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NJCat

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From collegefootballnews.com:

"The staying power is finally here.
With a second ten-win season in three years and a third in six years, Northwestern is well past the point of just being some try-hard, feel-good-story program under Pat Fitzgerald.

After years and years of pushing, on the low end, this is a regular team in the bowl pecking order, and in a perfect world, Fitzgerald might be on the verge of creating another Stanford.

The pivot to go from Point B to C – meaning being a player in the conference championship race – could be coming soon."


A pretty upbeat summary despite putting the season at around 6 wins......

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/06/northwestern-wildcats-college-football-preview-2018
 
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From collegefootballnews.com:

"The staying power is finally here.
With a second ten-win season in three years and a third in six years, Northwestern is well past the point of just being some try-hard, feel-good-story program under Pat Fitzgerald.

After years and years of pushing, on the low end, this is a regular team in the bowl pecking order, and in a perfect world, Fitzgerald might be on the verge of creating another Stanford.

The pivot to go from Point B to C – meaning being a player in the conference championship race – could be coming soon."


A pretty upbeat summary despite putting the season at around 6 wins......

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/06/northwestern-wildcats-college-football-preview-2018
Thanks for the link. Nice Sunday AM read.
It sure didn't seem like NU was the worst against the pass last year. Was that simply because they were so good against the run? Losing Godwin and Kyle doesn't make me feel too good about improving against the pass.
 
Thanks for the link. Nice Sunday AM read.
It sure didn't seem like NU was the worst against the pass last year. Was that simply because they were so good against the run? Losing Godwin and Kyle doesn't make me feel too good about improving against the pass.

Hank’s defense is predicated on giving up passing yardage to prevent big plays. Doesn’t help for total yards against stats, which is usually what these kind of articles cite.
 
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Hank’s defense is predicated on giving up passing yardage to prevent big plays. Doesn’t help for total yards against stats, which is usually what these kind of articles cite.
Actually, I think this is one of 3 reasons the pass defense gave up a lot of yards. This one, where they play a soft zone with room underneath has been true of Hank’s defenses for years. Last year, though, I thought the safeties often cheated toward stopping the run and were beat deep, and injuries to the cornerbacks early in the season made the coverage even softer than usual.
 
Yes, thx for sharing. Fair article. I don’t know why, but I think we’re going to be OK with the DBs. Really hoping for Saunders is going to significantly fill hole left by #1. Agree that beating Purdue will be a key to the season.
 
Thought this part was interesting:

2017 Northwestern Fun Stats
– NU Scoring: 1st 40, 2nd 143, 3rd 47, 4th 114
– Rushing TDs: Northwestern 30 – Opponents 13
– Fumbles: Opponents 19 (lost 8) – Northwestern 8 (lost 6)

The scoring imbalance at the start and end of halves makes me wonder if we are still overcoming athleticism disadvantages with work ethic, discipline, and depth. Cats get stronger as the half wears on? Or perhaps this is a normal imbalance for most teams. Haven't looked.

Typical pessumism despite all evidence. No mention of the level of injuries faced in DBs or WRs last season. Basically a statistics based analysis without attention to the details.

This writer lost a lot of credibility with me when he tried to insinuate that UoI is going to be a threat to the Cats this season. Improved? Perhaps. But short of simply lining up full trash bags on the field, it would be hard to get much worse. Love how the writer assumes the other teams all get better somehow while Cats can't? Typical irrelevant historical bias. How much more evidence is needed for a writer to actually begin to believe?
 
Hank’s defense is predicated on giving up passing yardage to prevent big plays. Doesn’t help for total yards against stats, which is usually what these kind of articles cite.
Yes, we are currently a bend but don’t break defense. We were a monster against the run last year but struggled against the pass. Kentucky carved us up with the pass despite them being a running team all season. I hope we can return to the sky team of 2015 when we had 2 shutdown corners in Nick VanHoose and Matt Harris
 
Thought this part was interesting:

2017 Northwestern Fun Stats
– NU Scoring: 1st 40, 2nd 143, 3rd 47, 4th 114
– Rushing TDs: Northwestern 30 – Opponents 13
– Fumbles: Opponents 19 (lost 8) – Northwestern 8 (lost 6)

The scoring imbalance at the start and end of halves makes me wonder if we are still overcoming athleticism disadvantages with work ethic, discipline, and depth. Cats get stronger as the half wears on? Or perhaps this is a normal imbalance for most teams. Haven't looked.

Typical pessumism despite all evidence. No mention of the level of injuries faced in DBs or WRs last season. Basically a statistics based analysis without attention to the details.

This writer lost a lot of credibility with me when he tried to insinuate that UoI is going to be a threat to the Cats this season. Improved? Perhaps. But short of simply lining up full trash bags on the field, it would be hard to get much worse. Love how the writer assumes the other teams all get better somehow while Cats can't? Typical irrelevant historical bias. How much more evidence is needed for a writer to actually begin to believe?
To me, the scoring imbalance is due to the number of games/halves in which we started looking totally unprepared for what the other team threw at us. How many times have we complained about lack of adjustment at the half?
 
Yes, we are currently a bend but don’t break defense. We were a monster against the run last year but struggled against the pass. Kentucky carved us up with the pass despite them being a running team all season. I hope we can return to the sky team of 2015 when we had 2 shutdown corners in Nick VanHoose and Matt Harris

Hank has always been “bend don’t break” cover3 or 4, even with those corners.
 
To me, the scoring imbalance is due to the number of games/halves in which we started looking totally unprepared for what the other team threw at us. How many times have we complained about lack of adjustment at the half?

That doesn’t make sense in light of better second and fourth quarter scoring.
 
Thought this part was interesting:

2017 Northwestern Fun Stats
– NU Scoring: 1st 40, 2nd 143, 3rd 47, 4th 114
– Rushing TDs: Northwestern 30 – Opponents 13
– Fumbles: Opponents 19 (lost 8) – Northwestern 8 (lost 6)

The scoring imbalance at the start and end of halves makes me wonder if we are still overcoming athleticism disadvantages with work ethic, discipline, and depth. Cats get stronger as the half wears on? Or perhaps this is a normal imbalance for most teams. Haven't looked.

Typical pessumism despite all evidence. No mention of the level of injuries faced in DBs or WRs last season. Basically a statistics based analysis without attention to the details.

This writer lost a lot of credibility with me when he tried to insinuate that UoI is going to be a threat to the Cats this season. Improved? Perhaps. But short of simply lining up full trash bags on the field, it would be hard to get much worse. Love how the writer assumes the other teams all get better somehow while Cats can't? Typical irrelevant historical bias. How much more evidence is needed for a writer to actually begin to believe?

The IllinI will arguably be WORSE this year.
 
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Hank has always been “bend don’t break” cover3 or 4, even with those corners.
But a defense cover 3 or 4 is lethal with 2 shutdown corners who can hold their own on an island and an instinctive middle linebacker like A walk
 
Thanks for the complete breakdown on what he said that is incorrect. I learned a lot.

It’s true in a general “better to have better players” because I don’t think anyone could possibly argue otherwise.

But the entire premise of a cover-3 or cover-4 is to prevent corners from ever being “on an island” by consistently providing safety help over the top and/or rolling coverage. The whole idea is to keep everything in front of the defense, forcing the offense to execute its way downfield while opportunistically forcing turnovers when the offense makes the inevitable mistake because execution is more difficult at the college level than in the pros.
 
It’s true in a general “better to have better players” because I don’t think anyone could possibly argue otherwise.

But the entire premise of a cover-3 or cover-4 is to prevent corners from ever being “on an island” by consistently providing safety help over the top and/or rolling coverage. The whole idea is to keep everything in front of the defense, forcing the offense to execute its way downfield while opportunistically forcing turnovers when the offense makes the inevitable mistake because execution is more difficult at the college level than in the pros.
Good answer. Thanks.
 
It’s true in a general “better to have better players” because I don’t think anyone could possibly argue otherwise.

But the entire premise of a cover-3 or cover-4 is to prevent corners from ever being “on an island” by consistently providing safety help over the top and/or rolling coverage. The whole idea is to keep everything in front of the defense, forcing the offense to execute its way downfield while opportunistically forcing turnovers when the offense makes the inevitable mistake because execution is more difficult at the college level than in the pros.
Your answer was so good, I was almost sorry for the sarcasm.
 
They can get worse???

Losing to Kent State in the opener would mean that they are worse than last year, and I believe that they have a decent shot at losing. They have a new offensive coordinator, their best QB probably transferred, their incumbent QB has yet to prove to anyone that he can actually, well, throw the ball, and they are playing a lot of true sophmores who should have probably redshirted their freshman seasons. There's a lot that can simply implode here.
 
I'm probably in the minority here, but I think they will be better in 2018. They were mostly freshmen playing against juniors and seniors last year and they got shoved around badly (especially against NU). They may not have any more wins than last year, but for some reason, I think they'll be a tougher out.

They should beat Kent State, Rutgers and Western Illinois, and depending on how fast they grow up, have a chance against Minnesota (11/3), and Maryland (10/27).
 
I'm probably in the minority here, but I think they will be better in 2018. They were mostly freshmen playing against juniors and seniors last year and they got shoved around badly (especially against NU). They may not have any more wins than last year, but for some reason, I think they'll be a tougher out.

They should beat Kent State, Rutgers and Western Illinois, and depending on how fast they grow up, have a chance against Minnesota (11/3), and Maryland (10/27).
Maryland has a lot of good young talent. Youth and key injuries hindered its development last year, but Durkin is a good coach who will have the Terrapins playing well this year.
 
I'm probably in the minority here, but I think they will be better in 2018. They were mostly freshmen playing against juniors and seniors last year and they got shoved around badly (especially against NU). They may not have any more wins than last year, but for some reason, I think they'll be a tougher out.

They should beat Kent State, Rutgers and Western Illinois, and depending on how fast they grow up, have a chance against Minnesota (11/3), and Maryland (10/27).

No way. Their QB situation alone will probably make the situation worse. They also lost via transfer or graduation there best playmakers on defense. I think the Western Illinois and Kent State games will be struggles for them.
 
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From collegefootballnews.com:

"The staying power is finally here.
With a second ten-win season in three years and a third in six years, Northwestern is well past the point of just being some try-hard, feel-good-story program under Pat Fitzgerald.

After years and years of pushing, on the low end, this is a regular team in the bowl pecking order, and in a perfect world, Fitzgerald might be on the verge of creating another Stanford.

The pivot to go from Point B to C – meaning being a player in the conference championship race – could be coming soon."


A pretty upbeat summary despite putting the season at around 6 wins......

https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/06/northwestern-wildcats-college-football-preview-2018
In spite of several question marks -- replacing safeties and Lanny on D, replacing JJTBC and rehabbing Thorson on offense -- I am thinking we should win at least 9 games against a tough schedule. We have pretty good experience everywhere, except QB (during Thorson absence). Need to get past the first game against Purdue.
 
In spite of several question marks -- replacing safeties and Lanny on D, replacing JJTBC and rehabbing Thorson on offense -- I am thinking we should win at least 9 games against a tough schedule. We have pretty good experience everywhere, except QB (during Thorson absence). Need to get past the first game against Purdue.
If we are worrying about getting past Purdue, winning "at least" 9 games is a tall order. I agree that we could be a better team than last year but remember, last year we played to a tie three times in regulation. A win is a win but if the ball bounces funny just one time in each of those games and NU is a 6 win team at the seasons end. If we beat Purdue, I think 9 wins is the ceiling. It is a tough schedule. OTOH college football is crazy and the Cats are a very focused team under Fitz. Win the first 4 games and the sky is the limit.
 
If we are worrying about getting past Purdue, winning "at least" 9 games is a tall order. I agree that we could be a better team than last year but remember, last year we played to a tie three times in regulation. A win is a win but if the ball bounces funny just one time in each of those games and NU is a 6 win team at the seasons end. If we beat Purdue, I think 9 wins is the ceiling. It is a tough schedule. OTOH college football is crazy and the Cats are a very focused team under Fitz. Win the first 4 games and the sky is the limit.
We've stumbled out of the gate the past two seasons so the Purdue game is important, though not necessarily an indicator of how well we'll play this year.
 
If we are worrying about getting past Purdue, winning "at least" 9 games is a tall order. I agree that we could be a better team than last year but remember, last year we played to a tie three times in regulation. A win is a win but if the ball bounces funny just one time in each of those games and NU is a 6 win team at the seasons end. If we beat Purdue, I think 9 wins is the ceiling. It is a tough schedule. OTOH college football is crazy and the Cats are a very focused team under Fitz. Win the first 4 games and the sky is the limit.

The same thing could be said for Michigan State last year. Beating Iowa 17-10, Michigan 14-10, Minnesota 30-27 (!!!) and Indiana 17-9 before falling to the Cats in OT. I'm not intimidated by them.

Wisconsin and Michigan, on the other hand, present problem. Namely, Wisconsin is dominant in the trenches and Michigan has a bunch of 5-star talent that can overwhelm NU, like we saw in 2015.

As it has been for the last several years, seven regular-season wins remains the baseline for me. I do think NU can get to 10 with a healthy Thorson and if everything breaks the right way.
 
The Purdue game is the most important game of the season.
I can't decide if I agree with this because it is true or because the early losses last year made what turned out to be a great season seem a little perfunctory. Just think what the energy during last season would have been if we had played Wisconsin and PSU in weeks 9 and 10 with Illinois week 11.
 
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The Purdue game is the most important game of the season.
I disagree.
The primary goal of the regular season is to win the division, and secondary to improve the perception of the program. To those ends, I think this is the hierarchy of game importance:

1) Intradivisional against probable contenders-head to head and intradivisional record tiebreakers
2) Other intradivisional teams- intradivisional tie-breaker
3) Ranked interdivisional - Win raises profile
4) Other interdivisional
5) Ranked OOC
6) Non-power 5: loss lowers profile
7) Other power 5

This year, I would rank the schedule:

1) Wisconsin
2) Iowa
3) Nebraska - Still perceived as a power
4) Illinois - A loss would be damaging from perception standpoint
5) Purdue
6) Minnesota
7) Michigan
8) MSU
9) Rutgers
10) ND
11) Akron
12) Duke
 
I disagree.
The primary goal of the regular season is to win the division, and secondary to improve the perception of the program. To those ends, I think this is the hierarchy of game importance:

1) Intradivisional against probable contenders-head to head and intradivisional record tiebreakers
2) Other intradivisional teams- intradivisional tie-breaker
3) Ranked interdivisional - Win raises profile
4) Other interdivisional
5) Ranked OOC
6) Non-power 5: loss lowers profile
7) Other power 5

This year, I would rank the schedule:

1) Wisconsin
2) Iowa
3) Nebraska - Still perceived as a power
4) Illinois - A loss would be damaging from perception standpoint
5) Purdue
6) Minnesota
7) Michigan
8) MSU
9) Rutgers
10) ND
11) Akron
12) Duke

I generally agree but the timing of the Purdue game makes it much more significant from a perception standpoint. It is primetime on Thursday night on ESPN just as college football fans are gearing up for the first full Saturday of the season. NU will be undoubtedly touting its “longest win streak in the Power 5” heading into the season. There will be some buzz about Hunter Johnson, perhaps even highlighting that he chose NU over Purdue.

A convincing win over Purdue might even be enough to get NU ranked (they finished last year No. 17 but don’t see them in the preseason Top 25). It would go a long way toward getting people excited, unlike the past couple of years.

Long story short, the timing of the game elevates its importance. But in the grand scheme of things, of course Wisconsin is the most crucial game.
 
Again, I disagree, particularly if Thorson does not play or is less than 100%. The game would be viewed as a one off in that case. If Thorson plays and is full speed, it will be viewed as game Cats should win, but mild upset if a loss with rest of season to recover. In either case, it falls into nice to win/ recoverable loss.
 
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