Looking forward to next year

[Kat burglar]

I think next year will be a bit schedule dependent

We return everybody

We played NE, MN, IND and PSU 5 times. Would love to see us play 8 games against them next year.

Also Iowa loses Garza and Bohannon next year. Would love to play them twice.

Illinois probably loses Ayo and Kofi. Still have talent but it will be much closer.

That would be 12 games that we would be competitive against.

We should be competitive against Maryland as well.

Wisconsin may lose Reuvers, Ford, Potter and Trice. Uncertain if they return due to covid. If they leave those games are competitive.

We were competitive against MSU this year as well

2021 could look very interesting

 

[Sec.112]

You mentioned your hope in another post, Burglar. Sometimes I'm with ya, and sometimes I want to join the group pissing all over the program. I'm totally on the fence of what next year could be. However, I appreciate your attempt to find the positive.

My first thought is also this assessment of what the league will be next year. At some point during the off-season, I'd like to look at this more. I'm leaning in your direction, but I'm also interested to see who has what coming in.

But the slide in experience across the league should help. I'm especially happy to see Wisconsin's team age will look more like a college team than a G League team. They lose Trice (24 yrs old) and Anderson (23). At least Potter and Reuvers are little more in the ballpark at 22.

But as always, the end of that UW bench has a bunch of size waiting to play.

 

[TheC]

But as always, the end of that UW bench has a bunch of size waiting to play.

This is often the issue. A lot of top programs in the league often have better players waiting in the wings then we have on the floor.

What I am hoping is that our senior players take on that attitude you sometimes see with seniors where they get a jolt of confidence and loss of fear since they have nothing left to lose in their final year. I'd love to see a more aggressive Nance and Kopp playing without fear.

 

[Kat burglar]

I'm not looking for our program to win the Big Ten anytime soon, if ever.

I would like a competitive team that can at least finish in the middle third. To me, that is success for NU Basketball.

Fitz has done a great job with football. But even Fitz had 6 losing conference records in his first 9 years. Since then it has been stellar for Northwestern.

I think being a basketball coach at Northwestern is very difficult for 2 main reasons. Admissions and bad history. If you are an all-state 4 star kid, why go to a losing program with what were crappy facilities? That is a tough sell.

I think this was the first full year with the new Performance training facility. Before that they were in a turn of the century (last century) gym. Ugh for a power 5 team. Why go here? That has all changed now but only recently.

What we need is success to build on.

We focus on 6-13 which doesn't cut it.

But the assumption is that we sucked last year, we sucked this year, we are going to suck next year so get rid of the coach and start over and suck for another 4 years.

I think that over simplifies things. I see improvement, even if it hasn't shown up in wins and losses yet. I think we would have been an NIT team this year if it was a normal year. I think next year we will be a top 50 team in Kenpom and be a bubble NCAA tournament team.

Maybe that is not enough. For me, that is buildable momentum. After that it is up to recruiting.

Fitz is getting higher ranked recruits now, with the momentum and facilities, than he did when he started.

I think basketball can do that as well. Next year is a big year for the program. If we win 8-10 conference games and finish mid-pack and maybe go dancing we continue the momentum. If we win 6 or fewer conference games and miss post-season again, I may join the others at the urinal, pissing on the program.

 

[GatoLouco]

Last year the league lost:
MD - Smith/Cowan
MSU - Winston/Tillman
PSU - Stevens
MI - Teske/Simpson
MN - Oturu
Purdue - Haarms/Eastern
UNL - Mack
OSU - Wesson

All top talent at their respective teams. It’s very hard to predict how good teams will be. Purdue this year outperformed like crazy.

But we know we have a seasoned roster. That, in theory, is encouraging

 

[CappyNU]

Last year the league lost:
MD - Smith/Cowan
MSU - Winston/Tillman
PSU - Stevens
MI - Teske/Simpson
MN - Oturu
Purdue - Haarms/Eastern
UNL - Mack
OSU - Wesson

All top talent at their respective teams. It’s very hard to predict how good teams will be. Purdue this year outperformed like crazy.

But we know we have a seasoned roster. That, in theory, is encouraging

To your point, MD, MSU, PSU, and MN regressed considerably, MI replaced like-for-like with a top grad transfer in Smith and a top frosh in Dickinson, Purdue and OSU outperformed their expectations, and Neb remained bad.

A lot will depend on the coaching carousel and the transfer portal before we can get a good sense of who might regress next year.

Michigan graduates 3 starters and 2 reserves, Illinois graduates 2 starters and likely loses 2 more, Iowa as mentioned losing their 2 most important players, OSU graduates 2 starters and 1 reserve, Wisconsin graduates 6 players, and Rutgers graduates two starting guards. MSU only loses 1 guy at the moment but they also have 3 commits with just 1 spot open, so that means 2 other guys gotta go.

That's 6 of the top 7 teams in the conference who lose a huge chunk of performance from this year. Purdue should be the favorite to win the conference next year between not losing anyone and having a great recruiting class, though MD, MSU and Mich also have monster recruiting classes coming in.

IU, MN, Neb and PSU will be dumpster fires.

Assuming (and that's a big if) we keep our roster intact, I would expect that we will see fewer elite teams in the conference, worse bottom-end depth in the conference, and we should absolutely have making the tourney be the make-or-break line for the season.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

This is often the issue. A lot of top programs in the league often have better players waiting in the wings then we have on the floor.

What I am hoping is that our senior players take on that attitude you sometimes see with seniors where they get a jolt of confidence and loss of fear since they have nothing left to lose in their final year. I'd love to see a more aggressive Nance and Kopp playing without fear.

Until I see Nance, Kopp or anyone else get that aggressive gene where they lead the team in crunch time, I don’t see the win results in the manner we expect to happen. I hope someone finds it, but I just don’t see a tourney team next season.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

To your point, MD, MSU, PSU, and MN regressed considerably, MI replaced like-for-like with a top grad transfer in Smith and a top frosh in Dickinson, Purdue and OSU outperformed their expectations, and Neb remained bad.

A lot will depend on the coaching carousel and the transfer portal before we can get a good sense of who might regress next year.

Michigan graduates 3 starters and 2 reserves, Illinois graduates 2 starters and likely loses 2 more, Iowa as mentioned losing their 2 most important players, OSU graduates 2 starters and 1 reserve, Wisconsin graduates 6 players, and Rutgers graduates two starting guards. MSU only loses 1 guy at the moment but they also have 3 commits with just 1 spot open, so that means 2 other guys gotta go.

That's 6 of the top 7 teams in the conference who lose a huge chunk of performance from this year. Purdue should be the favorite to win the conference next year between not losing anyone and having a great recruiting class, though MD, MSU and Mich also have monster recruiting classes coming in.

IU, MN, Neb and PSU will be dumpster fires.

Assuming (and that's a big if) we keep our roster intact, I would expect that we will see fewer elite teams in the conference, worse bottom-end depth in the conference, and we should absolutely have making the tourney be the make-or-break line for the season.

Illinois will still be good. NU should be better than the 4 teams you called dumpster fires, but even with losses, most of the other teams are still better.

 

[loyolacat]

How are the new incoming guys going to fit in? will any of them be playing meaningful minutes? and at whos expense?

 

[combes]

I think next year will be a bit schedule dependent

We return everybody

We played NE, MN, IND and PSU 5 times. Would love to see us play 8 games against them next year.

Also Iowa loses Garza and Bohannon next year. Would love to play them twice.

Illinois probably loses Ayo and Kofi. Still have talent but it will be much closer.

That would be 12 games that we would be competitive against.

We should be competitive against Maryland as well.

Wisconsin may lose Reuvers, Ford, Potter and Trice. Uncertain if they return due to covid. If they leave those games are competitive.

We were competitive against MSU this year as well

2021 could look very interesting

Ayo definitely gone. Kofi will be back if he is not projected to be drafted and right now he is not.

 

[jensberg]

Watching the Big Ten get embarrassed throughout the NCAA so far and seeing so many teams I've never watched or heard of play fantastic basketball where their players can shoot, rebound and slash to the basket we have a long long way to go.

 

[GeorgiaCat]

Kofi not projected to be drafted? Based on what? I randomly picked two recent NBA mock drafts and one had Kofi late first round and the other had Kofi early second round.

 

[CatJones]

I also believe we will finish higher in the Big Ten standings next year as we will have everyone (who wants to be) back and the most veteran team in the league. On the other hand that was also true of Wisconsin this year, and they finished worse than they did in 2019-20.

 

[NUChicago]

I also believe we will finish higher in the Big Ten standings next year as we will have everyone (who wants to be) back and the most veteran team in the league. On the other hand that was also true of Wisconsin this year, and they finished worse than they did in 2019-20.

Better?? You mean terrible to not as terrible???

 

[GatoLouco]

Better?? You mean terrible to not as terrible???

I heard our coach say we made significant progress. We doubled wins, 3 to 6. So maybe next year we will win 12 games. Or, pessimistically, we add the same 3 wins. We get 12 or 9 wins, make the tournament and life is good.

On the other hand our progress was from 13th to a (tied) 12th. So next year we make the same progress and get a (tied) 11th place. We don’t make the tournament. Life is not good. But it was progress and the coach stays on for another 4 years.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

When you say "we lose nobody" I'm pretty sure Anthony Gaines is graduating.
Regardless...

We improve significantly if you take the exact same team and Collins

a) plays Nance and Young together 15-20 minutes a game
b) plays Beran with Young much more than Beran with Nance
c) pairs Ty Berry with Boo Buie for significant minutes
d) allows Matt Nicholson to play 5-10 minutes a game backing up the 2 big guys
e) reduces Kopp's playing time and pairs him more productively

Hopefully we get more from the incoming freshmen than we lose from Gaines, but it is worth pointing out that the lineup of Nance/Kopp/Gaines/Buie/Audige was far more successful than Nance/Kopp/Beran/Buie/Audige.

Collins played 23 different lineups at least 6 total minutes in our last 13 games.
The 5 most-used lineups played half of the minutes.

The correlation between the performance of the lineup and the amount of time Collins played them was slightly below zero. That strikes me as "bad."

 

[Styre]

When you say "we lose nobody" I'm pretty sure Anthony Gaines is graduating.
Regardless...

He's eligible for next season, we have a scholarship slot for him, and he wasn't included in senior day festivities, so he's probably coming back. Barring transfers, we will have the same 10 scholarship players + the incoming freshmen.

 

[catcrazy]

I’d like to see what our 3 freshmen have. Especially anxious to see Ropers game. Could be the first recruit to move the needle for this team

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I’d like to see what our 3 freshmen have. Especially anxious to see Ropers game. Could be the first recruit to move the needle for this team

Nicholson never got that chance, despite his obvious ability. Collins is sort of "off his rocker" with freshmen.

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Nicholson never got that chance, despite his obvious ability. Collins is sort of "off his rocker" with freshmen.

You’re still pushing this Nicholson crap? 🙄

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

You’re still pushing this Nicholson crap? 🙄

Why would you call it crap?
You have no reason to believe Nicholson is not a good player.

Collins doesn't play him.
He didn't play Dererk Pardon either.
Nicholson is a huge freshman who grew 3-4 inches AFTER Collins signed him.
He clearly had power forward skills, enough for Collins to sign him.
Then he grew 4-5 inches as a high school senior and added 35 lbs of muscle.
A huge athletic freshman has to see the court.
I can't help it if you are clueless, but in all sincerity...
Wake up!

 

[GatoLouco]

Why would you call it crap?
You have no reason to believe Nicholson is not a good player.

Collins doesn't play him.
He didn't play Dererk Pardon either.
Nicholson is a huge freshman who grew 3-4 inches AFTER Collins signed him.
He clearly had power forward skills, enough for Collins to sign him.
Then he grew 4-5 inches as a high school senior and added 35 lbs of muscle.
A huge athletic freshman has to see the court.
I can't help it if you are clueless, but in all sincerity...
Wake up!

We were in the heat of a run to make the tournament. We could not afford the luxury of investing in developing players.

Either that or our coach said they all decided, last year, that they were going to invest in developing players. As opposed to going after transfers. And gave 2 min to a 7 ft freshman.

I don’t think either fully happened.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Why would you call it crap?
You have no reason to believe Nicholson is not a good player.

Collins doesn't play him.
He didn't play Dererk Pardon either.
Nicholson is a huge freshman who grew 3-4 inches AFTER Collins signed him.
He clearly had power forward skills, enough for Collins to sign him.
Then he grew 4-5 inches as a high school senior and added 35 lbs of muscle.
A huge athletic freshman has to see the court.
I can't help it if you are clueless, but in all sincerity...
Wake up!

C’mon White Boy, there are a lot of things to complain about with CCC, but this isn’t one of them. It was a completely different situation with Pardon as they were trying to preserve his shirt. Olah was a Senior and Pardon wasn’t going to see the bulk of the minutes. You can question whether he should have seen back up minutes to start with, but the logic made sense. Young sat a year too. I think folks will be happy he did, when he returns next year as he is a valuable player.

Also, from the day Pardon stepped on the court you could see he belonged. He was a Dawg out there. We aren’t sure about Nicholson yet. I am not saying he won’t be a good player, I just don’t know yet as he hasn’t seen much time. If Nicholson is Bill Walton next season, then CCC made a huge mistake. If you can’t see the difference between where Pardon was when he first stepped on the court versus Nicholson, you aren’t watching. We’ll see.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

C’mon White Boy, there are a lot of things to complain about with CCC, but this isn’t one of them. It was a completely different situation with Pardon as they were trying to preserve his shirt. Olah was a Senior and Pardon wasn’t going to see the bulk of the minutes. You can question whether he should have seen back up minutes to start with, but the logic made sense. Young sat a year too. I think folks will be happy he did, when he returns next year as he is a valuable player.

Also, from the day Pardon stepped on the court you could see he belonged. He was a Dawg out there. We aren’t sure about Nicholson yet. I am not saying he won’t be a good player, I just don’t know yet as he hasn’t seen much time. If Nicholson is Bill Walton next season, then CCC made a huge mistake. If you can’t see the difference between where Pardon was when he first stepped on the court versus Nicholson, you aren’t watching. We’ll see.

Thats reasonable, but the tone of CoralSpringsCat's comment was just unnecessarily ignorant.

I'm obviously more in line with Gato. You cannot teach height. You cannot teach size. In basketball, Nicholson's kind of size is a big asset. I have seen him run the floor, he is not a lumbering blob. Chris Collins failed to recognize that his best lineup includes Nance and Young at the same time. They are our two best players. However, when you play your two bigs at the same time, it is likely that you need another big guy to come off the bench and play meaningful minutes.

That guy is Matt Nicholson.

Collins' strategy this season seemed to be "I'm going to keep putting Beran out there, ignore the results, limit Ryan Young's minutes, keep him out of foul trouble and lose winnable games."

 

[SDakaGordie]

What’s hard for me to compute in all this talk about this year and Collins is that, if we win two more games, we would have been right in the mix of tourney discussion (assuming they also gave us credit for the hardest ever schedule) coming off a 3-win BiGTen season. And to me, that “if” is not far away - just a few more average performances by Buie, and a few more wide open shots made by Kopp - things we expected. To think we are that close, almost having the athletes and talent to play the same type of game that virtually all of the teams in the NCAA play (instead of some quirky systems to take advantage of inferior athletes), with new facilities and new solid recruits, makes me optimistic.

 

[GatoLouco]

What’s hard for me to compute in all this talk about this year and Collins is that, if we win two more games, we would have been right in the mix of tourney discussion (assuming they also gave us credit for the hardest ever schedule) coming off a 3-win BiGTen season. And to me, that “if” is not far away - just a few more average performances by Buie, and a few more wide open shots made by Kopp - things we expected. To think we are that close, almost having the athletes and talent to play the same type of game that virtually all of the teams in the NCAA play (instead of some quirky systems to take advantage of inferior athletes), with new facilities and new solid recruits, makes me optimistic.

Same logic and we lose a couple more games, we were so close to losing them, and even you might be not so optimistic about next season. Goes both ways buddy

 

[GatoLouco]

However, when you play your two bigs at the same time, it is likely that you need another big guy to come off the bench and play meaningful minutes.

That guy is Matt Nicholson.

Collins' strategy this season seemed to be "I'm going to keep putting Beran out there, ignore the results, limit Ryan Young's minutes, keep him out of foul trouble and lose winnable games."

This is, IMO, spot on. Main reason we should have played Nicholson 5-10 minutes was because you need a big to alleviate foul troubles with Young playing the minutes he deserved and we needed him to.

The next big reason is that playing is good for the kid’s development and, in turn, good for us in the future. He did not red shirt. The season was lost wins and losses wise, and we still did not give him minutes. Like we did not even try Berry at the point for a single minute.

 

[willycat]

This is, IMO, spot on. Main reason we should have played Nicholson 5-10 minutes was because you need a big to alleviate foul troubles with Young playing the minutes he deserved and we needed him to.

The next big reason is that playing is good for the kid’s development and, in turn, good for us in the future. He did not red shirt. The season was lost wins and losses wise, and we still did not give him minutes. Like we did not even try Berry at the point for a single minute.

Do we actually think Nicholson will be back next season, along with one or more others?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

This is, IMO, spot on. Main reason we should have played Nicholson 5-10 minutes was because you need a big to alleviate foul troubles with Young playing the minutes he deserved and we needed him to.

The next big reason is that playing is good for the kid’s development and, in turn, good for us in the future. He did not red shirt. The season was lost wins and losses wise, and we still did not give him minutes. Like we did not even try Berry at the point for a single minute.

Nicholson scored 9 points all year. Honest question, as I am not trying to start more crap with you. Do you think Nicholson should have seen more minutes from purely a development stage? If not, what lead you to believe he could help out from that 23 minute sample size?

Personally, I think CCC would have been crucified on this board if Nicholson was seeing minutes over anyone else in the rotation.

 

[chicagocatfan24]

I also believe we will finish higher in the Big Ten standings next year as we will have everyone (who wants to be) back and the most veteran team in the league. On the other hand that was also true of Wisconsin this year, and they finished worse than they did in 2019-20.

I think not having a raucous Kohl Center played a role in this. That place is worth 1-2 wins easy I'd say. It's science

 

[GatoLouco]

Nicholson scored 9 points all year. Honest question, as I am not trying to start more crap with you. Do you think Nicholson should have seen more minutes from purely a development stage? If not, what lead you to believe he could help out from that 23 minute sample size?

Personally, I think CCC would have been crucified on this board if Nicholson was seeing minutes over anyone else in the rotation.

I think that initially it made no sense to use him. CC wanted the 5 out offense and we won 3 games. But after losing 10 in a row I don’t know how it was justified to not give him minutes. We even changed to a starting lineup including Young. Lasted 2 games. We were playing terribly for a stretch there. I know I did not call much for Nicholson minutes. I surely called for Berry at the point.

But ultimately the Nicholson minutes only made more sense with Young starting. And that didn’t happen. And I don’t know about PurpleWB, but I’m talking about 5 minutes. Up to 10 if the kid produced. Not exactly overwhelming minutes.

As it stands I’m with you. We don’t even know what the kid can do. And I could be way off. I don’t know, you don’t know, he didn’t play

 

[NURoseBowl]

Do we actually think Nicholson will be back next season, along with one or more others?

Hope I'm wrong, but he's a guy I'm worried about losing, as he probably doesn't see many minutes with his name on them for next season either.

 

[GatoLouco]

Do we actually think Nicholson will be back next season, along with one or more others?

I’d put my money on him not coming back. And not because of the minutes of last season. But because, by now, he must have realized he committed to playing for a coach who does not want to play a brand of basketball using a true big. Or maybe he does, I can’t understand CC.

If I were him I’d take my talents to some other school that could give me a good degree.

 

[willycat]

I’d put my money on him not coming back. And not because of the minutes of last season. But because, by now, he must have realized he committed to playing for a coach who does not want to play a brand of basketball using a true big. Or maybe he does, I can’t understand CC.

If I were him I’d take my talents to some other school that could give me a good degree.

well if he choses to not come back and think think that's very probable. it's because he realizes he won't get many minutes in the Big Ten. Hey maybe he can transfer to the the powerhouse MVC! a bit more worried about retaining the services of a few others. Boo for one.

 

[IGNORE2]

Do we actually think Nicholson will be back next season, along with one or more others?

Nope

 

[PURPLECAT88]

I’d put my money on him not coming back. And not because of the minutes of last season. But because, by now, he must have realized he committed to playing for a coach who does not want to play a brand of basketball using a true big. Or maybe he does, I can’t understand CC.

If I were him I’d take my talents to some other school that could give me a good degree.

Couldn't you have said the same thing about Young two years ago? Then suddenly young was a starter last year and a major rotation guy this year. I certainly have no insight into Nicholson's personality, goals or what the coaches are telling him about his future role with the team, but if the coaches point to Young's development following his empty 2018-19 season and say to Nicholson, "We have the same expectations for you," then why wouldn't he stick around to play B1G ball and get an NU degree?

If, on the other hand, the coaches are hinting that they don't see him developing into a consistent rotation guy, then, yeah, he will absolutely move along.

 

[GatoLouco]

Couldn't you have said the same thing about Young two years ago? Then suddenly young was a starter last year and a major rotation guy this year. I certainly have no insight into Nicholson's personality, goals or what the coaches are telling him about his future role with the team, but if the coaches point to Young's development following his empty 2018-19 season and say to Nicholson, "We have the same expectations for you," then why wouldn't he stick around to play B1G ball and get an NU degree?

If, on the other hand, the coaches are hinting that they don't see him developing into a consistent rotation guy, then, yeah, he will absolutely move along.

Young red shirted. Because there was Pardon and Benson ahead of him. And there was no indication Nance would be a victim of an attempt of being unicornized into a 5.

Nicholson did not red shirt. And saw Young being relegated to the bench alongside the above mention of unicorns.

But I hope you are right and that he turns into 1/2 the player Young is.

 

[CappyNU]

This Nicholson discourse is really something...I get that there's not a lot to talk about right now, but did we think Ryan Young was going to transfer because he redshirted his freshman year? If it had been a normal non-Covid season, I'm pretty sure Nicholson would've redshirted. Again, the one game he played non-garbage minutes this year, we were outscored by Purdue 8-0. But, I'm sure that the armchair coaches on this board know more about his abilities than the coaches who watch him in practice daily.

 

[GatoLouco]

This Nicholson discourse is really something...I get that there's not a lot to talk about right now, but did we think Ryan Young was going to transfer because he redshirted his freshman year? If it had been a normal non-Covid season, I'm pretty sure Nicholson would've redshirted. Again, the one game he played non-garbage minutes this year, we were outscored by Purdue 8-0. But, I'm sure that the armchair coaches on this board know more about his abilities than the coaches who watch him in practice daily.

Cappy you make such wonderful contributions to this board. But the logic of the armchair coach is weak. Really weak. It’s a classical but oh so weak. Because it implies accepting everything anyone more seasoned has to offer. Accepting that experience is never wrong.

I could go search for some armchair coaching of yours. But it’s a mute exercise that could be done to virtually everyone on this board.

PS-I don’t think anyone is advocating Nicholson would have saved us. Young red shirted when we had serious aspirations at a tournament run. Nicholson got zero development minutes in a dumpster fire season. Just to add to my previous post regarding the inane comparison of Young vs Nicholson.

 

[TheC]

Cappy you make such wonderful contributions to this board. But the logic of the armchair coach is weak. Really weak. It’s a classical but oh so weak. Because it implies accepting everything anyone more seasoned has to offer. Accepting that experience is never wrong.

I could go search for some armchair coaching of yours. But it’s a mute exercise that could be done to virtually everyone on this board.

PS-I don’t think anyone is advocating Nicholson would have saved us. Young red shirted when we had serious aspirations at a tournament run. Nicholson got zero development minutes in a dumpster fire season. Just to add to my previous post regarding the inane comparison of Young vs Nicholson.

I think the main point he made, which I totally agree with, is there is no evidence that anyone has that Nicholson could have contributed meaningful minutes. His limited in-game action didn't really show even a glimmer to my recollection. It's backup quarterback syndrome. We don't know anything about how he can play, so we'll just assume that he must be good because we want to believe that. Collins has shown he will play freshmen if they can offer a spark. Do we really think Nicholson is lighting it up in practice, but Collins is holding him down?