or worse still, to the Athletic Dept.

What should matter is beating teams that are ranked at the end of the season (and those getting votes).
 
^ Sure, but if they were good, should still win enough games to at least get votes; the 'Cats beat the Badgers last year and they finished ranked and ND still got votes.
 
Good sign today: Teddy Greenstein picks Duke over NU and says the Illini will beat the spread v. UNC. The opposite in both cases have a better chance of happening.

My feel on NU at Duke game is that if NU follows the same blueprint v. Duke as they did v. a 11.5 pt. favorite Stanford, they can beat the Dukies:
1. Play great defense and get off the field on third down;
2. Don't turn the ball over;
3. Run the ball and use the run to set up the pass. Maybe McCall will try the play action pass a little more;
4. Cause turn overs. Maybe we will see more Kyle Quiero and speedy Nate Hall to keep up with the speedy Dukies;
5. The offensive line has to create a push v. undersized defensive line for the Dukies.

D.

4 for 5. Not bad at all!
 
We beat 5 bowl teams in 2012. Duke beat 1 bowl team in 2014.

Duke beat 2 bowl teams in 2014 (Pitt and Ga Tech). I was wrong about Duke not beating a ranked team...Duke beat #8 GaTech (11-3) last year while NU never beat a ranked team in 2012. NU had a tougher schedule (like I mentioned), but it's best win, in terms of opponent records, was against 9-4 Vandy.
 
Duke beat 2 bowl teams in 2014 (Pitt and Ga Tech). I was wrong about Duke not beating a ranked team...Duke beat #8 GaTech (11-3) last year while NU never beat a ranked team in 2012. NU had a tougher schedule (like I mentioned), but it's best win, in terms of opponent records, was against 9-4 Vandy.

Wasn't Miss State ranked when we beat them?
 
He usually does. We did not see a bunch of sacks yesterday, but generally kept a lot of pressure on Sirk. The front four played quite well, especially Lowry, whom I think was robbed of a TD on that screen pass he knocked down.
After seeing the replay, the refs got it right.
 
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