Is this the year?

[thewildcat2011]

Kenpom numbers are out, my tickets have arrived...it's time to ask the one all important question:

Is this the year NU basketball makes it to the tournament?

To make it a bit more productive, list 3 reasons yes and 3 reasons no.

Yes:
1. Brown will emerge as a reliable secondary ballhandler and above average scoring threat. He will push Lindsey and Ash for minutes, forcing them to take it up a notch or be benched.
2. Having Law back will be the difference in close games as he is a do-it-all glue guy who can be counted on to make a stop, grab a board, or get a bucket when it's absolutely needed.
3. Demps (high volume, low efficiency) will be replaced by a few players with medium volume, medium efficiency (maybe high efficiency depending on development), which means a more efficient overall offense...we're gonna score a lot.

No:
1. We will be mauled down low due to lack of experience and strength.
2. There will not be significant development from last year for a lot of guys and freshmen will not be ready to play any significant role.
3. No reliable, off-the-dribble scoring threat means the continuation of stagnant offense and long scoring drought.

 

[NJCat]

Kenpom numbers are out, my tickets have arrived...it's time to ask the one all important question:

Is this the year NU basketball makes it to the tournament?

No.

NU will dance in 2018, when BMac is a Senior.

 

[thewildcat2011]

No.

NU will dance in 2018, when BMac is a Senior.

See edit above.

 

[backdoorpass]

1. Brown will emerge as a reliable secondary ballhandler and above average scoring threat. He will push Lindsey and Ash for minutes, forcing them to take it up a notch or be benched.

I found it interesting that in the media day interviews, Collins and McIntosh both talked glowingly about Brown and how much he is going to help. They also talked about Scottie Lindsey. Neither one even mentioned Ash. Read into that what you will.

I came away from the media day interviews expecting a 9-man rotation to start the season looking something like:

BMac
Lindsey
Law
Falzon
Pardon
--
Skelly
Lumpkin
Brown
Benson

---

And my season prediction is: NCAA Tournament Bubble - maybe in; maybe not.

Go 'Cats!

 

[chicagocatfan24]

Was told yesterday Brown is projecting to get 15-20 a game at both the 1 and 2

 

[Medill90]

I lean more towards "yes" than "no."

The single biggest reason is that the roster now reflects Collins' vision of a college team. More athletic, more skilled, longer, and now with some experience. The are now capable of playing man, and on offense the principals have played together for 2+ years.

This team should look different than the previous three years. I started to write some comparisons and stopped. If this team doesn't play differently it raises some potentially large and concerning questions.

Regarding players....

Falzon really needs some love from the NU faithful. He was solid last year, helped in some very big wins. I have yet to be disappointed in his D or his rebounding. He's larger and he'll shoot better this year. I seem him as a big factor.

The talk about Scottie stepping up his seriousness is great. But the proof is in the pudding. Show it. As in every minute on the floor.

Dererk had another summer in the weight room. And another six months with coach BJ. And the offense will be more weaponized which should open some things up for Dererk.

I love the effort to diminish the quality of Law by some of the NU fan base. Law killed it at the end of his first Big Ten season. He shot lights out from three which helped him raise his 3 pt percentage over .333. He was the team's best rebounder. Best perimeter defender, and able to guard threes and quick fours. He's almost two years older. Two years of physical maturity. Two years of weight room. Two years of coaching. He's coming back a junior in everything but eligibility.

I think BMac is helped most by law's return. Law will make the quick cuts that, frankly, no one but Falzon did last year...Scottie rarely. BMac needs to shoot better in conference. Law helps that. A dead serious Scottie helps that. Falzon taking a sophomore step up helps that.

If the frosh can add anything it's gravy. Benson needs to eat some minutes for the team.

Did the hybrid Collins coached for three years have a higher ceiling than what is now close to purebred? The answer has more to do with the Coach and his vision and less to do with the talent which looks to be in place. There's no reason this team can't play better than last year.

They'll need to because the bottom third if the Big Ten, sans Rutgers, is getting a lot better.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Kenpom numbers are out, my tickets have arrived...it's time to ask the one all important question:

Is this the year NU basketball makes it to the tournament?

To make it a bit more productive, list 3 reasons yes and 3 reasons no.

Yes:
1. Brown will emerge as a reliable secondary ballhandler and above average scoring threat. He will push Lindsey and Ash for minutes, forcing them to take it up a notch or be benched.
2. Having Law back will be the difference in close games as he is a do-it-all glue guy who can be counted on to make a stop, grab a board, or get a bucket when it's absolutely needed.
3. Demps (high volume, low efficiency) will be replaced by a few players with medium volume, medium efficiency (maybe high efficiency depending on development), which means a more efficient overall offense...we're gonna score a lot.

No:
1. We will be mauled down low due to lack of experience and strength.
2. There will not be significant development from last year for a lot of guys and freshmen will not be ready to play any significant role.
3. No reliable, off-the-dribble scoring threat means the continuation of stagnant offense and long scoring drought.

Yes. This is the year.

1. Brown is the chosen one. He will emerge as a bonafide starter next to MacIntosh and lead the Cats in scoring.
2. Law is bigger and better and will demonstrate why he was the most heralded recruit to NU since Evan Eschmeyer
3. Demps will be replaced by Brown who will be high volume and high efficiency, and get to the line a ton each game.

No....
Can't think of any reasons really.

 

[VirginiaWildcat]

No. Too young and inexperienced of a frontline. Foul-trouble, leading to a few additional free points for the other team, as well as hurting our rebounding and interior defense as our bigs play in foul trouble.

I soooooo hope I'm wrong!! I do have growing confidence in Brown from all the good things I've heard.

 

[NJCat]

No. Too young and inexperienced of a frontline. Foul-trouble, leading to a few additional free points for the other team, as well as hurting our rebounding and interior defense as our bigs play in foul trouble.

We (for once) completely agree.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Ash surprise lot of folks he's fast and a player a good passer

 

[Walker Fan]

Great posts today. The route to the NIT and the NCAA begins with our 4 star talent's development. Law must become a leader on offense and defense and stop the talented wings in the Big 10 - Nigel Hayes - UW, Peter Jok - Iowa, Irvin - UM, Loving and Bates-Diop OSU, IU - sophomore SF who I won't try to spell his name, Edwards - Purdue, Malcolm Hill on UofI, etc. Law must also score in double digits. Falzon needs to become a top scorer and continue to develop on defense. Pardon needs to work in tandem with McIntosh on the pick and roll and pick and pop on the baseline. Lindsey needs to hit the open jumper and learn to dribble, drive and draw fouls. Brown needs to create offense and be a playmaker. Benson needs to be a banger off the bench. Also, for those not paying attention, most NCAA do not have the traditional back to the basket 7' footers, but more mobile centers in the 6'8"-6'10" variety (see Ethan Happ of UW and the lumbering slow big men like Isaac Hawes of PU are much less abundant).

 

[IGNORE2]

I found it interesting that in the media day interviews, Collins and McIntosh both talked glowingly about Brown and how much he is going to help. They also talked about Scottie Lindsey. Neither one even mentioned Ash. Read into that what you will.

I came away from the media day interviews expecting a 9-man rotation to start the season looking something like:

BMac
Lindsey
Law
Falzon
Pardon
--
Skelly
Lumpkin
Brown
Benson

---

And my season prediction is: NCAA Tournament Bubble - maybe in; maybe not.

Go 'Cats!

I could live with that rotation and see how it could be a successful season. Assuming no injuries to Mac, high minutes for Brown would have to mean good things.

 

[JournCat]

We have five rotation players with a lot of potential and signs that they could be great: Law, Falzon, Lindsey, Skelly, and Pardon. I think two or three of them will become Big Ten starter level this year. Add a star PG in Mac and a solid defensive forward in Lumpkin, and that's a seven-man rotation that could be about as good as we've had. What it's missing is a really good ball-handler to take the pressure off Mac. We all hope Isiah Brown will be that guy, and if he is, we'll go to the tournament in March. But I think it'll take one more year for everything to come together.

 

[Medill90]

For you "next year is the year guys", you get that the league will be much tougher top to bottom, right?

 

[NJCat]

For you "next year is the year guys", you get that the league will be much tougher top to bottom, right?

That makes no difference to the Cats chances to Dance this season. Not like there is some conscious choice being made to Dance in 2018 versus 2017.

 

[ricko654321]

That makes no difference to the Cats chances to Dance this season. Not like there is some conscious choice being made to Dance in 2018 versus 2017.

And theoretically the selection committee should adjust for that, account for our performance and record relative to our schedule. So if the league is much tougher next year, and we finish 8th this year and 8th again next year there should be a much better chance the marginal 8th team gets in.

But...to the original question I will say that I think 7, maybe 8 conf wins is a reasonable expectation again, but I would put the odds of us making it at about 30%. 9-9 is definitely not out of the question, which puts us in nice shape, and while there are many good to very good teams in conference -- we've seen again and again that in the B1G anything can happen in any given game. Let's string together more wins than losses.

 

[NUCat320]

I don't think this is the year.

Who's gonna score the ball?

Last year's team was 8-10 in conference, and this year's team loses two three-year cornerstones. Mac is consistently a great 2 1/2-month player (the regular season lasts 3 1/2 months), and neither Law not Falzon look to be dominant scorers.

The success seems to hinge on, say, two of the three happening:
- Mac making a leap into the stratosphere (think 18/10, November 15-March 5, or whenever the season goes)
- Lindsey or Brown or Law or Falzon becoming a *dominant* game-to-game presence (think Shurna to Mac's Juice, never without Demps' streakiness)
- Benson and Pardon forming a dominant tandem (again, 16+/12+)

Each of those is a tall order, but I hope all three happen.

 

[Medill90]

That makes no difference to the Cats chances to Dance this season. Not like there is some conscious choice being made to Dance in 2018 versus 2017.

No difference to the chances this season. But potentially indicates that the Cats' chances are better this season than next.

 

[NJCat]

No difference to the chances this season. But potentially indicates that the Cats' chances are better this season than next.

Agree as far as competitive balance in the Big 10. But NU should also be better in 2017-18 than 2016-17. No significant player losses and at least 1 better new player.

 

[hdhntr1]

No difference to the chances this season. But potentially indicates that the Cats' chances are better this season than next.

Why would they have the best chance this year? Who do we lose? Sanjay? Tap? Where as Benson, Brown etc will have another year and Rap would likely get minutes. Have to think that will offset any losses.

 

[NJCat]

Why would they have the best chance this year? Who do we lose? Sanjay? Tap? Where as Benson, Brown etc will have another year and Rap would likely get minutes. Have to think that will offset any losses.

Yeah, adding Rap and Gaines far outweighs losing Sanjay and the (very attractive) Tap.

 

[Catreporter]

After watching practice Tuesday, I will be surprised if Law is not a double figure scorer this season.

 

[NJCat]

After watching practice Tuesday, I will be surprised if Law is not a double figure scorer this season.

Very encouraging to hear!

 

[PURPLECAT88]

Yeah, adding Rap and Gaines far outweighs losing Sanjay and the (very attractive) Tap.

But does it outweigh not playing any true home games? I fear next year's Horizon (OK, Allstate Arena)-based team will struggle.

 

[NJCat]

But does it outweigh not playing any true home games? I fear next year's Horizon (OK, Allstate Arena)-based team will struggle.

Look at the Horizon games as being neutral court games. Obviously not as good as WRA, but the lack of juice will hurt the visitors more than NU. And the juice only flows at WRA for Big 10 games, the OOC games are pretty dead affairs anyway.

 

[Sec.112]

I like the original yes-no format, Wildcat2011. Good idea.

No -
1) I'll stay with my original barometer - Lumpkin's minutes. If the team (more specificaly the glut of 3s and 4s) has not improved enough to have him playing less that 20 m/g in league play, there's big trouble.
2) The two-headed monster at center is constantly in foul trouble.
3) I agree with the question above, "Who's gonna score the ball?" This could be answered in a number of way, but I'm concerned who will be NU's three-point threat. If Falzon shoots like last year and Brown has the freshman yips against quality B10 opponents, it's too easy to pack the middle and collapse on the centers.

Yes - (Oh to dream!! But I don't think these are out of the question.)
1) Law plays like everybody thinks he's going to play. I feel confident he'll provide what is needed on defense and the boards. But if he's a consistent three-point threat, that may be a game changer.
2) Any two players from the combination of Falzon, Brown, Lindsey and Barr/erk can combine for 23-24/game. They also need a 40-percent guy from either Falzon, Brown or Lindsey.
3) That adjusted defense efficiency number is less than 95. It HAS to be less than last year's 98.9.
4) Allow me to add another. I'll buy the "close game" narrative. Swing three of those close games from last year. They may need four.

 

[Catreporter]

Law was deadly from three on Tuesday. Really impressed by his all around game. Going to be exciting to see what he can do this year.

 

[FrancisSearle75]

It's fun to look back and see what we were thinking before the season even started.

 

[JournCat]

We have five rotation players with a lot of potential and signs that they could be great: Law, Falzon, Lindsey, Skelly, and Pardon. I think two or three of them will become Big Ten starter level this year. Add a star PG in Mac and a solid defensive forward in Lumpkin, and that's a seven-man rotation that could be about as good as we've had. What it's missing is a really good ball-handler to take the pressure off Mac. We all hope Isiah Brown will be that guy, and if he is, we'll go to the tournament in March. But I think it'll take one more year for everything to come together.

Gotta say ... this was not that bad.