OT:Jared Goff
- Thread starter mybrotha
- Start date
As your NCAA Football Director of scouting for the NFL, aka Todd McShakes, I will say that Goff is the only QB this worth a 1st round choice.
As of now, you may have a point, Shakes. So let me ask you this -- in the Book of Shakes, how bad will the Bears have to be in order to get him in the draft?
The Bears don't have to be bad. They just have to be themselves. Goff will be there for the taking.
That's a difficult question and I'm no NFL expert. I merely like the draft as an culmination of college football careers. I like looking at depth charts and free agents to determine what teams' needs are and then looking at the college players and determine who's the right fit.
The big question is, who are the bad teams, and what do they need. Let's say the worst teams are
Tampa Bay Jamies Winston
Tennessee Marcus Mariota
Jacksonville Blake Bortles
Miami Ryan Tannehill
San Francisco Collin Kapernick
Oakland Derek Carr
And let's say Cleveland is terrible, but Manziel plays late and does well.
Those teams aren't drafting a QB high (although I'm not a huge fan of Kapernick). In this case, I could see the first QB easily falling to 8 or 9 and going to 5-11 or 6-10 team. IF THERE ARE NO TRADES
Let's say the worst teams are:
New Orleans: Drew Brees given his age and NO desire to restart
Detroit: Matt Stafford might be his time to go be a backup elsewhere
Houston: Ryan Mallett
Kansas City: Alex Smith
Washington: Robert Griffin/Kirk Cousins
Philadelphia: Sam Bradford
New York Jets: Ryan Fitzpatrick/Geno Smith
Cleveland: Josh McCown and let's say Manziel looks bad too in this scenario
Any one of those teams could be wanting to take a QB early. You might be able to throw Minnesota, St Louis and Buffalo into that mix too. I don't see Goff getting past 4 or 5 as teams can trade up. So you're looking at 3-13 or 4-12.
There's also a strong chance that a dumb GM falls in love with Connor Cook, Hackenburg, or Prescott or Boykin (notice I said dumb GM) and Goff falls. Goff could easily be #1 overall so 2-14 or something like that.
At the top of the draft board, I'd have
Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole MIss
Laremy Tunsil OT Ole Miss
A'Sawn Robinson DT Alabama
Ronnie Stanley OT Notre Dame
Jack Conklin OT MSU
Vernon Hargreaves CB Florida
Joey Bosa DE OSU
If I were the bears, I would be looking at most of those guys over Goff. QBs are always a huge question mark and Cutler is not a bad Quarterback. He's not an elite QB, and the bears were stupid to pay him like an elite QB. As such, you can't build an elite team around him. If you pick up a rookie this draft and cut Cutler, you save yourself about 11 million in cap space (Cutler has 12.5 million base + 2.5 million roster bonus +1 million restructuring bonus - 5 million in cap space for rookie QB (Jamies is 4.6 million this year)). I'd rather see the Bears restructure Cutler to about 5 million dollar cap vs the salary cap and fix some of the many other issues to the team.
+1
QBs taken in the first round are crapshoots. At any one time there are about 5 elite QBs in the league and since they tend to last about 15 years or so it means one comes along every 3-4 years. THe only one I would have gone for in recent years is Andrew luck but for every one of them there are Tim Teboe's, RGIII and Ryan Leafs. For every one that succeeds, about 3 fail. And you put a lot of time and money into them that cannot be used elsewhere. And since you have so much into them you cannot afford to have them sitting. You have to play them before they are ready and most never develop. Plus if you are a bottom team able to get a top pick it means you have a lot of holes so you will have thi top QB and nothing else. A recipe for disaster.
Start building from the lines and take a guy with the about third round pick and develop him. You are not paying that much so you can take your time with them and if you have a solid OL, you will have a solid run game, a lot of QBs are going to be successful. Bears need so much that a new QB is not going to solve. Keep Cutler during that period of development and then dump him. (He is not elite but probably somewhere around 10-15 and the likelyhood of finding a gem is pretty slim) Even Rogers who is now elite probably would not have gotten there if he had been pressed into service.
Anytime you mention Jared Goff, it's only fair to mention his eternal nemesis -- Collin Ellis: 3 picks, I believe 3 TDs, and a guy who almost single-handedly won the game for us at Berkeley in 2013. A great Wildcat whose career was sadly cut short.
When you are as bereft of young talent as the Bears, you draft Best Player Available with every pick.
I wonder if the Texans jump on hackenberg - player, coach reunion and all. They look like they'll have a top 10 pick, maybe they wait it out to see if he drops to the second round (which I think he should, if not farther)
With Cal being 5-0, I don't think we have to worry to much about him unless he is a victim of alcohol poisoning from all the celebrating he has probably done.
Look I'm not saying Jared Goff is Droski but has anyone ever seen Goff and Droski in the same room?
hdhntr, you and Shakes are right, of course, in that the Bears need so much, you don't even know where to start. And I can't disagree about your numerical estimates for draft success with QB's. All I'm really saying is it'd just be nice for the Bears to actually HAVE one of those elite quarterbacks for once in my lifetime. Been following the Bears for 40 years and I haven't seen one yet.
Not saying NEVER, but teams rarely win Super Bowls (or at least threaten to) without elite or near-elite QBs. That said, though, Nkemdiche or Bosa would sure look good in midnight blue . . . . .I am just saying few if any are can't miss. And you have to have the system in place to develop them. And they really need time with the clipboard to develop. High draft picks end up having to be put on the field because those teams often have nothing else and they have so much investment in them.hdhntr, you and Shakes are right, of course, in that the Bears need so much, you don't even know where to start. And I can't disagree about your numerical estimates for draft success with QB's. All I'm really saying is it'd just be nice for the Bears to actually HAVE one of those elite quarterbacks for once in my lifetime. Been following the Bears for 40 years and I haven't seen one yet.
It has been made even more difficult to evaluate them since teams went to the spread and teams have gone for more athletes. That is why Luck was the only one I would have gone after.
You do not need an elite qb to win the Super Bowl. You do need a solid overall team and, especially if the D is strong, a solid game manager.. Russel Wilson, Trent Dillfer, Joe Flacco, Jeff Hostetller are examples. But a solid OL will make any qb look better. Good receivers as well. And getting an elite QB is generally chance and them falling into the right system. Top QBs now? Brady, Rogers, Luck, Manning?, who else?. Banking on getting one with a draft pick is grabbing for the brass ring and is a long shot. But building a solid OL and D are not.
