There will be consolidation between these two leagues following USC and UCLA leaving the Pac 12. The Pac 12 will likely remain and the Big 12 will likely cease to exist as a top tier conference.
The Pac 12 will likely pick up Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, with some combination of 2 from BYU/KU/KSU/TCU. I expect that KSU and BYU will join along with Baylor, TTU, OkSU and ISU, though TCU could replace BYU. KU is literally so bad at football that it will likely end up in a basketball conference regardless of what happens with the remnants of the Big 12, possibly the Big East.
The alternative reverse scenario would include Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah leaving the Pac, effectively dissolving it. This seems unlikely. There is enough of a center of gravity surrounding Stanford, Washington, and Oregon (far more than KU, for example) to allow the Pac to simply dissolve. It is far more likely that the remaining Texas schools sans TCU, OkSU and a handful of others will be going west.
The big losers in this round will likely include West Virginia for now, unless the ACC throws it an immediate lifeline during its own inevitable evolution to 16 teams (perhaps along with USF, Navy or Memphis), and whoever is left out among BYU/KU/KSU/TCU (likely KU and TCU). BYU might emerge as a big winner in this round, regaining an in-conference rivalry with Utah and significantly elevating its athletics profile. The Big 12, or what is left of it, will fall to the level of a "Group of 5" conference. It probably will pick up 6 teams from some combination of South Florida, Colorado State, Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, Memphis, Army, Navy, Tulsa, Tulane, SMU and Louisiana Tech. I expect that the new "Group of 5" Big 12 will feature USF, CSU, Memphis, Navy, Air Force and Army, and perhaps Fresno or Boise if the ACC adds USF or Memphis.
The MAC will likely emerge winners too, picking up MTSU and WKU, along with two other teams that did not make it into the Big 12. The dissolution of Conference USA will mean that the remaining teams will consolidate with the American and Mountain West Conferences.
The Pac 12 will likely pick up Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, with some combination of 2 from BYU/KU/KSU/TCU. I expect that KSU and BYU will join along with Baylor, TTU, OkSU and ISU, though TCU could replace BYU. KU is literally so bad at football that it will likely end up in a basketball conference regardless of what happens with the remnants of the Big 12, possibly the Big East.
The alternative reverse scenario would include Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah leaving the Pac, effectively dissolving it. This seems unlikely. There is enough of a center of gravity surrounding Stanford, Washington, and Oregon (far more than KU, for example) to allow the Pac to simply dissolve. It is far more likely that the remaining Texas schools sans TCU, OkSU and a handful of others will be going west.
The big losers in this round will likely include West Virginia for now, unless the ACC throws it an immediate lifeline during its own inevitable evolution to 16 teams (perhaps along with USF, Navy or Memphis), and whoever is left out among BYU/KU/KSU/TCU (likely KU and TCU). BYU might emerge as a big winner in this round, regaining an in-conference rivalry with Utah and significantly elevating its athletics profile. The Big 12, or what is left of it, will fall to the level of a "Group of 5" conference. It probably will pick up 6 teams from some combination of South Florida, Colorado State, Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, Memphis, Army, Navy, Tulsa, Tulane, SMU and Louisiana Tech. I expect that the new "Group of 5" Big 12 will feature USF, CSU, Memphis, Navy, Air Force and Army, and perhaps Fresno or Boise if the ACC adds USF or Memphis.
The MAC will likely emerge winners too, picking up MTSU and WKU, along with two other teams that did not make it into the Big 12. The dissolution of Conference USA will mean that the remaining teams will consolidate with the American and Mountain West Conferences.
