Following up on last week's comparison, here are some statistics comparing the Cats and Michigan as well as some observations relative thereto. With the disclaimers that stats are for losers and there are lies, damn lies, and statistics, here goes. As usual, I use the adjusted statistics from the AdjustedStats.com website. Same format as last week showing the adjusted statistics with the rank in parentheses.
Northwestern offense YPP (Rank)
Total 5.434 (66)
Rush 4.546 (49)
Pass 6.863 (64)
Northwestern defense YPP (Rank)
Total 4.250 (13)
Rush 4.213 (64)
Pass 3.724 (3)
Michigan offense YPP (Rank)
Total 5.363 (71)
Rush 4.471 (55)
Pass 6.566 (71)
Michigan defense
Total 2.855 (2)
Rush 1.914 (5)
Pass 4.055 (4)
Here's what I see, based upon these stats. Two very evenly matched teams, although the Cats rush defense is not ranked as high as one might expect. That doesn't really bother me, especially based upon our performance last week and our third down defense. So, with things so even, to try and figure out who might have the advantage, I took a little deeper dive than last week.
The first thing I noticed was 3rd down efficiency. On the offensive side, this is the percentage of times you make a first down and on the defensive side the percentage of times your defense allows a first down.
Northwestern Third down % (Rank)
Offense .462 (20)
Defense .215 (3)
Michigan Third down % (Rank)
Offense .383 (68)
Defense .191 (2)
Both teams obviously have superior 3rd down defenses, but the Cats' third down offensive efficiency is much better. I believe that is a testament to how the Cats have been able to put themselves in manageable distances on 3rd down this year. I expect the Cats to convert at least twice as many third downs as Michigan. Advantage Cats.
The second thing I noticed was turnovers. The Cats have forced 8 turnovers this year and are plus 3 in turnover margin. Michigan has forced 7 turnovers and is minus 2 in turnover margin. Advantage Cats.
On special teams, not much difference, although our kick off return is ranked 2nd. Thanks Solomon.
Overall, I (like most everyone) expect a close, low scoring game, but believe the Cats will win. Even playing in the Big House, I like the Cats 16-6. Go Cats!
Northwestern offense YPP (Rank)
Total 5.434 (66)
Rush 4.546 (49)
Pass 6.863 (64)
Northwestern defense YPP (Rank)
Total 4.250 (13)
Rush 4.213 (64)
Pass 3.724 (3)
Michigan offense YPP (Rank)
Total 5.363 (71)
Rush 4.471 (55)
Pass 6.566 (71)
Michigan defense
Total 2.855 (2)
Rush 1.914 (5)
Pass 4.055 (4)
Here's what I see, based upon these stats. Two very evenly matched teams, although the Cats rush defense is not ranked as high as one might expect. That doesn't really bother me, especially based upon our performance last week and our third down defense. So, with things so even, to try and figure out who might have the advantage, I took a little deeper dive than last week.
The first thing I noticed was 3rd down efficiency. On the offensive side, this is the percentage of times you make a first down and on the defensive side the percentage of times your defense allows a first down.
Northwestern Third down % (Rank)
Offense .462 (20)
Defense .215 (3)
Michigan Third down % (Rank)
Offense .383 (68)
Defense .191 (2)
Both teams obviously have superior 3rd down defenses, but the Cats' third down offensive efficiency is much better. I believe that is a testament to how the Cats have been able to put themselves in manageable distances on 3rd down this year. I expect the Cats to convert at least twice as many third downs as Michigan. Advantage Cats.
The second thing I noticed was turnovers. The Cats have forced 8 turnovers this year and are plus 3 in turnover margin. Michigan has forced 7 turnovers and is minus 2 in turnover margin. Advantage Cats.
On special teams, not much difference, although our kick off return is ranked 2nd. Thanks Solomon.
Overall, I (like most everyone) expect a close, low scoring game, but believe the Cats will win. Even playing in the Big House, I like the Cats 16-6. Go Cats!
