Final Top 25 - B1G vs SEC

[GlideCat]

Six SEC teams in the final Top 25: Alabama (4), Georgia (9), Miss State (11), Missouri (14), Ole Miss (17), Auburn (22)

Three B1G teams; OSU (1), MSU (5 tie), and Wisconsin (13)

Do you think they got it right?

I think that several SEC teams are ranked too high relative to how they were playing at the end of the season. That being said, I appreciate that the overall season seems to being taken into account.

However, I feel that Alabama, Miss State, and Ole Miss are being overvalued based on wins in the SEC West. The true value of these wins should now be at least questioned based on the bowl record and performance of these teams. Between the three of them they had two OOC wins that even registered (Ole Miss over Boise State and Alabama over West Virginia). Without the belief that the SEC West was the best division in college football, their overall body of work is questionable.

But then again... I hate Alabama (bias alert).

 

[SmellyCat]

Originally posted by GlideCat:


But then again... I hate Alabama (bias alert).

GlideCat - I have to say that one of my favorite things to read on this site are your anti-SEC comments.

These rankings seem relatively fair, though it's clear to me that the Mississippi teams weren't as good as we thought a few months ago. I have no problem with Alabama being fourth. They didn't get destroyed in the semis like Florida State did and even if the SEC was overrated, it was still pretty damn good. Missouri seems about right - their body of work seems about on par with Wisconsin's (complete with a loss to a below-average Big Ten team). Georgia at #9 seems a tad high, but they won their bowl game. I dunno, I guess it's fair. Maybe.

 

[NJCat83588]

Seems about right.

More surprising to me is TCU at #3. I don't understand how the 5th best team before the playoffs moves up. Seems like by definition OSU, Oregon, FSU and Bama are all Top 4 teams, win or lose in the playoffs. I mean, 2 of the 4 had to lose, you can't penalize them for that. Just goes to show (once again) just how stupid the whole polling process is and why a playoff of at least 4 teams is necessary to determine the Champion.

 

[GlideCat]

I have no problem with TCU jumping FSU. You have to give and take points on the way teams play in the bowls. FSU got beaten up and TCU dominated in their bowl game against a team that beat Alabama. Yes, I am going transitive here but why not?

Especially given the idea that TCU did not get the chance to prove what they could do in the play-offs due to voting and perception.

Throw them a bone.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Personally, I think TCU is a really good team and can make a strong case for #3. Their dismantling of Ole Miss spoke volumes.

 

[NJCat83588]

Well, then they should be #2, since FSU, Bama and Oregon all lost. And Oregon lost badly.

 

[NJCat83588]

The game meant nothing to Ole Miss. TCU was on a mission to show they were screwed. But the process is, the top 4 teams get into the finals. Everyone else is fighting for 5th place and down.


Polls are for losers. Win the game on the field. OSU won 14 straight. Everyone else is a loser.

 

[chariots]

For a long time during the season the SEC West was perfect against all other conferences and also against the SEC East. (Little wonder ranking systems, human and computer alike drool over that).

Then you get a poor bowl season and its a pretty hard question on what is the real SEC West.

I don't think the Big Ten has much gripe. Let's be honest while the top of the Big Ten availed itself quite nicely the middle of the conference was entirely pedestrian.

For comparison my computer ranking system is quite close to that of the AP Poll and since it is purely mathematical it does not have any preconceived notions of superiority.

1. Ohio State
2. Oregon
3. Texas Christian
4. Alabama
5. Michigan State
6. Georgia
7. Baylor
8. Mississippi
9. Florida State
10. Mississippi State
11. Georgia Tech
12. Auburn
13. Marshall
14. UCLA
15. Clemson
16. Arkansas
17. Wisconsin
18. Missouri
19. Kansas State
20. Boise State
21. Southern Cal
22. Arizona State
23. Arizona
24. Louisiana State
25. Stanford

So I have Arkansas also in the Top 25. "Receiving votes" for my system would include Texas A&M, Nebraska, Florida, Minnesota and Tennessee. I don't see much (any) evidence the SEC is over-valued still.

 

[LeftyLarry]

Yet you have Auburn over Wisconsin after Wisconsin beat them New Year's Day.

 

[chariots]

I kind of hate this type of response Lefty so I'll spell out the realities of a ranking system.

There does not exist a ranking in which all higher seeds beat all lower seeds. Certainly not one when Virginia Tech beat Ohio State and Wake Forest beat Virginia Tech.

In fact the best you can do is be wrong 14% of the time. Zero is impossible.

I try to find the implied strength of each team to maximize the likelihood of college football's results. The math is in a nice elegant form and it has proven to be good at explaining the past and moderately good at predicting the future. (Often when one succeeds the other fails).

To calculate that I include all data, no matter if it is wildly divergent ... such as winning on New Year's day yet losing a game 59-0 or losing to Northwestern.

With all that data maybe 6 things point to Auburn as a better team and 4 things point to Wisconsin. That could leave my model to say Auburn has a 54% chance of beating Wisconsin. That does not mean they have to win. They lost, 34-31 in OT ... which is a totally reasonable possibility for two closely ranked teams.

 

[StreamCat]

Lefty is right.