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Looks like the Big Ten season may be on, but...

Great news! This is a good sign that the plans and protocols are working correctly, and administrators / coaches are being careful. Won't be the last game postponed (others were too last weekend) - this was to be expected. Totally reasonable - try to play, but you pause when there are outbreaks / positive tests. We will see how it goes. Hopefully they take a week or two off to get everyone clean and then can resume the schedule (and possibly reschedule missed games later). If not, and too many games get postponed, that's fine, they tried but backed off when things repeatedly became unsafe / problematic.

In my view, that is how this is supposed to work. We were never going to have a perfect or normal CFB season. But the idea is to try to give the student-athletes some chance to play and compete in a modified season, but take a pause whenever (or if) the virus rears up its ugly head.

I think that might be the disconnect here - the "don't play CFB" folks seem to think that the "play CFB" crowd wants to blindly play on no matter what. That's certainly not what I am suggesting and I don't think that's what the Big 12, SEC etc are planning on doing. Everyone expects there to be hiccups and pauses along the way, and we will hopefully get used to managing our way through those pauses to play some football while trying to keep folks healthy where possible.

Very well said. My sentiments exactly!
 
It's not about whether he is a football player or not. We haven't controlled the virus. Therefore, we should not be conducting activities that increase the risk of spread. It's impossible to socially distance while playing football. You can't stay at home and still go to practice. Students shouldn't even be on campus.

So far, Illinois with their rapid saliva-based testing is potentially finding a way out. But most aren't doing that.
Not so. Our defenses under Colby proved that. :oops:
 
I have always said we are going to have to live with COVID. Others seem to think that we MUST find a way to not die from COVID. Those are vastly different ideas.

I think most people accept that we are going to have to live with COVID. I think most people like myself would just prefer that we have a vaccine readily available for anyone who gets it before we resume to normal life.
 
Maybe in authoritarian states in Asia where you can fully lock people down for 2-3 full months, but I don't think that's going to happen in America.

What authoritarian states? South Korea? Japan? Taiwan?
 

I always knew that attending class was counterproductive and harmful to your health.

Can somebody email me the class notes? Not interested in the print/paper/sneezed-on versions.

I’m ready to practice though. 9 on 7 drill is worth the risk. Sociology and philosophy class not so much...
 
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I always knew that attending class was counterproductive and harmful to your health.

Can somebody email me the class notes? Not interest in the print/paper/sneezed-on versions.

I’m ready to practice though. 9 on 7 drill is worth the risk. Sociology and philosophy class not so much...

12 hours a week. Our players are practicing.
 
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The one place we took it extremely seriously, and were even more cautious, I believe is the one where you live. And now it's pretty much under control in New York. Even gyms and restaurants are re-opening. Everywhere else was too quick and loose and the results are showing that.

It's never too late to try and get this under control.
But NY has roughly the same ratio of positive tests per person as most of the other highly populated states (CA, TX, FL, IL, GA). Perhaps not coincidentally, in those states it has been gradually tapering off with a gradual decline in cases for a month plus and now deaths. All the big states are now showing roughly 2-3% positive tests as % of population (which is where all the NY NJ MA etc states are too). If you estimate at 10x cases to positive tests then 20-30% of population has had it? It's just that the second wave states have flattened the curve, didn't have issues with hospital overruns, and had more data on how to treat patients, so they have had 1/3 to 1/5 the deaths per capita that NY NJ MA etc had.

It all goes back to R0. If no action taken, research suggests it's a bit above 2. With basic to moderate social distancing steps taken (masks, limit capacity and large gatherings, protect the old folks and those with preconditions), you can get it down to 1.4-1.5. So then when 20-30% of the population has it (0.7-0.8 * 1.4-1.5), effective R0 goes below 1 and transmission rate is less than rate of people getting healthy. And exponential growth stops, cases decline. So NY hasn't really done any better overall on cases, they just already had their spike much earlier - and in fact by the stats they did much worse because far higher death rate - though that isn't exactly fair because the other states had so much more time to prepare. It does help for R0 that because it was so severe in NY the first time, people are more responsible about the basic to moderate social distancing than in other states.

Alternatively you can try extreme social distancing measures which you are suggesting and clearly help stop spread in the short term - but then when you let up, likely it comes back. Germany is really the only exception in the Western world with an urban population that has managed to avoid it - they avoided an initial spike (it hit Italy, Spain, France mostly), and had enough time to close their borders and thus far largely limit a second wave. I suspect it will get to them at some point (maybe in the winter, maybe next year), but who knows - I think they are basically testing anyone who comes in from outside of the country, which is good.

PS- The tradeoff of NYC maintaining these rules for so long is that they currently have unemployment rate of 15.9%, which is 50th out of 51 states (incl DC), only ahead of Mass. More than half of 300k workers in the restaurant industry are unemployed, and >1k out of 25k restaurants in the city have permanently shuttered. That's a lot of people with no jobs - 150k in one industry in one city alone.
 
But NY has roughly the same ratio of positive tests per person as most of the other highly populated states (CA, TX, FL, IL, GA). Perhaps not coincidentally, in those states it has been gradually tapering off with a gradual decline in cases for a month plus and now deaths. All the big states are now showing roughly 2-3% positive tests as % of population (which is where all the NY NJ MA etc states are too). If you estimate at 10x cases to positive tests then 20-30% of population has had it? It's just that the second wave states have flattened the curve, didn't have issues with hospital overruns, and had more data on how to treat patients, so they have had 1/3 to 1/5 the deaths per capita that NY NJ MA etc had.

It all goes back to R0. If no action taken, research suggests it's a bit above 2. With basic to moderate social distancing steps taken (masks, limit capacity and large gatherings, protect the old folks and those with preconditions), you can get it down to 1.4-1.5. So then when 20-30% of the population has it (0.7-0.8 * 1.4-1.5), effective R0 goes below 1 and transmission rate is less than rate of people getting healthy. And exponential growth stops, cases decline. So NY hasn't really done any better overall on cases, they just already had their spike much earlier - and in fact by the stats they did much worse because far higher death rate - though that isn't exactly fair because the other states had so much more time to prepare. It does help for R0 that because it was so severe in NY the first time, people are more responsible about the basic to moderate social distancing than in other states.

Alternatively you can try extreme social distancing measures which you are suggesting and clearly help stop spread in the short term - but then when you let up, likely it comes back. Germany is really the only exception in the Western world with an urban population that has managed to avoid it - they avoided an initial spike (it hit Italy, Spain, France mostly), and had enough time to close their borders and thus far largely limit a second wave. I suspect it will get to them at some point (maybe in the winter, maybe next year), but who knows - I think they are basically testing anyone who comes in from outside of the country, which is good.

PS- The tradeoff of NYC maintaining these rules for so long is that they currently have unemployment rate of 15.9%, which is 50th out of 51 states (incl DC), only ahead of Mass. More than half of 300k workers in the restaurant industry are unemployed, and >1k out of 25k restaurants in the city have permanently shuttered. That's a lot of people with no jobs - 150k in one industry in one city alone.

You will do anything to pick the numbers apart to pretend we're not in dire straits, won't you? Positive tests per person? You're doing that in total, I presume, not like, NOW, when we should have this thing under control?

How's this for a stat:

Deaths yesterday:
New York: 4
Germany: 9
S. Korea: 2
Australia: 7

California: 155
Florida: 202
Texas: 126
 
You will do anything to pick the numbers apart to pretend we're not in dire straits, won't you? Positive tests per person? You're doing that in total, I presume, not like, NOW, when we should have this thing under control?

How's this for a stat:

Deaths yesterday:
New York: 4
Germany: 9
S. Korea: 2
Australia: 7

California: 155
Florida: 202
Texas: 126
tenor.gif
 
You will do anything to pick the numbers apart to pretend we're not in dire straits, won't you? Positive tests per person? You're doing that in total, I presume, not like, NOW, when we should have this thing under control?

How's this for a stat:

Deaths yesterday:
New York: 4
Germany: 9
S. Korea: 2
Australia: 7

California: 155
Florida: 202
Texas: 126
These stats can't be ignored. In the countries where school started up again and went ok, it was the low overall numbers. Not anything this high.

Truly, education and football should have made mandates with community infection rates where players can't play unless numbers are below certain bars.

In the void of leadership, this kind of thing would have helped. Actual metrics that encourage testing and tracing. What a revolutionary idea!
 
You will do anything to pick the numbers apart to pretend we're not in dire straits, won't you? Positive tests per person? You're doing that in total, I presume, not like, NOW, when we should have this thing under control?

How's this for a stat:

Deaths yesterday:
New York: 4
Germany: 9
S. Korea: 2
Australia: 7

California: 155
Florida: 202
Texas: 126
Stats are for losers. Didn’t a prominent NU Coach say that?
 
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You will do anything to pick the numbers apart to pretend we're not in dire straits, won't you? Positive tests per person? You're doing that in total, I presume, not like, NOW, when we should have this thing under control?

How's this for a stat:

Deaths yesterday:
New York: 4
Germany: 9
S. Korea: 2
Australia: 7

California: 155
Florida: 202
Texas: 126
This response must be a joke....?

I don’t even know what you are blinded by or trying to compare to but oh well. Cheers to you for selectively picking numbers and ignoring all of the intent of and content of what I wrote. I wish you the best. There’s no sense in continuing this discussion because obviously you didn’t read (or perhaps comprehend) a thing I wrote.

Some people just don’t understand #math I guess. I apologize for bringing up R0, trend lines, logical comparisons, differences and changes rather than arbitrary absolute numbers (without context) at a point in time, my #math just way too complex and beyond comprehension for you.

Should we be seeing the forest through the trees? Discussing logical trade offs between two correlated negative outcomes which are not mutually exclusive and both clearly impact each other so therefore should be considered in concert for any health and/ or economic decision? No of course not. Completely ridiculous!! Who could conceive of such a thing!?
 
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This response must be a joke....?

I don’t even know what you are blinded by or trying to compare to but oh well. Cheers to you for selectively picking numbers and ignoring all of the intent of and content of what I wrote. I wish you the best. There’s no sense in continuing this discussion because obviously you didn’t read (or perhaps comprehend) a thing I wrote.

Some people just don’t understand #math I guess. I apologize for bringing up R0, trend lines, logical comparisons, differences and changes rather than arbitrary absolute numbers (without context) at a point in time, my #math just way too complex and beyond comprehension for you.

Should we be seeing the forest through the trees? Discussing logical trade offs between two correlated negative outcomes which are not mutually exclusive and both clearly impact each other so therefore should be considered in concert for any health and/ or economic decision? No of course not. Completely ridiculous!! Who could conceive of such a thing!?

No, we should talk about how 1,000 people are are dying every day in America but not in any other western country. Or we could try it your way:

tumblr_o16n2kBlpX1ta3qyvo1_1280.jpg
 
Here’s why I think he’s wrong, and I’m thinking Glades chugged a jug of WickerTurk’s Panhandle Moonshine to post this as a valid source in the OP:
  • If four teams sit out, there would only be ten left by my simple math
  • There will be no teams available for them to play non-conference at their later date
  • So a 10 game schedule would require each team to play every other B1G once, and one other B1G team twice - which isn’t feasible or humane
  • Also... it’s source on Twitter is somebody with no B1G or CFB affiliation named “SirYacht”??
Other thoughts?

He who chugs and posts first reaps the message board glory. :cool: LOL!
 
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Maybe can finally get over the notion that FB players are just like other students and not very important revenue drivers for the athletic budget.

There was a breakdown of spending for Penn State and the amount of $ devoted to salaries for coaches and athletic dept. administration is eye opening.
 
Maybe can finally get over the notion that FB players are just like other students and not very important revenue drivers for the athletic budget.

There was a breakdown of spending for Penn State and the amount of $ devoted to salaries for coaches and athletic dept. administration is eye opening.
Who has this notion? Fred Flintstone?
 
My son was negative when he got tested at the beginning of volunteer workouts. Within three weeks he and multiple others tested positive.”

Is this the part when I get to remind you that you constantly scold me for supposedly being unwilling to admit when I’m wrong?
And this is where I say that the total number of deaths under 25 is something like 100. And I would gusess that more additional people in this age group have died because of increases suicides, Drug over doses and the like. Saw in trib yesterday that in Dupage County, suicides up over 20% (and I think that increase is YTD but the increases have been since when the shutdowns occurred so really higher,. Also Drug OD deaths up over 50%. Throw in that pediatric dietician with Rush saying she is seeing massive weight increases in group she is seeing indicating significant long term negatives and the shutdowns show to be significantly worse for the under 25 group than COVID
 
And this is where I say that the total number of deaths under 25 is something like 100. And I would gusess that more additional people in this age group have died because of increases suicides, Drug over doses and the like. Saw in trib yesterday that in Dupage County, suicides up over 20% (and I think that increase is YTD but the increases have been since when the shutdowns occurred so really higher,. Also Drug OD deaths up over 50%. Throw in that pediatric dietician with Rush saying she is seeing massive weight increases in group she is seeing indicating significant long term negatives and the shutdowns show to be significantly worse for the under 25 group than COVID

Death is but one potential outcome for COVID patients. Heart issues, lung issues, etc. all pose significant long-term threats.
 
Do yourself a favor and prepare your talking points for what you will say when the first player is hospitalized due to an unknown underlying condition. Or contract traced to killing a loved one. Because both are statistically inevitable.

Sean Doolittle nailed it when he said sports are the reward for a functioning society. Let’s bring back college sports when we have one again.
So are increased deaths in this group do to suicide or drug od or longer term ones do to depression increased weight and other unhealthy things that are caused by shutdown isolation etc
 
wait a minute...he was hospitalized in August? Why is the party line that no CFB players have been hospitalized then? Willful ignorance?

If he had been hospitalized prior to getting on campus for Frosh year then he was technically not a college FB player yet. Will someone eventually he hospitalized for it? Likely but also likely that it would be a one off outlier. Compare that with those FB players that seem to get shot every year when they are at home or get hurt in other accidents. Or those that get injured. Serious complications for this group from COVID are very far down the line in level of risk compared to the rest
 
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If he had been hospitalized prior to getting on campus for Frosh year then he was technically not a college FB player yet. Will someone eventually he hospitalized for it? Likely but also likely that it would be a one off outlier.

At least wait until you've read the whole thread before responding to old threads.

He tested negative when he got to Indiana for offseason workouts, then tested positive.
 
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