Need big plays instead of "staying on schedule"

[platinocat]

I don’t know a lot about football beyond being a fan, but I do know something about statistics. I read about the coaches trying to “stay on schedule” to get first downs, and this is why we often run on first down. However, it seems to me that trying to “stay on schedule” is a low probability game because there is a relatively small chance of stringing together successive first downs, even if you have a good probability of getting the first one.

Consider the probability of getting a new first down given each 1st and 10. I do not know the probability for the NCAA but I found a value of 66% for the NFL (http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/07/first-down-probability.html). The probability of getting a touchdown after successive first downs depends on the number of first downs you need to get to the end zone. At a 66% probability of getting a first down (or scoring) for each 1st and 10, the probability of getting a touchdown depends on the number of first downs needed to get there and these are (0.66 to the power of the number of first downs):

3 first downs: 29%

4 first downs: 19%

5 first downs: 13%

6 first downs: 8%

Thus, even if your chances of getting a first down are about 2 out of 3, if you have relatively small gains each time and need 5 first downs to score, you only have a 13% chance of scoring.

So it seems you need big plays to have a reasonable chance. Of course, any play you call could be a big play, but a downfield play has a much better chance of being a big play.

 

[shakes3858]

I think you need to get in schedule and get that initial first down. This takes a little bit off the clock and gives our great defense a chance to rest. Then i say go for the explosion play.

If You're a stats guy, you might enjoy this read (may have posted before). Apparently, the team with more 20+ yard plays wins 81% of the time. The team that wins the turnover margin wins only 80% of the time so it's actually a "better" indicator. The coach is trying create explosion plays by having more than 2 players touch the ball. Don't know if it's working.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-another-radical-idea/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_break

 

[Deeringfish]

I don’t know a lot about football beyond being a fan, but I do know something about statistics. I read about the coaches trying to “stay on schedule” to get first downs, and this is why we often run on first down. However, it seems to me that trying to “stay on schedule” is a low probability game because there is a relatively small chance of stringing together successive first downs, even if you have a good probability of getting the first one.

Consider the probability of getting a new first down given each 1st and 10. I do not know the probability for the NCAA but I found a value of 66% for the NFL (http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2008/07/first-down-probability.html). The probability of getting a touchdown after successive first downs depends on the number of first downs you need to get to the end zone. At a 66% probability of getting a first down (or scoring) for each 1st and 10, the probability of getting a touchdown depends on the number of first downs needed to get there and these are (0.66 to the power of the number of first downs):

3 first downs: 29%

4 first downs: 19%

5 first downs: 13%

6 first downs: 8%

Thus, even if your chances of getting a first down are about 2 out of 3, if you have relatively small gains each time and need 5 first downs to score, you only have a 13% chance of scoring.

So it seems you need big plays to have a reasonable chance. Of course, any play you call could be a big play, but a downfield play has a much better chance of being a big play.

We don't have many big play players on the O so the ones we have JJ and Vitale are closely shadowed.

 

[NUCat320]

I think you need to get in schedule and get that initial first down. This takes a little bit off the clock and gives our great defense a chance to rest. Then i say go for the explosion play.

If You're a stats guy, you might enjoy this read (may have posted before). Apparently, the team with more 20+ yard plays wins 81% of the time. The team that wins the turnover margin wins only 80% of the time so it's actually a "better" indicator. The coach is trying create explosion plays by having more than 2 players touch the ball. Don't know if it's working.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-another-radical-idea/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_break

That's great data, Shakes. Without any analysis and simply my own experience watching football, I focus primarily on turnovers, then on big plays (mostly special teams blocks or tds, or defensive touchdowns, or trick plays), then on 3rd down. I've always considered time of possession a waste of discussion.

I've never specifically considered 'explosion' plays, but it makes complete sense. Sustaining drives is a lot more difficult than picking up chunks of yardage.

I remember in the Kafka-Zeke season, we had something like a 16-play, 91-yard drive that resulted in a field goal. Efficient 'dink and dunk', but mind-numbing.

JJ is a great tailback, but, in part due to line play and in part due to outside blocking and in part due to his own soeed, I think, the home run isn't part of his repertoire. It matters.

 

[shakes3858]

That's great data, Shakes. Without any analysis and simply my own experience watching football, I focus primarily on turnovers, then on big plays (mostly special teams blocks or tds, or defensive touchdowns, or trick plays), then on 3rd down. I've always considered time of possession a waste of discussion.

I've never specifically considered 'explosion' plays, but it makes complete sense. Sustaining drives is a lot more difficult than picking up chunks of yardage.

I remember in the Kafka-Zeke season, we had something like a 16-play, 91-yard drive that resulted in a field goal. Efficient 'dink and dunk', but mind-numbing.

JJ is a great tailback, but, in part due to line play and in part due to outside blocking and in part due to his own soeed, I think, the home run isn't part of his repertoire. It matters.

Can't discount TOP too much. Did you listen to the Jerry Kill press conference after the Minnesota game? He commented on our 9 minute 19 play drive with the wind in our face as a huge factor in the game.

 

[GlideCat]

Can't discount TOP too much. Did you listen to the Jerry Kill press conference after the Minnesota game? He commented on our 9 minute 19 play drive with the wind in our face as a huge factor in the game.

I was going to mention that drive also. If you have a disciplined team that is not going to kill the drive with penalties, then a huge slow unstoppable drive like that one emotionally wears an opponent down more than anything.

Woody Hayes was wrong. There are four bad things that can happen on a pass play:

Incomplete
Interception
Sack
Holding Call

The present team is geared to get the lead and then wear the opponent down. Hopefully, we can do that tomorrow.

 

[NUCat320]

I think you need to get in schedule and get that initial first down. This takes a little bit off the clock and gives our great defense a chance to rest. Then i say go for the explosion play.

If You're a stats guy, you might enjoy this read (may have posted before). Apparently, the team with more 20+ yard plays wins 81% of the time. The team that wins the turnover margin wins only 80% of the time so it's actually a "better" indicator. The coach is trying create explosion plays by having more than 2 players touch the ball. Don't know if it's working.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-another-radical-idea/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_break

Pulaski Academy is 7-0 this year, outscoring opponents 340-142. I have no idea if or how frequently they're using 'rugby'.

Coach Kelley is giving some seminar in South Bend - an analysis of the ND-USC game - on Monday morning.