Rutgers and Nebraska. I don't think Rutgers defense was the issue. It was purdues injuries on offense.
Open as +3 underdogs at Purdue
- Thread starter Mr Wickerpark
- Start date
+3 on the road means both teams are basically even.
That's a fair evaluation of this Purdue game. It's about as much of a tossup game as we've ever had to start the season. Nothing would be a surprise to me in that game from us winning by a couple TDs to us losing by a couple TDs.
That's a fair evaluation of this Purdue game. It's about as much of a tossup game as we've ever had to start the season. Nothing would be a surprise to me in that game from us winning by a couple TDs to us losing by a couple TDs.
I'd be surprised either way. I'm expecting a close game, Fitz-style. Played close to the vest with a narrow NU victory.
Expect Victory.
Illinois is no longer in the B1G??
Darrell Hazell beat illinios. That's when you know it's bad.
I just don't see how Purdue is going to morph into this offensive juggernaut from last year to this year. Our defense handled them fine last year, and I don't think we take much if any of a step back this year. Our D will be top 20 again. While we lost our two starters at safety, McGee has a ton of experience and was our regular nickel, and JR Pace or Travis Whillock or someone should be able to step in and do fine. And so, you are basically looking at replacing one position on our defense where there is relative inexperience. Two if you count the third linebacker (offset by perhaps the best LB duo in the B1G) and I don't count the DT position because we rotated significantly last year as well again this year.
Meanwhile half of Purdue's defense will be new. It wasn't that good last year, and it is likely to be worse this year. Frankly, I look at it and it seems to be a shambles. A fricking sieve. Thorson is likely to be back day one, our OL is largely intact, our WRs are largely back along with Jalen Brown (who I think will be our #1 this year). We've seen what Thorson can do against poor defences and so I will be surprised if we don't put up 30+ on this team. Does anyone here not drinking Black and Gold Kool-Aid really think Purdue is going to put up 30 on us? Even 20? We lose JJTBC of course, but as anyone has pointed out our RB room is super deep, and Jeremy Larkin is likely more explosive than Jackson anyways. He was already in limited touches last year. I don't see how they will stop us.
It seems much of Purdue's hype is based on incoming talent and youth. Which may blossom as the season progresses, but isn't likely to have it together by the first game of the season. I don't see this world class elite talent anyways. Everyone seems to think they are going to roll up points on NU (see Kentucky last year) and it just never happens.
Fitz is 10-2 in openers and it's not like we're starting out against a ranked team, so I really don't understand the Vegas spread (which is contrary to ESPN's statistical predictor) unless it's premised on Thorson not being available (which doesn't seem to be the case) and on what basis they are seeing this for Purdue, but hey, we have an immaculate record ATS. If people want to make money, this is the game to go heavy on the Cats.
Meanwhile half of Purdue's defense will be new. It wasn't that good last year, and it is likely to be worse this year. Frankly, I look at it and it seems to be a shambles. A fricking sieve. Thorson is likely to be back day one, our OL is largely intact, our WRs are largely back along with Jalen Brown (who I think will be our #1 this year). We've seen what Thorson can do against poor defences and so I will be surprised if we don't put up 30+ on this team. Does anyone here not drinking Black and Gold Kool-Aid really think Purdue is going to put up 30 on us? Even 20? We lose JJTBC of course, but as anyone has pointed out our RB room is super deep, and Jeremy Larkin is likely more explosive than Jackson anyways. He was already in limited touches last year. I don't see how they will stop us.
It seems much of Purdue's hype is based on incoming talent and youth. Which may blossom as the season progresses, but isn't likely to have it together by the first game of the season. I don't see this world class elite talent anyways. Everyone seems to think they are going to roll up points on NU (see Kentucky last year) and it just never happens.
Fitz is 10-2 in openers and it's not like we're starting out against a ranked team, so I really don't understand the Vegas spread (which is contrary to ESPN's statistical predictor) unless it's premised on Thorson not being available (which doesn't seem to be the case) and on what basis they are seeing this for Purdue, but hey, we have an immaculate record ATS. If people want to make money, this is the game to go heavy on the Cats.
How was our defense not that good last year in your eyes? Last year per ESPN, NU was 40th and Purdue was 49th in total defense. NU was 96th and Purdue 83rd in pass defense. NU was 8th and Purdue was 30th in run defense. NU was 33rd with 32 sacks and Purdue was 45th with 29 sacks. NU was 15th with 17 interceptions and Purdue was 67th with 10 interceptions.
Not sure how Northwestern's D was great last year while Purdues was bad in your eyes. I also never said Purdues offense would be a juggernaut. I said they should be the strength of the team where they should take a large step forward. The D this year has some nice pieces including one of the best LB'ers in the league, but also has a lot of youth. Brohm seems to like the D though, which gives Purdue fans hope that it won't be as bad as we expect.
Didn't realize they were that good. Still, my point stands. Your D was slightly worse than ours last year and loses a ton. You aim to reload through talented youth, but Ohio State you are not. Our D has much less to replace.
Meanwhile, I don't see anything scary at all about your offense. Our defense had no problem with it last year, and I doubt they will have any issue this year. Our QB is better. Our RBs our better. Our OL is returning largely intact. Our WRs largely return along with Jalen Brown, the transfer from Oregon, who was hurt in the 1st game last season and whom I think will be our #1.
Our O > than your O.
Our D >> than your D.
Our coach > than your coach.
Our facilities >>>>>>> than yours.
I'll be shocked if we lose to Purdue, barring Thorson not being available.
Once again someone shows you’re wrong, and you pretend it didn’t happen.
Our players have not been mentally equipped over the past 2 seasons, at the beginning of each season. It is almost like they take for granted early season victories. Either that or the coaches simply havent adequately prepared against these ooc teams. The good thing is that we know Purdue so we should be properly equipped.
Our posters have not been mentally equipped to handle the vagaries of college football in recent years. Back in the Dark Ages we were a lot tougher. Man up, turk!
I know it has been said before, but we started last season with this silly ass experiment of moving Hance to left guard, Thompson to left tackle, plus right tackle up in the air between Vogel and I don’t remember who.After what happened the previous season, I could not understand why Butler was on the bench. Every time he gets into the lineup the offense plays better.After the first two or three games, Hance goes back to tackle, Butler goes to left guard, Slater to right tackle, and we start playing better. Right now the only issue seems to be who will start at center.For some reason I hope that Gerak wins the job and becomes a star.Maybe it’s because I want to believe that our line recruiting has improved in the last couple of years.
Why would Jared Thomas playing center mean recruiting hasn’t improved? He’s class of 2015.
Well it might mean that he was recruited over by Gerak who is class of 17.As usual I’m sure you will try to get in the last word
Rutgers has the NU game penciled in as a win for them. Rutgers should be highly motivated and NU may be less than highly motivated, but Rutgers is, in a word, awful.
Rutgers is all-in on a true Freshman QB, and Rutgers is sorting out a credit card scandal among as many as 8 players. If Rutgers loses to Kansas in their opener, their season will likely go arse over tin cups.
Rutgers is exponentially better than Illinois. I wouldn’t take them for granted.
This is Rutgers we're talking about.
If we're thinking of losing to Rutgers, we mind as well give up on every other game this year (except maybe Illinois and Akron).
+1 for exponentially, but Rutgers is to the B1G as the Washington Generals is to the Harlem Globetrotters.
You guys greatly overestimate the gap between most teams in the Big Ten. The difference typically comes down to 1 or 2 players, some good luck on the injury front, and a few favorable calls. Chris Ash is a good coach and Rutgers has consistently produced NFL caliber talent. Ash has not produced results in the win column yet, but I think they are on the right path and should not be taken for granted.
We won 4 games in overtime last year...; those are coin flip games but due to a combination of clutch and luck, we took them all.
If you play each of those games 10 times, they probably split 5-5 or 6-4.
Most Big Ten games against everyone in the middle of the conference will be like that unless you're talking about the best or worst teams.
Illinois is a gimme, but a lot of these other Big Ten games like Rutgers are going to be games we win 7 times out of 10, maybe 5 or 6.
Purdue's a team that I could see us beating 5 or 6 times out of 10. As always with football, that die is cast only once.
If you play each of those games 10 times, they probably split 5-5 or 6-4.
Most Big Ten games against everyone in the middle of the conference will be like that unless you're talking about the best or worst teams.
Illinois is a gimme, but a lot of these other Big Ten games like Rutgers are going to be games we win 7 times out of 10, maybe 5 or 6.
Purdue's a team that I could see us beating 5 or 6 times out of 10. As always with football, that die is cast only once.
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Whoops, the 3 in a row; Kentucky going for 2 always sticks in my head as an overtime game though it obviously wasn't.
Should be a great game. One thing for sure the Purdue crowd should be rocking that Thursday night! Fan base has been starving, much like how you all were years ago. Fans are fired up for this game and we are riding the monument wave as long as we can. Should be a great game and atmosphere
The line has creeped up to 3.5 at a few places even with news that Thorson is practicing. I have no doubt it will close under 3. Not sure if this is good or bad but Phil Steele put this out on ESPN insider.
Early Week 1 college football value bets
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
Week 1 of the college football season is less than a month away, but the numbers have been out on the contests for some time. I will have my top seven or eight plays for Week 1 in the days before the games kick off, but it never hurts to get an early start.Here are five early selections on the Week 1 games. Play these games now, as a month's time might leave the lines less favorable.Note: All odds are via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 3.
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-3.5)
Last season, Northwestern faced Purdue after three straight overtime wins. The Wildcats led 20-0 late in the first half and won 23-13 as a 4.5-point home favorite. The last time the team was at Purdue, Northwestern rolled 45-17 with 605 yards of offense. The Boilermakers lose nine of their top 12 tacklers and are weaker on defense this season. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson should be back after ACL surgery a season ago. The Wildcats are No. 25 on my Experience Chart and have seven starters back on defense, including linebacker Paddy Fisher. The Wildcats went 3-1 in the Big Ten on the road last year, only losing at Wisconsin. I feel they are the stronger team, and I will call for the Wildcats in a close one. Right now, you get Northwestern as a 3.5-point underdog, and that half point could be huge.ATS pick: Northwestern +3.5
Early Week 1 college football value bets
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
Week 1 of the college football season is less than a month away, but the numbers have been out on the contests for some time. I will have my top seven or eight plays for Week 1 in the days before the games kick off, but it never hurts to get an early start.Here are five early selections on the Week 1 games. Play these games now, as a month's time might leave the lines less favorable.Note: All odds are via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 3.
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-3.5)
Last season, Northwestern faced Purdue after three straight overtime wins. The Wildcats led 20-0 late in the first half and won 23-13 as a 4.5-point home favorite. The last time the team was at Purdue, Northwestern rolled 45-17 with 605 yards of offense. The Boilermakers lose nine of their top 12 tacklers and are weaker on defense this season. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson should be back after ACL surgery a season ago. The Wildcats are No. 25 on my Experience Chart and have seven starters back on defense, including linebacker Paddy Fisher. The Wildcats went 3-1 in the Big Ten on the road last year, only losing at Wisconsin. I feel they are the stronger team, and I will call for the Wildcats in a close one. Right now, you get Northwestern as a 3.5-point underdog, and that half point could be huge.ATS pick: Northwestern +3.5
I think everyone tends to agree that it should be an incredibly good game.The line has creeped up to 3.5 at a few places even with news that Thorson is practicing. I have no doubt it will close under 3. Not sure if this is good or bad but Phil Steele put this out on ESPN insider.
Early Week 1 college football value bets
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
Week 1 of the college football season is less than a month away, but the numbers have been out on the contests for some time. I will have my top seven or eight plays for Week 1 in the days before the games kick off, but it never hurts to get an early start.Here are five early selections on the Week 1 games. Play these games now, as a month's time might leave the lines less favorable.Note: All odds are via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 3.
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-3.5)
Last season, Northwestern faced Purdue after three straight overtime wins. The Wildcats led 20-0 late in the first half and won 23-13 as a 4.5-point home favorite. The last time the team was at Purdue, Northwestern rolled 45-17 with 605 yards of offense. The Boilermakers lose nine of their top 12 tacklers and are weaker on defense this season. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson should be back after ACL surgery a season ago. The Wildcats are No. 25 on my Experience Chart and have seven starters back on defense, including linebacker Paddy Fisher. The Wildcats went 3-1 in the Big Ten on the road last year, only losing at Wisconsin. I feel they are the stronger team, and I will call for the Wildcats in a close one. Right now, you get Northwestern as a 3.5-point underdog, and that half point could be huge.ATS pick: Northwestern +3.5
I would guess betting action would be slow in advance of hearing news on Thorson’s health after a week or so of camp. Bets being placed probably reflect optimism about Purdue’s general improvements. I think Thorson is worth about 10 points on a continuum from 100% participation through varying degrees of limitation to not playing at all. I would expect the line to move toward even or beyond if Thorson reports are strong. Purdue -5 would be the max if Thorson looks like a scratch.
The line has creeped up to 3.5 at a few places even with news that Thorson is practicing. I have no doubt it will close under 3. Not sure if this is good or bad but Phil Steele put this out on ESPN insider.
Early Week 1 college football value bets
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
Week 1 of the college football season is less than a month away, but the numbers have been out on the contests for some time. I will have my top seven or eight plays for Week 1 in the days before the games kick off, but it never hurts to get an early start.Here are five early selections on the Week 1 games. Play these games now, as a month's time might leave the lines less favorable.Note: All odds are via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 3.
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-3.5)
Last season, Northwestern faced Purdue after three straight overtime wins. The Wildcats led 20-0 late in the first half and won 23-13 as a 4.5-point home favorite. The last time the team was at Purdue, Northwestern rolled 45-17 with 605 yards of offense. The Boilermakers lose nine of their top 12 tacklers and are weaker on defense this season. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson should be back after ACL surgery a season ago. The Wildcats are No. 25 on my Experience Chart and have seven starters back on defense, including linebacker Paddy Fisher. The Wildcats went 3-1 in the Big Ten on the road last year, only losing at Wisconsin. I feel they are the stronger team, and I will call for the Wildcats in a close one. Right now, you get Northwestern as a 3.5-point underdog, and that half point could be huge.ATS pick: Northwestern +3.5
ESPN probably thinks TJ Green is better than Thorson
Atty boy! We will cover the spread for sure!The line has creeped up to 3.5 at a few places even with news that Thorson is practicing. I have no doubt it will close under 3. Not sure if this is good or bad but Phil Steele put this out on ESPN insider.
Early Week 1 college football value bets
Phil Steele
ESPN INSIDER
Week 1 of the college football season is less than a month away, but the numbers have been out on the contests for some time. I will have my top seven or eight plays for Week 1 in the days before the games kick off, but it never hurts to get an early start.Here are five early selections on the Week 1 games. Play these games now, as a month's time might leave the lines less favorable.Note: All odds are via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Aug. 3.
Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers (-3.5)
Last season, Northwestern faced Purdue after three straight overtime wins. The Wildcats led 20-0 late in the first half and won 23-13 as a 4.5-point home favorite. The last time the team was at Purdue, Northwestern rolled 45-17 with 605 yards of offense. The Boilermakers lose nine of their top 12 tacklers and are weaker on defense this season. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson should be back after ACL surgery a season ago. The Wildcats are No. 25 on my Experience Chart and have seven starters back on defense, including linebacker Paddy Fisher. The Wildcats went 3-1 in the Big Ten on the road last year, only losing at Wisconsin. I feel they are the stronger team, and I will call for the Wildcats in a close one. Right now, you get Northwestern as a 3.5-point underdog, and that half point could be huge.ATS pick: Northwestern +3.5
You have been a really reasonable visitor to our board so take this as a little ribbing but I think my idea of a good game and your's are very different.
The difference is that PU will have a year more in the system and some of their weapons that were not available in last years game will be available so they are likely to be more potent than last year. And while overall, the young guys might not be as developed as they will be at the end of the year, there is no film on them so there could be a surprise or two that in game 2 would not happen.
On D, I have to agree with you that PU is likely to be weaker than they were last year when we played them leaving plenty of holes to exploit. Question is, will we be able to. Again, no film.
Throw in that it is a prime time national night game and our record in such tilts has not been great. Plus we really don't know how CT will come back or even if he will play in this game.
Overall, until we know more, a toss up call is reasonable.
Result tossup
It is sounding like our defense will be a bit different this year than last year. We have a few freshman that will probably play, Especially with the new redshirt rule. We have a freshman DB that is 6'3 2 something and has been playing a lot of LB early on as well. You will probably see more 4-2-5 with him playing the nickle. We also have a freshman that cracked the starting LB rotation. Brohm is also speaking really highly of the freshman corners.
On offense, it sounds like we will be without RB Richie Worship due to a torn acl last season. (Not a surprise, it happened in like week 8 and hes 6'2 245). It sounds like Sindelar is 100% and looking really good. Rondale Moore is living up to the expectations as a freshman reciever and Jared Sparks (who was hurt last year for NU game) is playing really well.
We will be a pretty young team this year, so we will have growing pains, but Brohm is talking the defense and young guys up. Which is exciting because he is usually pretty blunt.
24 days?!
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