Happy Kenpom (and friends) day!

[CappyNU]

The season approaches, and with it come the preseason ratings!

Kenpom: #50 (12th in conference)
Torvik: #48 (14th in conference)
Evan Miyawaka: #55 (14th in conference)
Haslametrics: #43 (10th in conference)

None of them have any teams in the conference as being elite or any teams being terrible, with a handful of top-25 squads and a big jumble in the middle. Should be an interesting year in the extremely Big 10.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Which is to say "NU is competitive in a very competitive environment and they could get the short end of the stick, or if they're just a little better than we expect they could easily push for the tournament again."

Sounds about right.

 

[CappyNU]

Tiers appear to be something like this, depending which ranking system you like:

Purdue (1, 1, 1, 1)
--------
Illinois (2, 2, 2, 4)
UCLA (2, 3, 1, 3)
MSU (3, 2, 2, 4)
Indiana (3, 4, 3, 2)
OSU (2, 5, 4, 4)
--------
Maryland (3, 6, 4, 4)
Iowa (2, 6, 4, 4)
Oregon (2, 6, 4, 4)
---------
Michigan (3, 5, 6, 4)
Wisconsin (4, 6, 3, 5)
NU (4, 6, 4, 5)
USC (5, 6, 2, 5)
Rutgers (6, 2, 6, 6)
Nebraska (5, 6, 5, 5)
-------
Minnesota (6, 7, 7, 6)
PSU (6, 7, 6, 6)
Washington (6, 7, 5, 6)

Our schedule features:
Tier 1 - 1 away
Tier 2 - 6, 4 home, 2 away, Illinois x2
Tier 3 - 5, 2 home, 3 away, Maryland x2, Iowa x2
Tier 4 - 5, 4 home, 1 away
Tier 5 - 3 away

Obviously this will change a ton by the time we get to conference play, but for once the schedule doesn't see horrific? We have one west coast trip, with Washington and Oregon back to back.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Is Purdue going to be a juggernaut without Edey? Part of me thinks Illinois is the team to beat this year.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Is Purdue going to be a juggernaut without Edey? Part of me thinks Illinois is the team to beat this year.

Is Illinois going to be a juggernaut without *checks notes* like literally their entire starting five?

 

[NJCat]

Surprised to see RU so low, with 2 one-and-done guys predicted to go in the top 5 of the NBA draft. Good coach, great home court, they are going to be a handful.

 

[macarthur31]

Appreciate this breakdown. Agreed on the surprise about Rutgers. Coach Pikell knows how to coach defense. It's just unknown if the fantastic frosh can provide that offensive boost, but I'd feel confident in that bet.

I'd feel good if NU could emerge at the top of their tier.

 

[techtim72]

I feel like I am the only person who thinks Braden Smith is grossly overrated. Picking Purdue number one with Edey leaving makes zero sense to me. I am prepared to be proved completely clueless about basketball but that's how I see it.

 

[CappyNU]

Surprised to see RU so low, with 2 one-and-done guys predicted to go in the top 5 of the NBA draft. Good coach, great home court, they are going to be a handful.

Generally the stats guys have said that it's usually hard to properly assess the impact of freshmen, even the top ones, so it's likely there will be more variance early on with teams like Rutgers.

 

[TheC]

Generally the stats guys have said that it's usually hard to properly assess the impact of freshmen, even the top ones, so it's likely there will be more variance early on with teams like Rutgers.

I feel like a number of one-and-done type players have had flashes of brilliance, but are generally inconsistent in college. If on a powerhouse team like Duke, they still win games, but they aren't exactly dominant.

 

[NUCat320]

I feel like I am the only person who thinks Braden Smith is grossly overrated. Picking Purdue number one with Edey leaving makes zero sense to me. I am prepared to be proved completely clueless about basketball but that's how I see it.

Naah, we all know Braden Smith’s game is dump it to Edey and watch the assists pile up.

Nice that we got the right west coast opponents.

 

[TheC]

Naah, we all know Braden Smith’s game is dump it to Edey and watch the assists pile up.

Nice that we got the right west coast opponents.

Yeah... I am so stumped by the Braden Smith love. To me, he was a streaky shooter and he struggled handling the ball when guys really got in his grill. He had the most dominant player in college basketball on his team which drew away so much attention, but he will now have to make plays himself. Maybe he'll prove us wrong.

 

[combes]

Is Illinois going to be a juggernaut without *checks notes* like literally their entire starting five?

 

[SmellyCat]

I feel like I am the only person who thinks Braden Smith is grossly overrated. Picking Purdue number one with Edey leaving makes zero sense to me. I am prepared to be proved completely clueless about basketball but that's how I see it.

Count me among this group as well. I think he's a good college point guard, but I don't feel like there is anything particularly noteworthy about his game.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Is Illinois going to be a juggernaut without *checks notes* like literally their entire starting five?

Everything I have read says they are loaded. Of course, it's not official until Combes and Vassar tell us how great they are.

 

[AdamOnFirst]

Everything I have read says they are loaded. Of course, it's not official until Combes and Vassar tell us how great they are.

I also have no reason to doubt they’ll be good, that was just a direct response to a question about Purdue not being good without Edey

 

[catcrazy]

Mediocre player. Unless someone emerges I think Purdue is middle of the road/pack team.

 

[GatoLouco]

Count me among this group as well. I think he's a good college point guard, but I don't feel like there is anything particularly noteworthy about his game.

Count me in that group too. I work with a Purdue guy who is also a bit perplexed how they are (almost) unanimously picked #1 in the conference and a top 25 team.

I know chances are I am wrong and the "experts" know more about how good Kaufman-Renn and others will be unleashed from the shackles of having to defer to Edey. It's still hard to see the two guards being more than just decent players without Edey.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Surprised to see RU so low, with 2 one-and-done guys predicted to go in the top 5 of the NBA draft. Good coach, great home court, they are going to be a handful.

Kentucky of the Northeast. Looks good in season, losses to a mid major with 5 24 year olds in the tourney.

 

[techtim72]

The key to NU's continued success - get old and stay old.

 

[SmellyCat]

Count me in that group too. I work with a Purdue guy who is also a bit perplexed how they are (almost) unanimously picked #1 in the conference and a top 25 team.

I know chances are I am wrong and the "experts" know more about how good Kaufman-Renn and others will be unleashed from the shackles of having to defer to Edey. It's still hard to see the two guards being more than just decent players without Edey.

With all the transfers and everything, it's probably not worth the effort of most prognosticators to really dig deep and see which is the best "team." Illinois might be the best team on paper, but no one knows their players yet. Michigan State and Indiana and UCLA are bluebloods that haven't been consistently great in a while, so you can't really pick them. Hey, look, Purdue made it to the final four last year and have a point guard we all think is the bee's knees! Yep, #1. That's probably the extent of how hard many of them worked to make this prediction.

Honestly, a real easy competition would be what would real college hoops fans predict the prognosticators would predict. That's a way easier task than just trying to figure it out yourself.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Count me among this group as well. I think he's a good college point guard, but I don't feel like there is anything particularly noteworthy about his game.

If we had Smith, we would probably be favored to win the conference.

 

[NJCat]

If we had Smith, we would probably be favored to win the conference.

Or if Boo had another year of eligibility......Cats were that close last year.

 

[SmellyCat]

If we had Smith, we would probably be favored to win the conference.

Yes and no.

If we had the actual person of Smith joining our team that everyone gushed over at Purdue the last couple of years, then probably.

If we had a player with Smith's talent and experience transfer in from North Dakota State, no, no one would think NU would win the conference.

Because NU had a great point guard last year (I'm biased, but he was way better than Smith) coming off a second-place finish and nobody was picking NU to contend for the conference championship last year. Now, the difference last year was Edey of course, and even biased SmellyCat would've picked Purdue last year, but somebody had to be second place, and you would think the team that got second place the year before and had arguably the second-best player in the conference would at least contend.

 

[techtim72]

I do think Smith should be able to handle pressure defense and big games better this year. He was better last year than the year before. So naming him all Big Ten - OK but he wouldn't be my choice. Best player in the Big Ten? Not even close although I believe that competition is open.

Purdue has to find their way on both defense and offense now that Edey is gone. They will still throw some gargantuan center in there but not as gargantuan as Edey so their basic approach on both sides of the ball will need to change from what they have been playing for two years. Painter's a good coach and they have good talent so they will figure it out with time.

 

[EagerFan]

Smith should be solid, he now has a few years of experience and has played against some of the best in the country. On the other hand, unless Painter's next 7'4" dude is really ready to step up, Smith will probably face a lot more general pressure with defense's not having to focus on Edey as much. Purdue should be a solid team. I dunno anything about the rest of them other than agreeing that Rutgers seems underrated.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Regarding Braden Smith, I think a big part of the evaluation problem can be pinned on Evan Miyakawa, the stats guy mentioned above.

I like Miyakawa's website. He dares to rate every single player both offensively and defensively That takes some guts.

Based on whatever numbers he's using, he thinks Braden Smith is the 2nd best player in college basketball, behind only Auburn's John Broome.

And thats probably why so many pundits think Braden Smith is awesome.

However, I would like to also point out that Miyakawa has Northwestern's roster rated. Best player on the team is Matt Nicholson, followed closely by Brooks Barnhizer and Ty Berry. He's got Justin Mullins and Jordan Clayton as below average D1 players (they have negative ratings). So Edey got Smith a lot of assists. Sometimes the numbers tell lies.

https://evanmiya.com/?player_ratings

 

[NJCat]

Regarding Braden Smith, I think a big part of the evaluation problem can be pinned on Evan Miyakawa, the stats guy mentioned above.

I like Miyakawa's website. He dares to rate every single player both offensively and defensively That takes some guts.

Based on whatever numbers he's using, he thinks Braden Smith is he 2nd best player in college basketball, behind only Auburn's John Broome.

And thats probably why so many pundits think Braden Smith is awesome.

However, I would like to also point out that Miyakawa has Northwestern's roster rated. Best player on the team is Matt Nicholson, followed closely by Brooks Barnhizer and Ty Berry. He's got Justin Mullins and Jordan Clayton as below average D1 players (they have negative ratings). So Edey got Smith a lot of assists. Sometimes the numbers tell lies.

https://evanmiya.com/?player_ratings

Just proves that "stats are for losers".

 

[SmellyCat]

I like Miyakawa's website. He dares to rate every single player both offensively and defensively That takes some guts.

That it does. I just don't think there is enough good data, while paradoxically there are way too many players, to be able to do this in any kind of systematic way. Let's say for the sake of simplicity, an assist is worth one point across the board. Well, how much more should an assist from point guard Smith last year (when he was playing in more blowouts AND passing to a generational player) be worth compared to an assist from Keenan Fitzmorris when he was playing as a starting center in the CAA for a bad team last year? And how do you also adjust as a predictive measure now that Fitz is a backup in the Big Ten who has not played a single minute compared to Smith, who is no longer playing with Edey and is a veteran of the Big Ten? I mean, you can have a formula I guess, but really, can you?

I *love* trying to boil down things into stats and rankings (you should see my Oscar spreadsheets), but it's pretty easy to tell what's possible and what's not, and it takes a lot of guts to even try to do this and then let other people see it. Stats aren't for losers, but these stats are pretty ridiculous.

 

[wildcatpn]

View embedded media

Better than the Bulls!!! No doubt!!!

 

[NUCat320]

(you should see my Oscar spreadsheets),

What do your Oscar spreadsheets include?

Can you post them somewhere?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

That it does. I just don't think there is enough good data, while paradoxically there are way too many players, to be able to do this in any kind of systematic way. Let's say for the sake of simplicity, an assist is worth one point across the board. Well, how much more should an assist from point guard Smith last year (when he was playing in more blowouts AND passing to a generational player) be worth compared to an assist from Keenan Fitzmorris when he was playing as a starting center in the CAA for a bad team last year? And how do you also adjust as a predictive measure now that Fitz is a backup in the Big Ten who has not played a single minute compared to Smith, who is no longer playing with Edey and is a veteran of the Big Ten? I mean, you can have a formula I guess, but really, can you?

I *love* trying to boil down things into stats and rankings (you should see my Oscar spreadsheets), but it's pretty easy to tell what's possible and what's not, and it takes a lot of guts to even try to do this and then let other people see it. Stats aren't for losers, but these stats are pretty ridiculous.

I agree. It is a difficult thing to do. One thing I have noticed is that Miyakawa's method struggles to distinguish between players on the same team. Its an issue I've had to deal with in evaluating guys based on their "+/-."

Last year he had Edey at 10.35, Braden Smith at 7.5, Lance Jones at 5.73, Gillis at 5.10 and Fletcher Loyer at 5.0. Thats supposed to reflect the guys value per game above an average D1 player.

He had Buie at 5.17, Berry at 3.71 and Barnhizer at 3.6.

I know I'd pick Barnhizer and Buie ahead of any of those Purdue guys not named Edey.

 

[techtim72]

Rating Mullins and Clayton is more or less a waste of time. No data. Perhaps rating them generically as originally three stars with two years of college development (or whatever) has value, but beyond that who knows.

 

[SmellyCat]

Yeah, feels like the win bonus is a bit too much for my tastes, based on that example. Yes, it should be worth something, but saying that Fletcher Loyer was worth about the same as Boo Buie is of course ridiculous.

 

[SmellyCat]

What do your Oscar spreadsheets include?

Can you post them somewhere?

Thanks for the interest, but It's mostly just for my own edification. I like to see as many of the nominees and top contenders as possible every year, and keeping track of the rankings of a bunch of online prognosticators (even if they mostly just follow the herd) helps me keep track of what I need to see. For example, as of my last update, here were the top 25 movies on the list for this year:

1​	Conclave​
2​	Emilia Perez​
3​	The Brutalist​
4​	Anora​
5​	Sing Sing​
6​	Blitz​
7​	The Piano Lesson​
8​	Gladiator II​
9​	Dune: Part Two​
10​	A Complete Unknown​
11​	Nickel Boys​
12​	A Real Pain​
13​	The Room Next Door​
14​	Maria​
15​	Queer​
16​	Babygirl​
17​	Nightbitch​
18​	The Outrun​
19​	Joker: Folie à Deux​
20​	September 5​
21​	The Apprentice​
22​	Hard Truths​
23​	Saturday Night​
24​	The Substance​
25​	His Three Daughters​

The ones in bold are the only ones I've seen so far, so it's a bit early in the process. Also, Joker bombed completely, so it's going to drop out of these rankings for sure.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Rating Mullins and Clayton is more or less a waste of time. No data. Perhaps rating them generically as originally three stars with two years of college development (or whatever) has value, but beyond that who knows.

Remember Mullins played a full season at Denver before transferring to NU. So there's data for him. He played 100 minutes for NU last year.
Clayton played 200 minutes. Thats enough to project "something."
It does look like Miyakawa also does projecting based on recruitment ranks because our incoming freshmen have player ratings!
He also projects player improvement from one year to the next because Nicholson is rated higher now than he was last year. If he does that based on the player's past trajectory, that would make some sense.

 

[NJCat]

He also projects player improvement from one year to the next because Nicholson is rated higher now than he was last year. If he does that based on the player's past trajectory, that would make some sense.

Which is weird, because Matt averaged fewer points and rebounds per game last year than the prior year.

 

[Gatabowl]

I feel like I am the only person who thinks Braden Smith is grossly overrated. Picking Purdue number one with Edey leaving makes zero sense to me. I am prepared to be proved completely clueless about basketball but that's how I see it.

Have you seen my posts on this board? Lol