The one counter I'd make is that I think they will also try to get Shaver on Boo 1v1 at times late in the shot clock and allow him to muscle up Boo. He's not nearly as good a player as Pickett, but we still will have to make a decision about how and when to send help at that matchup if they try to spread the floor around it (as I suspect they will).
We should have a rebounding advantage I agree, but I don't think it'll be that easy - even if they don't have a ton of height they still have some strength and size. They had a +3.4 avg rebounding differential (35.6-32.2) on the year, granted it's much easier to do that in their conference than in the B1G. We were actually -0.5 (34.6 vs 35.1) but I still like our chances to outrebound Boise given how tough it is to rebound in the B1G.
Other random stat comparisons - their assist rate at 43% is lower than average and ours - 11.2 apg on 25.8 FG made pg. Ours is 55% (12.9 apg on 23.5 FG made). Their turnover differential is +0.7 (11.2 for them, 11.9 for opponents) in comparison to ours which is near the best in D-1 at +4.5 (9.8 for us, 14.3 for opponents). That is an area of potential opportunity to get additional possessions. We also average 4.2 blocks pg (vs. 3.4 for our opponents) while Boise St averages 2.9 blocks pg (vs. 3.3 for their opponents).
Our ability to steal possessions from turnover differential, blocks, and rebounding has been critical to our success this year. Interestingly despite an average +5.2 margin of victory, we have actually shot slightly worse than our opponents - 40.6% for us vs. 41.2% for opponents (and 32.1% from 3, vs 33.9% for opponents, though we shoot a higher portion of 3's than opponents, which surprised me a bit). We've made up for that by shooting 164 more shots than our opponents (+5.1 shot attempts per game), and also with a strong FT differential, shooting 75% vs. 68% for opponents which adds up to +1.6 FT made differential per game.
Comparing that to Boise, they are much more efficient on offense shooting 45.5% (vs 41.3% for their opponents). They've also shot 36.5% from 3 (vs. 30.9% from their opponents), so as others have noted defending the 3pt line will be critical. For us, I wonder if that makes us reconsider our season-long practice of doubling the post. It may not be necessary for all situations given the size advantage Nicholson and to a lesser extent Tydus should have, though I realize that is part of our identity and a big driver of our turnover creation. I think we should still use it, though maybe be a bit more selective based on player / matchup / floor position to ensure when we do we can still scramble back to cover the 3 point line. Lastly, Boise shot 73.5% from the FT line (vs. 70% for their opponents, with +2.0 FT differential), I didn't look through to all the individual players but in generally they are pretty good there.
GO CATS
