First round prognostication.

[T_Levine]

Yes there is a chance we go off the next three weeks and somehow get a 6 seed or go really crazy and get a 5 seed or go bonkers and win the Big Ten tournament and get a 4 seed but let’s be realistic.

We will be a 7-10 seed

7-10 games

1 each in denver Greensboro Sacramento and Dea Moines

8-9 games

2 in Birmingham
1 each in Columbus and Sacramento

Travel arrangements anyone

 

[SmellyCat]

I didn't know the seeds were already tied to locations. I know that if a 1 goes somewhere, the 8/9/16 go there as well, but I wasn't sure it had been decided which locations each 1 goes to.

Since I'm rooting for Columbus, I guess i want 8/9 seed. I've seen some optimistic bracketologists already saying 6 though, so if NU keeps the heat on, they could end up there. I think the most optimistic final spot if they keep playing well but drop a few would be 7, with 8/9 probably being more likely. But let's just keep winning.

 

[ricko654321]

I didn't know the seeds were already tied to locations. I know that if a 1 goes somewhere, the 8/9/16 go there as well, but I wasn't sure it had been decided which locations each 1 goes to.

Since I'm rooting for Columbus, I guess i want 8/9 seed. I've seen some optimistic bracketologists already saying 6 though, so if NU keeps the heat on, they could end up there. I think the most optimistic final spot if they keep playing well but drop a few would be 7, with 8/9 probably being more likely. But let's just keep winning.

I don't think they are. The original poster just looked at a single bracket I'm guessing. But as you say they are tied to the top 4 seed in each grouping. The 1 seeds get first preference on closest locations, then the 2 seeds, etc on down. There is an element to which I imagine they are trying to minimize travel for all teams (so on occasion they might shift a 5-16 seed a bit closer to home if they are on the same line in the seeding ladder), but most likely you are being driven by whatever 1-4 seed you get paired with.

We aren't in yet, we need to keep winning. But I admit I looked at the potential locations earlier today.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

I don't think they are. The original poster just looked at a single bracket I'm guessing. But as you say they are tied to the top 4 seed in each grouping. The 1 seeds get first preference on closest locations, then the 2 seeds, etc on down. There is an element to which I imagine they are trying to minimize travel for all teams (so on occasion they might shift a 5-16 seed a bit closer to home if they are on the same line in the seeding ladder), but most likely you are being driven by whatever 1-4 seed you get paired with.

We aren't in yet, we need to keep winning. But I admit I looked at the potential locations earlier today.

I’ve seen the actual games listed. OP is correct. Will find the link and update this response.

UPDATE: Games that are played in the same city do not necessarily correspond to the same regional. I showed dates by seeds and that was an error on my part.

Thursday/Saturday
Birmingham
Des Moines
Sacramento
Orlando
Friday/Sunday
Columbus
Greensboro
Denver
Albany

 

[T_Levine]

I don't think they are. The original poster just looked at a single bracket I'm guessing. But as you say they are tied to the top 4 seed in each grouping. The 1 seeds get first preference on closest locations, then the 2 seeds, etc on down. There is an element to which I imagine they are trying to minimize travel for all teams (so on occasion they might shift a 5-16 seed a bit closer to home if they are on the same line in the seeding ladder), but most likely you are being driven by whatever 1-4 seed you get paired with.

We aren't in yet, we need to keep winning. But I admit I looked at the potential locations earlier today.

All of the games with seedlings are set. It only takes a simple google to find all of the information.

 

[IMC Cat]

How can one location have two 8 vs 9 matchups? Wouldn't Birmingham be tied to a region? Presumably the South region and thus only have one 8 vs 9 seed matchup?

 

[gradeck]

There is no rule that dictates that specific first round sites get specific pods. And there can be two pods in the same first round city that feed different regional finals.

Rather, it is a function of the teams that have the #1/#2 seeds, who have first geographic preference.

Take a look at Jerry Palm (CBS)’s current projections (updated this morning, 2/13). He has Kansas (Des Moines), Alabama (Birmingham), Purdue (Columbus), and Texas (Birmingham) as the projected 1 seeds.

By contrast, Joe Lunardi (ESPN)’s projections were last updated Friday, 2/10. He has Purdue (Columbus), Alabama (Birmingham), Arizona (Sacramento) and Houston (Birmingham) as his projected 1 seeds.

—-
Now, I agree the Wildcats are likeliest to be a 7-10 seed, but which exact regions host the 1/8/9/16 and 2/7/10/15 pods are not set yet, because the 1 and 2 seeds are not set yet.

 

[ricko654321]

I’ve seen the actual games listed. OP is correct. Will find the link and update this response.

UPDATE: Games that are played in the same city do not necessarily correspond to the same regional.

Thursday/Saturday
Birmingham has 2 games (both 8/9)
Des Moines (7/10)
Sacramento has 2 games (7/10, 8/9)
Friday/Sunday
Columbus (8/9)
Greensboro (7/10)
Denver (7/10)

If that's true, then how do you explain why different Bracketology projections (e.g. look at Lunardi from ESPN and then Bennett from The Athletic) have different locations assigned to different seed groupings? Do you not think that people whose literal job it is to put out these projections would know the location rules?

You are correct that the days associated with each site are pre-assigned.
- Thurs/Sat is Birmingham, Des Moines, Orlando, Sacramento
- Fri/Sunday is Albany, Columbus, Denver, Greensboro

But the seeds are not pre-assigned. Certain places are more likely to go with certain numbers right now - e.g. as long as Alabama and Houston stay on the 1 line then they will likely go to Birmingham so that is a likely destination for an 8/9 seed. Columbus will also likely have an 8/9 group given Purdue seems likely to get a 1. Arizona is listed as the 4th 1 seed right now and should get at least a 2, meaning they bring with a 8/9 or 7/10 combo - I might have thought they would go to Denver but both Lunardi and Bennett have them going to Sacramento (maybe bc there aren't as many west coast teams as top 4 seeds) and I'm inclined to trust them. For 2 seeds right now (and associated 7/10) the likely pairings are Texas and Baylor (look likely to go to Denver), Tennessee (Greensboro), UCLA (Sacramento), and Kansas (Des Moines) as of now.

But none of those are pre-assigned seed pairings, it is subject to change based on which teams end up on the 1 and 2 seed lines - which can and almost certainly will change before season's end.

My lead candidate would be Denver personally, followed by Columbus and Greensboro (Friday/Sunday would be better). After that probably Orlando, then Albany for location (I live in NYC). Then Sacramento, and Birmingham Des Moines bringing up the rear.

It goes without saying, but we still need to win a couple more games to secure our spot. IU up next. Let's go Cats.

 

[ricko654321]

How can one location have two 8 vs 9 matchups? Wouldn't Birmingham be tied to a region? Presumably the South region and thus only have one 8 vs 9 seed matchup?

The pods are also not tied to any specific region. Haven't been for like 10 years I think - the NCAA smartly decided that it was better to allow more flexibility as only the 1 seeds are really located based on region - after that it is more based on the order you are on the seed ladder. They try to pair 1 overall with 8 overall (the weakest 1 seed), 2 overall with 7 etc etc etc. Although I strongly suspect sometimes they mix that up a bit to make for better marquee matchups - particularly down the line when they are setting 6 vs 11, 7 vs 10, 8 vs 9 first round matchups.

 

[ricko654321]

There is no rule that dictates that specific first round sites get specific pods. And there can be two pods in the same first round city that feed different regional finals.

Rather, it is a function of the teams that have the #1/#2 seeds, who have first geographic preference.

Take a look at Jerry Palm (CBS)’s current projections (updated this morning, 2/13). He has Kansas (Des Moines), Alabama (Birmingham), Purdue (Columbus), and Texas (Birmingham) as the projected 1 seeds.

By contrast, Joe Lunardi (ESPN)’s projections were last updated Friday, 2/10. He has Purdue (Columbus), Alabama (Birmingham), Arizona (Sacramento) and Houston (Birmingham) as his projected 1 seeds.

—-
Now, I agree the Wildcats are likeliest to be a 7-10 seed, but which exact regions host the 1/8/9/16 and 2/7/10/15 pods are not set yet, because the 1 and 2 seeds are not set yet.

Yeah, you get it at least... feel like many people are incorrectly informed on how this works though. We basically wrote different versions of the same message, you looking at CBS vs ESPN while I was looking at ESPN vs The Athletic.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

If that's true, then how do you explain why different Bracketology projections (e.g. look at Lunardi from ESPN and then Bennett from The Athletic) have different locations assigned to different seed groupings? Do you not think that people whose literal job it is to put out these projections would know the location rules?

You are correct that the days associated with each site are pre-assigned.
- Thurs/Sat is Birmingham, Des Moines, Orlando, Sacramento
- Fri/Sunday is Albany, Columbus, Denver, Greensboro

But the seeds are not pre-assigned. Certain places are more likely to go with certain numbers right now - e.g. as long as Alabama and Houston stay on the 1 line then they will likely go to Birmingham so that is a likely destination for an 8/9 seed. Columbus will also likely have an 8/9 group given Purdue seems likely to get a 1. Arizona is listed as the 4th 1 seed right now and should get at least a 2, meaning they bring with a 8/9 or 7/10 combo - I might have thought they would go to Denver but both Lunardi and Bennett have them going to Sacramento (maybe bc there aren't as many west coast teams as top 4 seeds) and I'm inclined to trust them. For 2 seeds right now (and associated 7/10) the likely pairings are Texas and Baylor (look likely to go to Denver), Tennessee (Greensboro), UCLA (Sacramento), and Kansas (Des Moines) as of now.

But none of those are pre-assigned seed pairings, it is subject to change based on which teams end up on the 1 and 2 seed lines - which can and almost certainly will change before season's end.

My lead candidate would be Denver personally, followed by Columbus and Greensboro (Friday/Sunday would be better). After that probably Orlando, then Albany for location (I live in NYC). Then Sacramento, and Birmingham Des Moines bringing up the rear.

It goes without saying, but we still need to win a couple more games to secure our spot. IU up next. Let's go Cats.

I stand by my research. You can too.

 

[gradeck]

Arizona is listed as the 4th 1 seed right now and should get at least a 2, meaning they bring with a 8/9 or 7/10 combo - I might have thought they would go to Denver but both Lunardi and Bennett have them going to Sacramento (maybe bc there aren't as many west coast teams as top 4 seeds) and I'm inclined to trust them.

The geographic preference rule is based on driving distance from campus to venue. Tucson is actually closer to Sacramento than Denver (per Google maps).

 

[SmellyCat]

Just an example...

If Purdue gets a 1 seed and Columbus, NU won't get to go there as part of Purdue's pod (as an 8/9), since the committee won't want yesterday's matchup again until both teams are in the Final Four.

But there's no reason there isn't some 2-seed out there from a different region that could also get Columbus, and the 7/10 that goes with it could be NU. Or a #3 could go there, and NU could be the #6 seed that takes them down in the second round. There's no law that says Columbus can only have all the teams in Purdue's region on their side of the bracket. It could happen, but it doesn't have to.

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

I stand by my research. You can too.

And as I read more it looks like you’re right!

 

[gradeck]

I will add that just because we cannot be 100% sure of the exact location does not mean we cannot make some educated guesses.

There are a lot of potential #1/#2 seeds for which Birmingham is the closest site (Alabama, Texas, Baylor, Houston, Tennessee (?)). That’s a city with an above-average likelihood of a 7-10 seed NU playing there.

By contrast, there is a very low likelihood of a #1/#2 seed preferring Albany or Orlando. For the ‘Cats to play in those cities, they’d probably need a 3-6 seed (or fall to 11).

 

[Secho99]

I stand by my research. You can too.

The seeding of the games in each city are not set in stone until selection day, even though specific teams are very likely to play in certain cities due to proximity. Case in point: Before Arizona lost to Stanford this weekend they were widely projected as a No. 1 seed that would play in Sacramento in a 1-16/8-9 pod and Kansas was a No. 2 that would play in Des Moines in a 2-15/7-10 pod.

But now that Kansas and Arizona have flipped likely seeds, Sacramento would still host Arizona but in a 2-15/7-10 pod and Des Moines would have the 1-16/8-9 pod with Kansas. That essentially "moves" an 8-9 game from Sacramento to Des Moines and a 7-10 game from Des Moines to Sacramento.

 

[ricko654321]

I will add that just because we cannot be 100% sure of the exact location does not mean we cannot make some educated guesses.

There are a lot of potential #1/#2 seeds for which Birmingham is the closest site (Alabama, Texas, Baylor, Houston, Tennessee (?)). That’s a city with an above-average likelihood of a 7-10 seed NU playing there.

By contrast, there is a very low likelihood of a #1/#2 seed preferring Albany or Orlando. For the ‘Cats to play in those cities, they’d probably need a 3-6 seed (or fall to 11).

Yeah - as of now Birmingham, Denver, Sacramento look like the most likely destinations, if (i) we do enough to make the tourney, and (ii) our performace keeps us in the 7-10 range. Des Moines and Greensboro in the next tier due to Kansas and Tennessee. Albany, Orlando, Columbus least likely (because Purdue would be the host of the most likely 1 seed grouping there - I don't think they are 100% prevented from putting us in the same pod as I've seen it for 3/6/11 groups with teams in the play-in, but I think they'd try hard to avoid it, particularly with Purdue as the 1 seed).

 

[gradeck]

Columbus least likely (because Purdue would be the host of the most likely 1 seed grouping there - I don't think they are 100% prevented from putting us in the same pod as I've seen it for 3/6/11 groups with teams in the play-in, but I think they'd try hard to avoid it, particularly with Purdue as the 1 seed).

My understanding is that there is a general rule that only one team per conference can be in a pod, unless 9+ teams from a single conference make the tournament.

Jerry Palm’s current projection (as of today) has Rutgers as the #9 seed in the same Columbus pod as Purdue. (His projection has Wisconsin in, giving the Big Ten 9 teams).

Columbus could also happen if Xavier improved to a #2 seed. Not a lot of other top teams would want Columbus (and we certainly don’t see Indiana anywhere near a #2 seed after they lose Thursday).

 

[gradeck]

Early predictions in this thread are no longer valid.

NU as a 4-6 seed would seem to have a much higher chance of Greensboro, Albany, Orlando, and — unfortunately — Sacramento.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Yes there is a chance we go off the next three weeks and somehow get a 6 seed or go really crazy and get a 5 seed or go bonkers and win the Big Ten tournament and get a 4 seed but let’s be realistic.

We will be a 7-10 seed

7-10 games

1 each in denver Greensboro Sacramento and Dea Moines

8-9 games

2 in Birmingham
1 each in Columbus and Sacramento

Travel arrangements anyone

Let’s be realistic.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Early predictions in this thread are no longer valid.

NU as a 4-6 seed would seem to have a much higher chance of Greensboro, Albany, Orlando, and — unfortunately — Sacramento.

NCAA loves a good story. Boo’s return to Albany. Book it! Saw us projected as 6 seed vs. Princeton.

 

[SmellyCat]

NCAA loves a good story. Boo’s return to Albany. Book it! Saw us projected as 6 seed vs. Princeton.

I think the Princeton one you saw was a fault of weird formatting on that page. I saw the same thing...except Princeton was the #14 (playing a #3, I think Marquette), while NU was a six playing the 11 right below it. Even still, it would've been a potential second-round matchup instead.

I like the Albany storyline, and I would rather go to Albany than Orlando or Sacramento.

 

[NJCat]

I like the Albany storyline, and I would rather go to Albany than Orlando or Sacramento.

Greensboro. 23,000 seat arena, tickets would sell for $6 on the secondary market and it's 35 minutes from my home.

 

[RhabdoWildcat]

Early predictions in this thread are no longer valid.

NU as a 4-6 seed would seem to have a much higher chance of Greensboro, Albany, Orlando, and — unfortunately — Sacramento.

Im dreaming of Sacramento. Already have a hotel booked there.

 

[T_Levine]

Early predictions in this thread are no longer valid.

NU as a 4-6 seed would seem to have a much higher chance of Greensboro, Albany, Orlando, and — unfortunately — Sacramento.

Depends on what side of the country you live. Lol. Sacramento might be the least expensive of those four.

 

[gradeck]

Sacramento would be the most travel for the team and the majority of its fans. Hence, it’s the least desirable option.

 

[SmellyCat]

It's funny that as recently as six days ago, we were talking about NU as a likely 7 or 10 seed, and now I'm thinking win the next seven and get to play the 7/10 winner in the second round!