How good are *REALLY* these Wildcats?

[FeliSilvestris]

First, congrats to players and coaches on a solid 7-4 B1G start. Great to be in a position to speculate about making the NCAA T this late in the season. The cats are obviously a good team.

That said, we should REALISTICALLY evaluate our performance, in order to determine how good we REALLY are versus the competition, and our chances of making the NCAA T.

What have we ACTUALLY accomplished?

Here it is:

Of our 7 B1G victories, over half, 4 to be exact, have come against Rutgers, Nebby and PSU. These 3 are almost certainly among the 4 weakest B1G programs considering recent history (b4 and after they joined the conference). Neither is particularly horrendous this year, nor is having a "break out" season. Basically playing at the level of their reputation, roughly, which isn't much.

Another was a 2-pt V in Columbus. In most seasons that would be a great resume-building win. NOT this season, since OSU is only 4-7, about the same as PSU and Nebby, and worth about the same as beating those 2 (see above).

There is also a comfortable win vs another (historical) big-name school: Indy. Unfortunately they are just below .500 in the B1G, and hence not much better than the previously mentioned team.

That leaves an impressive rout of IOA, a solid program which on occasions challenges the conference elite. This is our ONLY win over a team with a winning conf record. But IOA is just half-a-game over .500 and not much better that others mentioned.

THOSE ARE ALL OUR B1G WINS. All over teams with losing B1G records, except for IOA which is only 1/2-game over .500!

Along the way, we have managed to lose to Illy (4-8), Minny (4-6) and MSU (6-5).
Our other loss was a rout by #16 8-3 Purdue. Nothing shameful, but that was our only game against this years conference elite, which also includes #7 Wiscy and #21 Mary.

I am sorry but the above is NOT the resume of even a bubble team!!

We have 7 games left, and unfortunately 3 of them are against the conference elite (see above). While the cats could conceivable win all 3, most would expect them to go 0-3. Additionally, there are tough road games at Illy and Indy. NU should be happy if it steals one of these 2. NU's best shots are at home against Mich (which is a bit weaker than normal, but still near .500), and against Rutgers (likely the only game in which the cats will be clear favorites).

Conclusion: In all probability, the cats will add at most a couple of wins the rest of the way. They will NOT be in the bubble, but almost surely make the NIT.

 

[FeralFelidae]

Well look who slithered out from under his rock!

 

[spartcat]

Well, I would agree that as of now we have accomplished exactly zero of our goals. We haven't locked up a winning conference record, surpassed our all-time season victory record, beaten a ranked team, or made any post-season tournament. On the other hand I wouldn't want to project with any certainty that the rest of our season will simply be a continuation of our last 2 games. If we can get back to as full a roster as we had 2 weeks ago, we could and should return to the level of competitiveness that we showed before Purdue. At that level, we could beat anybody in the conference on a given day. At that level we could win 3 or 4 more games before the tournament. At that level we will be dancing, my glass-is-half-empty colleague in purple.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

If we can get back to as full a roster as we had 2 weeks ago, we could and should return to the level of competitiveness that we showed before Purdue. At that level, we could beat anybody in the conference on a given day. At that level we could win 3 or 4 more games before the tournament. At that level we will be dancing,

I hope you will be proven right.
I caution that some of our early success created an illusion of strength, because we didn't consider the level of competition, as we beat the likes of Rutg, Nebby and PSU. Likewise our OSU win was evaluated by the name of the opponent, as opposed to their CURRENT level of play. Anyhow, we shall see.

P.S. We haven't been to the postseason under the current admin. If we 'only' make the NIT it could be viewed as the accomplishment of a modest goal, for this staff.

 

[Sec.112]

I know a few guys on Twitter who go out of their way to bash the program with fairly obvious observations cloaked as brilliant insight and GRAND declarations of what has already happened. Like you, we never find their "brilliance" or nuance ahead of the curve.

You should look them up.

 

[CommodoresAndCats]

In any given season roughly half the teams you play will end up with sub .500 conference records. So by simply taking care of business against the bottom half and beating a few winning teams you will be in the upper half of the conference. Right now 8 of the 14 teams in the big ten have losing records.

The fact is the Illinois lose hurt... a lot. A big part of our resume was that we didn't have any RPI sub 50 losses. I'd say right now we are back on the bubble, but probably on the right side of it. I think we need at least 4 more the rest of the way between regular season and BTT. Fortunately the bubble itself isn't that strong this year, a lot of teams have questionable resumes so we won't be alone when selection sunday comes.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

First, congrats to players and coaches on a solid 7-4 B1G start. Great to be in a position to speculate about making the NCAA T this late in the season. The cats are obviously a good team.

That said, we should REALISTICALLY evaluate our performance, in order to determine how good we REALLY are versus the competition, and our chances of making the NCAA T.

What have we ACTUALLY accomplished?

Here it is:

Of our 7 B1G victories, over half, 4 to be exact, have come against Rutgers, Nebby and PSU. These 3 are almost certainly among the 4 weakest B1G programs considering recent history (b4 and after they joined the conference). Neither is particularly horrendous this year, nor is having a "break out" season. Basically playing at the level of their reputation, roughly, which isn't much.

Another was a 2-pt V in Columbus. In most seasons that would be a great resume-building win. NOT this season, since OSU is only 4-7, about the same as PSU and Nebby, and worth about the same as beating those 2 (see above).

There is also a comfortable win vs another (historical) big-name school: Indy. Unfortunately they are just below .500 in the B1G, and hence not much better than the previously mentioned team.

That leaves an impressive rout of IOA, a solid program which on occasions challenges the conference elite. This is our ONLY win over a team with a winning conf record. But IOA is just half-a-game over .500 and not much better that others mentioned.

THOSE ARE ALL OUR B1G WINS. All over teams with losing B1G records, except for IOA which is only 1/2-game over .500!

Along the way, we have managed to lose to Illy (4-8), Minny (4-6) and MSU (6-5).
Our other loss was a rout by #16 8-3 Purdue. Nothing shameful, but that was our only game against this years conference elite, which also includes #7 Wiscy and #21 Mary.

I am sorry but the above is NOT the resume of even a bubble team!!

We have 7 games left, and unfortunately 3 of them are against the conference elite (see above). While the cats could conceivable win all 3, most would expect them to go 0-3. Additionally, there are tough road games at Illy and Indy. NU should be happy if it steals one of these 2. NU's best shots are at home against Mich (which is a bit weaker than normal, but still near .500), and against Rutgers (likely the only game in which the cats will be clear favorites).

Conclusion: In all probability, the cats will add at most a couple of wins the rest of the way. They will NOT be in the bubble, but almost surely make the NIT.

Not a single mention of the first two months of the season (that's half of the games NU has played and something the committee prioritizes) or any reference to the metrics that CLEARLY show NU as tournament calibre team (such as 8 top 100 victories).

This is not an informative post, just a long ramble.

 

[Styre]

I hope you will be proven right.
I caution that some of our early success created an illusion of strength, because we didn't consider the level of competition, as we beat the likes of Rutg, Nebby and PSU.

This is true insofar as we probably aren't good enough to start 7-2 against a normal distribution of teams rather than the weak distribution we faced in the front half of conference play this season.

However, that does not mean that we are not tournament-caliber. The Illinois loss was a blow, but this team is still more likely to make the tournament than not.

Also - if we lose the next two games, which is a reasonable possibility, people will be lined up on the ledge, but the easiest route to the tournament will still be open to us at that point.

 

[Hungry Jack]

All of Feli's posts taste like chicken.

 

[Sec.112]

Not ... any reference to the metrics that CLEARLY show NU as tournament calibre team (such as 8 top 100 victories).

Haven't you heard the news, CCF? The committee is no longer concerned with road wins. Their most-important metric is now a new one developed by Ken Pomeroy and Jerry Palm in conjunction with baseball's Bill James, "CRH," Considering Recent History.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

However, that does not mean that we are not tournament-caliber. The Illinois loss was a blow, but this team is still more likely to make the tournament than not.

I hope I will be eating crow a few weeks from now. Lots of it.

However, a team that essentially hasn't beaten anyone with a conference winning record (except for IOA who is above .500 by a hair), and has lost badly to its only ranked B1G opponent, while losing to a mediocre and 2 losing teams is NOWHERE NEAR T-caliber.

To get close they should take at least 2 of 3 against PU/Wiscy/Mary, while losing at most one from Indy/Mich/Illy and definitely beating Rutgers (while not harming their case at the B1G-T). That's going 5-2 or better (including 2-1 against the B1G "top-3") the rest of the way.

I do NOT see it happening (especially the 1st condition) since we lost by 20+ the only time we faced the top 3, and looked very vulnerable in losing to Illy, Minny and a mediocre MSU. 2-5 or worse seems far more likely to me.

 

[Styre]

To get close they should take at least 2 of 3 against PU/Wiscy/Mary, while losing at most one from Indy/Mich/Illy and definitely beating Rutgers (while not harming their case at the B1G-T). That's going 5-2 or better (including 2-1 against the B1G "top-3") the rest of the way.

If they do all of that, they will not "get close," they will be like a 6 seed. That's a 12-6 conference record (+BTT) with multiple T25 wins and the worst loss to Illinois.

I don't expect them to do all of that, but they're not as far away as you think they are. As long as the non-conference schedule strength doesn't plummet in the next month, that won't change.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

If they do all of that, they will not "get close," they will be like a 6 seed. That's a 12-6 conference record (+BTT) with multiple T25 wins and the worst loss to Illinois. I don't expect them to do all of that, but they're not as far away as you think they are.

The thing is that this years B1G BkB is very special. Huge-name teams are extremely weak (OSU) or just mediocre (MSU, Indy). Teams that have at times challenged the conference elite this year either weak (Illy, Minny) or just mediocre (IOA, Michy). Depending on what happens over the next few weeks (and how others do) the number of B1G teams making the NCAA-T may be historically low.

In 2004 (with only 11 teams) the B1G had only THREE teams in the NCAA-T. In 2008 it did only a bit better getting 4 teams in (also out of 11). It wouldn't shock me if the B1G only gets 3-4 teams in, this year (although there are now 14 teams). So, finishing 4th, may not be enough.

Another thing that will affect the cats chances is that some of the good-sounding early-season wins, no longer sound so good. The cats best-sounding NonCon wins were, UTx, WF and Dayton (and perhaps DePaul).
UTx is 2nd to last in the B12.
WF is 10th in the ACC with a 5-7 record.
Dayton is leading its conference, but no one in the entire conference is ranked.
DePaul is dead last in the BigE.

Buttler is still NOT a bad loss. But ND is no longer ranked after losing 5 of its last 7.

Bottom line: the B1G relative weakness, and the cats lack of any resume-building NonCon win will severely complicate their chances of making the T even in then (to me unlikely) event they finish strong (vs the top-3 and the mid-tier teams remaining in their schedule).

 

[LetsGoRed!]

How good are these Wildcats, REALLY?

We shall see. Best of luck on Sunday!

 

[NURoseBowl]

Can't begin to explain why, but I just have a good feeling about that game.

 

[Walker Fan]

NU won 6 straight Big 10 games and have 18 wins by early February, that has not happened since the 1930s so that is accomplishing something. They have beat a tourney team in Dayton and Wake Forest who has a RPI in the 30s. They have beat the teams they are supposed to beat when Lindsey was on the floor and that has never happened before. Even with the loss on Tuesday, NU's ranking is in the 30s which means they are in the tourney and most experts have them between a no. 7-8 seed. Since some of the bloggers on this site have no clue about the tourney, there are approximately 44 at-large bids (nos. 1-11 seeds). Since NU is in the low 30s, they are still in.

NU has also accomplished having three quality all-around Big 10 players in Law, Lindsey and McIntosh. When one of those players is out (e.g. Lindsey), the team will have a drop off on offense and defense. NU also has an injured all-around player who is redshirting in Falzon and a 4-star player in Ivaunauskas who we have been told is a quality player and was a highly rated recruit that will provide some punch off the bench next season so Law won't have to play 38 minutes a game. Lastly, Pardon is a developing player, but still inconsistent against taller players. We lost on Tuesday, because we only played 7 guys and Skelly and Taphorn were off and Lumpkin gave NU 0 points while the Illini's bench in Finke and Nichols scored 21 points. To beat the Big 10 top teams you need all-around players and not players who are too limited on offense and defense. Those players can not play 30 minutes or more. Barrett Benson needs to play more off the bench. That is a mistake Collins made on Tuesday night.

Also, the Big 10 is projected to get 7-8 teams in the tourney and not a historically low number and the ACC may get 10 teams in the tourney and yes, Wake Forest is in the mix. The number of mid-majors who could steal at at-large bids is lower than most years which means more teams from power conferences will make it.

Lastly, for all you BC huggers, Holy Cross is 7th in the Patriot League behind Colgate and has a 12-14 record and the Patriot League has figured out the one trick ponies' coaching style. NU accomplished a lot when they fired him and hired a young, competitive rising coaching star in Collins who has a lot more competitive fire and knowledge of what it takes to have sustained success at a big time college basketball level than we have had in the past 30 plus years. So yes, Phillips accomplished a lot by hiring him.

 

[pawildcat]

In case it hadn't occurred to the guy who submitted the OP, a team usually is one of the top teams in the league precisely because it can beat the teams that are .500 or below. The Cubs just won a baseball championship during a season in which they largely feasted on bad teams. If you don't beat the bad teams, you are one of them.

 

[Styre]

Even with the loss on Tuesday, NU's ranking is in the 30s which means they are in the tourney and most experts have them between a no. 7-8 seed. Since some of the bloggers on this site have no clue about the tourney, there are approximately 44 at-large bids (nos. 1-11 seeds). Since NU is in the low 30s, they are still in.

They're RPI 42 right now. That's still in, but that's not a 7-8 seed.

 

[Styre]

In case it hadn't occurred to the guy who submitted the OP, a team usually is one of the top teams in the league precisely because it can beat the teams that are .500 or below. The Cubs just won a baseball championship during a season in which they largely feasted on bad teams. If you don't beat the bad teams, you are one of them.

While true, the Cubs also went 31-25 against teams that finished over .500. If you beat all the bad teams, but lose to all the good teams, you're not necessarily that good. Fortunately, NU has several upcoming chances to beat the teams atop the conference - and they may not even need to do so to get in, because not all of their wins have been over "bad" teams.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

While true, the Cubs also went 31-25 against teams that finished over .500. If you beat all the bad teams, but lose to all the good teams, you're not necessarily that good.

That. And participation in the MLB postseason is not decided by a committee that must subjectively weigh all sort of factors (quality-wins, bad-losses, injuries, etc) in order to rank postseason candidates.

Fortunately, NU has several upcoming chances to beat the teams atop the conference - and they may not even need to do so to get in, because not all of their wins have been over "bad" teams.

I reckon that if NU loses its 3 remaining games against the B1G "top 3" it will need MASSIVE help to get in (like a lot of bubble teams under-performing), even if it manages to win at Illy/Indy (far easier said than done) and vs Michy (somewhat likely but by no means a sure thing) and Rutgers.

In that scenario, NU would have lost to EVERY better-than-mediocre major-conference team it faced throughout the season, including 4 games to the B1G only 3 ranked teams, while still losing to several mediocre or worse teams. VERY difficult for anyone to get an AT-bid, under such conditions.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Also, the Big 10 is projected to get 7-8 teams in the tourney and not a historically low number

That's A LOT of bids for a conference that as of today has:
- NO team in the top 5
- only ONE team in the top 15
- only THREE teams in the top 25 of the country

Lots of mediocre B1G teams have inflated W/L records thanks to weak OOC opponents. The committee will figure it out, in due time.

the ACC may get 10 teams in the tourney and yes, Wake Forest is in the mix.

The ACC seems far stronger than the B1G this year, withe FIVE teams among the nation's top 18, including #4 Louisville. Whether that translates to a double-digit number of bids is rather doubtful.
WF is 5-7 incon and only 2-games over .500 over all, with upcoming probable losses to Lou and Duke, and a tough game at VT. Doubtful they will even be in the bubble when all is said and done.

 

[MysticCat]

Lastly, for all you BC huggers, Holy Cross is 7th in the Patriot League behind Colgate and has a 12-14 record and the Patriot League has figured out the one trick ponies' coaching style.
______________

Yeah. Since he inherited the worse team in the Patriot League last year he hasn't really done much of anything.

LOL!

 

[Walker Fan]

6-7 and 12-14 in the Patriot League. Yes, Holy Cross got lucky in their conference tournament. Ooopee! When they played a school from a Power 5 school. They got obliterated. Now, teams in the league know they run the same defense and offense and that is why they are behind Colgate. Great coaching! Not.

As for the Feral Silvestris, where a team is ranked now does not mean a thing. Right now UW, PU, Md., NU and Minny are in. Out of UM, MSU and IU, I would guess that two of the three are in. It will make for an interesting next three weeks which we have only seen rarely. Too bad you can not enjoy the ride because of your predisposition.

 

[Styre]

6-7 and 12-14 in the Patriot League. Yes, Holy Cross got lucky in their conference tournament. Ooopee! When they played a school from a Power 5 school. They got obliterated. Now, teams in the league know they run the same defense and offense and that is why they are behind Colgate. Great coaching! Not.

This is both petty and stupid.

 

[Sec.112]

This is both petty and stupid.

I thought those were the themes of this thread.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

where a team is ranked now does not mean a thing. Right now UW, PU, Md., NU and Minny are in. Out of UM, MSU and IU, I would guess that two of the three are in. .

Of course the number of ranked teams a conference has does matter because it relates to THE STRENGTH of the conference, which in turns influences how many AT bids the committee allocates to that conference.

Care to guess how many B1G teams finished ranked in 2004, when ONLY THREE B1G teams made the T?

I'll help you.

ONLY TWO.

Do you think it was a coincidence that a conference with only 2 top-25 teams late in the season 'happened' to get ONLY TWO AL bids?

That year Michy finished with a 23-11 W/L record and still was left out. Why? Because the conference was perceived as weak. Other teams with similar records out of stronger (that year) conferences got the bids.

Same could happen this year. And keep in mind that Mary is #21, and Purdue was #23 recently when it played NU. Either or BOTH could drop out before selection Sunday!

 

[mikewebb68]

This is both petty and stupid.

It is an approriate response to OPs typicall trolling after a bad loss, imo.

 

[mikewebb68]

Of course the number of ranked teams a conference has does matter because it relates to THE STRENGTH of the conference, which in turns influences how many AT bids the committee allocates to that conference.

Care to guess how many B1G teams finished ranked in 2004, when ONLY THREE B1G teams made the T?

I'll help you.

ONLY TWO.

Do you think it was a coincidence that a conference with only 2 top-25 teams late in the season 'happened' to get only 3 T-bids?

That years Michy finished with a 23-11 W/L record and still was left out. Why? Because the conference was perceived as weak. Other teams with similar records out of stronger (that year) conferences got the bids.

Similar could happen this year. And keep in mind that Mary is #21, and Purdue was #23 recently when it played NU. Either or BOTH could drop out before selection Sunday!

You're such a doofus. The BIG is not getting 3 bids, They are getting 7, minimum. I would be willing to wager you a board ban on it (loser does not post on the Basketball board for one year)

 

[EagerFan]

We won't really know how good the team is until the season is over, will we? I like our chances of having the first winning season in forever. Our success seems truly dependent on having Law, Lindsey and Mac healthy and at least two of them playing well on a given night. What I like even more is that the future continues to look bright.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

You're such a doofus. The BIG is not getting 3 bids, They are getting 7, minimum. I would be willing to wager you a board ban on it (loser does not post on the Basketball board for one year)

The BIG is getting 3 bids. #alternativefacts

 

[FeliSilvestris]

The BIG is getting 3 bids. #alternativefacts

Nobody knows how many bids the B1G will get. What we DO know is that as of today the B1G only has 3 teams in the top 25, and only ONE in the top 15. We further know that in 2004 the B1G got only TWO AL bids (which left 23-11 Mich out), and 'coincidentally' it had ONLY TWO ranked teams in the last weeks of the season.
If the B1G enters selection Sunday with 3 or fewer top-25 teams, will history repeat itself (sort of)? We shall know in due time.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Nobody knows how many bids the B1G will get. What we DO know is that as of today the B1G only has 3 teams in the top 25, and only ONE in the top 15.

Perhaps, you should familiarize yourself with the actual metrics the committee uses for selection (the polls are insignificant)? Ya know, the same ones all the bracketologists use when they predict 6-8 bids for the BIG.

K, thanks.

 

[mikewebb68]

Nobody knows how many bids the B1G will get. What we DO know is that as of today the B1G only has 3 teams in the top 25, and only ONE in the top 15. We further know that in 2004 the B1G got only TWO AL bids (which left 23-11 Mich out), and 'coincidentally' it had ONLY TWO ranked teams in the last weeks of the season.
If the B1G enters selection Sunday with 3 or fewer top-25 teams, will history repeat itself (sort of)? We shall know in due time.

I know the BIG will receive more than 3 NCAA bids; anyone with half a brain knows this. If you want to wager that they will receive 3 or less, let's do it.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Perhaps, you should familiarize yourself with the actual metrics the committee uses for selection (the polls are insignificant)? Ya know, the same ones all the bracketologists.

Apply your own advice to yourself.
There are no "official" metrics that the committee must follow in order to allocate the AL bids. Each committee member has full sovereignty. They are people like us, and of course can read rankings (both human and computerized), look at W/L records, Look at SoS, how certain team did against certain other(s), and so on.

If you believe that it is a coincidence that the year in which the B1G only had 2 top-25 teams is the same one in which the B1G only got 2 AL bids (leaving out a 23-11 Michigan team, among others) go ahead and believe it. It's your damn problem.

Heck, go ahead and also believe that it was also a coincidence that in 2008 , when the B1G had only THREE top-25 teams most of the season, the B1G also got only THREE AL bids (which left out 24-13 OSU, among others). It's your damn business.

 

[mikewebb68]

Wager is still there for the taking. Willing to back up your 3 BIG teams or less will make the tourney talk with actual action ? I eagerly await you response.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Apply your own advice to yourself.
There are no "official" metrics that the committee must follow in order to allocate the AL bids.

Weak, uninformed response. No point in continuing this silliness.

I really hope you take MikeWebb up on his bet.

 

[FeliSilvestris]

Weak, uninformed response. No point in continuing this silliness.

Uninformed are you. Educate yourself on the factors taken into account by the committee in order to do their job. They take into account all sort of things, most of which are IMPOSSIBLE to predict, when so many teams have about a third of their conference schedule still outstanding (not to mention their conference T's).
As I said, NOBODY knows how many B1G teams will be in the NCAA T this year. We DO KNOW that in past recent tournaments very few AL bids have been awarded to B1G teams (2-3 in specific cases). 'Coincidentally' those have been years in which the B1G (LIKE THIS YEAR) had VERY FEW top-25 teams by season's end. THAT IS CERTAIN.

 

[mikewebb68]

Uninformed are you. Educate yourself on the factors taken into account by the committee in order to do their job. They take into account all sort of things, most of which are IMPOSSIBLE to predict, when so many teams have about a third of their conference schedule still outstanding (not to mention their conference T's).
As I said, NOBODY knows how many B1G teams will be in the NCAA T this year. We DO KNOW that in past recent tournaments very few AL bids have been awarded to B1G teams (2-3 in specific cases). 'Coincidentally' those have been years in which the B1G (LIKE THIS YEAR) had VERY FEW top-25 teams by season's end. THAT IS CERTAIN.

I know there will be more than 3. Board ban wager remains open for you to back your talk up.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Respond to MikeWebb's offer to take you up on your bet, Felis.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1]

Uninformed are you. Educate yourself on the factors taken into account by the committee in order to do their job. They take into account all sort of things, most of which are IMPOSSIBLE to predict, when so many teams have about a third of their conference schedule still outstanding (not to mention their conference T's).
As I said, NOBODY knows how many B1G teams will be in the NCAA T this year. We DO KNOW that in past recent tournaments very few AL bids have been awarded to B1G teams (2-3 in specific cases). 'Coincidentally' those have been years in which the B1G (LIKE THIS YEAR) had VERY FEW top-25 teams by season's end. THAT IS CERTAIN.

Spoken like someone who has no clue. GOOD JOB.