I know stats are for losers, but sure can be interesting. I thought I would compare Northwestern and Minnesota's relative statistical performances year to date using both absolute and adjusted basis using information from the website AdjustedStats.com. At the website, you can find a number of stats for each college team. To me, the most relevant stats are the adjusted stats, which are simply the actual stats adjusted to the level of the competition. For example, if a team plays the 4 worst rushing defenses in its first 4 games, it should expect to have a pretty high yards per rush average.In fact, it probably should lead all teams in the nation in rushing yards per play. Adjustment based upon the level of competition can give u a much more accurate picture of how a team is really doing.
Below I set forth stats for the offense and defense of both the Cats and Minnesota for both offense and defense, and include the actual and adjusted stats for Yards Per Play (YPP), Rushing Yards Per Play (R) and Passing Yards Per Play (P). Finally, I also include in parentheses where a team ranks nationwide among the 128 BCS teams for both their actual and adjusted stats.
Northwestern Offense Actual Adjusted
YPP 4.701 (107) 5.661 (60)
R 4.339 (59) 5.270 (24)
P 5.456 (110) 6.537 (76)
Northwestern Defense Actual Adjusted
YPP 4.517 (21) 4.742 (32)
R 4.415 (81) 5.018 (88)
P 4.431 (4) 3.858 (8)
Minnesota Offense Actual Adjusted
YPP 5.05 (81) 4.646 (101)
R 3.950 (80) 4.150 (70)
P 6.317 (90) 5.112 (112)
Minnesota Defense Actual Adjusted
YPP 4.417 (16) 4.136 (18)
R 3.929 (49) 4.427 (74)
P 5.00 (10) 3.899 (10)
This indicates that our rushing game is much better than that of Minnesota. The Cats passing game is actually better, although the differential is not as great as in the run. Both teams pretty much mirror each other on the defensive side, somewhat below average run defense and superior passing defense, with the overall result that both teams are pretty good defensively.
My conclusion is that the Cats should be able to move the ball on the Minny D, but the Minny O will have a much harder time moving on our D. Overall, I expect the Cats to win. While the game should be low scoring, I think there's a good chance that it won't be quite as close as most predictions. i.e., the final score will have more than a seven point differential. Hope I'm right. Go Cats!
Below I set forth stats for the offense and defense of both the Cats and Minnesota for both offense and defense, and include the actual and adjusted stats for Yards Per Play (YPP), Rushing Yards Per Play (R) and Passing Yards Per Play (P). Finally, I also include in parentheses where a team ranks nationwide among the 128 BCS teams for both their actual and adjusted stats.
Northwestern Offense Actual Adjusted
YPP 4.701 (107) 5.661 (60)
R 4.339 (59) 5.270 (24)
P 5.456 (110) 6.537 (76)
Northwestern Defense Actual Adjusted
YPP 4.517 (21) 4.742 (32)
R 4.415 (81) 5.018 (88)
P 4.431 (4) 3.858 (8)
Minnesota Offense Actual Adjusted
YPP 5.05 (81) 4.646 (101)
R 3.950 (80) 4.150 (70)
P 6.317 (90) 5.112 (112)
Minnesota Defense Actual Adjusted
YPP 4.417 (16) 4.136 (18)
R 3.929 (49) 4.427 (74)
P 5.00 (10) 3.899 (10)
This indicates that our rushing game is much better than that of Minnesota. The Cats passing game is actually better, although the differential is not as great as in the run. Both teams pretty much mirror each other on the defensive side, somewhat below average run defense and superior passing defense, with the overall result that both teams are pretty good defensively.
My conclusion is that the Cats should be able to move the ball on the Minny D, but the Minny O will have a much harder time moving on our D. Overall, I expect the Cats to win. While the game should be low scoring, I think there's a good chance that it won't be quite as close as most predictions. i.e., the final score will have more than a seven point differential. Hope I'm right. Go Cats!
