I speak with forked tongue! Truthfully,I have no idea! I really believe once the children get back in school,they will dictate everything. The resources are not there to help the kids social distancie,keep clean, and continue with their education. As much as I,and all of you,love college football, the children come first! If we cannot guarantee their safety. Which I speculate we can't. Then,we are going to have major issues. Noone will pity that an entertainment sport like football ain't being played. Pro baseball ain't doing so well right now. If summer school is cancelled,and pools are closed, that will be a sign. Again,I don't know and I am not even sure this virus is worse than any flu season in the past. I do think that places that are notoriously unkept,such as nursing homes,jails, prisons,ER rooms, can be a sort of " Petri dish" for the virus to spread. But I'm not certain of that either. Lots of speculation right now.
Even the places with high incidences only saw about 1-2% of the population get infected. Now, if you assume, due to piss-poor testing, that the number of actual cases is way undercounted, we could multiply that by 10 and still be way below where you need to be for any herd immunity.
Teachers, coaches, staff, community around campus......
Anyone over 65 gets a retirement package and a condo on the Gulf Shores...
More than a month ago, random antibody tests in NY showed something like 15-20% positive depending on where in the state.
I'm afraid you can't put much stock in those early studies. The antibody tests that first came out had unacceptably high false-positive rates. It is my understanding that better tests have come out since, but this study from back in April is probably highly flawed. None the less 15-20% was the assumption I made as well in my original post. That is still a long way from herd immunity.
Just saw this article on how the CDC is saying antibody tests may be wrong half the time! They should not be used to set policy.
Still that was back in April. My guess is that many had been lightly exposed and having the antibodies would provide some level of protection in that the body was already set up to make antibodies for this particular virus. The antibodies present would help to deal with any lite exposure but more importantly body would be ready to make more for a more significant exposure. Also since antibodies tend to take about two weeks to show up, even these numbers would be for people exposed by early April. By now those numbers would likely be much higher
I agree with everything you said... or.... rather, I would like to agree. We really don't have any insight into protection of humans from the virus due to antibodies, though the in vitro data is promising (the antibodies react with the virus and prevent it from infecting cells growing in a dish). And because the serological tests for antibodies remain so unreliable, we really have no idea how prevalent this is in our population. I agree the numbers are likely quite a bit higher than the 1-2% most communities are reporting based on testing, but we have no real credible basis yet for determining how high that number is. Regardless, I stand by my claim that it is doubtful the numbers are anywhere near high enough to provide any kind of herd immunity.
Take a look online of the hoops that Great America is trying to do to open up. This includes temperature testing, all kids over two wearing masks. Social distancing,trying to keep rides clean. What a mess. It is helpful to have good hygiene,to keep our nursing homes, jails,prisons, Ears,and amusement parks safe and clean. It is sad it is taking a pandemic to ensure the cleanliness of our society. Max Weber ,noted sociologist said, " How we treat the poor is a reflection of us on our society". We need a kinder,gentler,and cleaner America says George Bush and wrassler/ titanium!
In fact, there was an article in the NYTimes yesterday reporting that the CDC thinks surface contact, though a possible route of infection, is likely a low risk and not a main mode of transmission of this virus. Doesn't mean we should be letting our guard down, but it does allow us to focus resources more on the main culprit -- person to person interactions (which is a depressing thing to type).
Isn’t it still true that the amount of deaths under the age of 30 is still very small?
Just wondering what's the average age of the coaches, referees, trainers, team doctors, chain gang crew, media people, scoreboard operators and other stadium personal?
I see a real crisis brewing shortly. Nearly all of us want to see college football being played. But, those decisions are out of folks hands. I imagine teams will try and get up and running, and then have to shut things down rather quickly. The squeaky wheel gets the grease,so to speak. So as long as people are getting acutely sick, they are going to shut down contact sports. The Olympic Champion,and best wrestler on the planet,Sudelov from Russia,just got Covid-19. His family and some loved ones in his village got sick. All our isolating. Like always,I don't have any answers. I just think the children will dictate everything this summer. Camps,pools,gyms,are all closed for children. A real mess,I'm afraid. Kids always come first for all of us. We have to ensure their safety. Which we cannot do right now. We certainly don't want to experiment with children's safety. Special needs children have a right to free education in the least restrictive environment. A good percentage have respiratory issues. We cannot at this time ensure their safety.
It appears that most of college football will be playing, not sure in certain states. Even the Bears are concerned about Illinois but feel things will work out with their nut job governor. But, as far as the NBA, if one player gets it then the whole team is out. Sorta crazy but a half ass team may win the NBA championship if someone from the Bucks, Lakers, and Clippers get the wuhan virus.
I think a lot of people are trying to stay safe and that makes a difference. Many people don't go into public buildings with out a mask and here in Utah we were never totally shut down. Personally, I'm not ready to go back to restaurants, or school, certainly not church (and I love to go to church but I think public singing is one of the most dangerous things) and I limit my social circle to family (ten people, three have recovered from Covid and 5 friends.
)People are going stir crazy here. We are not seeing a spike in cases and the hospital staffing needs are being met.I think a lot of people are trying to stay safe and that makes a difference. Many people don't go into public buildings with out a mask and here in Utah we were never totally shut down. Personally, I'm not ready to go back to restaurants, or school, certainly not church (and I love to go to church but I think public singing is one of the most dangerous things) and I limit my social circle to family (ten people, three have recovered from Covid and 5 friends.
My point is, one of the reasons it is not spreading rapidly (number of cases are still increasing about 15% per week in Utah) is that some people are taking precautions. I wish more people would wear masks because by not wearing a mask, they take away my freedom and if escalate they will take away all our freedom to watch football. (had to keep it football related
