Gambling Thread

[chicagocatfan24]

To all my fellow degenerates:

I was doing a little handicapping this morning, and all week I've told myself to hammer the under in this game. Currently it's at 49 points, and I fully expect another 17ish-10 game a la Stanford.

Every Friday before the weekend slate, when most of the betting public's money has been placed on one bet or another, I peruse vegasinsider.com to see where the public's money is going.

Currently 91% of the money is being but on NU moneyline, and 96% is being bet on the under. This worries me for two reasons:

1. the public really likes NU. Vegas rarely, rarely loses to 90% of the betting public. If they did, there wouldn't be such thing as Vegas.

2. 49 points for the O/U could be a dummy line. For the same reason above, Vegas will set the line at a total that doesn't seem obtainable to the average gambler, BAM it's a shootout, and Vegas cleans up. I hope this isn't the case, because I do not think NU is in position to be piling up points yet...

Hope I'm wrong, but Vegas really like's Duke and Vegas is right more times than not

 

[HeyWhat?]

O/U scared me off. I may eat my words on this later, but I took NU +3. I've got a good feeling about this team.

 

[mybrotha]

To all my fellow degenerates:

I was doing a little handicapping this morning, and all week I've told myself to hammer the under in this game. Currently it's at 49 points, and I fully expect another 17ish-10 game a la Stanford.

Every Friday before the weekend slate, when most of the betting public's money has been placed on one bet or another, I peruse vegasinsider.com to see where the public's money is going.

Currently 91% of the money is being but on NU moneyline, and 96% is being bet on the under. This worries me for two reasons:

1. the public really likes NU. Vegas rarely, rarely loses to 90% of the betting public. If they did, there wouldn't be such thing as Vegas.

2. 49 points for the O/U could be a dummy line. For the same reason above, Vegas will set the line at a total that doesn't seem obtainable to the average gambler, BAM it's a shootout, and Vegas cleans up. I hope this isn't the case, because I do not think NU is in position to be piling up points yet...

Hope I'm wrong, but Vegas really like's Duke and Vegas is right more times than not

I am a bettor as well my friend and I have taken the Cats. Much of what you said I agree with, however there is one salient point that you have missed and that is Vegas and the general public . don't follow NU like we do. In that vein, the knowledge that we possess can trump odds making. Furthermore the number in this game has increased to 31/2 so the betting public is taking Duke on the number. Thus there are enough people out there that think NU will win the game outright so they are taking the extra value at +130 on the money line. When I bet the Stanford game I took the points and the money line. I will do the same on this game. Larger play with the points, smaller with the money line. Good luck!

 

[Fitz51]

I don't have anything to add to the above, which is all good commentary. Just want to say I hope we have a thread like this every week!

 

[chicagocatfan24]

I am a bettor as well my friend and I have taken the Cats. Much of what you said I agree with, however there is one salient point that you have missed and that is Vegas and the general public . don't follow NU like we do. In that vein, the knowledge that we possess can trump odds making. Furthermore the number in this game has increased to 31/2 so the betting public is taking Duke on the number. Thus there are enough people out there that think NU will win the game outright so they are taking the extra value at +130 on the money line. When I bet the Stanford game I took the points and the money line. I will do the same on this game. Larger play with the points, smaller with the money line. Good luck!

Completely agree.... I (we) know this team inside and out, and I always take that into account. I still think NU moneyline and the under are still the plays, but I'd be lying if I didn't think these trends scare the piss out of me. That said, I'm betting the Cats +150 and under 49. Like you said, we know more about NU than Ace Rothstein

I also like Illinois +250 as well, UNC is not that good at all and Illinois, I think, is a very decent ball club right now FWIW

 

[catlitter]

Not touching the Cats this week for the reasons described above.

I like Illinois and points. I don't think they'll win, but will cover.

Who likes USC -10 over Stanford? We dominated Stanford-won by ten and it would have been 17 if our DB doesn't take a knee on the what would have been a pick six near the end of the game. Cats are very good this year but we ain't USC. I say USC covers the 10 easily.

 

[Fitz51]

Do posters here really think they have better inside knowledge and insight than sportsbooks? I guess those casinos didn't build themselves...

 

[ricko654321]

Do posters here really think they have better inside knowledge and insight than sportsbooks? I guess those casinos didn't build themselves...

Yes we do know more about NU football than Vegas line setters. Trust me. There's the same few people setting all the lines, they use Sagarin and some personal knowledge. There are too many games in college football, so there are inefficiencies to be had - particularly early in the season. Eg knowing individual coach tendencies in blowouts is helpful for picking those -35 ish lines and Vegas often isn't aware of that. That's not the case really in the NFL cause every game is so much more highly covered. I'm not saying that one can beat it long term cause of the vig involved, but I'd take my knowledge of NU football any day over those folks.

I also like Cats and the under. It moved early to 3.5, but now it's going the other way cause all the money is coming in on the cats and the under. Back to 3 flat and 48.5.

I think Cats 27, Dookies 13.

Go Cats

 

[Fitz51]

I also like Cats and the under. It moved early to 3.5, but now it's going the other way cause all the money is coming in on the cats and the under. Back to 3 flat and 48.5.

I do love me some sharp money late line movement.

 

[ricko654321]

I do love me some sharp money late line movement.

I think it's cause Phil Steele recommended taking us...

 

[FeralFelidae]

Cats are very good this year but we ain't USC.

But our defense might be better than USC's. As wrassler says, our defense is lock-down and might be a top 5 D in the country. That's yet to be proven but don't deny it's a possibility.

 

[catlitter]

Also, sports books use some very knowledgeable handicappers to set the intimal line. The line then moves depending upon the betting public. The books usually try to keep the bets even on both sides, They make their money off the 10% fee (the "vig") which is paid on losing bets. As a result, some aspects of sports betting are somewhat (though not strictly) pari-mutuel, so that bettors betting against the betting public, rather than the house.

 

[Fitz51]

But our defense might be better than USC's. As wrassler says, our defense is lock-down and might be a top 5 D in the country. That's yet to be proven but don't deny it's a possibility.

Nothing wrassler says is possible.

 

[ricko654321]

Also, sports books use some very knowledgeable handicappers to set the intimal line. The line then moves depending upon the betting public. The books usually try to keep the bets even on both sides, They make their money off the 10% fee (the "vig") which is paid on losing bets. As a result, some aspects of sports betting are somewhat (though not strictly) pari-mutuel, so that bettors betting against the betting public, rather than the house.

Yea the line can move to some extent. But usually they end up with action one way or another. Eg bettors always overbet the favorites. Sportsbooks know this, as such the lines are set to account for this and underdogs win more often than not. Dogs covers about 53% of the time in the NFL. Bettors also overbet the road team - ie they chronically underestimate home field advantage. A home dog covers about 56% of the time. And bettors overbet popular ("public") teams. Eg Duke bball, ND football, and the Eagles. So the book usually loses money if certain teams cover. They'll move lines a bit to account for this, but not nearly enough from what they view as "fair value" to fully neutralize their risk. It's a balance of the 2. Usually the best outcome for the book is if the underdog covers but doesn't win (because people who bet dogs often put some or all of their exposure on the money line).

 

[hdhntr1]

Yes we do know more about NU football than Vegas line setters. Trust me. There's the same few people setting all the lines, they use Sagarin and some personal knowledge. There are too many games in college football, so there are inefficiencies to be had - particularly early in the season. Eg knowing individual coach tendencies in blowouts is helpful for picking those -35 ish lines and Vegas often isn't aware of that. That's not the case really in the NFL cause every game is so much more highly covered. I'm not saying that one can beat it long term cause of the vig involved, but I'd take my knowledge of NU football any day over those folks.

I also like Cats and the under. It moved early to 3.5, but now it's going the other way cause all the money is coming in on the cats and the under. Back to 3 flat and 48.5.

I think Cats 27, Dookies 13.

Go Cats

I thought in general, all the Vegas line makers were interested in keeping the betting on each side equal. Caring far less on what is going to happen in the game. So if it took moving the line to equal out the bets, so be it. They were only interested in the Vig. Or is that incorrect?

 

[ricko654321]

I thought in general, all the Vegas line makers were interested in keeping the betting on each side equal. Caring far less on what is going to happen in the game. So if it took moving the line to equal out the bets, so be it. They were only interested in the Vig. Or is that incorrect?

Sure, in an ideal world. But in reality it doesn't really work out that way. They balance between equalizing money and setting fair value.

 

[IGNORE2]

To all my fellow degenerates:

I was doing a little handicapping this morning, and all week I've told myself to hammer the under in this game. Currently it's at 49 points, and I fully expect another 17ish-10 game a la Stanford.

Every Friday before the weekend slate, when most of the betting public's money has been placed on one bet or another, I peruse vegasinsider.com to see where the public's money is going.

Currently 91% of the money is being but on NU moneyline, and 96% is being bet on the under. This worries me for two reasons:

1. the public really likes NU. Vegas rarely, rarely loses to 90% of the betting public. If they did, there wouldn't be such thing as Vegas.

2. 49 points for the O/U could be a dummy line. For the same reason above, Vegas will set the line at a total that doesn't seem obtainable to the average gambler, BAM it's a shootout, and Vegas cleans up. I hope this isn't the case, because I do not think NU is in position to be piling up points yet...

Hope I'm wrong, but Vegas really like's Duke and Vegas is right more times than not

I have it at 4 and 48. Message me if you want an account

 

[IGNORE2]

To all my fellow degenerates:

I was doing a little handicapping this morning, and all week I've told myself to hammer the under in this game. Currently it's at 49 points, and I fully expect another 17ish-10 game a la Stanford.

Every Friday before the weekend slate, when most of the betting public's money has been placed on one bet or another, I peruse vegasinsider.com to see where the public's money is going.

Currently 91% of the money is being but on NU moneyline, and 96% is being bet on the under. This worries me for two reasons:

1. the public really likes NU. Vegas rarely, rarely loses to 90% of the betting public. If they did, there wouldn't be such thing as Vegas.

2. 49 points for the O/U could be a dummy line. For the same reason above, Vegas will set the line at a total that doesn't seem obtainable to the average gambler, BAM it's a shootout, and Vegas cleans up. I hope this isn't the case, because I do not think NU is in position to be piling up points yet...

Hope I'm wrong, but Vegas really like's Duke and Vegas is right more times than not

Btw, the lines rarely are set for the big play. It's a myth. The real scores come from insider games, which are low conferences. Think under MAC.

But you are also correct, Vegas rarely loses. Duke winning but not covering is probably the smart play.

For a major line to move, you need XXX amount in one direction. This game is not a high revenue game. The one point drop accounts for the heavy play on the under as you described. If it moves another point, go over.

 

[IGNORE2]

Yea the line can move to some extent. But usually they end up with action one way or another. Eg bettors always overbet the favorites. Sportsbooks know this, as such the lines are set to account for this and underdogs win more often than not. Dogs covers about 53% of the time in the NFL. Bettors also overbet the road team - ie they chronically underestimate home field advantage. A home dog covers about 56% of the time. And bettors overbet popular ("public") teams. Eg Duke bball, ND football, and the Eagles. So the book usually loses money if certain teams cover. They'll move lines a bit to account for this, but not nearly enough from what they view as "fair value" to fully neutralize their risk. It's a balance of the 2. Usually the best outcome for the book is if the underdog covers but doesn't win (because people who bet dogs often put some or all of their exposure on the money line).

All of this'd is very true, very well done and the very disregarded.

 

[IGNORE2]

I thought in general, all the Vegas line makers were interested in keeping the betting on each side equal. Caring far less on what is going to happen in the game. So if it took moving the line to equal out the bets, so be it. They were only interested in the Vig. Or is that incorrect?

Not really. To an extent. Parlays, teasers are the real easy money. Looking at the bigger picture, the crowds that cause the oddsmaker to get killed week 1 will bet heavier week 2 and luck catches up. The book can absorb a hit and look forward to statistical evening.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Btw, the lines rarely are set for the big play. It's a myth. The real scores come from insider games, which are low conferences. Think under MAC.

But you are also correct, Vegas rarely loses. Duke winning but not covering is probably the smart play.

For a major line to move, you need XXX amount in one direction. This game is not a high revenue game. The one point drop accounts for the heavy play on the under as you described. If it moves another point, go over.

I have actually heard, and it could be myth, that it doesn't matter if one big bettor puts huge money on an event.

For instance Floyd mayweather will throw a million bucks on any given event. This won't sway the line because Vegas knows he doesn't know shit about the teams he's betting. More or less he is just guessing. But if someone who's a well known handicapper has taken Vegas for a lot of money and a lot of money frequently bets one way or another, the line may move, regardless of how much money he puts on it, because Vegas respects his handicapping skills. Take it FWIW

 

[IGNORE2]

I have actually heard, and it could be myth, that it doesn't matter if one big bettor puts huge money on an event.

For instance Floyd mayweather will throw a million bucks on any given event. This won't sway the line because Vegas knows he doesn't know shit about the teams he's betting. More or less he is just guessing. But if someone who's a well known handicapper has taken Vegas for a lot of money and a lot of money frequently bets one way or another, the line may move, regardless of how much money he puts on it, because Vegas respects his handicapping skills. Take it FWIW

Single bets do matter as the pros use agents to,place their bets. An instance that you describe is different. If Al Pacino comes in tomorrow and lays $1M on NU, it's a no impact.

Keep in mind that certain casinos and websites share information, so $1M is not a big revenue maker.

 

[mybrotha]

Single bets do matter as the pros use agents to,place their bets. An instance that you describe is different. If Al Pacino comes in tomorrow and lays $1M on NU, it's a no impact.

Keep in mind that certain casinos and websites share information, so $1M is not a big revenue maker.

That's unfortunately not true. Casinos are on the business of leveling out the plays on games which is why the numbers move around. You can bet your bottom dollar if someone lays a million on NU or Duke, the line at that casino will change immediately! However, for starters Floyd Mayweather does NOT lay that kind of money. The books here in Vegas laugh every time that rumor floats around. A million dollar bet is a VERY hard bet to get anywhere here in town. I am pretty dialed in out here and know some big time gamblers. Public perception about what truly happens is way off the mark!

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

To all my fellow degenerates:

I was doing a little handicapping this morning, and all week I've told myself to hammer the under in this game. Currently it's at 49 points, and I fully expect another 17ish-10 game a la Stanford.

Every Friday before the weekend slate, when most of the betting public's money has been placed on one bet or another, I peruse vegasinsider.com to see where the public's money is going.

Currently 91% of the money is being but on NU moneyline, and 96% is being bet on the under. This worries me for two reasons:

1. the public really likes NU. Vegas rarely, rarely loses to 90% of the betting public. If they did, there wouldn't be such thing as Vegas.

2. 49 points for the O/U could be a dummy line. For the same reason above, Vegas will set the line at a total that doesn't seem obtainable to the average gambler, BAM it's a shootout, and Vegas cleans up. I hope this isn't the case, because I do not think NU is in position to be piling up points yet...

Hope I'm wrong, but Vegas really like's Duke and Vegas is right more times than not

The line has moved to +4 for the Cats. Money is moving on Duke not the Cats. We'll see if the public is correct or not, but clearly there are plenty of non-believers in the Cats.

 

[IGNORE2]

Well, I took a beating on this game. But the action was pretty light compared to other games. Beginning of the seasons are pretty odd.

 

[rmndcat]

I think my bias for the rest of the season will be the under..on the strength of the defense and the fact that the passing game will need some time to mature.