How exactly did our program get to this point?
- Thread starter DocCat2
- Start date
Hank retired. The emperor has no clothes.
Just realized we have lost 9 of our last 10 games. Losing all 3 non-conference games is brutal, esp these last 2. The program is in free-fall.
This is not my innovative coach. This is not my suffocating defense. This is not my promising recruiting class. My God, what have I done?
We have to go back to 2018 since the fans we able to enjoy games in person.
2022 1-4
2021 3-9
2020 fans could not attend a short season
2019 3-9
We are getting close to reentering the dark ages again
Fitz is not an X’s and O’s coach. When that coach left, so did our success.
Fitz also has a very narrow network. His coaches stay a long time (this likely also means he’s not a great identifier of what makes a great coach), and he’s had very few employers in his career. When he reached into his network for a DC, his best contact was an unemployed DB coach who had only ever failed as a DC…and has continued to.
He’s also had the same job for 17 years. Nobody keeps the same job that long. Nobody steps back for a year, except for professors. Maybe he should step back for a year, study hip hop and eastern philosophy and leadership books and the glory of a base cover 4 defense anchored by dominant defensive backs.
Fitz also has a very narrow network. His coaches stay a long time (this likely also means he’s not a great identifier of what makes a great coach), and he’s had very few employers in his career. When he reached into his network for a DC, his best contact was an unemployed DB coach who had only ever failed as a DC…and has continued to.
He’s also had the same job for 17 years. Nobody keeps the same job that long. Nobody steps back for a year, except for professors. Maybe he should step back for a year, study hip hop and eastern philosophy and leadership books and the glory of a base cover 4 defense anchored by dominant defensive backs.
He should take a year sabbatical and work on the Nick Saban career rehab center......
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I feel like everyone's gotten to the same point on this question:
1) A combination of coordinator hires that hasn't worked out.
2) QB development has not worked at all since Thorson left. We got a year of Ramsey but he was a finished product.
3) Conservative offensive philosophy that makes it tough to recruit WRs.
We've all been watching the program enough to know that it's likely #3 doesn't change. Fitz wants to win the Tressel way: get a lead or keep the game close, squeeze the air out of the ball with the run game, trust defense or offense to win the game at the end. As long as you have a great defense, it's a workable formula and the results while Hank was DC speak for themselves.
But the current state of the program is untenable.
We'll have spent $1.1 billion on this program over a decade when the stadium project is finished. This is a Big Ten school spending as much as any program out there. We need to see results, and that means wins.
We can't afford to have a series of years like this where we're not making bowl games. If Chryst can be forced out at Wisconsin, then Fitz has to make changes to get this program back on track.
Better now than after 5-6 years of 1-3 win seasons. We absolutely do not want to go down that road.
1) A combination of coordinator hires that hasn't worked out.
2) QB development has not worked at all since Thorson left. We got a year of Ramsey but he was a finished product.
3) Conservative offensive philosophy that makes it tough to recruit WRs.
We've all been watching the program enough to know that it's likely #3 doesn't change. Fitz wants to win the Tressel way: get a lead or keep the game close, squeeze the air out of the ball with the run game, trust defense or offense to win the game at the end. As long as you have a great defense, it's a workable formula and the results while Hank was DC speak for themselves.
But the current state of the program is untenable.
We'll have spent $1.1 billion on this program over a decade when the stadium project is finished. This is a Big Ten school spending as much as any program out there. We need to see results, and that means wins.
We can't afford to have a series of years like this where we're not making bowl games. If Chryst can be forced out at Wisconsin, then Fitz has to make changes to get this program back on track.
Better now than after 5-6 years of 1-3 win seasons. We absolutely do not want to go down that road.
I do wonder if Fitz has lost his passion for the job. It's easy to become complacent when you have never-work-again money in the bank and you continue to make $5M a year.
I have always been able to accept that other teams can (often do) have more talent. What frustrates me about this year's team is the lack of energy and excitement. This was painfully obvious at the SIU game.
I have always been able to accept that other teams can (often do) have more talent. What frustrates me about this year's team is the lack of energy and excitement. This was painfully obvious at the SIU game.
We've just lost to 3 teams that should not have had more talent than us. And they were all underdogs against us for a reason. (I'm talking about Duke, SIU, Miami).
The talent excuse is not acceptable for what we've seen the past month.
Lack of motivation/effort; lack of coaching; poor play/execution. It's one thing to be at a talent deficit to Ohio State or Penn State or Michigan.
Our performance is quite another thing.
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I think we agree completely. I was not suggesting that those three had more talent (maybe Duke). I was just pointing the the energy level as a glaring weakness.
I'm not campaigning for Fitz's outster, but this is all 100% on him.
When the chips are down, there are two ways to handle it:
1. Respond like the building is on fire.
2. The Fitz Way: sensibly blame injuries and one or two key plays, act calmly, come back in on Mondays and watch film together, sensibly discuss problems and thoughtful solutions to them. Try them, watch them fail, rinse and repeat. Definition of insanity?
At this point in our situation, the Fitz Way definitely, definitely isn't working. I don't want some lunatic at the podium shouting at the top of his lungs, but if he's still calm about what's happening on his watch, he needs to reconsider his entire existence and approach as the guy in charge. He is graced with more patience than anyone will get in his position, but that won't last forever. The clock is ticking, and it's getting louder.
In his defense, will also say...from my master's in learning and org change I learned that so much change all at once can be crippling: breaking in not one but two coordinators (both of whom may have possibly been wrong picks) while he's sorting out his relationship with a new AD and now has a new president (who is VERY tuned into sports), just had a practice palace built and now all eyes are on him as new stadium plans have been announced...and I'd love to know what he truly thinks about his talent on the field.
Honestly...if I were him I'd be having a nervous breakdown and my wife/kids would need to hide the knives.
When the chips are down, there are two ways to handle it:
1. Respond like the building is on fire.
2. The Fitz Way: sensibly blame injuries and one or two key plays, act calmly, come back in on Mondays and watch film together, sensibly discuss problems and thoughtful solutions to them. Try them, watch them fail, rinse and repeat. Definition of insanity?
At this point in our situation, the Fitz Way definitely, definitely isn't working. I don't want some lunatic at the podium shouting at the top of his lungs, but if he's still calm about what's happening on his watch, he needs to reconsider his entire existence and approach as the guy in charge. He is graced with more patience than anyone will get in his position, but that won't last forever. The clock is ticking, and it's getting louder.
In his defense, will also say...from my master's in learning and org change I learned that so much change all at once can be crippling: breaking in not one but two coordinators (both of whom may have possibly been wrong picks) while he's sorting out his relationship with a new AD and now has a new president (who is VERY tuned into sports), just had a practice palace built and now all eyes are on him as new stadium plans have been announced...and I'd love to know what he truly thinks about his talent on the field.
Honestly...if I were him I'd be having a nervous breakdown and my wife/kids would need to hide the knives.
I agree with you, and I think as we all know that's been one of the problems that Fitz has had the entire time he's been HC.
As many times as we play up to opponents, we also play down to opponents.
We have too many bizarre losses to sometimes significant underdogs from FCS/G5 teams.
That’s where Fitz absolutely needs to learn from Saban, who went from winning a national title 9-6 (right?) to trying to score 50 a game. The rules have conspired such that the Tressel way no longer works. Craig Krenzel wouldn’t start for Ryan Day’s Bucks.
Yeah or the school where that model came from as you point out...
Ohio State won the 2002 BCS NC under Tressel but then struggled against SEC teams in the next 2 attempts under Tressel.
Great offenses are not really stoppable at this point unless you have a defense loaded with future NFL talent like Georgia had last year. Very few teams ever have that. Some years none of those teams even exist.
Meyer modernized OSU's offense and now they have an embarrassment of riches at the WR position to the point where some of those guys leave to start at places like Alabama.
I do think there's a strong argument for shifting away from a primary emphasis on defensive struggles to a more high powered offensive strategy.
Generally, recruiting. But in the modern age, QB recruiting has become the crux for pretty much every program.
It is astounding to me how much responsibility for the offense now rests in the QB's hands (brains). Think about the RPO and how much depends on pre-snap and post-snap reads. Schnur was a fine QB, but he would probably get eaten alive in today's game.
Our best QBs since Baz have come from in-state (with one exception, TS). When Illinois has good HS talent, we tend to do well. Our struggles lately are tied to a lack of difference makers on offense. When CT, JJ, Ebert, etc moved on, there was a big void that has yet to be filled.
It is astounding to me how much responsibility for the offense now rests in the QB's hands (brains). Think about the RPO and how much depends on pre-snap and post-snap reads. Schnur was a fine QB, but he would probably get eaten alive in today's game.
Our best QBs since Baz have come from in-state (with one exception, TS). When Illinois has good HS talent, we tend to do well. Our struggles lately are tied to a lack of difference makers on offense. When CT, JJ, Ebert, etc moved on, there was a big void that has yet to be filled.
The "change" issue cannot be understated; however, the only real change in the actual program is the marked decline of the defense. Many of us agree that it is because JON is a career failure and bad hire, but we've had bad kicking for a decade and one top 80 (!!!) Offense in the last ten years. Even slow-poke Iowa has had 6 in the top 80 in that span.
We hired a dedicated special teams coordinator to solve that problem… … … a dedicated special teams coordinator from Fitz’s own thin network
Two hires. Neither the DC nor the OC are nearly strong enough to make NU a winner, neither by coaching nor by recruiting.
But that's the tip of the iceberg. Even if NU fires these two, the guy who hired them is gonna go out and find others just like them. But even that's the tip of the iceberg. NU loves the guy who hired these two, is stunned by what is happening and is just staring at the problem... like a ship without a rudder.
Somebody please imagine us a way out.
I think Fitz hoped to recruit two coordinators who would basically never leave - two guys who would never potentially outshine or overshadow him (et tu, Jim Leonhard?) and who would never dare disrupt the program by moving on to a better gig based on exceptional performance at NU. It's like marrying someone who you don't think is hot or successful enough to ever leave you.
To be clear, I'm not insinuating Fitz was deliberately sabotaging anything here - I just think he prioritized the likelihood of stability over the potential for a higher ceiling...and justified it by as anyone in his position would - need guys I can trust, who share similar values, who "get" Northwestern, and blah blah blah.
I have thought for a very long time that Fitz highly values the idea of a "football family". I think he longs to have a Paterno-style staff where people stay well beyond the industry average. I personally think that this goal clouded his judgment about firing McCall.
Other coaches look for a young, hungry up-and-coming coach. They figure they can get 2-3 good seasons out of them before they move on, and they are OK with that.
And NU finally beat tOSU under... Tressel. That's the only time NU has beaten tOSU in my entire life.
My very cynical thought is that Fitz doesn't want to risk taking a bucking bronco in the stable, and considers it the much smarter/less risky bet to hire the coaches he hires...because they *could* be great...
Admittedly, Fitz's kid would be a better OC than Ferentz kid
The 9-6 OT game was the regular season meeting between Alabama and LSU, and LSU won it. Alabama won the rematch in the national title game 21-0.
Northwestern has lost all connections to Chicago sports media,depending instead on alumni in national spots to carry the story(when they can) there is no ground buzz staff seems unapproachable and ticket office really doesn't care NU and Wisconsin a great series for the past 15 years and hardly a word written or broadcast about it this week.The changing shape of major college football requires a bit of schmoozing or whoring if you want to remain in the hunt a 16 team playoff looms and no more than 48 teams will be needed( depending on B1G affiliation isn't going to cut it.) What happened to open practice, spring games , meet the team for the general public. As a smaller stadium is built did anyone think about a future where NC playoff games will be held at campus sites if NU makes the expanded playoffs home field might be sacrificed to 35 ,000 additional seats.Somebody in the Athletic offices has to change the inward direction of NU football..
A better comparo would be TCU firing Gary Patterson (their most successful coach) after 21 yrs.
They brought in Dykes who has rejuvenated the program via having a more vibrant O.
Wouldn't exactly say that.
The best passing QBs coming out of HS were Bacher and Siemian and Persa was the most dynamic playmaker.
That's why for the next HC, NU needs to hire someone who will helm one side of the ball (i.e. - Day at dOSU, Saban at Bama, Riley at USC, etc).
That way, the HC only needs to keep hiring coordinators on one side of the ball (w/ the assumption that they are successful enough to get a more lucrative opportunity).
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Our offense has sucked for as long as I have remembered. Really since Persa at least. Some flashes when Siemian came in for relief and Thorson’s sophomore year.
Complementary football they said. The reality was that we could still win with a shitty offense, because we had a great Defense.
Then Hank retired. Now, we have a shitty offense and a shitty defense. The offense is no worse than it has been. In some ways its even better this year than most years under McCall. At least we have demonstrated moments this year where we could move the ball and score some points.
But, the D now blows. And the O is still the same. So you get what we have now. The O and D are truly now complementary or at least worthy of each other, though not in a good way, of course.
And it ain’t recruiting or the talent (it kills me that people still point to that). Recruiting and talent deficits can explain why we couldn’t get over the hump and beat dOSU and win B1G titles. Recruiting and talent deficits don’t explain losses to middling FCS and MAC teams. We have had better recruiting than Duke. We have outrecruited Illinois and they seem to be doing better (and kicked the eff out of us last year, though like SIU and Miami, they didn’t have a single player on their roster that picked Illinois over NU, and still don’t except maybe Terah), because (wait for it) THEY HAVE DECENT COACHES finally.
Complementary football they said. The reality was that we could still win with a shitty offense, because we had a great Defense.
Then Hank retired. Now, we have a shitty offense and a shitty defense. The offense is no worse than it has been. In some ways its even better this year than most years under McCall. At least we have demonstrated moments this year where we could move the ball and score some points.
But, the D now blows. And the O is still the same. So you get what we have now. The O and D are truly now complementary or at least worthy of each other, though not in a good way, of course.
And it ain’t recruiting or the talent (it kills me that people still point to that). Recruiting and talent deficits can explain why we couldn’t get over the hump and beat dOSU and win B1G titles. Recruiting and talent deficits don’t explain losses to middling FCS and MAC teams. We have had better recruiting than Duke. We have outrecruited Illinois and they seem to be doing better (and kicked the eff out of us last year, though like SIU and Miami, they didn’t have a single player on their roster that picked Illinois over NU, and still don’t except maybe Terah), because (wait for it) THEY HAVE DECENT COACHES finally.
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Well said. We kind of got used to shitty offense. We had one top 80 offense since 2012. Even lousy Iowa is better than that.
The defense and kicking are inexcusable. Fitz should know how to do that part by now.
It's not hard to figure out. It's the coaching. Good coaches win. Other teams make changes (notably Duke and TCU) even if they have sacred cows as coaches. Fitz need to fire about 5 assistants.
Such a shame, because we used to have top quartile offenses regularly under Walker. The complementary football people will say that the price was having a Colby D. Bull effing S.
Now we have a bottom quartile defense and a bottom quartile offense to match. Whoop dee doo.
False.
Scoring offense:
1999 110/114
2000 10/116
2001 38/117
2002 88/117
2003 94/117
2004 67/120
2005 28/119
Two years out of 7 is hardly "regularly".
I'd give him a pass, just like I do for Fitz, on year one. St. Barney left him a sh1tpile. Further, although not top quartile, I hope we can agree that 38/117 isn't bad.
I won't die on this hill. I respect Coach Walker, but I don't long for 41-38 losses. That said, Fitz is in his 17TH year and is awash in resources. He is (somehow) still widely revered as a coach who does more with less and whose teams play tough, disciplined football. Seen any of that lately? Or a reliable kicker?
