Gaines Gone

[Sec.112]

Uhhh, yes? I mean it’s clear by now that a HOF coach is what it takes to consistently succeed at NU. Other schools have gotten HOF coaches, there’s probably at least 10 of them coaching at any given time plus some more that will eventually reveal themselves to be that same quality that we don’t know of yet ... It’s not as impossible as you make it out to be.

a) I'm not arguing it takes a HoF coach. The right fit is not necessarily a HoFer. I'm just establishing some of the conventional wisdom.

b) If it's so easy to hire a HoF coach, I'd like to see your list of programs who hired a coach since 2005 who you can even make an argument for the HoF.

Allow me to offer you the low bar of that list - Bruce Weber ... 480 wins. He was hired by KSU in 2012.

This year there are 49 coaching positions available so far. And it's suppose to be a low year due to the pandemic. So let's say there are 35 available positions every year. That's 560 jobs on the low end that have been available since 2005. How many can you point to and say, "Sure that guy should get some consideration for the HoF."

 

[peatymeanis]

a) I'm not arguing it takes a HoF coach. The right fit is not necessarily a HoFer. I'm just establishing some of the conventional wisdom.

b) If it's so easy to hire a HoF coach, I'd like to see your list of programs who hired a coach since 2005 who you can even make an argument for the HoF.

Allow me to offer you the low bar of that list - Bruce Weber ... 480 wins. He was hired by KSU in 2012.

This year there are 49 coaching positions available so far. And it's suppose to be a low year due to the pandemic. So let's say there are 35 available positions every year. That's 560 jobs on the low end that have been available since 2005. How many can you point to and say, "Sure that guy should get some consideration for the HoF."

Isn’t every school that doesn’t have such a coach trying to find one? What exactly is different about NU here? And what is your proposal exactly? That we not try because it’s difficult? I mean, ok

 

[GatoLouco]

Why are we so hung up on the HOF thing? That was supposed to be hyperbole. Not literal.

I just spent 1/2 hour researching to give you a brief history of Stanford basketball. Mike Montgomery is not in the HOF and, in all likeliness, never will be. He also was hired out of... Montana?

 

[peatymeanis]

Why are we so hung up on the HOF thing? That was supposed to be hyperbole. Not literal.

I just spent 1/2 hour researching to give you a brief history of Stanford basketball. Mike Montgomery is not in the HOF and, in all likeliness, never will be. He also was hired out of... Montana?

It’s a great point about Montgomery. In fact I wish we would have hired a former Stanford AD to advise our AD search committee. Instead we got ****ing Michael Wilbon

 

[Sec.112]

Why are we so hung up on the HOF thing? That was supposed to be hyperbole. Not literal.

Don't ask me. I'm not the one who thought it was "clear by now that a HOF coach is what it takes to consistently succeed at NU."

It sure doesn't sound like hyperbole to me.

 

[Sec.112]

Going back 40 seasons, excluding Montgomery:
1) Made tournament 4 out of 22 seasons
2) Had 4 coaches in 22 seasons: Tom Davies (4), Trent Johnson (4), Johnny Dawkins (8) and Jerod Haase (6 and counting)
3) Average tenure for above mentioned coaches: 5.5 years. Jerod Haase is still employed but a quick search reveals his seat is getting pretty hot.

So there you go, a true comparable. Conclusions:
1) We are, without a doubt, soooooooooooooo much more patient with coaches
2) Going back 44 seasons to Rich Falk, our average tenure for coaches: 7.3 years
3) Going back 22 seasons, when we really became patient: 11 years, and counting up
4) We have an inferiority complex that makes us believe we will not find our Montgomery. So we wait and wait, instead of keep trying to find him/her
5) Pound the rock baby

I agree Stanford is the best comp, but you can't simply dismiss Montgomery. It gives Stanford an advantage that so many other big programs have on NU - evidence that you might see a tournament consistently.

Also, one of your other conclusions is misleading. Stanford didn't need to be patient with Davis and Johnson. Davis left for Iowa and Johnson left for LSU. So Dawkins and Haase are within the Collins range that we're talking.

Dawkins served after the historic Montgomery run as well as Johnson making the tournament three out of his four years. And he was still given eight years.

Lastly, can we stop with the silliness that we don't believe we can't find our guy. And let's stop pretending CC has some large contingent of supporters out here who see no problems. Save those conclusions for some bad sport talkradio call. It does nothing for the discussion or finding a real answer to a complex challenge.

The point of my wasted time today is that it's not ANYWHERE as easy as naive fans want to make it out to be to be successful (key word) at this gig. There's a complexity to it and if you ignore it, and treat this like any other job, you'll drive the value of the program even lower.

 

[willycat]

Why not? Isn't that, ultimately, what every programs dreams of?

In most cases coaches are not hired knowing that's what they'll become. With few exceptions (Roy Williams or Pitino for example).

Coaches make a name for themselves. Calhoun (there's an NU connection, go ahead have at it) was not hired at UConn knowing he'd become a HOF coach. Coach K was not hired from Army knowing he'd go into the hall.

Why have this inferiority complex that we can't hire a guy who goes on to become a HOF coach?

PS-We've had an HOF coach

Did you happen to notice who Loyola and DePaul had to settle for?

 

[Catreporter]

And you know this how? Until recently, Vandy had been a solid program. Stanford has made some runs. Again, not asking for BIG championships, just trying to finish middle of the pack regularly and top half every now and again.

Football players cant leave for the pros until they finish three years so they are going to have to "play school." Many more basketball players classify as academic risks so the recruiting pool is smaller for schools who actually have to recruit "student-athletes." Vandy doesn't have the standards NU has and Stanford is Stanford with a gorgeous campus in a better climate and a national reputation far exceeding NU. And even then, their success has been very sporadic.

 

[GatoLouco]

I agree Stanford is the best comp, but you can't simply dismiss Montgomery. It gives Stanford an advantage that so many other big programs have on NU - evidence that you might see a tournament consistently.

Also, one of your other conclusions is misleading also. Stanford didn't need to be patient with Davis and Johnson. Davis left for Iowa and Johnson left for LSU. So Dawkins and Haase are within the Collins range that we're talking.

Dawkins served after the historic Montgomery run as well as Johnson making the tournament three out of his four years. And he was still given eight years.

But let's stop with the silliness that we don't believe we can't find our guy. That's just a sports talkradio meathead conclusion. The point is that it's not ANYWHERE as easy naive fans want to make it out to be. There's a complexity to this gig that if you ignore it, and treat this like any other job, you'll drive the value of the program even lower.

Every "statistical" analysis has some issues. You have to dismiss Montgomery. Otherwise Stanford actually looks like a blue blood. And when you do, they still look so much better than us.

I understand what you are saying about Davis and Johnson.

Davis was not setting the world on fire at a 25-47 conference record. So, left? not going to go deeper, but sounds like a very worthy assumption of a Shaka Smart(ish) situation. Still did fine at IA

Johnson was doing very well at 48-27. Made the tournament in 3 out of 4 years at Stanford. Took over a very good program left by Montgomery. To go crash and burn at LSU and TCU.

Leaving Johnson or Davis in skews the average tenure down. Sure. If Kevin O'Neil wasn't such a disaster of a human being maybe he'd have coached us for 13 years. A la Carmody. This way he skews our average tenure with his 3 years at the helm. How bad does one have to be to last 3 years at NU. Anomaly, but still counted his tenure.

If you want analyze just the last two coaches. Stanford is at an average tenure of 7 years, we are at 11. Both programs have, arguable, coaches on the hot seat. Going into a likely make or break season.

 

[GatoLouco]

Did you happen to notice who Loyola and DePaul had to settle for?

Not sure what your point is. As usual

 

[SDakaGordie]

The point of all of this is you can’t dismiss (as excuses, BS, whatever) our academic requirements. It plays a role today in everything and has forever. Calhoun didn’t know he was a future HOF coach at UConn, but what’s important and relevant to us is that he certainly knew he was not going to be at NU. Our expectations of finding a coach that can even make us win more than we lose are and have to be, as much as we hate to like or accept it, much lower as a result of these requirements and resulting history.

 

[Sec.112]

One more thing to end the day ... and hopefully this part of the discussion.

I came up with 13 coaches below who have been hired since 2005 who have HoF potential. I'm sure I missed some, and I'm sure many won't agree some with all the choices. I'm not here to argue who belongs in the Hall.

So let's increase it by five and call it 18 guys who have been hired since 2005 who might be considered for the HoF. And I think my list is EXTREMELY generous.

That's out of my low-end estimate of 560 openings (35 openings/year x 15 years). That's a generous 3% of hirings with HoF potential.

Instead of aiming for the generous three percent, I would hope (and assume) NU considers coaching tendencies, attributes and adaptability rather than end-of-a-career potential. The one thing that stands out to me about each one of these guys is a feature I've preached for a long time - every one of them held a previous D1 head coaching job. And I believe McCaffery is the only one who didn't have P6 head coaching experience.

The next step is to overpay because there's going to be an awful lot of coaches who want nothing to do with NU. Market value isn't going to cut for a majority of coaches with good D1 experience.

Those would be two distinct differences compared to past NU coaching searches.

Tony Bennett, Psycho McCaffery, Lon Kruger (we'll keep him on the list to be generous), Bruce Weber, Calapari, Painter, Pitino Sr., Rick Barnes, Huggins, Altman, Sampson and Turgeon. I'm also going to include Beilein on this list since he's rumored headed for 'Zona. (Damn. I was hoping NU would be his end-of-career charity work. Arizona jumped to the front of that line.)

 

[curdog]

Football players cant leave for the pros until they finish three years so they are going to have to "play school." Many more basketball players classify as academic risks so the recruiting pool is smaller for schools who actually have to recruit "student-athletes." Vandy doesn't have the standards NU has and Stanford is Stanford with a gorgeous campus in a better climate and a national reputation far exceeding NU. And even then, their success has been very sporadic.

So you don’t know bball players value the NU degree less than football players.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

So you don’t know bball players value the NU degree less than football players.

I love it when people state their opinions as facts (and mock others for not knowing these "facts").
Please post your evidence.
If you were kidding, then you have to make it more obvious.

 

[willycat]

Not sure what your point is. As usual

Maybe you need to understand that likely no one on these boards would cheering loudly if either of those coaches were working at NU.

 

[GatoLouco]

Maybe you need to understand that likely no one on these boards would cheering loudly if either of those coaches were working at NU.

I would not be excited. As a semi Gopher fan, not excited about Ben Johnson either.

But still don't get your point. Do you know if they will bomb or not? Were they hired by NU?

I will repeat a question posed above by another poster. What is the alternative? Stop trying?

 

[curdog]

I love it when people state their opinions as facts (and mock others for not knowing these "facts").
Please post your evidence.
If you were kidding, then you have to make it more obvious.

Did you reply to the wrong post? I have no idea if basketball players view the prestige of an NU degree less than football players. The post I was replying to stated it as fact.

What is a fact is that NU’s football coach has said repeatedly that the value of an NU degree is a huge asset in recruiting. So it’s an asset for recruiting football players but effectively worthless when recruiting basketball players? Doesn’t sound right.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

Did you reply to the wrong post? I have no idea if basketball players view the prestige of an NU degree less than football players. The post I was replying to stated it as fact.

What is a fact is that NU’s football coach has said repeatedly that the value of an NU degree is a huge asset in recruiting. So it’s an asset for recruiting football players but effectively worthless when recruiting basketball players? Doesn’t sound right.

Well football players are far more concerned about injuries given the sport they play. So degree helps with that and guaranteed scholarship once you commit.

Also in basketball the top kids who aren’t even D1 talent get told they’re the greatest thing since sliced bread and will make the league. Coaches parents etc. Just be a D2 caliber athlete play basketball your whole life and have the wrong coaches and/or parents and you can see it. Let alone if you’re a top 200 prospect and have multiple schools offering you money and coaches texting and calling you. The recruiting classes are much smaller so you get more attention.

I’m not saying it’s as simple as it’s more a sale to most football players but I could see reasons above factoring for some kids. Seen that first hand for a couple people Basketball players that were more concerned about relationships and school prestige while the football players where more worried about scholarships being guaranteed even if they got hurt and relationships. Keep in mind this are like 2 former scholarship basketball players Ik and 6 former/current scholarship football players. So small sample size.

Bottom line relationships matter more than the school.

 

[willycat]

I would not be excited. As a semi Gopher fan, not excited about Ben Johnson either.

But still don't get your point. Do you know if they will bomb or not? Were they hired by NU?

I will repeat a question posed above by another poster. What is the alternative? Stop trying?

Guess we will know in about 4 or 5 years.