If we beat Penn State, do we get the coveted double bye?
- Thread starter Titanium999
- Start date
We need to win at least one of our last two games, if we lose out, I don't think there's a path to a double bye.
We probably have to win both games. MD has tiebreaker, as does MICH and while we have tiebreaker over IN, if they were to win out...
NU cannot clinch a double-bye with a win against PSU. With 12 wins, NU could still finish in fifth place, behind Purdue, Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan.
However, if NU beats PSU - and based on the results of other games - they may well have clinched a double-bye before the tip with Rutgers on Sunday night.
However, if NU beats PSU - and based on the results of other games - they may well have clinched a double-bye before the tip with Rutgers on Sunday night.
That is what I am thinking. All the other teams have tough games! PSU had Rutgers beat yesterday!
Run through all the possibilities to your heart's content:
mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker
Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net
Winning out ensures the double bye, full stop. Beating PSU but not Rutgers would require Maryland to lose out, and other help from IU, Iowa, Illinois and/or Michigan for us to get it. Beating Rutgers but not PSU is actually much better, as it knocks Rutgers out of top-4 contention.
So right, now, for the midweek games, there are 64 scenarios as the Purdue-Wisconsin game doesn't have any bearing on where Purdue is in the standings and Wisconsin can't get the double bye.
If we beat PSU, we are guaranteed to be between 2nd-4th place heading into the weekend. We'll be in 2nd if both Michigan and Maryland lose, 4th if both Michigan and Maryland win, and 3rd in all other scenarios.
If we lose to PSU, we will be between 4th and 7th heading into the weekend. We'll be 4th or 5th if Iowa beats IU, we'll be 5th if IU beats Iowa, Michigan beats Illinois and Minnesota beats Rutgers, we'll be 7th if IU, Illinois and Rutgers all win, and we'll be 6th in all other combinations involving an IU win.
# of scenarios along with % of likelihood per KenPom for each team to be in at least 4th place heading into the weekend:
Purdue: 64 (100%)
MD: 48 (70.7%)
NU: 42 (68.5%)
IU: 30 (66.2%)
Mich: 42 (56.0%)
Iowa: 26 (24.9%)
Illini: 2 (10.3%)
Rutger: 2 (3.4%)
If we beat PSU, we are guaranteed to be between 2nd-4th place heading into the weekend. We'll be in 2nd if both Michigan and Maryland lose, 4th if both Michigan and Maryland win, and 3rd in all other scenarios.
If we lose to PSU, we will be between 4th and 7th heading into the weekend. We'll be 4th or 5th if Iowa beats IU, we'll be 5th if IU beats Iowa, Michigan beats Illinois and Minnesota beats Rutgers, we'll be 7th if IU, Illinois and Rutgers all win, and we'll be 6th in all other combinations involving an IU win.
# of scenarios along with % of likelihood per KenPom for each team to be in at least 4th place heading into the weekend:
Purdue: 64 (100%)
MD: 48 (70.7%)
NU: 42 (68.5%)
IU: 30 (66.2%)
Mich: 42 (56.0%)
Iowa: 26 (24.9%)
Illini: 2 (10.3%)
Rutger: 2 (3.4%)
5th is not bad, lose the buy but get a winnable game. A. BIg tourney win would be nice even if an extra game. That would help getvto record win season.
Indeed. There are scenarios that could have NU anywhere from #1 to #9.
Indiana lose a game you say??
Edit: I played around with the seeding calculator linked above and Iowa beating Indiana tonight actually doesn't help us that much because Iowa would jump us if they win out and we go 1-1. Would need Nebby to beat Iowa if we go 1-1.
Basically, this weekends game at Rutgers will probably be a play-in game for a double bye
Ask and ye shall receive. I don't usually feel warm feelings towards Iowa, but when I do...
You’re right. Apparently the #2 tiebreaker isn’t record vs the top seed only, it’s record vs the team directly above you, which looks like it could be Maryland. There’s basically no way NU comes out of a 12-8 jumble with a double bye without something very silly, like Minnesota beating Rutgers, happening.
After Iowa's win tonight, (MSU-NEB and WIS-PUR games don't have an impact here):
# of scenarios along with % of likelihood per KenPom for each team to be in at least 4th place heading into the weekend:
Purdue: 16 (100%)
Iowa: 13 (86.0%)
NU: 12 (73.4%)
MD: 12 (70.7%)
Mich: 10 (55.4%)
IU: 1 (14.5%)
Illini: 0 (0.0%)
Rutger: 0 (0.0%)
# of scenarios along with % of likelihood per KenPom for each team to be in at least 4th place heading into the weekend:
Purdue: 16 (100%)
Iowa: 13 (86.0%)
NU: 12 (73.4%)
MD: 12 (70.7%)
Mich: 10 (55.4%)
IU: 1 (14.5%)
Rutger: 0 (0.0%)
Many thanks for this.
Current scenarios (prior to Wednesday games):
Win Conference with:
Two NU wins
Two Purdue losses
One loss each by Maryland and Michigan (either of their games)
To Secure Double-Bye Before Tip with Rutgers:
NU win over PSU, plus any of:
(1) Rutgers loss at Minnesota
(2) two Maryland losses
(3) Iowa loss vs. Nebraska AND two Michigan losses
To Secure Double-Bye despite a NU loss to PSU
NU win at Rutgers, plus any of:
(1) Michigan loss at Indiana
(2) Iowa loss vs. Nebraska
(3) Two Maryland losses
(4) Two Maryland wins AND Two Michigan wins
With the loss to PSU, the ‘Cats can no longer get the top seed, but depending on the outcome of other games, a seeding anywhere from #2 to #9 is possible.
Because the Rutgers game tips at 7:30 Sunday, we’ll know in advance if a win would get NU a double-bye or not.
Because the Rutgers game tips at 7:30 Sunday, we’ll know in advance if a win would get NU a double-bye or not.
