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OT: Baseball Free Agents

Hungry Jack

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Nov 17, 2008
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Any guess on where Harper and Machado sign?

Harper in Philly seems to be the vibe. The Dodgers went for Polluck, so they are out. I’m not convinced the Cubs are out, but looming issues in the rotation and arbitration seem to have Theo more focused on avoiding a mega deal. I think the Braves would be a good fit for Harper.

Vibe on Mooochado seems to be he wants to stay on the East Coast.
 
Any guess on where Harper and Machado sign?

Harper in Philly seems to be the vibe. The Dodgers went for Polluck, so they are out. I’m not convinced the Cubs are out, but looming issues in the rotation and arbitration seem to have Theo more focused on avoiding a mega deal. I think the Braves would be a good fit for Harper.

Vibe on Mooochado seems to be he wants to stay on the East Coast.
Super Bowl Sunday afternoon and you start a thread on baseball?

Sheesh!

Man U beat Leicester City 0-1 today to continue their hot streak after The Special One was sacked.....
 
Any guess on where Harper and Machado sign?

Harper in Philly seems to be the vibe. The Dodgers went for Polluck, so they are out. I’m not convinced the Cubs are out, but looming issues in the rotation and arbitration seem to have Theo more focused on avoiding a mega deal. I think the Braves would be a good fit for Harper.

Vibe on Mooochado seems to be he wants to stay on the East Coast.
Manny to CWS, Harper back to Nationals. Just my hunch, pathetic they’re still free agents.
 
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Watch out for the new and improved Cincinnati Reds!! Ok... you don't have to watch that carefully. But they will be better!
 
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The nationals told Boras they’re out on Harper a while ago
Close friend of mine covers the team. That’s false, I’ll leave it at that. If he doesn’t get what he wants elsewhere he’ll head back to DC IMO.
 
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Yankees DiDi Gregorius is out for the season-Machado would fill their need for a shortstop
 
The two best free agents we’ve seen in a generation should be signed with two weeks until ST...

Two best free agents in a generation? I think Two of the most overrated players in a generation. You don’t win anything with either of those guys as one of your foundational players. Neither of them is worth the type of money they are asking for.
 
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The two best free agents we’ve seen in a generation should be signed with two weeks until ST...
You have not been paying attention to the problems caused by signing free agents to huge longterm contracts. It is frequently a recipe for disaster. Also, Harper hit about .240 last year.
 
Boras is notorious for holding out for top FA deals. And Lozano (Machados) agent is probably waiting to see what Harper gets. That is part of the holdup.

Owners aren’t going to roll over on mega deals anymore. Pujols, Hayward, Davis, Cabrera, Cano, Ellsbury are just a few examples of horrible deals, albeit given to guys in their early thirties.

Throw in the fact that the Dodgers, Cubs, Sawx, and Nats are sitting this one out, it is going to be hard for Boras to start a bidding war. The Braves would be a nice fit, but they won’t do a monster deal. I’d go something like 5/150 on Harper, but Boras probably wants an ARod type deal.

And what happened to Didi? EDIT: Tommy John surgery. Oof
 
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You have not been paying attention to the problems caused by signing free agents to huge longterm contracts. It is frequently a recipe for disaster. Also, Harper hit about .240 last year.
I am aware that those deals typically don’t work. I must have missed where I said he should get 350M. They should have deals on the table that are good enough to sign by this point though.
 
Two best free agents in a generation? I think Two of the most overrated players in a generation. You don’t win anything with either of those guys as one of your foundational players. Neither of them is worth the type of money they are asking for.
Yes, the two best in a generation. Machado is a 33.7 WAR already at age 26. Harper had a down year sure, but he is still elite. 6x all-star at age 26... unheard of. MVP at age 23. They are generational talents. If you can show me a list of free agents who have accomplished more than these two through age 26, right as they enter the heart of their prime, than I’ll take back my statement.
 
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You have not been paying attention to the problems caused by signing free agents to huge longterm contracts. It is frequently a recipe for disaster. Also, Harper hit about .240 last year.
The BABIP gods were not very kind to him last year. His plate discipline numbers were good, and his line drive rate was at his career norm. All of his hitting metrics suggest an elite hitter. For a guy like a Harper, a middling .270 average projects to a lot of run creation given his power and ability to draw walks. Any way you cut it, he's an elite hitter.
 
Two best free agents in a generation? I think Two of the most overrated players in a generation. You don’t win anything with either of those guys as one of your foundational players. Neither of them is worth the type of money they are asking for.

This is a bad take
 
The BABIP gods were not very kind to him last year. His plate discipline numbers were good, and his line drive rate was at his career norm. All of his hitting metrics suggest an elite hitter. For a guy like a Harper, a middling .270 average projects to a lot of run creation given his power and ability to draw walks. Any way you cut it, he's an elite hitter.
Thank you.. his OBP was also nearly .400 last year in a “down year”. The guy makes things happen, he just happened to not be up to his normal standard last year.
I was told this from an agent in Boras corp
That’s fair. Closer to that than my source is then. He was just adamant they are not done trying to bring him back. And he told me that today.
 
My guess is that Harper wants the Cubs and Machado wants the Yankees, but neither team wants them at the current asking price, whatever it may be. I'm guessing that both players will sign a 1 year deal for lots of cash, Harper with DC and Machado with LA.
 
I am aware that those deals typically don’t work. I must have missed where I said he should get 350M. They should have deals on the table that are good enough to sign by this point though.

If they were willing to sign for half that amount, they would have been signed long ago.
 
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What's crazy as well is all the other high quality free agents that are still unsigned. Dallas Keuchel is a former Cy Young winner who was the #1 starter on the Astros WS team. Marwin Gonzalez is a versatile switch hitter who can play every position on the field other than pitcher and catcher. Both of these guys can be solid contributors to any team, and yet they're unsigned.

Harper and Machado should get the dominos falling for the rest of the free agents out there, but goodness, it's already early February.
 
This is a bad take

I think your take on my take is bad. If baseball executives with a lot better eyes than you or I felt either of these guys were difference maker generational players, they would have been signed by now. If Mike Trout or Kris Bryant were free agents on the market right now, there would be teams lined up around the block right now t give them $350MM deals. This is not about collusion, Harper and Machado have not proven to be clutch performers or the types of leaders franchises want to build around.
 
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I think your take on my take is bad. If baseball executives with a lot better eyes than you or I felt either of these guys were difference maker generational players, they would have been signed by now. If Mike Trout or Kris Bryant were free agents on the market right now, there would be teams lined up around the block right now t give them $350MM deals. This is not about collusion, Harper and Machado have not proven to be clutch performers or the types of leaders franchises want to build around.
You stated a bit ago if Harper would take 175 he’d be signed. You’re telling me that KB is worth double that? Sorry, I can’t take that seriously. Bryce and Machado should get 250 Ish each IMO. Not saying KB isn’t worth that either, but he’s certainly not worth that much more than them. Trout is possibly the best player I’ll ever watch in my lifetime, so I’ll say for him yes you may be right.
 
I think your take on my take is bad. If baseball executives with a lot better eyes than you or I felt either of these guys were difference maker generational players, they would have been signed by now. If Mike Trout or Kris Bryant were free agents on the market right now, there would be teams lined up around the block right now t give them $350MM deals. This is not about collusion, Harper and Machado have not proven to be clutch performers or the types of leaders franchises want to build around.

I work in baseball and am paid for my baseball opinion. You're looking at this as if it's black and white situation and placing a value of what YOU deem they are worth on them.

A player is worth what the free agent market dictates, which fluctuates year over year. There are many reasons, supply/demand first and foremost, to why they aren't going to break both contract length/value records when they do sign. It's a market correction due to the fact that long term deals rarely wind up cost beneficial. Not because they're "bad leaders" or "not clutch".

You are spewing opinion and projecting it as fact.
 
You stated a bit ago if Harper would take 175 he’d be signed. You’re telling me that KB is worth double that? Sorry, I can’t take that seriously. Bryce and Machado should get 250 Ish each IMO. Not saying KB isn’t worth that either, but he’s certainly not worth that much more than them. Trout is possibly the best player I’ll ever watch in my lifetime, so I’ll say for him yes you may be right.

Maybe not coming off the injury plagued year he had last season, which I view as an anomaly for him. A healthy KB performing at the level he had shown previous to last year is easily worth meaningfully more than Harper or Machado. Is that number $350mm? I don’t really know because all of it seams like Monopoly numbers to me but I am confident in saying much more than either harper of Machado. Also, call me old school, but I subscribe to the view that a player’s value is also partially driven by intangible qualities that are not fully captured by the Money Ball view of players. I think Harper and Machado are not winning ball players that have shown an ability to lead their teammates and carry their teammates in the clutch. Actually, quite the opposite.
 
Maybe not coming off the injury plagued year he had last season, which I view as an anomaly for him. A healthy KB performing at the level he had shown previous to last year is easily worth meaningfully more than Harper or Machado. Is that number $350mm? I don’t really know because all of it seams like Monopoly numbers to me but I am confident in saying much more than either harper of Machado. Also, call me old school, but I subscribe to the view that a player’s value is also partially driven by intangible qualities that are not fully captured by the Money Ball view of players. I think Harper and Machado are not winning ball players that have shown an ability to lead their teammates and carry their teammates in the clutch. Actually, quite the opposite.

Teams don't flat out ignore the intangibles but Machado and Harper are known to be relentless workers on/off the field and good teammates to boot, so your theory on them is wrong.

Mike Trout has made the playoffs once (I believe). Is he not a leader? Does he not have the clutch gene? There are 8 other players in the field.

Kris Bryant could have been on the White Sox the last few years, put up the same numbers he did with the Cubs, and the Sox still wouldn't have sniffed the playoffs.
 
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Maybe not coming off the injury plagued year he had last season, which I view as an anomaly for him. A healthy KB performing at the level he had shown previous to last year is easily worth meaningfully more than Harper or Machado. Is that number $350mm? I don’t really know because all of it seams like Monopoly numbers to me but I am confident in saying much more than either harper of Machado. Also, call me old school, but I subscribe to the view that a player’s value is also partially driven by intangible qualities that are not fully captured by the Money Ball view of players. I think Harper and Machado are not winning ball players that have shown an ability to lead their teammates and carry their teammates in the clutch. Actually, quite the opposite.
I respect your opinion, I just disagree. I love KB too, great talent when healthy. Can’t wait for the season.
 
I work in baseball and am paid for my baseball opinion. You're looking at this as if it's black and white situation and placing a value of what YOU deem they are worth on them.

A player is worth what the free agent market dictates, which fluctuates year over year. There are many reasons, supply/demand first and foremost, to why they aren't going to break both contract length/value records when they do sign. It's a market correction due to the fact that long term deals rarely wind up cost beneficial. Not because they're "bad leaders" or "not clutch".

You are spewing opinion and projecting it as fact.

I heard Jesse Rodgers on the Score make the same ridiculous arguement. Just because baseball teams are flush with cash and Harper /Machado are the best free agents available on the market doesn’t mean baseball teams should be tripping over themselves to sign these guys to “market value” deals. At a certain point, when these contracts get so big, there has to be an intrinsic value to the player that justifies giving him a contract that in most cases is equal to 20% or more of the value of the entire franchise that he plays for. In what other industry are key employees without an equity stake in the business paid at levels which equate to 20% or more of the enterprise value of the business that they work for? I can’t think of one. I realize Sports are unique but in order for a player to be worth that much money, I think he has to be a guy who has proven that he can take you over the top and win a championship. In my opinion, neither Harper nor Machado have shown to date that they can be that type of player. You may disagree and that is fine but the guys who get paid to do this for a living at the MLB level seem to have a view on these players that is a lot closer to mine than yours.
 
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Yes, the two best in a generation. Machado is a 33.7 WAR already at age 26. Harper had a down year sure, but he is still elite. 6x all-star at age 26... unheard of. MVP at age 23. They are generational talents. If you can show me a list of free agents who have accomplished more than these two through age 26, right as they enter the heart of their prime, than I’ll take back my statement.
But what about their batting average? </s>
 
Teams don't flat out ignore the intangibles but Machado and Harper are known to be relentless workers on/off the field and good teammates to boot, so your theory on them is wrong.

Mike Trout has made the playoffs once (I believe). Is he not a leader? Does he not have the clutch gene? There are 8 other players in the field.

Kris Bryant could have been on the White Sox the last few years, put up the same numbers he did with the Cubs, and the Sox still wouldn't have sniffed the playoffs.

Relentless workers? Are you kidding me? Machado in particular has made no bones about not believing in being a hustle player. He is a dog, low character player who has been a cancer on every team he has played on. Putting this in NU terms, Machado would be the type of high talent/low character player that FItz would not recruit to NU but Lovie would recruit to Illinois. The White Sox would be making a huge mistake to sign that guy as a cornerstone of their franchise, particularly with all the young impressionable young players they have coming up through their system.

I feel less strongly about Harper. My main beef with him is his inability to deliver and lead in the clutch. He is just not the guy I would pick to lead my team.
 
I heard Jesse Rodgers on the Score make the same ridiculous arguement. Just because baseball teams are flush with cash and Harper /Machado are the best free agents available on the market doesn’t mean baseball teams should be tripping over themselves to sign these guys to “market value” deals. At a certain point, when these contracts get so big, there has to be an intrinsic value to the player that justifies giving him a contract that in most cases is equal to 20% or more of the value of the entire franchise that he plays for. In what other industry are key employees without an equity stake in the business paid at levels which equate to 20% or more of the enterprise value of the business that they work for? I can’t think of one. I realize Sports are unique but in order for a player to be worth that much money, I think he has to be a guy who has proven that he can take you over the top and win a championship. In my opinion, neither Harper nor Machado have shown to date that they can be that type of player. You may disagree and that is fine but the guys who get paid to this for a living at the MLB level seem to have a view on these players that is a lot closer to mine than yours.

Nope. Different teams have different positional needs, different financial situations, etc.

The White Sox timed their rebuild targeting this free agent class in particular(Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Harper, Machado, Corbin, were all at one point going to be free agents this year) by shedding payroll and accruing prospect capital. That's why the Sox are "in" on these two players. Same with Philly and maybe SD.

The Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and other "rich" teams now have a CBT that they have to deal with that acts as an ipso facto salary cap. Sure they can bust through it if they choose, but they won't because of the overage taxes and eventual loss of draft picks if they are over it for 3+. Gone are the days of the Yankees and Red Sox buying the best players every offseason.

So you take the "rich" teams out, as well as the "poor teams" like Tampa Bay, Oakland, etc. as well as teams just starting their rebuild process like Seattle, Cleveland and others and you are left with the publicly known suitors for these teams, Sox, Philly and maybe SD. Why would Seattle, for instance, drop $300MM+ on Harper knowing they aren't ever going to win with him? Again, it's supple/demand.

If you argued that they're not signing crazy deals because baseball is f*cked heading into a new CBA then you'd be dead on. Arguing that teams don't view these players as building blocks because of their attitude or leadership is FAR from correct.

The Yankees discussed financial parameters with Machado and Lozano, but they wanted him at their price because they're going to have 4-5 guys that are up for long term extension in the coming years. Same with the Cubs with Baez, Bryant, Rizzo eventually, etc.

The White Sox have the ONLY official offer for either of these two on the table right now for Machado. Harper doesn't have an official offer. Machado is rightfully sitting on it, as he would do if the Sox had 10/$300MM on the table for him. If he has an offer banked, why sign immediately? Why not ride it out and see if another team bids it up? And the Sox won't move from the current offer they have on the table for him right now because they'd just be outbidding themselves. That'd be really, really bad negotiation on their end.

That's what's happening right now, and that's why there's a big stand still with these two. And this is before even mentioning neither Lozano or Boras want their client signing first.
 
Relentless workers? Are you kidding me? Machado in particular has made no bones about not believing in being a hustle player. He is a dog, low character player who has been a cancer on every team he has played on. Putting this in NU terms, Machado would be the type of high talent/low character player that FItz would not recruit to NU but Lovie would recruit to Illinois. The White Sox would be making a huge mistake to sign that guy as a cornerstone of their franchise, particularly with all the young impressionable young players they have coming up through their system.

I feel less strongly about Harper. My main beef with him is his inability to deliver and lead in the clutch. He is just not the guy I would pick to lead my team.

Sure seems like some "bones" in this interview: https://www.mlb.com/news/manny-machado-reflects-on-hustle-comments/c-301005690

"For me, I was trying to talk about how I'm not the guy who is eye wash. There's a difference between fake hustle for show and being someone who tries hard to win. I've always been the guy who does whatever he can to win for his team. But I know how I said it and how that came across, and it's something I take responsibility for. I look forward to talking with each GM and owner that we meet with about that, or any other questions they have."
 
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