NIT this year? What are the odds?

[Kat burglar]

I like the depth and balance we will finally have this next year.

1 Buie, Berry, Greer
2. Gaines, Audige
3. Kopp, Beran
4. Nance, Beran
5. Young, Nicholson

Perhaps we could use some help at the 4 position but we finally have some balance and no glaring holes.

I expect Kopp to be a beast next year and Buie and Beran to make great strides from last year. Audige will be a great offensive depth addition.

If Nance has found his niche and embraces it, like he did at the end of last year, we could really have some fun.

Prediction, mid-pack Big Ten, NIT bid.

 

[catcrazy]

As far as upside I think Beran is the one to take the biggest step. Of course there may not be a season so all this talk may simply be academic

 

[NUThump]

Mid-pack in the Big, NCAA bid.

 

[DaCat]

This team is solid but is still a fairly young squad - Gaines is the lone senior, and just two juniors who are regulars in Kopp and Nance.

If this team is to take a big step up, Kopp needs to continue to elevate his scoring from last year's team-leading 13.1 ppg to 15+ ppg and Nance needs to be more consistent, his 8.5 ppg should increase to 12+ ppg range. Buie also has to improve his shot selection and shooting percentage, 28.2% from three-point range is poor, not to mention 37.6% overall. Also hoping to see Beran average double figures, which would give us four players - Kopp, Buie, Nance, and Beran - that provides the main scoring, and Young to fill in nicely.

 

[freewillie07]

I like the depth and balance we will finally have this next year.

1 Buie, Berry, Greer
2. Gaines, Audige
3. Kopp, Beran
4. Nance, Beran
5. Young, Nicholson

Perhaps we could use some help at the 4 position but we finally have some balance and no glaring holes.

I expect Kopp to be a beast next year and Buie and Beran to make great strides from last year. Audige will be a great offensive depth addition.

If Nance has found his niche and embraces it, like he did at the end of last year, we could really have some fun.

Prediction, mid-pack Big Ten, NIT bid.

Misleading to list Beran twice. We have *10* scholarship players. I like just about all of them (remains to be seen if Greer can be a net positive on the floor for more than 5 minutes a game), but NU is one or two injuries away from disaster.

It’s not impossible to run an 8-man rotation, but you don’t want to *have* to do that every single night. Big Ten play is too grueling.

NU is an NIT team if it’s largely healthy the entire season, like the Tourney team.

 

[NJCat]

NU is an NIT team if it’s largely healthy the entire season, like the Tourney team.

Even the Tournament team had issues: Dererk missed 8 games with a broken hand and Scottie had Mono. That team also had just 10 scholarship players (Falzon went out after just 3 games).

 

[DaCat]

Even the Tournament team had issues: Dererk missed 8 games with a broken hand and Scottie had Mono. That team also had just 10 scholarship players (Falzon went out after just 3 games).

It's not unusual for Duke to rotate only 7 or 8 players.

 

[GatoLouco]

7-9 wins would be decent progress

 

[Katatonic]

I'd say be in the running for an NIT bid if most things work out.

 

[Titanium999]

I like the depth and balance we will finally have this next year.

1 Buie, Berry, Greer
2. Gaines, Audige
3. Kopp, Beran
4. Nance, Beran
5. Young, Nicholson

Perhaps we could use some help at the 4 position but we finally have some balance and no glaring holes.

I expect Kopp to be a beast next year and Buie and Beran to make great strides from last year. Audige will be a great offensive depth addition.

If Nance has found his niche and embraces it, like he did at the end of last year, we could really have some fun.

Prediction, mid-pack Big Ten, NIT bid.

We have a sweet sixteen team next year,if we get a vaccine! Go Cats

 

[torque-cat]

I like the depth and balance we will finally have this next year.

1 Buie, Berry, Greer
2. Gaines, Audige
3. Kopp, Beran
4. Nance, Beran
5. Young, Nicholson

Perhaps we could use some help at the 4 position but we finally have some balance and no glaring holes.

I expect Kopp to be a beast next year and Buie and Beran to make great strides from last year. Audige will be a great offensive depth addition.

If Nance has found his niche and embraces it, like he did at the end of last year, we could really have some fun.

Prediction, mid-pack Big Ten, NIT bid.

I’m hopeful but only 1 returning player is a proven above average big ten starter, which is Kopp. Everyone would need to improve substantially for us to be competitive for an NIT bid.

 

[freewillie07]

Even the Tournament team had issues: Dererk missed 8 games with a broken hand and Scottie had Mono. That team also had just 10 scholarship players (Falzon went out after just 3 games).

Right... that’s what passes as a “healthy year” for NU basketball...

But, fair point. Scottie’s mono almost cost NU the NCAA Tournament. They were able to mostly get by without Pardon during the stretch he was out, with a Benson/Skelly timeshare. The fact that neither were out at the same time was huge.

 

[cwcorgi-ks]

Hypothetically, if COVID forces a minimal or conference-only season, it would be tough for a still young NU to be over .500 and play postseason.

 

[Styre]

I’m hopeful but only 1 returning player is a proven above average big ten starter, which is Kopp. Everyone would need to improve substantially for us to be competitive for an NIT bid.

Yup. This team went 3-17 last year and finished 13th, with 2 of the wins over the 14th place team, and lost 3 buy games in the process. They played the 12th place team 3 times and lost them all, including two blowouts. And the NIT is no longer a consolation prize for mediocre teams - you need to be in the top 70 nationally to have a reasonable chance of selection.

It's not unheard of for a team to take that big of a leap. Heck, NU did it between 2007 (8-22 (1-17)) and 2008 (17-14 (8-10)), and they could do it again. But I wouldn't say it's likely at this point.

 

[catcrazy]

If PBJ walks on and brings another stud recruit then the whole wildcat nation will be on cloud nine

 

[combes]

We have a sweet sixteen team next year,if we get a vaccine! Go Cats

Big Ten is loaded. Will be tough to make the tourney.

 

[willycat]

If PBJ walks on and brings another stud recruit then the whole wildcat nation will be on cloud nine

All that is needed to make the "Dance" is PBJ. Even without him the NIT is a strong possibility.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Mid-pack in the Big, NCAA bid.

Bit optimistic (although I love your thinking); solidly in the middle of the NIT field IMO.

 

[PurpleFaze]

Yup. This team went 3-17 last year and finished 13th, with 2 of the wins over the 14th place team, and lost 3 buy games in the process. They played the 12th place team 3 times and lost them all, including two blowouts. And the NIT is no longer a consolation prize for mediocre teams - you need to be in the top 70 nationally to have a reasonable chance of selection.

It's not unheard of for a team to take that big of a leap. Heck, NU did it between 2007 (8-22 (1-17)) and 2008 (17-14 (8-10)), and they could do it again. But I wouldn't say it's likely at this point.

I think they should be able to make a decent jump if the new guys can contribute in the rotation. Guys got a lot of experience last year- young, Beran, boo, jones (now gone) all got thrown into the fire and showed they are capable Big 10 players.

 

[scru]

About the same as us catching a bass out here today.

- Calculus Edsby to Trigonometry Fletch

 

[Kat burglar]

7-9 wins would be decent progress

7-9 wins could be an NIT bid

 

[cwcorgi-ks]

So, in thinking about this season, we have 3 new players and 7 returning players. How much improvement should we reasonably expect from:

Pat Spencer --> Ty Berry
AJ Turner --> Chase Audige
Jared Jones --> Matt Nicholson

And 7 returners (including ~4 starters) who have an additional year under their belt.

I think the team will have better results this season, but how much of a jump is reasonable to expect is an open question. Obviously, returners should improve, in theory. And I think we may be better with 1 or 2 of the new players as well.

I also think a conference-only schedule is a real possibility, in which case a 7-13 or an 8-12 record would be a nice step forward. It appears a .500 record is no longer required for an NIT appearance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio... longer required,guaranteed places in the NIT.), so I think an 8-12 would give NU a good shot at a bid. Who knows what anything will look like this season, though.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

So, in thinking about this season, we have 3 new players and 7 returning players. How much improvement should we reasonably expect from:

Pat Spencer --> Ty Berry
AJ Turner --> Chase Audige
Jared Jones --> Matt Nicholson

And 7 returners (including ~4 starters) who have an additional year under their belt.

I think the team will have better results this season, but how much of a jump is reasonable to expect is an open question. Obviously, returners should improve, in theory. And I think we may be better with 1 or 2 of the new players as well.

I also think a conference-only schedule is a real possibility, in which case a 7-13 or an 8-12 record would be a nice step forward. It appears a .500 record is no longer required for an NIT appearance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Invitation_Tournament#:~:text=Teams are no longer required,guaranteed places in the NIT.), so I think an 8-12 would give NU a good shot at a bid. Who knows what anything will look like this season, though.

The biggest leap will be from the players that got their first significant playing time last year. There were a of them, even Nance and Kopp.

You forgot bringing Gaines back.

 

[cwcorgi-ks]

.

You forgot bringing Gaines back.

True, I forgot how little he played last year.

 

[freewillie07]

So, in thinking about this season, we have 3 new players and 7 returning players. How much improvement should we reasonably expect from:

Pat Spencer --> Ty Berry
AJ Turner --> Chase Audige
Jared Jones --> Matt Nicholson

And 7 returners (including ~4 starters) who have an additional year under their belt.

I think the team will have better results this season, but how much of a jump is reasonable to expect is an open question. Obviously, returners should improve, in theory. And I think we may be better with 1 or 2 of the new players as well.

I also think a conference-only schedule is a real possibility, in which case a 7-13 or an 8-12 record would be a nice step forward. It appears a .500 record is no longer required for an NIT appearance (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Invitation_Tournament#:~:text=Teams are no longer required,guaranteed places in the NIT.), so I think an 8-12 would give NU a good shot at a bid. Who knows what anything will look like this season, though.

Adding Gaines makes it overall a net positive on its own, in my opinion, but to address your question:

Pat Spencer --> Ty Berry

A net loss, at least for this season. I think by the time Berry is a sophomore he will be able to produce and contribute at a similar level to Spencer last year.

AJ Turner --> Chase Audige

A net gain. Turner seemed like a steady hand but in reality he put up 5 points, a couple of rebounds and a couple of assists per game while averaging ~25 minutes per game. FG% just 36%, 3pt% 27.4%. Chase can and will do better, and he should have the opportunity to do so.

Jared Jones --> Matt Nicholson

Very unclear, but I feel safe calling it net even. Jones got ~10 mins per game and was mostly a hustle guy. Nicholson provides more size immediately and I think if he's a quick learner and picks his spots well, he can be more efficient -- say, 50% FG% to Jones's 44.8%. And more likely to be a shot blocker.

 

[hdhntr1]

I like the depth and balance we will finally have this next year.

1 Buie, Berry, Greer
2. Gaines, Audige
3. Kopp, Beran
4. Nance, Beran
5. Young, Nicholson

Perhaps we could use some help at the 4 position but we finally have some balance and no glaring holes.

I expect Kopp to be a beast next year and Buie and Beran to make great strides from last year. Audige will be a great offensive depth addition.

If Nance has found his niche and embraces it, like he did at the end of last year, we could really have some fun.

Prediction, mid-pack Big Ten, NIT bid.

Got to be able to play first

 

[cwcorgi-ks]

Adding Gaines makes it overall a net positive on its own, in my opinion, but to address your question:

Pat Spencer --> Ty Berry

A net loss, at least for this season. I think by the time Berry is a sophomore he will be able to produce and contribute at a similar level to Spencer last year.

AJ Turner --> Chase Audige

A net gain. Turner seemed like a steady hand but in reality he put up 5 points, a couple of rebounds and a couple of assists per game while averaging ~25 minutes per game. FG% just 36%, 3pt% 27.4%. Chase can and will do better, and he should have the opportunity to do so.

Jared Jones --> Matt Nicholson

Very unclear, but I feel safe calling it net even. Jones got ~10 mins per game and was mostly a hustle guy. Nicholson provides more size immediately and I think if he's a quick learner and picks his spots well, he can be more efficient -- say, 50% FG% to Jones's 44.8%. And more likely to be a shot blocker.

A reasoned take, to be sure. I'm hoping Berry's shot, ball handling, and decision making will be improvements, but Spencer brought athleticism, toughness, and intangibles that will be difficult to replace. Still I'm hoping for at least a wash here, depending on what is needed.

I like your take on Chase and agree Nicholson is less clear. Having Berry and Nicholson as a wash and Audige be an improvement along with Gaines back and the expected improvement from Beran, Nance, et al, gives me optimism for this season and beyond.

 

[EvanstonCat]

Adding Gaines makes it overall a net positive on its own, in my opinion, but to address your question:

Pat Spencer --> Ty Berry

A net loss, at least for this season. I think by the time Berry is a sophomore he will be able to produce and contribute at a similar level to Spencer last year.

AJ Turner --> Chase Audige

A net gain. Turner seemed like a steady hand but in reality he put up 5 points, a couple of rebounds and a couple of assists per game while averaging ~25 minutes per game. FG% just 36%, 3pt% 27.4%. Chase can and will do better, and he should have the opportunity to do so.

Jared Jones --> Matt Nicholson

Very unclear, but I feel safe calling it net even. Jones got ~10 mins per game and was mostly a hustle guy. Nicholson provides more size immediately and I think if he's a quick learner and picks his spots well, he can be more efficient -- say, 50% FG% to Jones's 44.8%. And more likely to be a shot blocker.

Let me be a bit more optimistic. I loved Spencer, but Berry is very skilled. Spencer came in as a raw player playing his first year of B1G ball, so although a senior, really an athlete with some great vision, but still playing his first year of B1G ball. Could be a push with Berry (who you could say has the same description but a better shooter) or even a net gain.

Audige has played in Division 1 and contributed a lot more than Turner did in his freshman year. Net gain.

Nicholson is dominating in HS with some ridiculous production, particularly the multiple blocks per game, and yes it is HS, but he looks a hell of a lot more physically dominant on defense than Jones, and he is a 7 footer. You can’t teach that, and I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point he passes Young, and may become our best big since Evan Eschmeyer. I think potentially a big net gain.

It’s great to speculate on kids who have never landed and you have never seen play at this level. For them, hope springs eternal.