Penn State

[GatoLouco]

We are 1.5 pt favorites.

Easily covered by 2 banked 3 pointers and more miscellaneous weird shots they will hit against us. Guaranteed!

 

[NUCat320]

Don’t sleep on Penn State.

I haven’t watched them, so I have no insight.

Their top scorer, Kane Clary, was buried behind all that veteran leadership last season. His spiritual forebearer, Talor Battle, sits on NU’s bench. Clary is 5’11, a no-star prospect shooting 48% from the field. I have no recollection of this, but he went 5-10 from the field in the BTT OT loss. I hate him already.

Their point guard is Ace Baldwin, who followed coach Rhoades from VCU for his fourth season. He shoots 36% from the floor.

Srsly, don’t sleep on Penn State.

It is gross in State College today, I’m sure.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I don't think there is a team in the B1G that is a pushover. Maybe Rutgers. Nebraska and Minny are no longer pushovers. PSU is tough at home.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I don't think there is a team in the B1G that is a pushover. Maybe Rutgers. Nebraska and Minny are no longer pushovers. PSU is tough at home.

Rutgers just beat IU last night. No one is a pushover.

 

[Alvious]

We gotta have this one, but Penn St is our kryptonite. I feel strangely confident, so that means we're doomed.

 

[pschatz25]

Sleep on Penn State? Penn State is the last team we should be sleeping on. They've been consistently whooping us since they joined the conference. Currently we're on a five game losing streak against them and have lost 8 of the last 9. The last time we won in Happy Valley was 2018 (EDIT: Actually 2016, the 2018 win was in Rosemont). Collins has as many wins against Illinois as he does against Penn State (5).

 

[CappyNU]

Rutgers just beat IU last night. No one is a pushover.

To be fair, IU sucks. Rutgers was favored to win.

 

[NUCat320]

Sleep on Penn State? Penn State is the last team we should be sleeping on. They've been consistently whooping us since they joined the conference. Currently we're on a five game losing streak against them and have lost 8 of the last 9. The last time we won in Happy Valley was 2018. Collins has as many wins against Illinois as he does against Penn State (5).

I know. @FeralFelidae can fill you in.

 

[Hungry Jack]

Sleep on Penn State? Penn State is the last team we should be sleeping on. They've been consistently whooping us since they joined the conference. Currently we're on a five game losing streak against them and have lost 8 of the last 9. The last time we won in Happy Valley was 2018. Collins has as many wins against Illinois as he does against Penn State (5).

5 straight? That’s crazy. Those guards killed us.

 

[CappyNU]

Let's relive some misery:

3/10/2023 BTT - Ty Berry and Chase Audige combine to shoot 4-24, PSU beats us in OT by 2 where for 20 minutes their tallest player was 6'6".

3/1/2023 Home - NU shoots 41% from 3 and wins the turnover battle 13-5, but loses in OT by 3. PSU renders Nicholson unplayable by going small, plays 4 players essentially the entire game, and shoots 45% from 3. NU was up by 6 with 4:49 to play and scores 3 points in the remainder of regulation.

2/25/2022 Away - Chase Audige and Robbie Beran combine to shoot 3-20, some guy named Dallion Johnson scores a career-high 15 points on 5 3s, PSU's center grabs 20 rebounds. NU is up 5 with 7 minutes to play before giving up a 17-2 run over the next 6 minutes and loses by 7.

1/5/2022 Home - NU shoots 46% from 3 and leads by 10 with 9:37 to play, but gets torched by Seth Lundy and Jalen Pickett, combining for 41 points on 15-26 shooting as PSU scores 31 points in the final 10 minutes to win by 4.

1/23/2021 Away - NU shoots 42% from 3, but turns the ball over 14 times, is outrebounded 38-25, out-FT'd 26-12, and gives up a 10-0 run when they were leading by 4 with 4:24 to play to lose by 3. Chase Audige shoots 2-10.

3/7/2020 Home (The last win) - NU starts the game on a 16-2 run on senior day with Tino Malnati getting 3 rebounds, but blows the lead before halftime. NU can't shake PSU in the 2nd half until they go on a 17-2 run from 9:30 to 5:00 to put the game away early. Miller Kopp 🤮 is the MVP with 21 points.

2/15/2020 Away - Despite jumping out to a 5-0 lead, PSU gets their 20th win of the season after a 13-2 run in the middle of the 1st half puts them up by 16. They coasted on that lead for much of the second half, but NU goes on a 10-1 run to get back in the game with 5 minutes to go, only to surrender a 13-0 run to PSU, who ultimately ends up winning by 16.

2/4/2019 Home - NU starts the game on a 10-0 run, but Vic Law shoots 3-17 with 6 turnovers, everyone not named Dererk Pardon plays like garbage, and NU scores a mere 42 points in the remaining 59 possessions of the game to lose a very ugly contest by 7.

3/1/2018 BTT - A back-and-forth affair throughout the first 35 minutes, until PSU goes on a 13-0 run late to win by 8 and end NU's season. Vic Law doesn't play, BMac and Scottie Lindsey combine to shoot 7-25 (3-13 from 3), and PSU shoots 45% from 3.

1/20/2018 "Home" - PSU opens up with a 15-6 start, but NU battles back to take the lead late in the 1st half. PSU maintains a 4-6 point lead throughout most of the 2nd half, but NU closes out the game on a 15-2 run to win by 9. For once NU dominates on the boards, with 5 different players collecting at least 2 offensive rebounds.

1/5/2018 Away - PSU leads by double digits for most of the 1st half, NU gets within 3 in the 2nd, but can get no closer as PSU pulls away for a 15-point win. Scottie Lindsey shoots 3-17 including 0-6 from 2, BMac and Lindsey combine for 9 turnovers, and Dererk Pardon is a non-factor. Lamar Stevens scores a career-high 30 points for PSU on 14-19 shooting while Mike Watkins scores 18 with 17 rebounds.

12/27/2016 Away (The last win at PSU) - 4 minutes into the game NU goes on an 18-2 run, which gave them a lead that didn't drop below 13 until the final minute of the game, ultimately winning by 10. Scottie Lindsey dominates with 31 points on 9-14 shooting, BMac has 11 points and 8 assists, Vic Law has 12 points and 12 rebounds.

So yeah, the last win at PSU was in the 2017 season. We're 3-9 against them over the last 7 seasons in total, 5-11 against them under CCC, and 12-24 since Ed DeChellis first became their coach, including being their only Big Ten victory in 2005, going 0-3 against them in 2006, being 1 of their 2 conference victories in 2007, 2 of their 3 conference victories in 2010, going 0-5 against them in the first 3 NIT seasons, and being 1 of their 2 conference victories in 2013. They have ended our season in the BTT 3 times. We have beaten them twice in the same season exactly one time in the last 20 years - 2012.

We should not sleep on Penn State.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

The moderator should give CappyNU some time in the penalty box for that evil post.

 

[SDakaGordie]

To be fair, IU sucks. Rutgers was favored to win.

I would disagree with “sucks” and maintain my point that there are no pushovers. It’s easy to throw shade at teams not doing as well as planned. I’m no fan of Woodson, and don’t like how they play, so I think his team might underperform more than most teams. But, to me, an underperforming IU can still compete on most nights and win. See OSU win the game before and other examples in their 11-5 record.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The Nittany Lions had their coach, Micah Shrewsberry, head off to Notre Dame taking sophomore center Kebba Njie with him.
They lost 8 of their 9 top players.
Jalen Pickett, Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk all graduated and are playing professionally.
Camryn Winter, Miles Dread and Michael Henn graduated.
Evan Mahaffey transferred to Ohio State, where he starts as a sophomore.

So the Penn State basketball program essentially blew up.
They hired VCU's Mike Rhoades, inking a 7 year $24 million+ contract.
Rhoades was 129-61 at VCU, qualifying for 3 of the past 4 NCAA tournaments, with defense-minded teams.

"It's with great honor and excitement to be Penn State's Peter and Ann Tombros Endowed Men's Basketball Head Coach." said Rhoades.
Okay, that's not a sentence. And some obnoxious rich guy has obvious endowment issues... but I digress.

The sole returning player, Kanye Clary, is now the PSU leading scorer. He's 5'11" 195. Playing about 32-33 minutes per game. Usually more than 15 shots per game.
The other guard, "Ace" Baldwin, came with Rhoades from VCU. 6'1" 190. Last year's Atlantic 10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.
He's a gritty player - not a great shooter, but can light it up on the right night. Very active. 2.5 steals per game. Plays 33 minutes per game.
The PSU center is Qudus Wahab. 5th year senior. 6'11" 245. We played him last year vs. Georgetown. 8 points, 8 rebounds, 25 minutes recently for PSU.
D'Marco Dunn is a 6'5" 195 lb wing who averages about 20 minutes, 10 points and 2 rebounds. He transferred from North Carolina, where he played 10 minutes a game.
Puff Johnson also transferred from North Carolina, where he played maybe 13 minutes per game. 6'8" 205.
Zach Hicks has started all 15 games for Penn State, after transferring in from Temple. 6'8" 200 lbs. Not a great scorer. 24 minutes, 6 points, 3 boards.
Similar stats from Nick Kern, 6'6" 200lbs, who also came with Rhoades from VCU. Better rebounder than Hicks.
Leo O'Boyle, a red-haired transfer from Lafayette, rounds out the rotation. 6'7" 225 lbs. Grew up in Scranton, so he might get into it with Barnhizer.

NU will have a size advantage at center if Wahab has foul trouble, so we ought to go inside early.
We should win unless we can't defend against the PSU guards and they both get hot.
Something like 75-71 NU according to my computer, but I'd lean toward more points for each team.
Lately NU has been wildly erratic, with each of the last 4 games more than 10 points away from expected margin.

 

[SmellyCat]

If you took the 1992 Bulls, put Northwestern jerseys on them, and sent them to Penn State tonight, I still wouldn't sleep on Penn State.

 

[CappyNU]

The Nittany Lions had their coach, Micah Shrewsberry, head off to Notre Dame taking sophomore center Kebba Njie with him.
They lost 8 of their 9 top players.
Jalen Pickett, Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk all graduated and are playing professionally.
Camryn Winter, Miles Dread and Michael Henn graduated.
Evan Mahaffey transferred to Ohio State, where he starts as a sophomore.

So the Penn State basketball program essentially blew up.
They hired VCU's Mike Rhoades, inking a 7 year $24 million+ contract.
Rhoades was 129-61 at VCU, qualifying for 3 of the past 4 NCAA tournaments, with defense-minded teams.

"It's with great honor and excitement to be Penn State's Peter and Ann Tombros Endowed Men's Basketball Head Coach." said Rhoades.
Okay, that's not a sentence. And some obnoxious rich guy has obvious endowment issues... but I digress.

The sole returning player, Kanye Clary, is now the PSU leading scorer. He's 5'11" 195. Playing about 32-33 minutes per game. Usually more than 15 shots per game.
The other guard, "Ace" Baldwin, came with Rhoades from VCU. 6'1" 190. Last year's Atlantic 10 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.
He's a gritty player - not a great shooter, but can light it up on the right night. Very active. 2.5 steals per game. Plays 33 minutes per game.
The PSU center is Qudus Wahab. 5th year senior. 6'11" 245. We played him last year vs. Georgetown. 8 points, 8 rebounds, 25 minutes recently for PSU.
D'Marco Dunn is a 6'5" 195 lb wing who averages about 20 minutes, 10 points and 2 rebounds. He transferred from North Carolina, where he played 10 minutes a game.
Puff Johnson also transferred from North Carolina, where he played maybe 13 minutes per game. 6'8" 205.
Zach Hicks has started all 15 games for Penn State, after transferring in from Temple. 6'8" 200 lbs. Not a great scorer. 24 minutes, 6 points, 3 boards.
Similar stats from Nick Kern, 6'6" 200lbs, who also came with Rhoades from VCU. Better rebounder than Hicks.
Leo O'Boyle, a red-haired transfer from Lafayette, rounds out the rotation. 6'7" 225 lbs. Grew up in Scranton, so he might get into it with Barnhizer.

NU will have a size advantage at center if Wahab has foul trouble, so we ought to go inside early.
We should win unless we can't defend against the PSU guards and they both get hot.
Something like 75-71 NU according to my computer, but I'd lean toward more points for each team.
Lately NU has been wildly erratic, with each of the last 4 games more than 10 points away from expected margin.

PSU does have a backup C who is 6'10" who plays about 10 mpg when Wahab sits, but they also play about 8-10 mpg where their tallest player is 6'8".

Other fun fact about Wahab - this is the 3rd year we've played against him, and each time it's been a different team - Maryland in 2022, Georgetown in 2023, and now PSU this year.

 

[NUCat320]

@CappyNU , thanks. I didn’t read it all, but I did get to some guy named Dallon Johnson.

IIRC, that 2005 game — PSU’s only win — was NU’s lone conference game on ESPN/ESPN2, back in the pre-BTN ‘ESPN plus’ setup. Two awful teams went into double-OT, forcing fans of whichever watchable teams were playing next to just…embrace the suck as the Cats and Lions engaged in their pillow fight.

Pillows!? Don’t sleep on Penn State.

 

[Hungry Jack]

The law of reversion to the mean says we smoke PSU tonight. Enough of this craziness.

 

[TheC]

Without question the toughest game of the year tonight

 

[salukicat]

Its early but a NU win and Wisconsin loss tonight would put Northwestern in 3 way tie for Big Ten lead with Wisconsin and Minnesota at 3-1 each.

 

[CappyNU]

@CappyNU , thanks. I didn’t read it all, but I did get to some guy named Dallon Johnson.

IIRC, that 2005 game — PSU’s only win — was NU’s lone conference game on ESPN/ESPN2, back in the pre-BTN ‘ESPN plus’ setup. Two awful teams went into double-OT, forcing fans of whichever watchable teams were playing next to just…embrace the suck as the Cats and Lions engaged in their pillow fight.

Pillows!? Don’t sleep on Penn State.

Close, but you're thinking of the 2003 season. I remember it well from my freshman year, being at the game. It was our 3rd conference win of the season and the only one in which we didn't rush the court at the end.

As I was searching to try and figure out which game was scheduled after ours, I found this post from InsideNU that has the full history that no one ever needed to know: https://www.insidenu.com/2017/12/7/...thwestern-penn-state-2003-carmody-jitim-young

 

[NUCat320]

Close, but you're thinking of the 2003 season. I remember it well from my freshman year, being at the game. It was our 3rd conference win of the season and the only one in which we didn't rush the court at the end.

As I was searching to try and figure out which game was scheduled after ours, I found this post from InsideNU that has the full history that no one ever needed to know: https://www.insidenu.com/2017/12/7/...thwestern-penn-state-2003-carmody-jitim-young

Jagla! Chambliss! Blake! Perfect.

 

[EagerFan]

Man, I loved watching Jitim play. I'd forgotten that game existed. I was there and I don't remember any of it.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

Hunger could allow NU to capitalize on the height disparity unlike last year given he actually has the ability to score inside. In the event that PSU’s mobility finds holes in Hungers defense, it's comforting to know that Martinelli is not as much of a defensive liability as he was last year and can run the small ball line up. We all know Martinelli is very capable of scoring inside on the offensive end as well. I am also hopeful that Barnhizer can utilize his strength to score against a smaller lineup.

B1G road games are always challenging, particularly because PSU has historically had the upper hand against NU as Cappy's breakdown depressingly illustrated. The success of the team heavily relies on Langborg and Berry. Buie consistently keeps NU competitive, but it is crucial for Langborg and Berry to elevate their game and make this team tournament-worthy. When they are shooting well from outside, our team can compete with and defeat any opponent. However, when their shooting is off, NU requires some consistency from Barnhizer and an inside presence to withstand poor shooting streaks. Let us hope that Berry and/or Langborg are in top form tonight, and that we can secure another B1G victory to enhance our tournament resume. Go cats!

 

[CappyNU]

As if I didn't drive home the depression enough, I decided to put the PSU record into context over the last 20 years against other conference foes along with the average KenPom rank during those years. As you can see, the table largely goes in order of rank, with two glaring exceptions, who we happen to both be playing this week:

Team	Record	Avg KenPom rank	Record under CC	Avg KP under CC
Nebraska	12-6 (.667)	105.3	11-5 (.687)	97.6
Rutgers	8-7 (.533)	107.4	8-6 (.571)	111.3
Minnesota	20-19 (.513)	79.7	9-8 (.529)	90.4
Indiana	16-17 (.485)	59.2	8-8 (.500)	45.1
Iowa	14-22 (.389)	58.0	4-13 (.235)	34.8
PSU	12-24 (.333)	98.8	5-11 (.312)	64.2
Purdue	10-21 (.322)	39.5	3-11 (.214)	24.9
Wisconsin	9-24 (.278)	21.2	6-11 (.353)	28.6
Illinois	10-27 (.270)	45.3	5-13 (.278)	58.0
Michigan	9-25 (.265)	41.4	3-12 (.200)	25.9
Maryland	3-12 (.200)	36.8	3-11 (.214)	35.1
OSU	5-26 (.161)	31.1	4-10 (.286)	34.6
MSU	5-28 (.152)	20.3	3-12 (.200)	21.7

Wisconsin is the anti-PSU for us, given their history. NU under CCC has given Wisconsin 10.5% of their 38 losses at home during that time period, tied with MSU for most of any team. Wisconsin has not scored more than 60 points in any of those games.

 

[ThatkidfromHolland]

As if I didn't drive home the depression enough, I decided to put the PSU record into context over the last 20 years against other conference foes along with the average KenPom rank during those years. As you can see, the table largely goes in order of rank, with two glaring exceptions, who we happen to both be playing this week:

Team	Record	Avg KenPom rank
Nebraska	12-6	105.3
Rutgers	8-7	107.4
Minnesota	20-19	79.7
Indiana	16-17	59.2
Iowa	14-22	58.0
Purdue	10-21	39.5
PSU	12-24	98.8
Wisconsin	9-24	21.2
Illinois	10-27	45.3
Michigan	9-25	41.4
Maryland	3-12	36.8
OSU	5-26	31.1
MSU	5-28	20.3

Wisconsin is the anti-PSU for us, given their history. NU under CCC has given Wisconsin 10.5% of their 38 losses at home during that time period, tied with MSU for most of any team. Wisconsin has not scored more than 60 points in any of those games.

If it’s not too hard to compare what are CCC’s numbers vs these?

 

[CappyNU]

If it’s not too hard to compare what are CCC’s numbers vs these?

Edited previous post to add columns for just under CCC.

 

[Deeringfish]

The moderator should give CappyNU some time in the penalty box for that evil post.

I only read the first paragraph and couldn't go on.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

it's comforting to know that Martinelli is not as much of a defensive liability as he was last year

Over the final 10 games of last season, when Nick Martinelli was on the court for Northwestern, NU allowed points at pace of 57.5 points per 40 minutes. For Beran it was 64.2 points scored against per 40 minutes. For Audige it was 63.3.

In fact, in the final 10 games of the season, our opponents were least successful scoring when Martinelli was playing.

 

[Secho99]

Let's relive some misery:

A bunch of misery

We should not sleep on Penn State.

Counterpoint: 3/4/99 BTT. The ‘Cats end a 6-game losing streak to seal an NIT bid with a dreadful 54-44 win over PSU at a moribund United Center. Me and a couple other band members loudly chant “CRIIIIISSSSPPPIIINNNN” throughout the game as Joe Crispin throws up brick after brick, leading to him eventually looking over us and yelling “What the f**k? Why me?”

 

[GatoLouco]

Over the final 10 games of last season, when Nick Martinelli was on the court for Northwestern, NU allowed points at pace of 57.5 points per 40 minutes. For Beran it was 64.2 points scored against per 40 minutes. For Audige it was 63.3.

In fact, in the final 10 games of the season, our opponents were least successful scoring when Martinelli was playing.

I continue to be surprised at the perception people had of Beran. When we lost in Champaign last week there were a couple of mentions that we missed him. When, in reality, as the season came to an end he was playing less and less minutes. Barnhizer was clearly the man.

 

[NUThump]

Easily covered by 2 banked 3 pointers and more miscellaneous weird shots they will hit against us. Guaranteed!

The 2 banked shots weren’t 3 pointers, but I am giving you credit for a correct prediction anyway. Nice call.

 

[GatoLouco]

The 2 banked shots weren’t 3 pointers, but I am giving you credit for a correct prediction anyway. Nice call.

We covered the spread. Never a doubt!

 

[hdhntr1]

I don't think there is a team in the B1G that is a pushover. Maybe Rutgers. Nebraska and Minny are no longer pushovers. PSU is tough at home.

Rutgers looked plenty tough with that D over the weekend

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Something like 75-71 NU according to my computer, but I'd lean toward more points for each team.

You're welcome.

 

[NUCat320]

Wisconsin slept on Penn State.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Wisconsin slept on Penn State.

They couldn't stop the two PSU guards from slicing them up.

 

[EagerFan]

Wisconsin out-rebounded PSU by 11, had more assists, and shot/made more free throws, but those turn-overs...

 

[Catreporter]

PSU's two guards were red hot the entire game (shot 18 for 31). Amazing stamina with the minutes they have to log.